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Interpreting the Interpreting the Scottish Index of Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation Multiple Deprivation 2009 2009 Presentation to SCOTSTAT Presentation to SCOTSTAT Small Area Statistics event, Small Area Statistics event, 5 5 th th October 2010 October 2010 James Arnott James Arnott Development & Regeneration Services Development & Regeneration Services Glasgow City Council Glasgow City Council

Interpreting the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation 2009 Presentation to SCOTSTAT Small Area Statistics event, 5 th October 2010 James Arnott Development

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Page 1: Interpreting the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation 2009 Presentation to SCOTSTAT Small Area Statistics event, 5 th October 2010 James Arnott Development

Interpreting the Scottish Interpreting the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation Index of Multiple Deprivation

20092009

Presentation to SCOTSTAT Small Presentation to SCOTSTAT Small Area Statistics event, 5Area Statistics event, 5thth October October

20102010

James ArnottJames ArnottDevelopment & Regeneration ServicesDevelopment & Regeneration Services

Glasgow City CouncilGlasgow City Council

Page 2: Interpreting the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation 2009 Presentation to SCOTSTAT Small Area Statistics event, 5 th October 2010 James Arnott Development

Scottish Government AnalysisScottish Government Analysis

Improvements in GlasgowImprovements in Glasgow Concentrations of multiple deprivation Concentrations of multiple deprivation

becoming more spread out geographicallybecoming more spread out geographically Concentrations of deprivation in the most Concentrations of deprivation in the most

deprived datazones reduced slightlydeprived datazones reduced slightly Most datazones moving out of 15% 2004-Most datazones moving out of 15% 2004-

06 remained out in 0906 remained out in 09 Most datazones in 15% in 09 also in 15% Most datazones in 15% in 09 also in 15%

in 04 & 06in 04 & 06

Page 3: Interpreting the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation 2009 Presentation to SCOTSTAT Small Area Statistics event, 5 th October 2010 James Arnott Development

Glasgow: Datazones in Bottom Glasgow: Datazones in Bottom 15%15%

No. DZsNo. DZs PopulatioPopulationn

% City% City

SIMD SIMD 20042004

374374 307,997307,997 53.3%53.3%

SIMD SIMD 20062006

330330 269,539269,539 46.7%46.7%

SIMD SIMD 20092009

301301 244,587244,587 41.9%41.9%

Page 4: Interpreting the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation 2009 Presentation to SCOTSTAT Small Area Statistics event, 5 th October 2010 James Arnott Development

20042004 20062006 20092009 ChangeChange

1%-15%1%-15% 307,997307,997 269,539269,539 244,587244,587 -20.6%-20.6%

16%-16%-50%50%

150,636150,636 162,641162,641 181,711181,711 +20.6%+20.6%

51%-51%-100%100%

119,236119,236 145,490145,490 157,942157,942 +32.5%+32.5%

Glasgow Population by SIMD Category

Page 5: Interpreting the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation 2009 Presentation to SCOTSTAT Small Area Statistics event, 5 th October 2010 James Arnott Development

Further Development of Further Development of AnalysisAnalysis

Identification of other categoriesIdentification of other categories 1%-5% persistent deprivation1%-5% persistent deprivation Moving out of the 1% to 15% Moving out of the 1% to 15%

categorycategory From the 16%-50% to 51%-100% From the 16%-50% to 51%-100%

categoriescategories Large moves within categoriesLarge moves within categories

Page 6: Interpreting the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation 2009 Presentation to SCOTSTAT Small Area Statistics event, 5 th October 2010 James Arnott Development

Area TypeArea Type Pop.Pop. % Total% Total Change Change 04-0904-09

Into 16%-50%Into 16%-50% 62,36662,366 10.7%10.7% +1.5%+1.5%

Into 51%-100%Into 51%-100% 38,32338,323 6.6%6.6% +13.0%+13.0%

Remaining 1%-Remaining 1%-5%5%

113,727113,727 19.5%19.5% -3.3%-3.3%

Gaining PositionGaining Position 91,36391,363 15.6%15.6% +6.0%+6.0%

Losing PositionLosing Position 39,68139,681 6.8%6.8% -2.8%-2.8%

Page 7: Interpreting the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation 2009 Presentation to SCOTSTAT Small Area Statistics event, 5 th October 2010 James Arnott Development

Issues ArisingIssues Arising

Drivers of change Drivers of change Areas of persistent deprivationAreas of persistent deprivation DisplacementDisplacement Increasing inequalities: within the Increasing inequalities: within the

1%-15% category; between the 1%-1%-15% category; between the 1%-15% and 16%-100%15% and 16%-100%

Which policy to reduce deprivationWhich policy to reduce deprivation

Page 8: Interpreting the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation 2009 Presentation to SCOTSTAT Small Area Statistics event, 5 th October 2010 James Arnott Development

CaveatsCaveats

Measure of deprivation not overall Measure of deprivation not overall prosperity: increasingly measures prosperity: increasingly measures absence not presenceabsence not presence

Possibility of exaggerating the Possibility of exaggerating the significance of small reductions in significance of small reductions in deprivationdeprivation

Difference between datazone Difference between datazone boundaries and natural communitiesboundaries and natural communities

Page 9: Interpreting the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation 2009 Presentation to SCOTSTAT Small Area Statistics event, 5 th October 2010 James Arnott Development

OutcomesOutcomes

Ability of the city to maintain Ability of the city to maintain reductions in deprivationreductions in deprivation

Designing a suitable approach Designing a suitable approach towards monitoringtowards monitoring

Turning the focus towards specific Turning the focus towards specific communitiescommunities

Page 10: Interpreting the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation 2009 Presentation to SCOTSTAT Small Area Statistics event, 5 th October 2010 James Arnott Development
Page 11: Interpreting the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation 2009 Presentation to SCOTSTAT Small Area Statistics event, 5 th October 2010 James Arnott Development

Next StepsNext Steps

Weathervane areas combining Weathervane areas combining deprivation with stability and deprivation with stability and improvementimprovement

Combine small area information with Combine small area information with local knowledge to monitor trendslocal knowledge to monitor trends

Use as an early indication of trends Use as an early indication of trends within the wider citywithin the wider city