INTERNATIONAL)POLITICS) INRL)204) - … · – Peace is thus only the result of the skillful exercise of political power, ... Military&preparedness:& Military)capability)also)

INTERNATIONAL POLITICS INRL 204

POWER

Assist. Prof. Dr. Gökay ÖZERİM Department of International Relations

[email protected] gozerim.yasar.edu.tr

What exactly is power? How do states get it, and how does it determine relaFons amongst them?

Morgenthau’s Realism: Power PoliFcs •  IR should be concerned with two major themes: the

roots of peace, and the “power poliFcs” of war. For Morgenthau, these two concepts are inextricably related

•  The main impetus for war – and, for that maSer, the main impetus for peace – is the constant and omnipresent struggle for power amongst states on the internaFonal stage

•  This conceptualizaFon – which inherently considers peace to be only the absence of war – is the starFng point for Morgenthau’s discussion of power and IR

•  PoliFcal power, for Morgenthau, is the control over the minds and acFons of others

Morgenthau & Power –  Peace results from deterrence through military strength, and NOT from

human attempts to change the qualitative nature of the international system.

–  Peace is thus only the result of the skillful exercise of political power, and not of the attempts of humanity to remake the world

–  War begins mainly as a disagreement over which state holds more

political power, and is thus a failure of political power

–  War ends only when that disagreement is resolved through military “contest”

POWER

•  Power is best thought of as the capacity of Party A to influence the behaviour of Party B – that is the ability of A geYng B to do something. (or not to do)

POWER

•  Power is first and foremost an act of influence •  Influence can come in different forms: (i) Persuade (ii) Reward (iii) Threaten (iv) Coerce (v) Punish...

•  Example: (Persuade) The North AtlanFc Treaty in the late 1940s. The North AtlanFc Treaty involved a fundamental change in American foreign policy, commiYng the United States to the defense of conFnental Europe, but it was insFgated by BriFsh rather than American poliFcal leaders.

•  Example. (Reward) EU Aid Policy towards «Neighbourhood» Countries and migraFon policy

•  Power is the ability to influence the behavior of others. •  Military force and economic sancFons are among the various means

that states and nonstate actors use to try to influence each other.

POWER AS INFLUENCE

Power as Influence

•  The ability to get another actor to do what it would not otherwise have done (or not to do what it would have done)

Power as capability

•  Power also may be thought of as a capability

What are the major characteris4cs of power?

1.  Reliance on one form of power is dangerous 2.  Influence comes in different forms or

techniques 3.  Power capabiliFes are dynamic and changing 4.  Power capabiliFes are relaFve, not absolute 5.  Power is situaFonal 6.  There is a difference between «hard power»

and «sog power»

What are the major characterisFcs of power?

1.   Reliance on one form of power is dangerous Just military technology ? What about infrastructure, transportaFon, economic factors... Example of the Soviet Union


2. Influence comes in different forms or techniques Punishing Coercing Pursuing Rewarding Bergaining


3. Power capabili4es are dynamic and changing RevoluFon in informaFon technologies Shiging control of informaFon Growing interdependence Military technological innovaFons Ethnic naFonalism


4. Power capabili4es are rela4ve, not absolute


5. Power is situa4onal Even the vast US power, North Vietnam sFll prevailed in the Vietnam War


6. There is a difference between «hard power» and «soL power» Hard power: is a state’s economic and military capability to coerce. SoL power: is the state’s ability to influence through cultural and ideological appeal. Sog power rests on the appeal of a country’s ideals and culture and the ability to establish an agenda to that will persuade others to agree on values, ins4tu4ons and behaviour.

SOURCES OF A STATE’s POWER

•  Objec4ve Capabili4es: those which can be measured

•  Subjec4ve Capabili4es: less empirically measurable.

Objec4ve Capabili4es

(1)Geography and natural resources (2)Popula4on (size, health, number of different ethnic groups, educa4on) (3)Wealth and economic stability (4)Military preparedness

ObjecFve CapabiliFes

(1) Geography and natural resources -‐  Geographic size and locaFon Geopoli4cs: The study of the geographical distrubuFon of power mong states throughout the world, with specific aSenFon to the rivalry between the major powers.


(1) Geography and natural resources Temperate Zone: Two (north and south) areas of the globe that lie between 23 degrees and 60 degrees north and 23 degrees and 60 degrees south. Temperate climate, producFve areas...


(1) Geography and natural resources -‐  Geographic size and locaFon Land-‐locked states: A state surrounded by other sovereign states and shut off from easy access to the sea. (Paraguay and Bolivia in South America)


(1) Geography and natural resources Natural Resources: Land for food producFon, coal, oil, rivers

If you import less, you will have more for educaFon and health care.

(1) Geography and natural resources

•  (1) Russia: By means of Natural resources Russia is the richest country in the world. Its total sources make it the richest country having the value of $75 trillion. Gas and Timber reserves are the sources of its main earning.


•  (2) United States is most famous for its 31.2% of world’s overall proved coal reserves having the value of $30 trillion and it has the largest quanFty of coal supply on the earth.

•  It is not only source of America further more it has 750 million forested acres which give earning of million dollars. Its overall resource worth is esFmated $45 Trillion.


•  (3) Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia has the largest oil reserves in its boundaries which are its major sources of earning it contains almost 20% oil from the world’s enFre oil producFon. So it has the greatest share in the world’s oil producFon.Its total sources have the worth of $34.4 trillion.


•  (4) Canada: oil reserves. •  (5) Iran: Iran has largest oil, gas, Timber and other reserves

from which it is earning $27.3 trillion income. •  (6) China: Coal and other earth mineral reserves are

considered its major sources of income. It has many coal reserves which are equal to the 13% of world enFre coal producFon. Its annual income from all resources is more than 23 trillion dollars.


•  (7) Brazil: Gold and Uranium are the major sources which bring Brazil in this list. However Brazil has 17% of world’s iron producFon and it is the 2nd largest iron producing naFon in the world. Brazil has 12.3% of world’s enFre Fmber supply which contributes to a largest amount for Brazil’s economy. Its overall resources value $21.8 trillion.

•  (8) Australia: Australia is geYng most wealth through its Coal,

copper, iron and Fmber reserves. It has largest Gold reserves which are sufficient to 14.3% of global supply.


•  (9) Iraq: Iraq is also a much popular naFon due to its oil reserves in the world. Its annual oil producFon is more than 115 billion barrels. This is almost 9% of to world’s enFre oil output. Furthermore it has largest phosphate rock reserves having the worth more than $1.1 trillion.

•  (10) Venezuela: Venezuela is the world’s 10th famous country

for largest oil and gas reserves as compared to the other countries of the world. Total resources containing oil, gas, Fmber and other sources have the value more than 14.3 trillion dollars.

ObjecFve CapabiliFes (2)Popula4on (size, health, number of different ethnic groups, educa4on) PopulaFon-‐producFon-‐army force BUT: The populaFon size is just the Fp of the iceberg when thinking about the power. Literacy, health, age distribuFon, urbanizaFon, cultural traits, educaFonal level and other factors... China: %81.5 literate India: %52 only BUT: The populaFon demographics a country’s power base. What is the age distribuFon? .... Economic producFvity...

•  Ethnic Diversity: BUT: Not only populaFon size but also is it homogeneous? China: relaFvely yes India : no (diverse ethnic groups, languages) BUT: ethnic diversity also an advantage (US migraFon)


(3)Wealth and economic stability NaFonal infrastructure Technology TransportaFon systems InformaFon and communicaFon system Level of economic development • Total GDP may be the best single indicator of a state’s power

Gross domestic product (GDP) is the market value of all officially recognized final goods and services produced within a country in a year, or other given period of time. GDP per capita is often considered an indicator of a country's standard of living.

•  Gross domestic product (GDP) is the market value of all officially recognized final goods and services produced within a country in a year, or other given period of time. GDP per capita is often considered an indicator of a country's standard of living.


(4)Military preparedness: Military capability also operates as percieved power in the minds of other states’ decisionmakers and in this way it can be used to deter other countries from aSack.

SubjecFve CapabiliFes

•  Na4onal culture •  Na4onal morale •  Quality of government •  Quality of diplomacy Diplomacy: The negoFaFng process by which states and other internaFonal actors pursue internaFonal relaFons and reconciliaFon of compeFng interests by compromise and bergaining.

Paradox of unrealized power

Power DistribuFon & Types of Structure

•  Unipolar : NaFonal or bloc power: Roman Empire.


•  Mul4polar .NaFonal power and alliances. (1648-‐1814 Europe),

•  19th century Europe-‐ The internaFonal system was mulFpolar in that the sense that poliFcal affairs were dominated by numerous European great powers (GB, France, Russia, Prussia, and Austria-‐Hungary) which were roughly equal in power


•  Bipolar . NaFonal power and alliance blocs. Triple Entente {Eng-‐Fr-‐Rus. 1907}, and Cold War.

•  Each has its own type of dominant security problem: challenger/assimila4on; shiLing alliances;

etc...

•  Bipolarity is more “stable.” Why?

BALANCE OF POWER

•  If each country had sufficient power, but not excessive power, to balance off the power of other countries , then peace and stability would follow.

•  The idea is to check power with power, if one alliance seemed to be gaining the edge in the power, than an opposing alliance should increase its’ power – and vice versa.

•  COLD WAR... NATO X WARSAW PACT

WWI

Allied Powers •  France •  Great Britain •  Russia

Central Powers •  Austria-Hungary •  Germany

Alliance System •  The establishment of the Triple Entente and the Triple Alliance

divided the European powers into two camps

•  While seen as a form of self-protection, the alliances also had the potential to escalate small crises into major wars

•  When Austria-Hungary declared war on Serbia, this brought Serbia’s ally Russia into the war, which brought Germany, France, and Britain into the war

•  A DECLINING US LEADERSHIP WILL LEAD A WEAKER OR STRONGER GLOBAL GOVERNANCE ?

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INTERNATIONAL)POLITICS) INRL)204) - … · – Peace is thus only the result of the skillful exercise of political power, ... Military&preparedness:& Military)capability)also)