International Telecommunication Union Committed to Connecting the World Global and Regional Broadband trends Workshop on Regulatory policies on universal

InternationalTelecommunicationUnion

Committed to Connecting the World

Global and Regional Global and Regional Broadband trendsBroadband trends

Workshop on “Regulatory policies on universal access to broadband services”

ITU-D Study Group 1, Question 7-2/1ITU Headquarters, Geneva

8 September 2008

Susan Teltscher, Ph.D.Head, Market Information and Statistics Division

International Telecommunication Union

April 2008


2

This presentation

Global and regional ICT trends Digital divide and broadband B4D applications Spotlight on Asia-Pacific

April 2008


3

Fixed telephony

60.5%

39.5%

Developed

Developing

Fixed telephone lines, 2000

43.9%

56.1%

Developed

Developing


0.7%

51.7%

0.5%

19.3%

27.9%

Africa

Americas

Arab States

Asia

Europe & CIScountries

Fixed telephone lines, 20001.1%

21.6%

2.8%

46.5%

28.1% Africa

Americas

Arab States

Asia



April 2008


4

Fixed telephony

45.5

13.1

19.0

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

98 99 2000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07

Developed Developing World

Fixed telephone lines per 100 inhabitants

1.9

31.3

11.016.1

41.6

19.0

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

98 99 2000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07

Africa AmericasArab States Asia & Pacific

Europe & CIS countries World

Fixed telephone lines per 100 inhabitants

1.2 billion phone lines in 200756% in developing countries

Highest increase in AsiaOverall global stagnation

April 2008


5

Mobile telephony

1.6%

25.3%

1.3%

31.0%

40.8%

Africa

Americas

Arab States

Asia


Mobile cellular telephone subscriber, 2000

5.2%

19.8%

5.3%

41.7%

27.9%Africa

Americas

Arab States

Asia


Mobile cellular telephone subscriber, 2007

65.1%

34.9%Developed

Developing

Mobile cellular telephone subscribers, 2000

37.5%

62.5%

Developed

Developing

Mobile cellular telephone subscribers, 2007

April 2008


6

Mobile telephony

100.9

37.8

49.4

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

98 99 2000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07

Developed

Developing

World

Mobile cellular telephone subscribers per 100 inhabitants

22.7

71.7

53.0

36.1

103.6

49.4

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

98 99 2000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07

AfricaAmericasArab StatesAsia & PacificEurope & CIS countriesWorld

Mobile cellular telephone subscribers per 100 inhabitants

3.3 billion mobile subscribers Steep growth in developing

countries (incl. Africa) Single most widespread ICT

Half of the world’s population have mobile telephony

Rich countries: >100% penetration

April 2008


7

Internet users

75.4%

24.6%

Developed

Developing

Internet users, 2000

50.3%49.7%

DevelopedDeveloping


0.9%

41.0%

0.9%28.5%

28.7% Africa

Americas

Arab States

Asia


Internet users, 20002.0%

28.3%

3.1%

41.0%

25.5% Africa

Americas

Arab States

Asia



April 2008


8

Internet users54.8

12.2

20.0

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

98 99 2000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07

Developed

Developing

World

Internet users per 100 inhabitants

3.6

41.4

12.814.4

38.3

20.0

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

98 99 2000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07


Internet users per 100 inhabitants

1.3 billion Internet users Half of the world’s

Internet users are in developing countries (mainly Asia)

But only 12 per 100 inhabitants in developing countries use Internet

April 2008


9

Broadband: high-speed Internet connection

International speed threshold: 256 kbps

Mainly fixed lines Trend: Mobile broadband – 3G,

WiMAX, Wi-Fi

April 2008


10

Broadband divide: fixed

0.2%

27.4%

0.9%

37.9%

33.6%

Africa

Americas

Arab States

Asia


Fixed broadband subscribers, 2007

0.0%

45.4%

0.1%

35.1%

19.4%

Africa

Americas

Arab States

Asia



73.5%

26.5%

Developed

Developing


66.5%

33.5% Developed

Developing


April 2008


11

Broadband divide: fixed

17.7

2.3

5.2

0

5

10

15

20

98 99 2000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07

Developed

Developing

World

Fixed broadband subscribers per 100 inhabitants

0.1

10.3

1.0

3.4

13.0

5.2

0

5

10

15

20

98 99 2000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07


Fixed broadband subscribers per 100 inhabitants

346 million subscribers Large divide – poor

countries yet to catch up in growth

Steepest growth in Europe/developed countries

April 2008


12

Broadband divide: mobile

67.3%

32.7% Developed

Developing

Mobile broadband subscribers, 2004

79.2%

20.8% Developed

Developing


4.3%

69.4%

26.1%

0.2%0.0%

Africa

Americas

Arab States

Asia & Pacific


Mobile broadband subscribers, 20048.0%

1.6%

55.3%

34.4%

0.8%

Africa

Americas

Arab States

Asia & Pacific



April 2008


13

Broadband divide: mobile

13.2

0.8

3.0

0

5

10

15

2000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07

DevelopedDevelopingWorld

Mobile broadband subscribers per 100 inhabitants

0.2

1.81.0

2.9

7.8

3.0

0

5

10

15

2000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07

Africa Americas

Arab States Asia & Pacific

Europe & CIS countries World

Mobile broadband subscribers per 100 inhabitants

200 million subscribers A few Asian countries are

at the forefront Steep growth in

developed countries – increasing global divide

In developing countries still insignificant – important policy implications

April 2008


14

Broadband champions

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Kore

a(R

ep)

Icel

and

Net

her

lands

Sin

gap

ore

Den

mar

k

HK

, C

hin

aTai

wan

,C

hin

aN

orw

ay

Sw

eden

Mac

ao,

Chin

a

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Icel

and

Slo

venia

US

A

Den

mar

k

Norw

ay

Tai

wan

, C

hin

a

Sw

eden

Japan

HK

, C

hin

a

Kore

a (R

ep.)

Sou

rce

: IT

U W

orld

Tel

ecom

mun

icat

ion/

ICT

Ind

icat

ors

data

base

.

Sou

rce

: F

iber

-to-

the-

Hom

e C

oun

cil.

Top 10 economies by FTTH/LAN household penetration, 2007

Top 10 economies by broadband household penetration, 2007

April 2008


15

Benefits of broadband

Broadband makes the Internet always available at a fast speed: Companies can keep websites up and running 24x7

and can deliver products & services in real time, anywhere in the world.

Individuals enjoy a faster and more pleasant Internet surfing experience and the ability to use bandwidth-intensive applications (e.g., VoIP, IPTV).

Broadband enhances a range of socially desirable and valuable online services in areas such as government, education and health.

April 2008


16

Broadband for Development (B4D) applications

Education: online distance learning Business: e-commerce, e-banking, ICT-

enabled services/BPO Health: access to medical information in

rural/underserved areas Government: e-procurement, online tax

filing, e-voting Environment: disaster management

April 2008


17

Spotlight on Asia-Pacific

Launched 1 September 2008

Broadband: -trends -technologies -divide -policies

Statistical tables Directory of national

ICT/telecom organizations

April 2008


18

Broadband Divide: Speed

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

J apan

Hong Kong, China

Singapore

Taiwan, China

Macao, China

Maldives

Philippines

Fij i

Pakistan

Solomon I slands

Bangladesh

Laos

Tonga

Sou

rce

: IT

U.

Note: The range of speeds show the advertised lowest and highest speed consumer broadband plan offered using DSL technology. Higher speed, mass market broadband plans using fiber optic connections are available in several high-income economies, with speeds from 100 Mbps to 1 Gbps. For Bangladesh, speeds refer to a cable modem plan.

Mbps50

5030

20

April 2008


19

Broadband Divide: Price

$0$10$20$30$40$50$60$70$80$90

$100

Ma

cao

, C

hin

aT

aiw

an

,Ch

ina

Sin

ga

po

reJa

pa

nH

K,

Ch

ina

Ne

w Z

ea

lan

dA

ust

ralia

Ko

rea

(R

ep

.)M

ald

ive

sM

ala

ysia

Bru

ne

i Da

rus.

Th

aila

nd

Fiji

Ch

ina

Ind

iaS

ri L

an

kaIn

do

ne

sia

Ph

ilip

pin

es

Vie

tna

mP

aki

sta

nB

hu

tan

To

ng

aM

on

go

liaN

ep

al

Ba

ng

lad

.P

NG

Ca

mb

od

iaV

an

ua

tuS

olo

mo

n I

sl.

La

os

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%

Monthly subscription% of GNI per capita

Price >per

capita income

Monthly broadband prices in Asia-Pacific, minimum 256 kbps, US$, July 2008

Sou

rce

: IT

U

High cost of international fibre & scarcity of international bandwidthLack of competition & barriers for new entrants

April 2008


20

Mobile browsing

Sou

rce

: A

dapt

ed

from

Nie

lse

n M

obile

. A growing

number of users in developing countries are using mobile phone as browser to access Internet

05

10152025303540

Th

aila

nd

Ch

ina

Ph

ilip

pin

es

Sin

ga

po

re

Ind

iaN

ew

Ze

ala

nd

Ind

on

esi

a

Mill

ion

s

0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%

Using mobile phone to access Internet% of mobile subscribers% of Internet users

April 2008


21

Broadband divide: too much - too littleHigh-income economies

Ubiquitous, ultra-high speed access at ever lower price

IP-based voice and video applications and 3G mobile use

Fixed and mobile technologies complement each other so that many users enjoy uninterrupted high-speed connectivity

Low-income economies

Bandwidth deprived Low-speed ICT access Mobile phones have become

a substitute for fixed lines and fixed broadband access, fulfilling data needs

Internet cafes to provide higher speed, PC-based access

B4D: Low-income economies should not be complacent about broadband. High-speed connectivity is crucial for many applications that can be important development-enablers.

April 2008


22

Recommendations Recognize importance of broadband; formulate

national plans, including specific targets Award licenses and spectrum for wireless broadband

technologies (3G, WiMAX) Open up the broadband market to new operators

and stimulate competition to lower prices Create investment incentives in telecom sector Utilize universal service funds to bring broadband

to rural and underserved areas Promote development of local content Encourage convergence and the transition to NGN

including adoption of regulations allowing the use of voice and video over broadband networks.

April 2008


23

More Information

ITU Statisticshttp://www.itu.int/ict/

ITU Publicationshttp://www.itu.int/opb/

[email protected]

Documents

International Telecommunication Union Committed to Connecting the World Global and Regional Broadband trends Workshop on Regulatory policies on universal