International CLIVAR International CLIVAR updateupdate

(Prospects for 2009-2013)(Prospects for 2009-2013)

Jim HurrellJim Hurrell

Howard Cattle, Tim Palmer, Martin Visbeck Howard Cattle, Tim Palmer, Martin Visbeck

and Valery Detemmermanand Valery Detemmerman

jhurrell@ucar.edujhurrell@ucar.edu

International CLIVAR Co-ChairInternational CLIVAR Co-Chair

National Center for Atmospheric ResearchNational Center for Atmospheric Research

Boulder, CO USABoulder, CO USAUS CLIVAR Summit

15-17 July 2008Irvine, CA

OutlineOutline

• Overview of CLIVAROverview of CLIVAR

• Activities, Achievements and PlansActivities, Achievements and Plans– Contributions to WCRP cross-cutsContributions to WCRP cross-cuts

– See CLIVAR Report to JSC-29See CLIVAR Report to JSC-29

• Discussion Discussion – 22ndnd CLIVAR Science Conference CLIVAR Science Conference

– Future evolution of CLIVAR (and WCRP)Future evolution of CLIVAR (and WCRP)

Activities and Achievements Activities and Achievements

• Prominent display of CLIVAR science• Leadership role as CLAs, LAs, and CAs• Nobel Peace Prize

WGCM: CMIP3 multi-model dataset – coordination of integrations, data collection, and analysis for IPCC AR4 (Meehl et al., BAMS, 2007)

16 modeling groups, 23 models, 35+ Tb data

Access: 1,000+ scientists / 300+ papers

ACC – IPCC AR4

GSOP: Carbon data synthesis GO-SHIP

Basins panels Impact of climate change on natural modes Abrupt climate change (AIP)

Decadal Prediction

WGCM-WGSIP/IGBP (AIMES): Development of Decadal Prediction

Experiments Aspen Global Change Institute WorkshopAspen Global Change Institute Workshop

Climate Prediction to 2030: Is it possible, Climate Prediction to 2030: Is it possible, what are the scientific issues, and how what are the scientific issues, and how

would those predictions be used?would those predictions be used?

June 23-28, 2008June 23-28, 2008

Gerald Meehl, Ron Stouffer, Lisa Goddard, and James Gerald Meehl, Ron Stouffer, Lisa Goddard, and James MurphyMurphy

Activities and Achievements Activities and Achievements

Activities and Achievements Activities and Achievements

Decadal PredictionAIP: Coordinated Monitoring/Predictability of AMOC

Cunningham et al. 2007Cunningham et al. 2007 Hurrell et al. 2008: Courtesy Tom DelworthHurrell et al. 2008: Courtesy Tom Delworth

Decadal Prediction

Temp

Salinity

12m-rm seasonal anom: NPAC Averaged salinity over the top 300m

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000Time

-0.10

-0.05

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

ukdpukoicfcs2cfas2ecco50y

gfdlsodaecmfaecmfcukgs

ingvmri-eccoSIOcfasamct2

mct3eccoJPLaeccoJPLceccoMITGMAO

sdv ensm = 0.010s/n ensm = 0.423

sdv all = 0.024s/n all = 1.015

spread = 0.023

GSOP: Assessment of quality of ocean syntheses2nd Synthesis Evaluation Workshop (MIT, 9/07)

12m-rm seasonal anom: NATL Averaged temperature over the top 300m

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000Time

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

ukdpukoicfcs2cfas2ecco50y

gfdlsodaecmfaecmfcukgs

ingvmri-eccoSIOcfasamct2

mct3eccoJPLaeccoJPLceccoMITGMAO

sdv ensm = 0.164s/n ensm = 1.620

sdv all = 0.206s/n all = 2.028

spread = 0.101

Mid-Lat Upper Ocean Atlantic Anomalies (Upper 300 m)

Activities and Achievements

Seasonal Prediction

• What factors are limiting our ability to improve seasonal predictions for societal benefit?

• What factors are limiting our ability to use seasonal predictions for societal benefit?

• 180 Attendees from across WCRP, 30 Countries

WGSIP: WCRP Workshopon Seasonal Prediction

Barcelona, Spain June 2007

• Maximum Predictability Has Not Been AchievedInteractions within climate system components (cf GEWEX, SPARC, CliC)

• WCRP position paper on Seasonal Prediction

Activities and AchievementsActivities and Achievements

Objectives• Provide baseline assessment of seasonal prediction capabilities using the best available models and data for initialization• Provide framework for assessing current and planned observing systems• Integrate process studies/field campaigns into model improvements• Provide experimental framework for focused research on how various components of the climate system interact and affect one another• Provide a test bed for evaluating IPCC class models in seasonal prediction

The Climate-system Historical Forecast The Climate-system Historical Forecast ProjectProject

Certain elements of the CHFP are already part of various WCRP activities• e.g., GLACE-2, SPARC & CliC activities, JSC Decadal Prediction, etc.

Goal is to leverage, coordinate and synthesize these ongoing activities into a focused seasonal prediction experiment that incorporates all elements of the climate system.

First necessary steps in developing seamless weekly-to-decadal prediction

• Best Possible Observationally Based Initialization Best Possible Observationally Based Initialization

of all the Components of Climate Systemof all the Components of Climate System– Role for each of core WCRP projectsRole for each of core WCRP projects

– Key: No future information after initializationKey: No future information after initialization

• Seven Month Lead Ensemble (10 member) Fully Seven Month Lead Ensemble (10 member) Fully

Interactive Predictions of the Climate SystemInteractive Predictions of the Climate System– Predictions Initialized Four Times per Year for Each Year 1979-Predictions Initialized Four Times per Year for Each Year 1979-

Present Present

– Some Groups Extend to Decadal (JSC crosscut)Some Groups Extend to Decadal (JSC crosscut)

– Intermediate complexity/Uncoupled experiments not excludedIntermediate complexity/Uncoupled experiments not excluded

• Agreed upon output (variables, frequency, …)Agreed upon output (variables, frequency, …)

• International Multi-Institution ParticipationInternational Multi-Institution Participation

• Diagnostic sub-projects being developedDiagnostic sub-projects being developed – will also include extensive interactions among WCRP project will also include extensive interactions among WCRP project

panelspanels

Climate system Historical Forecast Climate system Historical Forecast ProjectProject

Seasonal PredictionPIP: Cracking barriers of ENSO prediction

Simple ENSO prediction model:Nino 3.4 SST (DJF) = a WWV(FMA) + b MJO wpac (AMJ) + R

• ENSO prediction forecast web site to:• provide probabilistic forecasts• assess skill of different techniques

• White paper on ENSO metrics

• Hindcast experiments on role of MJO in onset of El Niño (with AAMP)

• Western tropical Pacific workshop and panel meeting (China, 2007)

• SPICE science and implementation plans and coordination with VOCALS

McPhaden et al. 2006)

Activities and AchievementsActivities and Achievements

Activities and Achievements Activities and Achievements

Seasonal PredictionUS CLIVAR: MJO WG

• Development of diagnostics for assessing MJO simulation fidelity and forecast skill in suite of coupled and uncoupled model simulations

• Development and operational implementation of MJO forecast metric

• Develop and coordinate model simulation and prediction experiments, in conjunction with model-data comparisons

• Promote utility of subseasonal and MJO forecasts in the context of seamless suite of predictions

• Workshop (Irvine, CA, Nov 2007)

Activities and AchievementsActivities and Achievements

Seasonal PredictionAIP: TAV and TACE

Progress on TACE (2006-2010): Enhanced observations (http://tace.ifm-geomar.de/index.html ) Biases in climate models and strategies to reduce them (http://www.clivar.org/organization/atlantic/TACE/tace.php)

AMMA-Ocean/TACE/PIRATA workshop: Karlsruhe, Germany 11/07

Major Activities and Achievements Major Activities and Achievements

MonsoonsIOP: Intraseasonal Variability

• Continued coordination and development of IndOOS• Identified understanding the heat budget of the upper ocean at intraseasonal time scales as a critical area of research• Contribute to A-AM predictability experimentsAAMP: Role in AMY, IMS

• Contributions to WCRP/THORPEX YOTC planning

• Work with US CLIVAR MJO WG; development of monsoon metrics for evaluation of simulations

• Evaluated DEMETER hindcast experiments to determine current skill in monsoon prediction

• Promoting coordinated A-AM seasonal prediction studies; links to IOP, PIP, GEWEX/MAHASRI – importance of initial land state

Activities and AchievementsActivities and Achievements

MonsoonsVAMOS: Annual Cycle of Convection over Americas

IASCLIP

Organization of Modeling Group for VAMOS (MGV)

Strategy integrates across all 4 science programs. Obj:

Integrate NAME-MESA-VOCALS modeling activities Integrate field programs to improve research models, data assimilation, analysis and operational forecasting Develop collaborations between VAMOS research community and operational centers

VOCALS: Multi-Scale Regional Climate Study

Planning for field campaign and associated modeling activities well advanced

Activities and AchievementsActivities and Achievements

Extremes

• Expanding the coverage of 27 core indices via regional workshops

• Contributes to capacity development in developing nations

• Detection work done with indices (influential in AR4 assessment)

• Indices also used by modeling groups to study projected changes in extremes (also entered into AR4 assessment)

• Planning of more regional workshops

• Indices and software are being distributed (via web)

ETCCDI

Activities and AchievementsActivities and Achievements

Extremes

Aims: Identify and characterize physical and dynamical mechanisms leading to drought and the mechanisms through which drought may change as climate changes.

Follow-on to CMEP: diagnose simulation of drought in current models.

17 projects funded (NOAA, NASA, NSF, DOE)

US CLIVAR: Drought in Coupled Models Project (DRICOMP)

Drought WG: Drought WG: http://www.usclivar.org/Organization/drought-wg.htmlhttp://www.usclivar.org/Organization/drought-wg.html

List of relevant model simulationsList of relevant model simulations

List of relevant observational data setsList of relevant observational data sets

List of proposed new runs, strategy, modeling groups, contacts, List of proposed new runs, strategy, modeling groups, contacts, datadata

• CLIVAR to seek major presence

– M. Visbeck on organizing committee and chair of program committee

• Theme

– Climate Prediction and Information for Decision Making

• Subthemes

– Advancing climate prediction and information service– Climate risk management strategies and information needs– Climate impacts and adaptive strategies– Mainstreaming climate predictions and information services

DiscussionWorld Climate Conference (2009)World Climate Conference (2009)

• 11stst Conference a success Conference a success

• Discussions have begun on desire to hold a 2Discussions have begun on desire to hold a 2ndnd CLIVAR CLIVAR Science ConferenceScience Conference

• Venue and time not yet determined (Europe in 3-4Venue and time not yet determined (Europe in 3-4 years?)years?) • Important to engage the (CLIVAR) community inImportant to engage the (CLIVAR) community in providing assessments of achievements and providing assessments of achievements and identification of major outstanding questionsidentification of major outstanding questions

• “ “Transition” meeting? Transition” meeting?

22ndnd CLIVAR Science Conference CLIVAR Science Conference

Discussion

Future EvolutionFuture Evolution• Urgent need for vision of how WCRP will evolve

• Affecting how core projects should focus and evolve • Guiding strategy is “Evolution not Revolution”• Transition requires more coordination across projects/programs• Dialogue between US and International CLIVAR key• Opportunity for US CLIVAR (and agencies) to provide input• Projects should play a major role

• Need to keep the community “on board”: identify key science questions• Preserve what is working: no need to “re-invent” core activities still needed 5 years from now• Science needs to remain the goal: deliverables are the output

• U.S. CLIVAR organizational structure: strawman?

Discussion

Thank you!Thank you!

www.clivar.org