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IT/OWG-EFMLS-9/19/Inf.5 June 2019
This document is printed in limited numbers to minimize the environmental impact of FAO's processes and
contribute to climate neutrality. Participants are kindly requested to bring their copies to meetings and to
avoid asking for additional copies.
E
INTERNATIONAL TREATY ON PLANT GENETIC RESOURCES
FOR FOOD AND AGRICULTURE
NINTH MEETING OF THE AD HOC OPEN-ENDED WORKING GROUP TO
ENHANCE THE FUNCTIONING OF THE MULTILATERAL SYSTEM
Rome, Italy, 17−21 June 2019
REPORT ON SALES WITHIN THE SEED SECTOR
Note by the Secretary
The Co-chairs of the Working Group have indicated the importance of having data and
information available about sales and profitability within the seed sector at global level,
especially in the context of defining monetary benefit-sharing in the revised SMTA.
The Co-chairs therefore sought input from experts on recent trends in both areas. This document
reproduces a presentation prepared for the ninth meeting of the Working Group on preliminary
key findings of the analysis by the experts
Drilling down into seed company sales and profitRome | 17th June 2019
Dr Jonathan ShohamPhillips McDougall | Agribusiness Intelligence
Contents About Agribusiness Intelligence
The Seed Market
Seed company sales
Seed company profit
Crop analysis
Next steps
Agribusiness intelligence4
About Agribusiness Intelligence
Agribusiness intelligence5
The complete picture on global agribusiness
Providing unrivalled breadth and depth of intelligence
Helping the world’s largest and most influential agribusiness organisations gain competitive advantage by delivering actionable intelligence across the food and commodities value chain.
Agribusiness intelligence6
1. Inputs
2. Agricultural
Commodities
4. Food Policy
& Regulation
Fertilizers► ammonia
► nitrates
► phosphate
► potash
► sulphur
► sulphuric acid
► urea
► NPK
Crop
protection &
seed► agrochemicals
► seeds
► GM crops
► biostimulants
► biopesticidesAnimal health► pharmaceuticals
► vaccines
► diagnostics
► generics
► feed
► US Agriculture
► US Food Policy
► European Agriculture
► European Food Law
3. Food
Processing
& Distribution
► grains & oilseeds
► livestock, poultry & cattle
► soft commodities
► animal feed
PLUS Energy – Biofuels &
Coal
► meat & meat cuts
► dairy
► fruit juice
► canned & frozen food
► transportation & logistics
► weather
5. Retail & Industry
► Food
Service
► Restaurants
The complete picture on global agribusiness
Providing breadth and depth of coverage across the value chain
Agribusiness intelligence7
Delivering a competitive advantage in a dynamic industry
Our trusted services provide:
► Authority – through our well respected,
global team of analysts with unrivalled
industry contacts
► Connection – linking industry activity to
give a complete perspective
► Precision – proprietary and deep historical
data sets feeding our market reporting
► Forward Focus – giving the ability to help
clients see further and react quicker to
changes and trends through accurate
forecasting and analysis
► ADVANTAGE – ultimately giving our
clients the confidence to make quicker,
better decisions that make a difference
Agribusiness intelligence8
Who we work with
► Commodity trading houses
► Government organizations and regulatory authorities
► Food manufacturers
► Agrochemical and seed companies
► Fertilizer companies
► Banks, hedge funds and investors
► Trade associations and NGOs
► Animal pharmaceutical companies
► Oil and gas companies
► Consultancy organizations
Powering agribusiness organizations
large and small
Agribusiness intelligence9
Partnership
• Ahead of the Eighth Session of the Governing Body in November 2019, the FAO requires an analysis of the global seed sector and company performance, to provide an understanding of the sales and profitability of the seed sector.
• Agribusiness Intelligence works with the world’s largest and most influential agribusiness organizations to deliver timely, specific and actionable unbiased intelligence on developments in the global agrochemical and agri-business sector.
• Leading brands include the Phillips McDougall and Agrow brands, which provide unparalleled coverage of the global market for the seeds and crop protection industry.
Project
• To provide a report on the global seed sector and an analysis of industry and company (including public organizations where possible) performance (notably sales and profitability), additionally to segment by crop types.
The Seed Market
Agribusiness intelligence11
Commercial Seed Market: GM accounts for over 50%
$ Million USD37 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
GM seed 15,685 18,495 20,100 21,054 19,789 20,396 21,429 20,822
Conventional seed 18,810 19,065 19,282 19,481 17,441 16,582 17,998 17,036
World seed market 34,495 37,560 39,382 40,535 37,230 36,978 39,427 37,858
Agribusiness intelligence12
Commercial Seed Market: GM accounts for over 50%
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
GM ConventionalSource: Phillips McDougall
Agribusiness intelligence13
Changing seed industry structure:
Top 5 now the Top 3; BASF enters
- 4,000 8,000 12,000
Sakata
Takii
DLF
AgReliant Genetics
KWS
Vilmorin
Bayer
Dow Agrosciences
Syngenta
DuPont Pioneer
Monsanto
2016 sales $m
- 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000
Takii
Sakata
AgReliant Genetics
DLF
KWS
Vilmorin
BASF
Syngenta
Corteva
Bayer
2018 sales $m
Dow and DuPont
merged
Bayer acquired
Monsanto
Bayer divested its
seed business to
BASF
Agribusiness intelligence14
3 Tiers of Seed Company
• Tier 1: The R&D-based ‘majors’ with sales >$500m
• Tier 2: Mid-sized companies with sales between $100m and $500m
• Tier 3: Small seed companies with sales of under $100m
Seed Company sales
Agribusiness intelligence16
Historic Seed Sales for the Leading Companies
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
$m. $m. $m. $m. $m. $m. $m. $m. $m. $m. $m. $m.
Monsanto 5,120 6,632 7,229 7,743 8,953 10,010 10,261 10,685 10,021 10,437 10,913 na
DuPont Pioneer 3,325 3,992 4,736 5,338 6,258 7,253 8,181 7,614 6,787 6,642 6,807 7,842
Syngenta 1,746 2,105 2,233 2,468 2,850 3,237 3,204 3,155 2,838 2,657 2,826 3,204
Dow
Agrosciences365 470 630 795 1,074 1,360 1,614 1,604 1,453 1,533 1,455 na
Bayer 523 662 699 910 1,140 1,237 1,293 1,466 1,417 1,502 1,671 10,443
Vilmorin 1,077 1,322 1,174 1,255 1,381 1,487 1,557 1,713 1,518 1,471 1,485 1,534
KWS 554 707 785 825 922 1,017 1,137 1,254 1,179 1,150 1,175 1,269
AgReliant
Genetics296 345 389 441 488 603 695 692 630 671 667 593
DLF 410 442 383 356 400 411 451 605 543 530 517 693
BASF na na na na na na na na na na na 1,805
Kaneko na na na na na na na na na na na 530
Agribusiness intelligence17
Historic Seed Sales for Tier 2 Seed Companies (1)
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
$m. $m. $m. $m. $m.
Sakata 392 399 399 399 462
Takii 474 456 430 428 473
Rijk Zwaan 362 423 407 431 458
LPHT na na na 294 400
Enza Zaden 261 283 266 293 322
Advanta India 202 235 194 248 289
Barenbrug 273 286 279 262 278
RAGT Semences 277 291 257 232 210
Bejo Zaden 175 197 194 199 208
Nuziveedu na na na na 192
Euralis 219 235 212 192 197
Beidahuang Kenfeng Seed na na na Na 193
Jiangsu Dauha Seed na na na na 191
National Seeds Corporation na na na na 182
Agribusiness intelligence18
Historic Seed Sales for Tier 2 Seed Companies (2)
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
$m. $m. $m. $m. $m.
Union InVivo 132 129 127 161 180
SES Vanderhave 200 180 168 109 159
Caussade
Semences191 213 173 155 158
Maïsadour 173 183 170 140 145
Saaten-Union 144.4 148.6 146 139 130
Seed Co na na na Na 129
Denghai Seed na na na 229 122
Win-All Hi-Tech
Seedna na na 78 102
Agribusiness intelligence19
Tier 3 companies
• More difficult to get data
• Private, often family-owned
• Chinese companies below top 8
• Indian companies below top 3
• All African companies apart from Seed Co
• Over half of the signatories of the declaration?
Agribusiness intelligence20
Top 20 Chinese Seed Companies
Rank Company 2016 sales 2017 Sales Change
US$m. US$m. %
1 Long Ping High-Tech 294.08 399.63 35.89%
2Beidahuang Kenfeng
Seed220.06 192.95 -12.32%
3 Jiangsu Dauha Seed 171.09 191.41 11.88%
4 Denghai Seed 229.42 122.46 -46.62%
5 Win-All Hi-Tech Seed 77.62 101.95 31.34%
6Guangdong Xianmei
Seed85.83 94.24 9.79%
7 Zhongnongfa Seed 107.15 93.01 -13.20%
8Beijing Jinse Nonghua
See95.77 91.00 -4.98%
9 Beijing Lantron Seed 55.59 63.85 14.87%
10 Henan Qiule Seeds 50.12 49.20 -1.83%
11 Jiangsu Mingtian Seed 46.23 46.89 1.43%
12 Hefei Fengle Seed 44.50 41.95 -5.73%
13 WanXiang Doneed 45.94 39.79 -13.38%
14 Gansu Dunhuang Seed 60.77 39.02 -35.79%
15 Jiangsu Red Flag Seed 32.84 38.87 18.37%
16Jiangsu Zhongjiang
Seed39.89 36.25 -9.14%
17Hainan Shennong
Dafeng Seed49.69 34.09 -31.40%
18 Sichuan Xike Seed 20.45 23.75 16.15%
19 Fujian Kehui Seed 18.00 20.36 13.10%
Sales of Top 20 Chinese Seed Companies in 2017
Agribusiness intelligence21
Top Indian Seed Companies
Sales of leading Indian Seed Companies in 2017 (provisional)
Company $mAdvanta 289Nuziveedu 202National Seeds Corporation 182Rasi 78Nirmal 55Andra Pradesh Seed Co 51VNR Seeds 34PHI 28Kalash 17Maharashtra 15Kaveri 10
Agribusiness intelligence22
Using manpower as a predictor of sales
y = 10.238x + 91.202R² = 0.9434
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
Manpower vs sales $m
Seed Company profitability
Agribusiness intelligence24
Tier 1 company profitability: $m 2017
Company Sales: $m EBIT* : $m EBIT *% Main CropsCorteva 8056 769 9.5% Maize, soybeans, CottonMonsanto 10913 2910 26.7% Maize, soybeans, cotton, vegSyngenta 2657 266 10.0% Maize, soybeans, veg, oilseedsBayer 1694 85 5.0% Canola, veg, cottonVilmorin 1594 133 8.4% Maize, veg, cerealsKWS 1212 148 12.2% Sugar beet, maize, cerealsDLF 618 35 5.7% Forage cropsAgReliant 657 66 10.0% Maize, soybeansKaneko 531 18 3.5% Veg
Total 27401 4412 16.1%
Total w/o Monsanto 16488 1502 9.1%
* EBIT – Earnings before interest and taxes
Agribusiness intelligence25
Tier 2 company profitability: $m 2017-2018
Company EBIT % Main crops2017 2018
Kaneko 3.5% 3.0% Veg & flowersRijk Zwaan 21.7% 14.0% Veg Enza Zaden 14.1% 9.7% VegBarenbrug 8.5% 7.9% Turf grassesBejo Zaden 24.6% 10.4% Veg
Average EBIT % 12.9% 8.5%
Agribusiness intelligence26
Proposed Company Segmentation
Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3
Sales range: $m >$500m $100-500m <$100m
# companies 11 30-40Hundreds, possibly
thousands
Profit % of sales 10-15% 10% 5% (provisional)
% total market sales 75% 15% (provisional) 10% (provisional)
Methodology Annual reports
Annual reports and
Company House
submissions
Company House
submissions and
estimations
Signatories -1st pass 4 12 25
Crop analysis
Agribusiness intelligence28
Seed market by crop: $m 2017
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
Maize Soybean Vegetables Cereals Rice Rapeseed Cotton Sugar beet Sunflower
Sales 2016 ($ M.) Sales 2017 ($ M.)
Agribusiness intelligence29
Sales of leading companies by crop: $m 2017
Maize Soybean Veg & Flowers Cotton Cereals Others
Bayer (Monsanto) 6,068 2,817 867 650 542
Corteva 5,324 1,613 161 968
Syngenta 1,075 424 622 707
BASF 186 491 237 779
Vilmorin 139 833 216 355
KWS 528 141 504
AgReliant 512 138 7
DLF 10 507
Takii 473
Sakata 462
Sub-total 13,645 5,179 3,758 1,049 357 4,368
Total 16,420 8,423 5,436 1,757 2,306 5,085
Agribusiness intelligence30
Crop profitability
• Lot of variation within the same crop
• E.g. for corn Monsanto v profitable; other companies not always so
• Vegetables – some Dutch companies very profitable; Kaneko not so
• But can get some indications of ranges, averages and rankings by crop….
Agribusiness intelligence31
Initial hierarchy of crop profitability
• Sugar Beet (>30% EBIT for KWS)
• Vegetables (10-15% EBIT: specialist companies, Monsanto, Vilmorin)
• Maize/soybean (5-10% EBIT: Corteva, Monsanto, Vilmorin, KWS)
• Forage crops (5% EBIT: DLF)
• Potatoes (<5% EBIT)
• ? Wheat, rice, rapeseed, other oilseeds, cotton
Next steps
Agribusiness intelligence33
Next steps
• More company results
• More companies
• 2018 updates
• Drill down into Tier 3
• Further analysis of overall company profitability
• Further analysis of crop profitability
• Outputs by September
• 20-30 page report
• Slideset for presentation
Contact information
Jonathan Shoham Consulting Analyst: [email protected]
Matthew Stamp Senior Corporate Account Manager: +44 7884 104 917
agribusinessintelligence.com
+44 (0)20 7017 7500
