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Page 15Japan Scope Vol.6 March 2007Page 14 Japan Scope Vol.6
March 2007
International Relations
JAPANESE INTERNATIONAL
RELATIONS
Politics & Society
North Korea's Other Deterrent
Since 2000, the government of South Korea has gone out of its
wayto engage with its communist northern neighbor. The so-called
Sunshine
Policy has indeed produced stronger trans-border business ties
and created
generous aid packages bound for Pyongyang. The policy has also
encour-
aged the South to tone down the content of radio programs it
broadcasts
into the North now featuring fewer shrill and bellicose
denouncements
of communism. However, with the citizens of the North being
continu-ously denied basic human rights and Pyongyangs recent
demonstration
of nuclear capability, ofcials all over Asia, not least in J
apan, feel that the
Sunshine Policy is failing.
Although a plethora of more advanced technology exists, radio
broadcasts
still play a powerful role in modern politics in democratic
countries. For
example, though the content varies greatly, talk radio is still
hugely popular
among conservative and liberal listeners in America. In Britain,
recent con-
troversy over an episode of the BBCs Today program brought about
the
Hutton Report and with it, an investigation into the British
governments
use of pre-war intelligence in Iraq. A more poignant example of
the power
of radio broadcasting is the integral role played by Radio Free
Europe, Ra-
dio Liberty and the BBC World Service in arousing the dissent
that forced
the collapse of communism in Europe. So popular were these
services that
many newly democratic governments at the time requested they
stay on-air
even after theirraison detre had long passed.
The proven success of radio-based campaigns is one reason Seoul
con-
tinues giving aid and refrains from outwardly aggravating Kim
Jong Il,
even in the face of nuclear proliferation and dreadful human
rights abuses.
Unfortunately, South Koreas actions are neither international
altruism nor
simple appeasement. If the Northern population overthrows its
rulers and
Korea is reunited, the South will have lost its principal
military threat but
gained a huge economic burden. Although the German economy was
badly
affected after its reunication in 1990, that economic struggle
would pale
in comparison to the potential downturn taken by the South
Korean econ-
omy. Neither, it would seem, do the citizens of the South feel
particularly
charitable towards their poverty stricken cousins in the North.
In a National
Assembly poll in 2005, 45% of voters said they would refuse to
pay even
one penny towards reunication. Moreover, 65% believe that the
North
should receive less economic aid from the South. With youth
unemploy -
ment rising and the wealth gap widening in the South, many want
to see
public money go towards projects in which they can see realistic
benets.
According to CIA estimates, the Norths per capita GDP is
approximately
$1,800 compared to $24,200 in the South. Due to an increasingly
con-stricting military budget, every other sector of industry,
agriculture and
public service is chronically underfunded. As long as the major
concern of
the Northern elite remains holding onto power, major reform is
unlikely.
After all, they certainly dont want to repeat the former Soviet
Unions sui-
cidal mistakes ofglasnost(openness) andperestroika
(transparency).
The United Nations sanctions against luxury items one of the
more novel
ways to undermine the regime appear to be having the desired
affect. Ac-
cording to Kim Sung Min, a northern defector who now runs Free
North
Korea Radio in the South, Kim Jong Il would routinely give away
hi-tech
prizes to winners of state sponsored sporting events, but that
three months
ago, winners received live chickens instead.
Only thanks to hunger relief and world food programs can the
population
in the North keep mass starvation at bay. Add to this an
educational system
bent on political indoctrination and a complete rejection of the
fundamen-tals of basic market economics, and the result is a recipe
for disaster. While
a survey by the Korean Institute of Criminal Justice Policy and
Cheongju
University found that while only 0.5% of South Koreans had been
targeted
and cheated of nancial assets, this gure jumps to 21.5% for
northern
defectors over the same period. It would seem the only people in
the South
who may reap any nancial benets from unication are con
artists.
Without a doubt, maintaining the status quo means war is a
possibility for
the South. However, if the 38th parallel disappears, economic
disintegra-
tion for Korea is denite. Many Korean families dream of being
able to
freely visit relatives on the other side of the heavily fortied
border and
while for them blood is thicker than water, for nations, cash ow
is thicker
than both.
By William Brooks
Japan North Korea Relations
In a recent meeting in Beijing, North Korea proposed a rm date
on which
it plans to return to the nuclear negotiating table after 13
months of self-im-
posed exile from the six-party talks. According to theAsahi
Shimbun, six-
party framework countries Russia, America, Japan, China and
South Korea
saw the gesture as a positive step toward North Korea scrapping
its nuclear
development initiatives and rejoining the international
communitys nuclear
non-proliferation agreement. However, the major sticking point
of lifting
economic sanctions on North Korea remains a pivotal fulcrum on
which
neither North Korea nor the international community seem willing
to shift
their weight. At the time of printing, in a strange reversal of
policy, the U.S.
surrendered concessions to Pyongyang in return for nuclear
non-prolifera-
tion. The durability of this agreement remains to be seen.
Analysis: Throughout history, the U.N. has consistently
sanctioned coun-
tries (see Iraq, Cuba, Iran, India and Pakistan for examples)
and the world
has consistently witnessed their complete futility in deterring
behavior or
compelling action. The international community likes them
because theymean no soldiers in harms way, North Korea likes them
too because it
means they dont really need to comply with anything. Willingness
to ne-
gotiate on sanctions seems a peculiar change in policy for the
stubborn
rogue state. Look for the talks to break down in the upcoming
second
round the round concerned specically with lifting sanctions.
Japan China Relations
According to an article on CCTV.com, China Central Television,
the na-
tions largest and most popular television network, plans to air
a 20-part
series called Yangsong (Eyes on Japan), which will focus on
Japanese
lifestyle, history, economics and politics. According to the
website, Japa-
nese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and his wife Akie, former
Japanese Prime
Minister Tomiichi Murayama, famous author Junichi Watanabe and
actor
Ken Takakura will be interviewed for the inaugural season. As a
lead-up
to production, China has plans to send its largest-ever
contingent of jour-nalists to Japan for 20 days of interviews,
fact-nding and prescreening.
Keiji Ide, a minister in the Japanese Embassy in Beijing, hopes
the project
will contribute to Japans efforts to boost China-Japan ties.
Analysis: An important breakthrough. A realignment of thinking.
A
new era in relations. Headlines like these permeate current
media stories
about the future of Japan-China relations. Despite the mutual
admiration
society growing between the Asian giants, both seem to be
ignoring the
proverbial elephant in the room: Japans fundamental foreign
policy is
structured around building democracy and respecting human
rights, Chi-
nas is decidedly not. Besides, Prime Minister Abe still has yet
to go on
record about a certain controversial shrine in Tokyo.
Japan Nepal Relations
In the rst signicant move since being upgraded to a legitimate
ministry,
the Defense Ministry has approved a plan to deploy ten SDF
personnel to a
collaborative U.N. military observer mission. According to a
recent article
in the Japan Times, the Defense Ministrys new mandate is to
focus on
international cooperation efforts abroad. The move comes in the
wake of
Prime Minister Abes commitment to sending Japanese Defense
Ministry
personnel into conict areas as long as the forces are used only
to bol -
ster international peace and stability. In Nepal, the main task
of the U.N.
military observer group will be to monitor the implementation of
the most
recent ceasere between Maoist rebels and the Nepalese
government, but
the Defense Ministry will be specically tasked with arms
management
and information gathering between the two sides.
Analysis: Prime Minister Abes got himself a shiny new toy and
now hes
got parliaments permission to go out and play with it. Nepal is
still consid-
ered a hot zone and Abes urgency at having Defense Ministry
personnel
involved there is probably a precursor for things to come. Abe
has alwaysbeen an outspoken advocate for increasing the role of
Japans military
so look for Defense Ministry personnel being deployed to conict
areas
throughout the world (Afghanistan & Sudan in the immediately
future),
and dont be surprised when reports start showing that situations
com-
pelled Japanese troops to become more than just observers.
Japan Thailand Relations
Every month, the Japan External Trade Organization (JETRO)
issues a
report on business performance in ASEAN countries Thailand,
Malaysia,
Singapore, Indonesia and the Philippines, from the perspective
of Japa -
nese investors. The report based on a ratio of positive to
negative factors
called a diffusion index (DI) is designed to quantify the
performance of
the respective economy and monitor business trends ripe for
investment.
According to a recent article in theBangkok Post, JETRO Bangkok
presi-
dent Yoichi Kato cites political instability, baht appreciation
and rising oil,interest and ination rates as justications for
Thailands receiving the
lowest grade in each of the last three months. Japanese parent
companies
might even be inclined to relocate offshore investments from
Thailand, es-
pecially if the Thai baht continues to drop against the dollar.
The article is
quick to point out however, the index is unlikely to cause
Japanese deci-
sion-makers to immediately withdraw their investments in
Thailand since
they are part of the business plans drawn two or three years
earlier.
Analysis: Since the beginning of the Koizumi administration,
Japan has
invested billions of yen in the development of basic
infrastructure in Thai-
land, Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam. Although foreign aid will
continue,
look for already-conservative JETRO investments to decrease
unless Thai-
lands lucrative tourist industry can rebound from recent
political unrest.
