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8/8/2019 Interview on Newspaper Extinction Timeline in Gulf News
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44 Thursday, November 11, 2010 GULF NEWS
A f’ ace: Neae nee a exn caabe n ne a
CONNECTION
By Douglas Okasaki
Senior Designer
The extinctiontimeline
According to the predictions of futurist Ross Daw-son, we can be guaranteed newspaper jobs in theUAE until at least 2030. He has created a map to
serve as a timeline of the eventual demise of print me-dia worldwide. The map indicates newspapers will be“insignificant” in 52 countries by 2040; in USA the dateis near 2017, it’s 2019 for England, 2034 for Saudi Arabiaand 2040 for India.In a exclusive interview, Ross answered five questions:
In contrast with America, Middle East andAsia newspapers are still doing good busi-ness. What’s your opinion about the future fornewspapers in these regions?As suggested in my Newspaper Extinction Time-
line, there is a wide divergence in the success of news-papers around the world. In many countries, newspapercirculation and revenue are increasing. In time, thesame forces that are making newspapers struggle incountries such as the US and UK will apply, but thesechallenges could be many years away.
Do you think there a way to revitalise news-papers and save them fromextinction?The future of the global economy
will be largely centred on media in thebroadest sense. The media organisa-tions of today, such as newspapers,are well positioned to take advantageof that, in creating and editing con-tent, and tapping large audienc-es. The challenge will be totake existing capabilitiesand apply them in newways. The path forwardfor every newspaper willbe different.
Do you still readnewspapers? If so
which ones rate asfavourites?I never buy newspapers,and only read them if they are in an airportlounge, coffee shop, orhotel. However if they arearound, I enjoy readingmany papers, such as New York Times, Financial Times,or Le Monde.
What is your advice for newspapers in regionslike the Middle East and Asia where print me-dia are still strong?Many newspapers are threatened today because
they didn’t fundamentally change their business evenwhen the writing was on the wall years ago. Thosenewspapers in parts of the world where the industryis doing better will in turn hit the wall and collapse intime if they don’t start changing today. The imperativeis to build new channels, reposition, and shift for thereality of a changing world.
What comes next? After the internet and so-cial networking, is there anything more to be
discovered in the media world?Some of the emerging trends in media are reputa-tion measures for media organisations and individualjournalists, the social curation of news to give insightsthat are uniquely relevant to us, building new transac-tion-based revenue models, and media becoming a realhub for communities in a way that we still rarely seetoday. Media will dominate the economy, and in manyways be barely recognisable from the industry we seetoday.
United Arab Emirates 2030Germany, Estonia 2030Japan, Metro China 2031Hungary, Lithuania 2032Latvia, Metro Mexico 2033Serbia, Saudi Arabia 2034Bulgaria, Chile, Uruguay 2035Russia, Turkey 2036Metro South Africa, Thailand 2037Mongolia 2038Argentina 2039Rest of the world 2040+
USA 2017UK, Iceland 2019Canada, Norway 2020Finland, Singapore, Greenland 2021Australia, Hong Kong 2022Denmark 2023New Zealand, Spain, Czech, Taiwan 2024Poland, Sweden, Switzerland 2025South Korea, Metro Russia, Belgium 2026Netherlands, Ireland, Metro Brazil, Italy 2027Austria, Slovakia, Greece, Portugal, U.A.E. 2028France, Israel, Malaysia, Croatia 2029
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Ross Dawson is recognised as aleading futurist, entrepreneur, key-note speaker, strategy adviser, andbest-selling author and consult toleading organisations worldwide
such as Ernst & Young, MacquarieBank, Microsoft, News Corpora-tion, Procter & Gamble and manyothers. Ross was recently named byDigital Media magazine as one ofthe 40 biggest players in Austral-ia’s digital age.
Source: Ross Dawson
THE DATE
Source: Mediabistro.com
17NOVEMBER
http://www.futureexploration.net/Newspaper_Extinction_Timeline.pdf
Jimmy Kimmel used last week’s episode of his Jimmy Kimmel Liveshow to declare November 17, 2010 National UnFriend Day [NUD] — anew holiday he hopes will inspire Facebook users to unfriend the socialnetworking contacts that aren’t real friends. Late night talk show hostJimmy Kimmel believes Facebook is lessening the meaning of friend-ship. “NUD is the international day when all Facebook users shallprotect the sacred nature of friendship by cutting out any ‘friend fat’ ontheir pages occupied by people who are not truly their friends,” accord-ing to the show’s website.
UnFriend day
Stripes indicate thatnewspapers will beextinct in metropolitanareas before regionalareas
Me & Mrketng
By Scott Shuey
Business Features Editor
Dubai Thompson Reutershas joined the bandwagonof companies using cloudcomputing and social net-working.
The company’s latestproduct, launched in theMiddle East on Sunday atthe Burj Khalifa, is a small(70MB) downloadable ap-plication that providesfinancial information,videos, trading tools andother functionality in web-browser like environment.
Ten-year lifecycle
Allan McNichol, the glo-bal head of the company’sDesktop Platform Groupsaid the product, calledEikon (pronounced Icon)
was an attempt to simplifythe deployment of Reuters’software and provide a greatout-of-the-box experience.
“This will keep our bestfoot in front of our custom-ers,” he said.
The application had beenin development for three
years and would likely havea 10-year lifecycle, he added.No information was re-leased regarding the invest-ment Thompson Reutersmade in the software.
Unlike other cloud offersor other financial informa-tion found on the Internet,Eikon will offer exclusivecontent, said Basil Moftah,the company’s head of Rap-idly Developing economies.
“You can go to Googleand Yahoo and find someof the same informationthere because we give it tothem, but we will also of-fer our high value contentthrough Eikon,” he said,adding that such contentwould include data such ascompany profiles.
Eikon recently finishedbeta-testing, which in-
cluded some firms in theMiddle East. Mofrah sayshe expects faster growth inemerging economies than inmature economies. A totalof 23 partners and financialinstitutions in the MiddleEast have signed up and arecurrently using Eikon.
Thompson Reuters joins cloud club withnew applicationEkn ben e b 23 ane n he en
Bbe
On air
Charles ‘Chase’ Carey, president and chief operating officer of News Corp, said he was eager to clear up what he thinks are misperceptions about thelongest blackout for such a large customer group in at least a decade.
News Corp, smarting from TVblackout, lashes at politiciansNew York (Bloomberg) NewsCorp’s Chase Carey, theman who oversaw Fox’stalks with Cablevision Sys-tems during a two-weekblackout, has advice forgovernment officials whowant to keep more TVchannels from going dark:Stop meddling.
News Corp last monthcut off World Series gamesand shows including Glee to Cablevision's three mil-lion customers after thetwo sides couldn’t agreeon how much Cablevisionshould pay Fox.
One problem, Carey said,was that the governmentwasn’t clear about whetherit would intervene, lead-ing Cablevision to think
it might get better termsif it held out until the USweighed in.
“This process wouldhave been resolved moreeasily, more quickly,” saidCarey, chief operating of-ficer and second-in-com-mand to Rupert Murdoch.“I would actually contendwe wouldn’t have gone off the air at all.”
Consumer wrathClashes between media
and cable companies areon the rise as broadcasterssuch as Fox and Walt Dis-ney’s ABC ask to be paidfor programming that usedto be free. The number of TV blackouts this year isthe most in at least a dec-
ade, triggering consumerwrath and lawmaker scru-tiny.
Carey, 56, spoke dur-ing an interview at NewsCorp’s New York head-quarters, in a wood-pan-elled, windowless roombarely large enough for anoversized conference ta-ble. He said he was eager toclear up what he thinks aremisperceptions about thelongest blackout for such alarge customer group in atleast a decade.
“This wasn’t a good expe-rience,” Carey said. “Every-body here found this reallypainful.”
News Corp, controlled byChairman and CEO Mur-doch, fell 5 cents to $14.28
on the Nasdaq Stock Mar-ket in New York on Tues-day. Cablevision rose 1 centto $29.33 in New York StockExchange composite trad-ing. News Corp has gained4.3 per cent this year, whileCablevision added 38 percent.
Cablevision declinedto make anyone availablefor comment. A spokes-man referred to a confer-ence call last week, whenChief Operating OfficerTom Rutledge said the USFederal CommunicationsCommission should pre-vent broadcasters fromcutting off programmingto obtain negotiating lever-age.
Senator John Kerry says
he plans to introduce abill when Congress recon-venes next week to keepcompanies from pullingsignals before regula-tors check for good-faithnegotiations. The Mas-sachusetts Democrat ischairman of the commu-nications, internet andtechnology subcommitteeof the Senate CommerceCommittee, which plansto hold a hearing on theissue.
“They’re very high-pro-file battles because it canturn into the politicians’constituents losing theirTV service,” David Joyce,an analyst with Miller,Tabak & Co. in New York,said in an interview.
govErNmENt dilly-dAllyiNg worsENEd A prEvENtABlE situAtioN
Facebookdraws 23%of web adsWashington Facebook has be-come an online advertisingmagnet, capturing the great-est number of display ads of any internet publishing site
in the third quarter, accord-ing to ComScore.
In the third quarter, Face-book grabbed 23 per cent of internet display ads, or 297billion ad impressions, morethan the combined displayads on Yahoo, Microsoft,Fox and Google sites.
But that doesn’t meanFacebook made the mostmoney from display ads, theComScore report says.
The growth in advertis-ing shows the value of Fa-cebook’s social network toadvertisers who want totailor ads to users who areconstantly feeding new in-formation about themselvesto the site. Facebook saysit doesn’t share person-ally identifiable informationabout its users.
Lawmakers have intro-
duced laws that could curban advertiser’s ability toserve up ads based on in-ternet user activity. (Disclo-sure: Washington Post Co.Chairman Donald Grahamis a member of Facebook’sboard.) Facebook ads aregenerally cheaper than dis-play ads sold on traditionalweb portals such as Yahoo,according to Evercore Part-ners analyst Ken Sena in areport by Reuters.
One industry source saidYahoo is known to makethe most from online dis-play ads. The effective costper thousand impressions,or CPM, for Facebook’s USdisplay ads is roughly $1(Dh3.67), compared withthe $3 CPM for display adson Yahoo’s family of web-sites in the United States,Sena said.
Overall, the online adver-tising display market is up22 per cent compared with ayear ago. Jeff Hackett, Com-Score’s senior vice presi-dent, said in a news releasethat the growth comes fromthe ability to target ads.
— Washington Post
S Ocia L ME dia
Continued advert growthpredicted by Mediaset
Milan (Reuters) Italy’s topcommercial broadcasterMediaset has forecast con-tinued growth for the restof 2010 after higher adver-
tising sales and the firstquarterly pay-TV operatingprofit lifted its nine-monthearnings.
The group, controlled byPrime Minister Silvio Ber-lusconi, confirmed its fore-cast for its Italian advertis-ing sales to rise nearly fiveper cent this year but gaveno precise forecast on 2011.
“Estimates show a poten-
tial 2-4 per cent growth forTV in Italy in 2011. I imag-ine this range is reliablebut at present we don’thave visibility to make a
forecast,” Luigi Colombo,chief executive of its Ital-ian advertising unit, saidon a conference call.
Mediaset said its pay-TV unit Mediaset Pre-mium reached operatingbreakeven in the ninemonths, which implies aquarterly profit of aroundeight million euros (Dh40.4million), an analyst said.
iTaLY
Feca afe e n ae, hhe eann
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