International Electronic Component Di t ib tiDistribution IDEA Europe.pdf · 2009. 10. 11. · Growth Q3 08 to Q2 09 compared with Q3 07 to Q2 08 with Q3 07 to Q2 08 Germany -31.7%

InternationalInternational Electronic Component

Di t ib tiDistribution

A joint presentation by the members of the IDEA AssociationA joint presentation by the members of the IDEA Association

Paris October 2009Paris October 2009

Introduction by Introduction by Gary Kibblewhite Gary Kibblewhite -- ChairmanChairmanyy yy

International Distribution of Electronics Association

India

IDEA is an “Association of Associations” whose b th El t i C t ifi t dmembers are the Electronic Component-specific trade

associations of many of the major electronic producer nations in the World Distributor members combinednations in the World. Distributor members combined sales in 2008 exceeded $25 billion.


A Q ti ?Any Questions?

Thank You!


UK Economic OutlookUK Economic OutlookUK Economic OutlookUK Economic Outlookand and

fdfd UK / I l d F tUK / I l d F tafdecafdec UK / Ireland ForecastUK / Ireland Forecast


UK EconomyUK Economy –– The OutlookThe OutlookUK Economy UK Economy The OutlookThe Outlook• Interest Rates

• Rates are unlikely to change during at least the next two quarters.

• Industrial OutputAnswering the CBI’s latest Industrial Trends Survey, 32% of UK

manufacturers said they expected the volume of output to fall over thenext three months while 27% said it should increase Although thenext three months, while 27% said it should increase. Although theresulting balance of -5% represents a slight fall in output, it is the leastnegative prediction since June 2008 (+2%). Demand remains veryweak however, with a balance of 54% of manufacturers reporting thattotal order books are below normal This was a slight improvement on C ar pro duct io n- ro lling year total order books are below normal. This was a slight improvement onJuly's 17-year low (-59%) but marked the seventh consecutive monththat orders have remained significantly below par. Export order booklevels have also remained feeble, despite the relative weakness ofSterling with a balance of 48% reporting them to be below normal

to tals(So urce: SM M T Ltd)

1500

1600

1700

Sterling, with a balance of 48% reporting them to be below normal.

The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders in its July report said“The slowdown in the rate of decline of UK car production reflects theimpact of the scrappage incentive schemes in place across Europe 1000

1100

1200

1300

1400T o t al Expo rt

impact of the scrappage incentive schemes in place across Europe.The UK motor industry is starting to stabilise but remains fragile.Industry needs government to deliver support through the AutomotiveAssistance Programme and encourage banks to provide access tomuch needed finance and credit ”

800

900

1000

'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09


much needed finance and credit.

UK GDP projection based on market UK GDP projection based on market i ii iinterest rate expectationsinterest rate expectations

GDP was estimated to have fallen by 0.8% in 2009 Q2.D d i i t th d th t f thDownward revisions to growth around the turn of the yearindicated that the recession was deeper than previouslythought. Nominal spending was estimated to have fallen by4% in the year to 2009 Q1. But business surveyssuggested that the trough in output was near.This chart shows the Monetary Policy Committee’s bestcollective judgement for four-quarter GDP growth,assuming that Bank Rate follows a path implied by marketrates and the stock of assets purchased through theissuance of central bank reserves reachesissuance of central bank reserves reaches£175 billion and remains at that level throughout theforecast period.The considerable stimulus from the easing of monetary andfiscal policy and the past depreciation of sterling shouldlead to a reco er in economic acti it

The fan chart depicts the probability of various outcomes for GDP growth. To the left of the first verticaldashed line the distrib tion reflects the likelihood of re isions to the data o er the past to the right it

Source : Bank of England Inflation Report August 2009 – BOE Website

lead to a recovery in economic activity.

dashed line, the distribution reflects the likelihood of revisions to the data over the past; to the right, itreflects uncertainty over the evolution of GDP growth in the future. If economic circumstances identicalto today’s were to prevail on 100 occasions, the MPC’s best collective judgment is that the matureestimate of GDP growth would lie within the darkest central band on only 10 of those occasions. The fanchart is constructed so that outturns are also expected to lie within each pair of the lighter green areason 10 occasions. Consequently, GDP growth is expected to lie somewhere within the entire fan on 90out of 100 occasions. The bands widen as the time horizon is extended, indicating the increasinguncertainty about outcomes The second dashed line is drawn at the two year point of the projection

May Chart for comparison


uncertainty about outcomes. The second dashed line is drawn at the two-year point of the projection.

UK Currency TrendsUK Currency TrendsUK Currency TrendsUK Currency Trends• Sterling hit a low point against the

major world currencies in Januarymajor world currencies in January2009.

• Since Mid March the value of Sterlinghas been strengthening against bothhas been strengthening against boththe Euro and the US$.

• As expected there was a further bigincrease in the second quarter but theincrease in the second quarter but theexpectation is that there will be aperiod of some stability during Q3.

• A range of about $1 60 $1 70 per £ is• A range of about $1.60 – $1.70 per £ isexpected to be maintained throughoutthe remainder of 2009.

Source : Financial Times 19/8/09


DTAM Growth by Quarter Q101DTAM Growth by Quarter Q101 –– Q409Q409DTAM Growth by Quarter Q101 DTAM Growth by Quarter Q101 Q409 Q409

12

16

(% change relative to same quarter prior year)

-4

0

4

8

12

-20

-16

-12

-8

% c

hang

e

40

-36

-32

-28

-24

Actual F/C Max F/C Min Expect Max Expect Min

-40

Q1-

01

Q2-

01

Q3-

01

Q4-

01

Q1-

02

Q2-

02

Q3-

02

Q4-

02

Q1-

03

Q2-

03

Q3-

03

Q4-

03

Q1-

04

Q2-

04

Q3-

04

Q4-

04

Q1-

05

Q2-

05

Q3-

05

Q4-

05

Q1-

06

Q2-

06

Q3-

06

Q4-

06

Q1-

07

Q2-

07

Q3-

07

Q4-

07

Q1-

08

Q2-

08

Q3-

08

Q4-

08

Q1-

09

Q2-

09

Q3-

09

Q4-

09

Quarter

This graph has been updated to show our revised forecast and expectation


DTAM Growth by Quarter for 2009DTAM Growth by Quarter for 2009

12

16

Actual F/C Max F/C Min Expect Max Expect Min

(% change relative to same quarter prior year)

0

4

8

hang

e

-16

-12

-8

-4

% c

h

-20

Q1-07 Q2-07 Q3-07 Q4-07 Q1-08 Q2-08 Q3-08 Q4-08 Q1-09 Q2-09 Q3-09 Q4-09

Quarter

Our forecast made in November 2008 was made on Min Mid MaxOur forecast made in November 2008 was made onthe basis that Q1 09 would be the nadir. Howeverthe poor market conditions produced a furtherdecline in Q2 09 and a decline of 15.3% for H1 09

Q1 Act -12% -12% -12%Q2 Act -18% -18% -18%

Q3 12% 10% 8%relative to H1 08.We anticipate an improving position in the 2nd halfbut still a decrease on H2 08.

Q3 -12% -10% -8%Q4 -8% -6% -4%

H1 Act -15.3% -15.3% -15.3%09’ TOTAL -12.8% -11.8% -10.9%


UK / IrelandUK / Ireland Authorised Distribution TrendsAuthorised Distribution TrendsUK / Ireland UK / Ireland -- Authorised Distribution TrendsAuthorised Distribution Trends

• More Consolidation and Business Reorganisation by Ag yand A…

• Creating More Business Opportunities for “local”Authorised Distributors…

• Line-card Realignment Ongoing…• Continued Increase in Demand Creation Services…• High Levels of Design Activity with Customers…• Volume Production gone but Tier 2 CEM’s improving…• “Local” Diversification into new markets / business areas…• New Business Models Required / Emerging…



Thank You!


Th F h M k tTh F h M k tThe French Market….The French Market….

Presented by:Presented by:

Didi G liDidier GoguelinVice President SPDEI Vice President SPDEI -- FranceFrance

International Distribution of Electronics Association 12

SPDEI : association of French electronic distributorsSPDEI : association of French electronic distributors

• SPDEI is a member of the FIEEC (federation of 21 French(associations representing the manufacturers and distributors of theelectrical, electronic and communication industries)

• SPDEI: more than 30 members (all the main actors of the Frenchdistribution network). SPDEI represents 70% of the DTAM

• French DTAM 2007: € 1,025 millionsF h DTAM 2008 € 850 illi i 17%• French DTAM 2008: € 850 millions, i.e. -17%

• SPDEI members returns 2007: € 700 millionsSPDEI members returns 2007: € 700 millions• SPDEI members returns 2008: € 600 millions, i.e. -14%


French Market Billing Trend

Q2 09 / Q1 09 - 14%

French Market Billing Outlook

2st HY 09 / 2st HY 08 slight improvement - 15%Q2 09 / Q2 08 - 26%1st HY 09 / 1st HY 08 - 25%

g p

No major positive change before 2010


French Electronics Distribution NetworkFrench Electronics Distribution NetworkFrench Electronics Distribution Network…French Electronics Distribution Network…

Gl b l & l

Volume Volume needsleaving the market

Global & volumedistributors

S Market more andMore

Regional distributors

Specia

MoreFragmented!

Catalogue distributors

Regional distributors

alists Maintain marketPrices : How to

createCatalogue distributors

Breadth of range

added value?


Breadth of range

French Distributors Market Challenges…French Distributors Market Challenges…gg

- Industrial and automotive market segments, which represent 65% of the DTAM are severely depressed

- Need to create added value for the new developing market t i li hti di l t t tisegments, e.g. energy saving, lighting, medical, transportation,

defence & aerospace

P t t k t i i t E di t ib t- Protect market prices against non European distributors (exchange rate impact and different sourcing way)

P t t k t i t t f iti- Protect market against counterfeiting

- Need to rapidly be part of the e-commerce environment (technical information and support for designers)information and support for designers)

- Need to be able to touch the generation Y (twitter, blogs, chat …)


Actions being taken by French Distributors to reduce the effect Actions being taken by French Distributors to reduce the effect of the downturnof the downturnof the downturn…of the downturn…

• Increase links with other associations, e.g. GIXEL,SNESE, GFIE ...

• SPDEI to be part of FIEEC: lobbying• Promote electronics through the national exhibition• Launch of technical days (mini exhibitions for designers)

in cooperation between manufacturers, associations anddistributorsdistributors

• Set up a chart of distribution (to control counterfeiting &market prices)

• Promote distribution to get support from manufacturerswho cannot address a market so fragmented



Thank You!


Nordic DTAMNordic DTAMand and

Economic O tlookEconomic O tlookEconomic Outlook…Economic Outlook…

Lena NorderLena NorderLena NorderLena NorderIM Association, SwedenIM Association, Sweden


NordicNordic –– IntroductionIntroductionNordic Nordic IntroductionIntroduction

Sweden DenmarkNorwayNorway Finland


Average Daily Sales Average Daily Sales –– By CountryBy Country


Nordic Nordic –– Book to BillBook to Bill


Nordic Average Daily Sales Nordic Average Daily Sales -- PassivesPassives


Nordic Average Daily Sales Nordic Average Daily Sales -- ConnectorsConnectors


Nordic Average Daily Sales Nordic Average Daily Sales –– EE--MechMech


Nordic Average Daily Sales Nordic Average Daily Sales –– EE--MechMech


Nordic Average Daily Sales Nordic Average Daily Sales -- SemiconductorsSemiconductors


Nordic Average Daily Sales Nordic Average Daily Sales -- AllAll


NordicNordic –– In a European ContextIn a European ContextNordic Nordic In a European ContextIn a European ContextGrowth Q2 09 compared with

Growth Q3 08 to Q2 09 compared

with Q3 07 toQ2 08 with Q3 07 to Q2 08

Germany -31.7% -17.55%

UK -18.5% -8.97%

Italy -42 2% -28 49%Italy 42.2% 28.49%

France -16.0% -20.19%

Nordic 25 8% 10 16%Nordic -25.8% -10.16%

The IDEA statistics for the past twelve months compared tothe previous 12 months shows that the UK and Nordic havedeclined much less than the other countries


declined much less than the other countries.

S dS d S tS t DTAM k tDTAM k tSweden: Sweden: Sectors Sectors –– DTAM marketDTAM market

8%

45%20%

8%Telecom 45%

Automotive 20%

Military 7%

20%

7%

Military 7%

Industry 20%

Home Applience 8%20%

DTAM = 50% of TAMDTAM = 50% of TAM


What’s up on the Swedish market?What’s up on the Swedish market?What s up on the Swedish market?What s up on the Swedish market?• - There is hope!

• Ericsson - dominates telecom in Sweden - Mobile systems + Mobile phones (SonyEricsson)- Mobile systems + Mobile phones (SonyEricsson)- New CEO announced : Executive Vice President Bert Nordberg (Oct 15)N C l H i S bNow: Carl-Henric Svanberg

• Traditional Industry: fairly stable market• Traditional Industry: fairly stable market

• Automotive – cars: oh dear!

• Expanding: Medical/Biotech, Energy and Security


Issues in the IM Association in short:Issues in the IM Association in short:Issues in the IM Association, in short: Issues in the IM Association, in short:

WEEE R HS REACH• WEEE, RoHS, REACH…

• Payment terms: 30 days• Payment terms: 30 days. Distributors are not banks!(Everybody loosers in the end…)

• New event, on demand from the market:S E E – Scandinavian Electronics EventS.E.E. – Scandinavian Electronics EventStockholm Fair Apr 13-15 2010

• 2010: IM (distrib.) + EIF (design, manufact.) = Trade Association Swedish Electronics



Thank You!


The German Distribution MarketThe German Distribution Market2009 - 2010


PCB, Thin Film HybridsPCB, Thin Film Hybrids

Electromechanical

Passive

Semiconductor


ConsumerIT

Automotive

Industrial

Telecommunication


International Distribution of Electronics AssociationSource: Gartner Dataquest June 2009


Thank you very much for your Attention!

Any Questions?

Fachverband der Bauelemente Distribution (FBDi) e.V.ac e ba d de aue e e te st but o ( ) eSankt Margaretenweg 9D 85375 [email protected]@Tel +49 (0)8165 670233Fax +49 (0)8165 670234


Italy - Economic Outlook&&

Assodel-ANIE - view of electronic mkt


OECD Data Aug.’09

• .. an already weaker economy has been hit by the global crisis two quarters earlier then others Q2’08global crisis two quarters earlier then others .. Q2 08• 2009 projected at -5.2%; 2010 at +0.4/0.5%.


EU27 Total Electronic Production

EU27 in 2008272 5 B€≈ 272.5 B€

Italy = 8%

It l

Italy = 8%≈ 21.8 B€

Italy Czech Rep.Czech Rep.

ANIE d t EUROSTAT t ti ti


ANIE data on EUROSTAT statistics

Total Electronic ComponentsANIE data (value at current prices)

2006 2007 2008 2007/2006 2008/2007Million €uro Percent change

DOMESTIC MARKET 3,380 3,200 2,922 -5.3% -8.7%MARKETTOTALREVENUE 5,297 5,128 4,615 -3.2% -10.0%

EXPORT 4 695 4 564 3 834 2 8% 16 0%EXPORT 4,695 4,564 3,834 -2.8% -16.0%IMPORT 2,778 2,637 2,141 -5.1% -18.8%BALANCE OF 1 917 1 927 1 693BALANCE OF TRADE 1,917 1,927 1,693


Semiconductor – Italy TAMANIE & Assodel data (value at current prices)

Mil.€ 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 Q/Q-1% Q/QY-1%TAM ANIE (OEM)*1 101,2 100,2 87,5 82,9 82,1 -1,0% -18,9%

DTAM Assodel*2 209,1 155,0 147,3 148,1 123,6 -16,5% -40,9%

TAMItalia 310,3 255,2 234,9 231,1 205,7 -11,0% -33,7%

Totale Italia YTD 627,3 882,5 1117,4 231,1 436,8

YTD/YTD 1% 27 1% 30 4%YTD/YTD-1% -27,1% -30,4%

Suppplyers revenue directly from OEM

Q/Q-1 Q/QY-1 YTD-1,0% -18,9% -18,8%

-16,5% -40,9% -35,9%-11 0% -33 7% -30 4%

ASSODELTAM

ANIE (OEM)

11,0% 33,7% 30,4%TAM


• Q/Q-1 = on previous q.ter • Q/QY-1 = on same q.ter previous year• YTD = YTD on same period previous year

Semiconductor – Italy DTAM & TAMANIE & Assodel data (value at current prices)

Q/Q-1 Q/QY-1 YTD-1,0% -18,9% -18,8%ANIE (OEM)

400-5%0%

1,0% 18,9% 18,8%-16,5% -40,9% -35,9%-11,0% -33,7% -30,4%

ASSODELTAM

ANIE (OEM)

200

300

di E

uro

-20%-15%-10%-5%

100

200

Mili

oni d

35%-30%-25%-20%

0 -40%-35%

ANIE (OEM) 120.267 114.105 114.145 106.526 101.985 101.193 100.176 87.531 82.947 82.091

1Q-07 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q-08 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q-09 2Q

ASSODEL 232.502 222.807 185.130 187.762 215.035 209.118 154.982 147.341 148.136 123.646TAM 352.768 336.912 299.275 294.288 317.020 310.311 255.158 234.873 231.083 205.737Q/QY-1 -2,3% -8,7% -2,9% -5,9% -10,1% -7,9% -14,7% -20,2% -27,1% -33,7%


Semiconductor – Italy by mktANIE & Assodel data

1Q’09/1Q’08Automotive -27.6%Industrial -25.0%Consumer -43 6%Consumer 43.6%Telecom -15.9%Other -19.5%

• Automotive & Industrial – almost 80% of total – heavily yhit by the drop of export and internal demand.• ..


Italian Market Challenges....

Issue No1: lack of liquidity: Issue No1: lack of liquidity: SME (the customers) in the need of financing, Banking system exaggeratedly cautious.

Need to intensify promotion while reducing manpower.

Need to support customers in rapid conversion of their product’s portfolio.

Invest in dedicated support to the newly emerging markets: LED lighting, PhotoVoltaic generation, Energy efficient design: motor control, inverters, …..


Actions by Assodel...

Assodel being part of ANIE* (lobbying), Assodel being part of ANIE (lobbying), Assodel being part of IDEA (internationalization), Support promotion activities thru Technology Forum:pp p gy

Power (and Photovoltaic); Opto&Display/Lumen (LED Tech.) RF&Wireless Mechatronic …..

A d l F d ti Assodel Foundation To promote and support technical courses for customers and distributors getting access to public funds

* ANIE = National Association of Electric & Electronic Industries


id i t t & l t t thid i t t & l t t th

Th A d l FOUNDATION j t

… ideas, instruments & proposal to strengtheneven in crisis time

Th A d l FOUNDATION j t

… ideas, instruments & proposal to strengtheneven in crisis time

The Assodel FOUNDATION projectElectronic Education & Training

The Assodel FOUNDATION projectElectronic Education & Training

.. the link among the subjects of the Electronic Community

.. the link among the subjects of the Electronic Community

WHO KNOWS WHOINNOVATE

WHO

WHO KNOWS WHOINNOVATE

WHOWHO

SUPPLYESPRODUCESWHO

SUPPLYESPRODUCES




Thank You!


Documents

International Electronic Component Di t ib tiDistribution IDEA Europe.pdf · 2009. 10. 11. · Growth Q3 08 to Q2 09 compared with Q3 07 to Q2 08 with Q3 07 to Q2 08 Germany -31.7%