www.ciifen.org

Diana Espinoza Ramirez

d.espinoza@ciifen.org

International Research Center on “El Niño” CIIFEN

GIS Technology for Making Decision in Agrometeorology: Early Warning Systems in Andean Region and its impacts in the agriculture development

CIIFEN is a Nonprofit International Organization established in January 10th 2003, as result of a process inside United Nations Office. Its International Directory is compound by Spain Government, Ecuador Government, The United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) as observatory.

2

MISION Promote and develop actions to consolidate the scientific-political interactions and the strength of hidroclimatic and oceanic services to contribute to risk management and adaptation

3

SENAMHI PERÚ

IDEAM COLOMBIA

DMC CHILE

INAMEH VENEZUELA

SENAMHI BOLIVIA

PRODUCTS

SERVICES

LOCAL SCALE

5 http://crc-osa.ciifen.org/

WMO RCC are excellence centers

dedicated to the creation of

climatic regional products,

including long term forecast in

support of climatic activities at

regional and national levels,

contributing to strength the

capacity of WMO members of a

region to share better climatic

services to national users.

WMO RCC have a regional scope

and do not replace or duplicate

national responsibilities

WMO Regional Climate Center for Western SouthAmerica

RCC

6

CIIFEN

ACMAD

South America: Andean region

Inside the continent is the Andean region, which consist of a mountain range with average height of 4000 meters, and is part of the territories of Argentina, Chile, Bolivia, Peru, Ecuador, Colombia and Venezuela.

The main activity of this region is agriculture, with production of cereals (quinoa, oats, rice), potatoes in varies varieties, vegetables and grains.

South America is a region with a marked diversity in cultural, social, demographic, and economic aspects.

The region is threatened by climatic extremes that causes losses in

agricultural production. The most common climatic extremes are

sudden decreases in temperature, extreme precipitation that causes

floods and droughts, this events are increase due to El Niño event.

AGRICULTURAL SECTOR

PUBLIC POLITICS

MARKETS

LIMITED GENETIC INVESTIGATION

WATER USE CONFLICTS

LIMITED TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER

EXCESIVE USE OF PESTICIDES

PESTS AND DISEASES INCREASED

SOIL DEGRADATION

CLIMATIC INFORMATION ABSENCE

ECOSISTEMS AND WATERSHEDS CONDITIONS

VARIABILITY AND CLIMATE CHANGE

But it’s not the only affectation in the agriculture

How can we manage this information in order to contribute to agriculture development?

Vulnerability analysis

Socioeconomic and biofisic vulnerability

Hidroclimatic and Vegetacion Monitoring

Hidroclimatic parameters

Vegetation Indexs

Crop Monitoring

Crop localization

Phenological Phases

Previous knowledge of crop conditions

Water requirements in diferent

crop phases Irrigations access

Vulnerability analysis and Agriculture risk

Vulnerability analysis focused on crops considerer the characteristic on crops that make increase its vulnerability or in the same conditions help the crops to cape and adapt. To estimate the vulnerability this characteristics were considered in a GIS model, using shape layers and mathematic expressions.

Vulnerability

Agricultural suitability

Erosion

Water stress

Access to water for irrigations

Recorded Precipitation

deficit Infiltration

Temperature

Climatic classification

Soil Saturation

Meteorological Stations

Rclimdex Modelling

Drought Trend

Frost Trend

Climatic trends Indexs

Climate Threats Maps

Vulnerability

Droughts

Frost

Vulnerability Maps

Agriculture Risk Map

Agiculture Risk Estimation in the Andean Region of Ecuador: Droughts, Frost and other Climate Change Impacts Metodology

Vulne agr(frost) = AgSuit + ClimaClass + SoilSat + Eros + AccWatIrr + Temp

Vulne agr(Drought) = AgSuit + Eros + WatStre + AccWatIrr+ RecPrecDef+ Infiltr

Vulnerability Maps

Agriculture Risk Maps

Vulnerability analysis, crop information and climatic, agroclimatic and meteorological monitoring can be included in a cartographic platform for stakeholders and policy makers.

This platform is part of an Early Warning System in the Jubones basin (Andean Region – Ecuador) in which the technical personnel elaborate bulletins based on the meteorological, hydrological and vulnerability information. (FORECCSA Project)

The objective of this system is provide information to local farmers in the region, so they would be able to protect their crops against a flooding, frost, or drought in long term and contribute to the food security in the region.

Link: http://sat-foreccsa.ciifen.org

Early Warning Systems and climatic information

Platform

Climatic, Agroclimatic and meterological monitoring

Vulnerability and risk maps

Qualified personnel analyze information

Committe decide to emit food security bulletin

Local farmers and communities receive

information

Communities develop actions in the territory

Joint research Centre of the European Commission (JRC) operate an map server online to analyze and map geographic information, which describes drought phenomenon and desertification process in South America The applications manage data in real time, previsions and historic data for describing drought. Actually JRC is transferring the application to CIIFEN server, with this resources: • Monthly accumulate precipitation • Standardized Precipitation Index • SPI station forecast • Soil Humidity • Soil Humidity anomalies http://edo.jrc.ec.europa.eu/scado

Other resources in the region: Drought Monitoring

CIIFEN and FAO are preparing an agreement for monitoring Drought using the Agriculture Stress Index (ASI). This index uses satellite data for detecting agriculture zona with high probability of suffer hydric stress worldwide. ASIS produce a map each 10 days, and shows hot-spots worldwide where exist water stress during a crop period. The main idea of the application is simulate the analysis of a remote sensing professional would do and simplify the result using maps for final users. ASIS database contains 30 years of hot-spots since 1984. FAO developed a regional version for drought monitoring in countries scale. This version needs to be calibrated with local agriculture statistics. For enhance the correlations between ASIS and agriculture performance, the land use maps for each region are needed. This version is useful in drought risk reduction and local planning.

http://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/asis

Meteorological Stations are spread over the

territory and contain discontinuous series.

Estimated precipitations show mistakes on their estimations and exist deviations in different

regions

(Dinku et al. 2007, Lim and Ho 2000)

Actually in the region it s not available a crop map

that allows algorithms applications related to its phenological phases and

hydric requirements

Limitations on the spatial crop distribution

determinations, in order to elaborate a mask for crop

monitoring. (Land use maps with low resolution)

Crop Monitoring: Limitations in the region

CROP MONITORING

LIMITATIONS AND

AGRICULTURE

MANAGEMENT

www.ciifen.org

International Research Center on “El Niño” CIIFEN

¡ Muchas gracias !

Thanks for your attention!!