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Interreg IIIB Measure 3: Co-operation in the field of natural risks
METEORISK - An Alpine wide project to enhance collaboration between weather services
Folie 2
John Kenneth Galbraith: convential wisdom
(The Affluent Society 1958)
“We associate truth with convenience, with what most closely accords with self-interest and personal well-being or promises best to avoid awkward effort or unwelcome dislocation of life. We also find highly acceptable what contributes most to self-esteem.”
Economic and social behavior, are complex, and to comprehend their character is mentally tiring. Therefore we adhere, as through to a raft, to those ideas which represent our understanding.”
Folie 3
convential wisdom – weather risks?
Basis for a risk analysis:
which groups are familiar with these risks:
Thunderstorms / floodings / storms / heat waves . . . .
tourists local population professionals (mountain guides, civil protection)
Folie 4
convential wisdom – weather risks?
risk analysis
which groups are familiar with these risks:
Thunderstorms / floodings / storms / heat waves
tourists local population professionals (mountain guides, civil protection)
very extreme events often surprise all groups!
Folie 5
What and how should warnings be?
Warnings often fail to reach the people concerned
Reactions to warnings are not appropriate
Folie 6
What and how should warnings be?
Warnings often fail to reach the people concerned
distribution too low due to technical & organisational handicaps false alarm rate too high unclear systems (danger levels)
Reactions to warnings are not appropriate
Folie 7
What and how should warnings be?
Warnings often fail to reach the people concerned
unclear systems (services involved, danger levels) false alarm rate too high distribution too low due to technical & organisational handicaps
Reactions to warnings are not appropriate no emotional impact no clear advice no „know how“ about the consequences of extreme situations
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What and how should warnings be?
Folie 9
Is everybody neutral?
False alarm rate & probability of detection (Haechler 2003)
POD 1
FAR 1
x x x x x x
x x x x x x
(now)
(future)
Folie 10
Is everybody neutral?
False alarm rate & probability of detection
POD 1
FAR 1
x x x x x x
x x x x x x
(now)
(future)XXXXXX(media, other services)
Folie 11
Why and how should Weather services cooperate?
Fractioned producers / users in Europe and the Alps
unproportional high number of user live in boarder aereas
and hear warnings from neighbouring services
Coordinated warnings reduce the FAR and increase the POD
Commonly used warning systems draw more public attention
Communities in certain areas (like the Alps) develop strong
common sense about natural dangers (conventional wisdom)
Folie 12
Is language a problem?
Yes! e.g.
12 words in order of arousal strength (Wolgater and Silver 95)
Note Notice Prevent Alert Alarm Harmful Warning Urgent Severe Poison Fatal Deadly
Folie 13
What and how should warnings be?
Suggestions:
danger levels as uniform as possible (Alpine, EU wide)
Folie 14
What and how should warnings be?
Suggestions:
danger levels as uniform as possible (Alpine, EU wide)
danger levels damage orientated (earthquake scales)
Folie 15
What and how should warnings be?
Suggestions:
danger levels as uniform as possible (Alpine, EU wide)
danger levels damage orientated (earthquake scales)
distribution responding to customer preferences and possibilities
Folie 16
What and how should warnings be?
Suggestions:
danger levels as uniform as possible (Alpine, EU wide)
danger levels damage orientated (earthquake scales)
distribution responding to customer preferences and possibilities
parallel to the warnings structured PR work and offers for learning
Folie 17
What and how should warnings be?
Suggestions:
danger levels as uniform as possible (Alpine, EU wide)
danger levels damage orientated (earthquake scales)
distribution responding to customer preferences and possibilities
parallel to the warnings structured PR work and offers for learning
clear interfaces with other services in case of indirect meteorological dangers
Folie 18
What could METEORISK contribute?
• Homogenisation of forecasting work (warning levels etc.)
• Seminars and real time exchange of forecaster Know How
• Densification of observation network
• Common interpretation of model output
• Improved information of civil protection authorities
• Improved information of the public
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Forecasting extreme weather
Severe weatherphenomena
in e.g. 24h
Weather service
Observations Forecasts
Civ. prot. / other servicesauthorities / media
recommendations
Society /
/ Behaviour
Folie 20
coping with extreme weather
Severe weatherphenomena
present
Weather service
Observations Forecasts
Society
Damages / Behaviour
Civ. prot. / other servicesauthorities / media
recommendations
Folie 21
Standardisation of alarm levels
Area related treshholds (e.g. wind in cities)
How often / extreme?
Damage What to do?
green - - - no danger
yellow > 60 km/h > 10 per year exposed objects
be alert
orange > 80 km/h 2-10 per year frequent damages
be very alert
red >100 km/h less or 1 per year
large scale damages
follow the advice
of authorities
Folie 22
Common observational network
Folie 23
Visualisation software
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Exchange of CERAD - external radar data
Folie 25
forecasters discussion forum
Folie 26
forecasters discussion forum
Folie 27
Comparison of model behaviour (P. Bertolotto)
Folie 28
GIS tool
SOLUTION 1
SOLUTION 2 SOLUTION 3
METEORISK
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GIS tool
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Statistical tool
Rain: ~2378Snow: ~1643Shortrain: ~ 420
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Statistical tool
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Statistical tool
1 day period
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Statistical tool
1 day period
15 day period
Folie 34
Homogenisation of forecasting work
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Internal – external communication
Questions / problems:
• How can individually structured weather services be coordinated?
• How can user requirements be integrated?
(civil prot. – media – public)
• PR work is necessary inside and outside the net
• warnings (alert levels) have to be clear and concise enough
Folie 36
Internal – external communication
• was it all worth it?
The enemy of conventional wisdom is not ideas, but the march of events
(K. Galbraith 1958)
Folie 37
Internal – external communication
• Answers
• METEORISK brought more attention to individual weather services and the meteorological community
• links to NMS proved to be succesful
• homogenized individual informations for different user groups were feasible
Folie 38
Resume
Folie 39
Resume
make best use of all the data!