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INTERTANKOAthens Tanker Event
13 April 2005
Odd Anker Hassel
Director, CERA
CONFIDENTIAL©2005, Cambridge Energy Research Associates, Inc., 55 Cambridge Parkway, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02142No portion of this presentation may be reproduced in any form without prior written consent
The Big Picture
?
4
Source: Cambridge Energy Research Associates.10602-10
Geopolitical Key Uncertainties
Deliver a HigherStandard of Living?
Distribute Wealth"Fairly"?
Uphold National/Cultural Identity?
Care for theEnvironment ?
Cope withDemographic Change?
5
Oil Supply and DemandThe Global Perspective
Source: Cambridge Energy Research Associates.20708-3
Russia
China
Caspian RegionWest Africa
Coastal States
India
Brazil
Venezuela
Supply Growth
Demand Growth
Supply and Demand growth
Canada
US
MiddleEast
6
Structural Changes in the Oil Market
Driven by Geopolitics, Market Conditions and Price Expectations
Source: Cambridge Energy Research Associates.50305-5
PERCEPTIONSABOUT
THE FUTURE
Structural change is when one or more elements of demand andsupply deviates on a sustained basis from past trends.
• Pace of growth• Composition of demand• Geography of growth
• Geographic distribution of capacity• Costs• Fiscal Terms• Defend cash flow
DEMAND
SUPPLY
Perceptions can affect theintensity or pace of structural
change because of the influencethat perception has on behavior.
7
Driving Forces for Renewables
Source: Cambridge Energy Research Associates.30306-46
Climate Changeand Pollution
Reduction
Energy Security andFuel Diversity
End-user Demand
ImprovingTechnology
and Economics
8
New Technologies—A New Perspective on Energy Security
Wind Solar Forests Fuel Cells
Hybrid Cars Hydro Resources Garbage/WasteTechnologies
New Technologiesof Use
New BatteryTechnology
DistributedEnergy
30116-10
Source: IEA, Cambridge Energy Research Associates.
9
Source: Cambridge Energy Research Associates.40408-9
Two Realities of Tomorrow’s World
Two generations of people and technology are needed to affect the change
Until then we’ll use hydrocarbons—but how?
10
Source: Cambridge Energy Research Associates.40408-12
Tomorrow’s Energy World
Market Forces
New Technologies
Policy Changes
Lifestyle Changes
The energy market basket will undergo a decades-long transitionfrom primary dependence on hydrocarbons to sustainable development
Refinement of CurrentProduction, Delivery,and Use
11
Source: Cambridge Energy Research Associates.10602-9
Predertermined Elements
Middle EastMaintains a KeyRole in the OilMarket
Shifting Demo-graphics AffectEnergy DemandPatterns
EnvironmentalRegulationsContinue toTighten
13:11
12
Source: Cambridge Energy Research Associates.10602-8
Driving Forces
EconomicGrowth
TechnologicalInnovations
Privatization and Influenceof Competitive Markets
13
Source: Cambridge Energy Research Associates.10602-6
Energy Industry Key Uncertainties
Pace and ScopeOf Environmental
Regulations
Engine
Fuel Tank
Electric Motor/Controller
BatteriesTransmission
Advances inVehicle and Fuel
Technologies
Mpg
Rate and Natureof Efficiency Gains
Pace of International Natural Gas Infrastructure
Development
If you have any questions about this presentation orCERA in general, please feel free to contact
Odd Anker HasselDirector
BeijingOakland, CAWashington, DC
Cambridge, MA
Calgary
Mexico City
São Paulo
Paris
OsloMoscow
55 Cambridge ParkwayCambridge, Massachusetts 02142, USA
www.cera.com
