International Technical Meeting on Measuring Remittances

January 24-25, Washington D.C.

Neil Fantom

World Bank

http://www.worldbank.org/data

Background

• Sea Island Summit, June 2004: call for G8 countries to work with international agencies and others to improve data

• G7 Finance Ministers: call for international working group to improve remittance statistics– Clarify and revise definitions and concepts– Better guidance for cost-effective data

collection– Improvement of “bilateral” estimates

Purpose of meeting

• Gain better understanding of the request, and the needs of users

• Review existing frameworks and ongoing work (what are the gaps?)

• Review constraints and problems faced by countries in collecting data

• Develop an appropriate work program, coordinated with existing initiatives

Who attended?

• International organizations:– WB, IMF, UNSD, OECD, Eurostat, ECB, ADB,

IADB

• Countries and Territories– Canada, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, The

Philippines, Poland, Spain, Turkey, Uganda, US, UK

• Mostly data practitioners, plus policy advisers

Policy issues

• Important because they are:– Large (particularly for developing countries)– Stable: can cushion shocks– Providing direct benefits for households

• Better statistics needed to:– Improve financial infrastructure (e.g. by

reducing transaction costs)– Understand impact on poverty– Measure trade in relation to GATS Mode 4

Priority needs

• Priority #1: aggregate estimates

• Priority #2: estimates of flows between countries

• Priority #3: data from household surveys

• For development policy, interest is in household-to-household transfers resulting from movement of people across borders

Frameworks, ongoing work

• Balance of Payments– Currently no partner detail– Not always reported by countries, or not

reported according to definitions

• Trade in Services: Technical Subgroup on Movement of Natural Persons – Mode 4– Looking at remittance statistics issues– Linkage with GATS/Mode 4 is problematic

• Migration statistics definitions

Country presentations

• Different methods e.g.– “modeled” using demographic data and

estimates from household surveys– Banking records

• Most countries have problems– Coverage (e.g. reporting thresholds)– Lower priority for estimating remittances than

other items– Difficulty in classifying residents/non-residents

Use of surveys

• Studies conducted by Asian and Inter-American Development Banks

• Household surveys of both remittance senders and receivers

• Difficulties:– Sampling of senders (rare event problem)– Coverage and response issues– Cost?

Conclusions and way forward

• BoP is the appropriate conceptual framework for aggregates– “satellite” analysis may be needed

• TSG has the right people, timetable, process to improve concepts:– but need to de-link from GATS/Mode 4

• Need for a “City Group”– improved methods

• WB/IMF/UN to report on progress by September