INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

The Energy Mix for a The Energy Mix for a Sustainable FutureSustainable Future

Claude MandilClaude MandilExecutive Director Executive Director

International Energy AgencyInternational Energy Agency

World Bank Energy Week World Bank Energy Week Washington, 7 March Washington, 7 March 20062006

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

Business-as-usual ScenarioBusiness-as-usual Scenario

Based on current trends global energy demand will rise by 52 % by 2030Based on current trends global energy demand will rise by 52 % by 2030

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Oil

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Nuclear power

Other renewables

Hydropower

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

This is NotSustainable!

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

Oil Exports to Key Demand CentersOil Exports to Key Demand Centers

All the key oil demand centers will become more dependent on imports as All the key oil demand centers will become more dependent on imports as the Middle East and North Africa plays an increasing role in global supplythe Middle East and North Africa plays an increasing role in global supply

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OECD Europe OECD Pacific IndiaChina Other Asia

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OECD North America

OECD Europe OECD Pacific IndiaChina Other AsiaOECD North America

OECD Europe OECD Pacific IndiaChina Other Asia

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

Global emissions grow 62% between now & 2030, with developing Global emissions grow 62% between now & 2030, with developing countries’ emissions overtaking OECD’s in the 2020scountries’ emissions overtaking OECD’s in the 2020s

World Energy-Related CO2 EmissionsWorld Energy-Related CO2 Emissions

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OECD Transition economies Developing countries

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OECD Transition economies Developing countries

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

Electricity DeprivationElectricity Deprivation

In 2030, if no new policies are implemented, there will still beIn 2030, if no new policies are implemented, there will still be 1.4 billion people without electricity1.4 billion people without electricity

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

“We will act with resolve and urgency to meet our shared multiple objectives of reducing greenhouse gas

emissions, improving the global environment, enhancing energy security and cutting air pollution in conjunction

with our vigorous efforts to reduce poverty“

-- from “G8 Gleneagles Communiqué”

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

Global COGlobal CO2 2 Emissions in the Reference Emissions in the Reference & Alternative Scenarios& Alternative Scenarios

Policies that governments are already considering – but have not Policies that governments are already considering – but have not yet enacted yet enacted –– would cut would cut COCO22 emissions by 16% in 2030 emissions by 16% in 2030

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Reference Scenario Alternative Scenario

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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

Opportunities for Energy Efficiency and CO2 Emissions:Opportunities for Energy Efficiency and CO2 Emissions:Coal Fired Electricity Generation in ChinaCoal Fired Electricity Generation in China

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WEO 2004 ReferenceScenario for 2030

ACT Scenario for2050

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Coal consumption per kWh for coal-based generation relative to 2003 level

CO2 emissions per kWh from coal based generation relative to 2003 level

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

Avoiding 1 Billion Tons of COAvoiding 1 Billion Tons of CO22 per Year per Year

CoalCoal Replace 300 conventional, 500-MW coal power plants Replace 300 conventional, 500-MW coal power plants with “zero-emission” power plants, which means…..with “zero-emission” power plants, which means…..

Wind Install 200 x current US wind generation

Solar PV Install 1300 x current US solar generation

CO2 Sequestration Install 1000 Sleipner CO2 sequestration plants

Nuclear Build 150 1-GW power plants

Adapted from Pacala & Socolow, Science 2004

Efficient Lighting Replace ~95% of incandescence lighting (i.e. phase out)

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

Key MessagesKey MessagesThere is no single solution for a sustainable There is no single solution for a sustainable

energy futureenergy futureA broad portfolio is needed A broad portfolio is needed but some features are but some features are

clear:clear:Energy Efficiency … available now at low or no

cost !Natural Gas, Coal … with CO2 capture & storage Biofuels, Renewables … with lower costsNuclear.… with safe waste management H2 & Fuel Cells … with lower costFusion … maybe, in the very long term