INTO LectureDr Frank O’Donnell

RUSSIAFOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

PERSPECTIVES AND APPROACHES

STRUCTURE OF PRESENTATION:

Russian WorldviewsOutlook: Politics, Economics, MilitaryApproaches toward EuropeApproaches toward Central AsiaApproaches toward ChinaConclusion

INTRODUCTION

Russian “Buk” SAM system, suspected of shooting down MH17 passenger airplane, July 2014

LEARNING OUTCOMES

Kremlin, Moscow

• Understand Russian worldviews and how this generates foreign and defence policy behaviour

• Analyse political, economic and military challenges facing Russia and its current responses

• Evaluate Russia’s future prospects and current Western policies toward Russia

Russia is a Great Power Desire to be seen as sitting at same top table as US,

involved in same global issues as US. “Regards the US as the geopolitical status benchmark

against which it judges its own success or failure” (Chatham House report, 2015)

Non-intervention in other state crisesProtector of Russian citizens wherever they

may be locatedPreference for a multipolar worldDissatisfaction with current Russian borders

2014 poll: 58% of Russia’s citizens think its borders should expand

RUSSIAN WORLDVIEWS: I

Finally:

Deep-seated fear of NATO and its present and future intentions

RUSSIAN WORLDVIEWS: II

(Freedman, 1985)

POLITICS No real experience of democracy Brief Yeltsin democratic period of 1990s perceived as

chaos, Western penetration, loss of international status Gradual return to dictatorship under Putin, 2000-

presentECONOMICS

7th largest global economy, pop. 142m Dependent on large oil and gas reserves

Oil and gas income accounted for 50% of federal budget in 2013

Declining population Russian government predicts working-age population

could decline by 30% from 2005-2025

OUTLOOK: POLITICS AND ECONOMICS

4 th largest global defence budget

4 th largest military by headcount (771,000 est. 2015)

Still a fi rst-rank military in terms of technology

2010 Russia military doctrine emphasises risk from NATO, role of nuclear weapons in Russian defence

Clear interest in hybrid warfare, cyber warfare

However: “systemic corruption” (US

Congressional Research Service, 2015)

OUTLOOK: MILITARY

RS-24 nuclear intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM)

Keep NATO and EU divided Misuse of NATO-Russia council Energy diplomacy with individual

EU states

Achieve dominance, if not control, over post-Soviet states Resist pro-democratic revolutions,

which Moscow sees as Western plots

Prevent further NATO and EU expansion eastward Georgia war, 2008 Ukraine invasion, 2014-present

APPROACHES TOWARD EUROPE

Map of Georgia following 2008 war with Russia, with Abkhazia and South Ossetia regions under effective Russian control

Achieve Russian dominance, if not control, over Central Asian states

Regional institutions to manage this: Commonwealth of

Independent States (CIS)

Collective Security Treat Organisation (CSTO)

Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO)

APPROACHES TOWARD CENTRAL ASIA

APPROACHES TOWARD CHINA

Avoid economic dependence on China

Avoid being eclipsed by China as great power

Demographic challenge, especially in Russian Far East: Potential de facto loss of

territory to China 6.3m total Russian population

in Far East Border offi cial: 1.5m Chinese

illegally immigrated to Far East from Jan 2013-June 2014

1st Approach: Containment but limited cooperation where possible Kissinger, “Détente” approach,

1969-77 Obama administration, 2008-

2012

2nd Approach: Rollback and aggressive pressure Reagan administration, 1980-88 Obama administration, 2012-

present

WESTERN APPROACHES TOWARD RUSSIA

LEARNING OUTCOMES

Kremlin, Moscow

• Understand Russian worldviews and how this generates foreign and defence policy behaviour

• Analyse political, economic and military challenges facing Russia and its current responses

• Evaluate Russia’s future prospects and current Western policies toward Russia

QUESTIONS?

Slides and reference texts available at:

tinyurl.com/intoslides