RESTRICTED E

Report No. TO-419a

This report was prepared for use within the Bank and its affiliated organizations.They do not accept responsibility for its accuracy or completeness. The report may

not be published nor may it be quoted as representing their views.

INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT

INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION

APPRAISAL OF A HIGHWAY PROJECT

EAST PAKISTAN

May 18, 1964

Department of Technical Operations

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CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS

1 Pakistan Rupee = U. S. $0. 211 U.S. Dollar = PRs. 4.76PRs. 1 million = U.S. $210, 000

EAST PAKISTAN

HIGHIAY PROJECT

Table of Contents

Page

SUlEARY i

I. INTRODUCTION 1

II. BACKGROUND 1

A. The Province 1B. Roads and Road Transport 2C. Maintenance 5D. Design and Construction 6E. Administrative Problems 7F. The Five-Year Plans 8G. The Dacca-Chittagong Road 9

III. THE PROJECT 9

A. Description 9B. Cost Estimates 13C. Administration and Execution 15

IV. ECONOMIC JUSTIFICATION 16

A. General 16B. The Dacca-Chittagong Road 17

V. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOITvENDATIONS 22

Tables

1. Motor Vehicle Statistics2. Design Standards for Dacca-Chittagong Highway3. List of Works and Cost Estimate

Maps

East Pakistan - Transportation SystemEast Pakistan - Dacca-Chittagong Highway

EAST PAKISTAN

APPRAISAL OF A HIGHWAY PROJECT

SUMMARY

1. The Government of Pakistan has asked the International DevelopmentAssociation to finance part of the cost of a highway project in East Pakistan.The project would consist of (i) the completion of a highway between Dacca andChittagong together with an extension to Narayanganj, (ii) the employment oftnanagement consultants to advise and assist the Roads and Highways Department(-t & H) of the Provincial Government, and (iii) the employment of consultingengineers to carry out feasibility studies of access to Dacca and Chittagong.

ii. The total cost of the project, including US$3.0 million equivalentfor taxes, is estimated at Us,45.5 million equivalent. The foreign exchangecost is US,22.5 million equivalent. The cost estimate is conservatively basedand includes a reasonable allowance for contingencies. The Government of EastPakistan will finance the project's local expenditures from its own budget.

iii. The consultants to carry out the design and supervision of the Dacca-Chittagong Highway and the management consultants will be selected by theGovernment subject to the approval of the Association.

iv. Road construction will, be carried out by contractors selected on thebasis of international competitive bidding.

v. Despite formidable geographical and human problems, the East Pakistaneconomy is growing. The Government intends to increase the future pace of de-velopment in the Province to achieve a higher rate of industrialization andself-sufficiency in agriculture. As a result it is expected that there will besufficient traffic to justify the construction of the project road. The de-velopment of road transport has been held back by a low-standard unconnectedrcad system, by lack of foreign exchange and, until recently, by route operatingcontrols. The Government intends to permit an increase in the size of the roadtransport fleet by 150% over the next five years.

vi. The organizational structure and operational practices of the Roadsand Highways Branch are both out-of-date and unsuited to modern highway con-struction and maintenance, A fundamental reorganization and reorientation ofplanning, construction and maintenance practices is needed to enable the R & Hto meet its responsibilities for the construction and maintenance of an ex-panding road system. For this reason, the employment of management consultantsis necessary.

vii. Feasibility studies for access to the center of Dacca and the port ofChittagong from the proposed highway are necessary because the streets of thesetwo cities are narrow and congested.

viii. The project provides a suitable basis for a development credit bythe Association of US322.5 millior equivalent.

I. INTRODUCTION

1. The Government of Pakistan has requested a credit from the Inter-national Development Association (IDA) to meet part of the cost of a high-way project in East Pakistan. The project consists of (i) the completionof a highway between Dacca and Chittagong together with a spur to theriver port of Narayanganj, (ii) the employment of management consultantsto advise the Roads and Highways Department (R & H) of the Provincial Go.vernment and (iii) the employment of consulting engineers to carry outfeasibility studies of access to Dacca and Chittagong.

2. Roads and road transport in East Pakistan have been studied bythe Bank in the course of the Ecx)nomic Missions to Pakistan in 1961 and1962. In 1960-61 a comprehensive transportation survey of East Pakistanwas made by Transportation Consultants Inc. (TCI) for the United StatesAgency for International Development (USAID), During the visit of theBank/IDA mission in 1962, the USAID indicated that it was interested in fi-nancing roads in East Pakistan. It assisted the Government in obtaininga series of feasibility studies of the roads comprising the main network.A number of these reports, which were prepared by three U.S. consultingfirms, became available late in 1963.

3e In November 1963 an IDA mission visited East Pakistan to ascer-tain whether a suitable road project was available. The IDA mission workedclosely with a USAID technical mission which was in Pakistan for the samepurpose. After discussions with the USAID resident missions in Karachiand Dacca, it was agreed that the Association should consider the Dacca-Chittagong road, and USAID the Dacca-Aricha road. Early this year USAIDinformed the Government that it was willing to consider assisting with thefinancing of the Dacca-Aricha road.

4. This report is based on the feasibility study of the Dacca-Chitta-gong and Nlayaranganj road prepared by Ammann & Whitney International Limited;the TCI report, and on the information obtained from the R & H and otherGovernment sources by Bank and IDA missions.

II. BACKGROUND

A. The Province

5. East Pakistan covers a land area of 55,000 sq. miles, which isabout the size of England. Almost all of the Province is a low deltaicplain crossed by some of the world's greatest rivers, their numerous tri-butaries and distributaries. The annual flooding of these rivers and thewidespread inundation of the surrounding countryside, together with thesilty soil and lack of suitable road building materials over much of thearea, make it both costly and difficult to construct and maintain a roadsystem.

6. The Province has a population of roughly 55 million people, 85percent of whom live in rural areas. The average population density isabout 1,000 per square mile, one of the highest in the world.

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7. The economy of East Pakistan is based on the agricultural pro-duction of foodstuffs, mainly rice for local consumption and jute for ex-port. While industrial production is growing it contributes only about10 percent to the provincial GNP at present. Industrialization is ex-pected to continue at a increasing pace but agriculture, inevitably, willremain the mainstay of the economy for a long time to come in order tofeed the population which is growing at 2.6 percent per year and is be-coming increasingly urbanized,

B. Roads and Road Transport

The Road System

8. In 1962 East Pakistan's road network of almost 3,500 miles wasmade up of 1,500 miles of main roads and 2,000 miles of secondary anddistrict roads. Much of the main road system consists of unconnectedstretches and isolated bridges, As a result there are only two routes inthe Province having a continuously connected road in excess of 100 milesin length.

9. Most of the main roads were constructed during the last 10 years.They were built to a substandard single or two-lane width with the resultthat many would have to be rebuilt to carry any significant volumes ofroad traffic. These main roads are generally paved and usable throughoutthe year except during abnormal flooding. Unfortunately, however, becauseof overloading, inadequate design and inferior construction, some of theroads, including their bridges, have been badly damaged.

10. The secondary and district road system consists of narrow embank-ments with single-lane earth or brick surfaces which are in an unsatisfac-tory condition and slender bridge structures of substandards quality.These roads are unsuitable for modern vehicle traffic and are not of all-weather class,

The Road Organization

11. In 1962 following the suggestion of an earlier IDA mission res-ponsibility for roads was transferred from the Ministry of Works, Powerand Irrigation to the Ministry of Railways, Waterways and Road Transport*.In the reorganization, the activities of the Roads and Buildings Depart-ment were separated and a new department created called Roads and Highways(R & H), Responsibility for the construction and maintenance of the roadsystem is now centralized in the office of the Chief Engineer of the R & H.

* Under its technical assistance program, the Bank is engaging a trans-portation economist to be assigned to Dacca on a cost sharing basis toadvise the Ministry on over-all transportation problems.

12. The above organizational changes were highly desirable for tworeasons. First, the operation of a modern road system requires the full-time efforts of those responsible for it. Secondly, closer coordinationis needed among the three main means of transport, particularly since inEast Pakistan the difficult topography and lack of funds make it essentialthat the various transport media be integrated so that they complement anddo not compete with each other.

13. The problems of building roads in East Pakistan are immense andwould tax the skills and knowledge of highly experienced engineering or-ganizations. As noted in the following sections of this report, neithermaintenance nor construction operations in East Pakistan have been carriedout satisfactorily, Both the USAID and IDA are in agreement as to theneed to strengthen the R & H. USAID has indicated that this would be anessential condition for its participation in the financing of the Dacca-Aricha Road. Following the reports on the findings of the IDA missions toPakistan in 1961 and 1962, the Provincial Government took the initial stepdescribed in paragraph 11 and called for proposals from consultants toassist in the reorganization and training of the R & H.

Road Transport

14. As of 1962, there were some 19,000 motor vehicles registered inEast Pakistan (see Table 1). About 75 percent of the total is registeredand operates in Dacca, Chittagong and Sylhet districts which are broadlywithin the sphere of influence of the project road. The commercial vehiclefleet consists partly of ex-wartime cannibalized trucks and buses. Thetrucks are generally 3-5 ton carrying capacity. In recent years regis-trations have been increasing as follows:

Compound1958 1962 Annual Increase

Automobiles 4,o60 6,570 13% p.a.Jeeps 1,070 2,160 19% p.a.Buses 1,330 2,570 18% p.a.Trucks 2,740 5,930 21% p.a.Other 1/ 450 1,980 45% p.a.

Total 9,650 19,210 18.5% p.a,

g Station wagons, delivery vans, ambulances, fuel tankers, etc.

Gasoline sales, which increased at an average rate of 14 percent per yearbetween 1957-62, confirm these figures, The major oil companies operatingin East Pakistan are understood to estimate an increase in motor fuel salesof around 17 percent per year up to 1965.

15. Despite the fact that the number of trucks registered has in-creased at about 20 percent per year over the past five years, the indus-try is still in its infancy. There are only 6,000 trucks to satisfy theneeds of 55 million people. In East Pakistan work is done by thousandsof country-boats which elsewhere would be performed by trucks. Verylittle of the present trucking operations could be classified as directlycompetitive with the railway which is operating at full capacity. Commoncarriers are unknown. Trucks are operated by contract carriers or areowned directly by business firms, plantations or the Government itselfo

16. Trucking is centered, at present, mainly around the carriage ofbricks, sand, gravel and other materials for the construction industry;the local pick-up and delivery of goods transhipped from other carriers;and the short-distance delivery of market produce into the bigger townswith back-hauls composed of small volumes of cheap consumer articles.Trucks are also used to move tea and sugar from the fields to mills orpacking stations and from there to railheads or waterway points. Thereis some evidence, however, that even under the present unfavorable envi-ronment for trucking importers in Chittagong and local manufacturing firmsare beginning to place an increasing importance on such factors as timesavings, the immediate availability of transport, less stringent packagingrequirements, door-to-door delivery, etc.

17. The limited use of trucking is the result of a number of factorswhich have been, or are about to be, changed. By 1960 there was onlyabout l,000 miles of main road in existence, with a further 300 in variousstages of construction. The network is made up of several unconnectedtrunk routes, none of which is longer than 210 miles and only two more than100 miles in length. About 1,000 miles of work is being undertaken in thecurrent plan period in an effort to connect the existing scattered piecesinto a workable network. This would increase the flexibility of transportoperations and give truckers an opportunity to employ their equipment moreproductively, since most trucks seem to operate less than 18,000 miles peryear at average journey distances under 50-60 miles. A second factorwhich limited the expansion of trucking was the recently abandoned systemof permits which restricted operations to within one Administrative Dis-trict. Difficulties in obtaining either import permits or foreign exchangeallocations for the purchase of vehicles and parts has been a third factor.However, in the next Plan period (1965-70), the Planning Commission anti-cipates expenditures of about Rs 120 million for the replacement of 3,000old trucks and buses, some Rs 400 million for the introduction of 12,000additional commercial vehicles and a further Rs 30 million on ancilliaryworkshop and servicing facilities will be allowed in East Pakistan, It canbe expected that many of these replacements and additions will be put intooperation in the Dacca and Chittagong areas since they are already the busi-est centers of economic activity and places where an unsatisfied demandfor highway transport exists.

18. The private automobile is unimportant in highway traffic and inthe stimulation of business, commercial or social relations because of the

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unconnected poor quality highway system. The Government has severely res-tricted foreign exchange for the purchase of private cars in order to con-serve the limited amounts available for more productive purposes. Importduties are punitive and make the purchase price of even the cheapestvehicle about forty times the average per capita annual income.

19. Buses, by contrast, are important, even though they number lessthan 3,000. There are no regular figures on passengers carried, passen-ger miles or miles of operation. The TCI Report estimated about 58.5million passenger journeys were made by bus, of which 26 million tookplace within the urban areas of Dacca,Chittagong and Sylhet. Averageannual mileages were only 16,500 per vehicle and average speeds around 15m.p.h. due to poor equipment, poor roads and unconnected roads and othertraffic impediments. This is a great under utilization of equipment andkeeps operating costs too high. Operations tend to radiate for shortdistances from the larger centers without any connections between the cen-ters themselves. They create very little long-haul competition for therailway.

C. Maintenance

20. Because most of the main road system in East Pakistan is stillunder construction, rosd maintenance has not become a significant part ofthe R & H's work as yet. Maintenance is almost non-existent except inextreme cases of damage by flood when special maintenance teams are orga-nized to carry out repairs. No amount of maintenance, however, can cor-rect the failures which have resulted from poor design and overloading.It is to be expected that maintenance of the main road system that is nowunder construction will be a costly and difficult operation because of de-ficiencies in construction.

21. Little or no maintenance equipment is used with practically allwork being done by hand labor. Average maintenance costs on a per-milebasis for different types of roads have not yet been developed.

22. The workshops at Dacca and Chittagong, which also serve otherpublic works departments, are well equipped with power tools and trainedmachinists. Spare parts warehouses are located at these shops, but areinadequately stocked. District shop facilities are almost nonexistent.

23. A large quantity of road maintenance and construction equipmentwas purchased some years ago, but none of it appears to be in use. Someunits have been cannibalized, some require major overhauls and othersonly minor repairs. This situation is a result of (i) an acute shortageof spare parts and skilled mechanics; (ii) a lack of equipment standard-ization and (iii) the practice of purchasing equipment with electrical andhydraulic controls which are too complicated for local mechanics to re-pair.

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D. Design and Construction

24, Until recently, the over-all planning and location of highwaysproceeded almost independently of that for railways and waterways. Theselection and location of roads was not based on a proper assessment ofeconomic needs so much as the joining of administrative centers. Roadconstruction has been viewed, to some extent, as a "make-work" programand a means of injecting income into some of the poorer areas.

25. The design standards employed have been rarely based on an ap-praisal of the importance of the road in the over-all highway system orupon its anticipated traffic. This lack of attention to the selection ofappropriate design standards has resulted in inconsistencies and inadequa-cies. 1Main roads are being paved with reinforced concrete to a single-lane width on a base consisting of two layers of local brick. This typeof pavement is very costly. The cement and coal used for brick makinghave to be imported, and sand and aggregate have to be shipped in fromsources often a hundred or more miles away. Consideration is now beinggiven to widening the pavements of certain roads now under constructionafter the scattered stretches have already been completed.

26. The roadway designs and specifications employed are generallyantiquated and are based on the use of hand labor. With few exceptions,roads are designed for five-ton axle loading and restricted vehicle lengthsand thus do not hold up under the heavier type vehicles now being import-ed. Rule of thumb judgements rather than specific soil investigationsare generally the criteria for design. Insufficient attention is paidto the crucial factor of drainage, As a result embanlknents are sometimesbuilt too low, ditches too shallow and drainage structures too small.

27. In some parts of East Pakistan, where a third of the countryis flooded annually to a considerable depth, the design of roads presentscomplex problems. If they are to be open all-weather and to survive theannual floods, they must be constructed on high embanlknents with ampleprovision for drainage to allow flood waters to pass. Many bridges andculverts have been under-designed so that they are damaged by flood waterswhich, when obstructed, create furtherflooding upstream and further damageto the road system.

28. With few exceptions, roads are built almost entirely with handlabor. The labor force is hard working and remarkable feats of embankmentand bridge construction have been accomplished with little or no equip-ment. Apart from brick makers and brick layers, workmen are largely un-skilled. Labor and local materials are generally provided by contractorswith the Government supplying some of the imported materials and, sometimes,equipment on a rental basis. The contractors are generally small localentrepreneurs. A few larger firms with foreign connections are appearing.

29. Equipment is limited to a few essential units such as rollers,concrete mixers and trucks. The availability of earth moving equipment

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would not change the standard practice of building embankments with road-

side materials as better materials are not usually available within a

reasonable haulage distance. A widespread failure of pavements has oc-curred because embankments are not compacted, an operation which can only

be properly done by compaction equipment.

30. Field inspection of work is inadequate or non-existent. Fieldlaboratories are not available and little use is made of the researchlaboratory in Dacca. Established techniques of scheduling, progress re-porting and follow-up are generally not in use.

31. The cost of road construction varies widely, but averages overRs 400,000 per mile for a single-lane concrete paved road on a high em-banknent with frequent culverts and bridging. The inevitable high costof road construction in East Pakistan makes it essential that roads shouldbe properly designed, built and maintained.

E. Administrative Problems

32. IDA missions to East Pakistan have found that both constructionand maintenance of the road system was severely handicapped by out-modedor inadequate legislation relating to such matters as (i) the acquisitionof right-of-way for new roads; (ii) encroachment on existing rights-of-way; and (iii) the regulation of motor vehicles, including size, weights

and speeds. These deficiencies have resulted in delays to road construc-tion works, unnecessary congestion on heavily trafficked road sectionsand accelerated structural failures, particularly of pavements.

33. Following discussions with the last IDA mission, the Governmentproceeded to take prompt remedial action. Late in 1963, the East Bengal(Emergency) Requisition of Property Act was enacted. The legislation de-bars the ordinary civil courts from taking action on any suit objectingto land acquisition, and permits recourse for an injunction to the HighCourt only on the grounds that the acquisition is not for a public pur-pose. This should greatly limit the possibility of obstruction to landacquisition for roads.

34. Encroachment is an especially difficult problem in East Pakistanbecause during the monsoons roadway embankments are often the only landabove water for miles around. This results in the right-of-way, includingthe shoulders and even the pavement, being used for markets, for the pro-

cessing and drying of materials and as storage areas and transfer pointsfrom country-boat to truck. The R & H itself contributes to the problemas it maintains large stockpiles of brick, coal and gravel on the roadshoulders. The Government has indicated that it would remove all illegalbuildings from the right-of-way and that spur or lay-bys would be cons-tructed off new highways every few miles as needed for the purpose ofmarkets, storage, etc. It is also understood that the R & H has beeninstructed to use greater care in the future stockpiling of materials alongthe roadside,

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35. The Government has recognized the need for effective vehicle re-gulations and enforcements. A special committee set up last year has al-ready reported to the Communications and Transport Department. Its recom-mendations together with those of the management consultants will be sentto the Law Department for the preparation of necessary legislation.

F. The Five-Year Plans

36. The Government's First Five-Year Plan (1955-60) provided forthe construction of 1,150 miles of new roads in East Pakistan at a costof Rs 165 million. At the end of the Plan period the status of the roadprogram was as follows:

MilesNew roads (completed) -663New roads (to be started) 1,560

2,225

37. The program consisted mainly of the construction and improvementof network of five trunk roads. The objective was to link together allthe major ports, cities and administrative centers throughout the Province.The program was much too ambitious. A major fault was to start work on alarge number of scattered sections in an effort to benefit as many dis-tricts as possible at the same time. The result was a large number of un-connected sections in various stages of completion.

38. The Second Five-Year Plan (1960-65) provided for a road programas shown below at a total cost of Rs 250 million:

Miles

New roads (already started) 740New roads 130

870

39. Because of the problems encountered in executing the First Plan,the mileage of roads in progress was greatly reduced by stopping construc-tion of the less important roads and concentrating on the completion ofthe main roads so as to produce a connected network. Even then, work wastoo widely spread, and,because of the long lead time needed to build themissing stretches, the main network still consists of numerous unconnectedsections. Furthermore, the use of some completed sections has been pre-vented by flood damage which has caused washouts and damaged pavements andbridges. The present situation is primarily a product of poor initialplanning and serious deficiencies in execution.

40. Both the Central and Provincial Governments had become increasing-ly concerned during the past two years over the unsatisfactory results inthe execution of the road part of the Plan. They had also become awarethat this situation might prevent them from obtaining international fundsto finance road works. In early 1963, therefore, the Provincial Govern-

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ment engaged three U.S. consulting firms to carry out feasibility studiesof a large mileage of main roads most of which has been under constructionover the past 10 years. These studies were completed by the end of theyear and have been used by USAID and the Association as the basis for thepreparation of road projects.

G. The Dacca-Chittagong Road

41. One of the highest priority items in the past and present Planhas been the construction of a road 18 miles long from Demra near Daccato Daudkandi where it would connect with an existing road to Chittagong.-The Demra-Daud'iandi section (see map) is located across low lying groundsubject to heavy flooding by the three large rivers which cut through it.The section, which is scheduled for completion by mid-1965, is about 85 per-cent completed, not including the three river crossings on which the Go-vernment had originally planned to install ferries. Construction beganabout five years ago and is being carried out by local contractors underthe direction of the R & H.

42. At the present time, Dacca-Chittagong traffic by-passes the sec-tion under construction by using a recently inaugurated ferry servicebetween Narayanganj (the most important river port serving the Daccaarea) and Daudkandi, The road from Daudkandi to Chittagong consists ofa single-lane pavement of varying width on a narrow embankment. It con-tains a large number of sharp curves which are quite unnecessary in suchflat country. Bridges are narrow, inadequate and,because of steep approaches,they obstruct sight distances. The free movement of traffic is greatlyhindered through many towns and villages by encroachments on the right-of-way and by heavy pedestrian and bicycle rickshaw traffic.

43. The completion of a highway suitable for high-speed heavilyloaded traffic between Dacca and Chittagong involves (i) the construc-tion of a new highway between Dacca and Demra, (ii) the completion of thesection between Demra and Daudkandi, including the crossing of major ri-vers by bridges or ferries and (iii) the reconstruction of the existingsection from Daudkandi to Chittagong. This work was the subject of afeasibility study carried out by Ammann and Whitney.

III. THE PROJECT

A. Description

44. The project consists of (i) the completion of a 150-mile high-way between Dacca and Chittagong together with a 4.8 mile extension toNarayanganj, (ii) the employment of management consultants for a three-year period to advise and assist the R & H on matters of highway orga-nization and operations and (iii) the employment of consulting engineersto carry out feasibility studies of access to Dacca and Chittagong.

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Dacca-Chittagong Highway Including the Narayanganj Extension

45. The completion of the Dacca-Chittagong Highway involves (i) thefinal engineering and construction of 128 miles of highway and (ii) thecompletion of the 18-mile Demra-Daudkandi section referred to in paragraph41. With regard to the latter item, the completion of the work alreadyunder way and the provision of ferry terminals and approaches for ferrycrossings across the two rivers which will not be bridged will not be fi-nanced by the Association; however, the project does include the designand construction of one major bridge. The Government of East Pakistanhas agreed to complete the Demra-Daudkandi section and to provide ferrieswhich have already been purchased under a German credit.

46. The proposed highway will provide for the first time an all-weather connection between Dacca, the provincial capital and largest cityof East Pakistan, and Chittagong, the largest port in the Province. Anextension of the highway to the nearby river port and industrial centerof Narayanganj on the outskirts of Dacca will improve access to the port.

47. The alignment of the proposed highway from Dacca to Chittagong,as recommended by Ammann & Whitney will require the construction of a newroad section (13 miles) from Dacca to a point on the west bank of theSitalakhya River near Demra. This section will supplement the existingnarrow and congested road between Dacca and Demra.

48. From Demra, the alignment will incorporate the 18-mile Demra-Daudkandi section (18 miles) referred to above. There are three majorriver crossings in this section - the Sitalakhya (1,660 feet), the Meghna(2,700 feet) and the M4eghna Gumti (6,000 feet). Ammann & Whitney recom-mended the construction of bridges across all three rivers. The firstriver will be bridged; however, because of the high cost of bridging thetwo wider rivers, it would be more prudent to use the small-capacityferries which the Government recently purchased for that purpose. Astraffic develops, additional ferries will become necessary to supplementthe existing units and the Government has agreed to provide them. Thisprobably can best be accomplished by the use of locally built inexpensivebarge type ferries. If, later, traffic continues to grow to such volumesas would clearly justify the construction of one or both of the bridges,this could be done and the ferries used usefully elsewhere in East Pakistan.

49. From Daudkandi to Chittagong (115 miles) the proposed alignmentgenerally follows the existing road with the following exceptions: (i) asix-mile by-pass around the town of Comilla, (ii) a relocation near thetown of Feni to eliminate a 14-mile loop in the existing road, and (iii)the elimination of sharp curves, substandard bridges and culverts andother obstructions to the free flow of traffic at a large number of points.

50. The Narayanganj extension will branch off from the new Dacca-Demra section at a point about midway between the two latter towns. Theextension would be located directly through the center of the area whichfalls within the jurisdiction of the Dacca Improvement Trust. Reconstruc-

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tion of the existing road along the river bank was not considered practi-cal because of the restricted space and the congestion caused by the load-ing and unloading of vehicles and river boats and the carrying out ofother commercial activities such as the drying and processing of cloth,and by heavy pedestrian and bicycle traffic.

51. The original terms of reference for the feasibility study ofthe Dacca-Chittagong road did not make provision for a study of access tothe center of Dacca and connections to the roads from Dacca to the westand north, nor to the Port of Chittagong. Considerable investigation isneeded to determine the most favorable approaches both from the technicalpoint of view and that of acquiring the necessary right-of-way.

Design Standards

52. Ammann & Whitney recommended that the highway be designed tothe standards shown in Table 2. These standards provide for a two-lanehighway, with the exception of a short section outside Dacca, which wouldbe adequate for the anticipated traffic. The highway would be paved toprovide all-weather service. The type of pavement to be used is notspecified as further study and, possibly, field testing is needed to de-termine the best design with regard to availability of materials, struc-tural strength under all climatic conditions, long life and cost.

53. Because of the heavy traffic which now exists on the outskirtsof Dacca and Narayanganj and the expected increases as these cities growand become more industrialized the 3-mile section between Dacca and theintersection of the Narayanganj extension will be built as a four-lanehighway while the 5-mile extension will be designed as a four-lane highwaywith two lanes to be built under the project.

54. Ammann & Whitney have proposed that the shoulders be built to a9-foot width and paved with brick to a width of 8 feet in order to accom-modate the heavy mixed pedestrian, bicycle rickshaw traffic which existsin the vicinity of all the villages and towns along the route. The pro-posed by-passes around Comilla and Feni will avoid the worst of this con-gestion. Consideration will be given to locating the by-passes furtheraway from these two towns and the inclusion of additional by-passes, es-pecially at Chittagong to avoid congested areas. On this basis, it wouldseem reasonable to consider using narrower shoulders and to leave themunpaved. A similar question has been raised regarding the width ofbridges including the sidewalks. Further study of the above issues willbe included as part of the contract for the final de9ign of the highwaywith the provision that agreement between the Association and the Govern-ment be reached before tenders are called for.

55. The Denra-Daudkandi section, construction of which is nearingcompletion, is being built to standards somewhat below those proposedfor the remaining road sections. The pavement will be 20 feet wide ortwo feet narrower than the new pavement. Furthermore, it was designed

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for a lighter axle-load than the 9-ton standard proposed for the newsections. Shoulders are 6.5 feet wide and most of the bridges have aroadway width of 22 feet,

56. The consultants have expressed some concern as to how well thepavement of the Denra-Daudkandi section will stand up to traffic. Thepavement was built on a high embankment which was not compacted during theconstruction although it has undergone a certain amount of consolidationbecause of exposure to two or three rainy seasons. Ammann & Whitney haverecommended that when maintenance costs of the pavement become excessive,the existing pavement be removed and that the embankment and pavement bereconstructed. As the pavement is nearly completed, the only practicalsolution now is to wait and see how it does stand up. The Government ofEast Pakistan has agreed to maintain the section, and,if and when it be-comes necessary,to reconstruct the section, it will be to standards equi-valent to those agreed for the road between Daudkandi and Chittagong.

57. To alleviate the encroachment problem as discussed in paragraph34, provision for lay-by areas every few miles as needed for markets,storage, unloading and loading, etc. have been included in the project.

58. As noted in paragraph 35, the Government has indicated that itwill act to prevent encroachment on road right-of-way and has recognized

the need for effective vehicle regulation and enforcement. Assurancesthat appropriate action will be taken have been obtained. Also, assu-

rances have been obtained that periodic traffic counts will be made overa period of ten years.

Consultantst Services and Laboratory Facilities

59. This item provides for (i) a management consulting firm to ad-vise and assist the R & H for three years on matters pertaining to itsorganization and operation; (ii) a consulting engineering firm to carryout feasibility studies of access to Dacca and Chittagong as discussed in

paragraph 51;(iii) the provision of weigh bridges to be installed on theDacca-Chittagong road; and (iv) the acquisition of equipment and servicesfor strengthening the central road laboratory. The services to be ren-

dered by management consultants includes:

i) A study of the organization and administration of R & Hand assistance in implementing the recommendations ofthat study.

ii) A report on highway maintenance requirements with re-commendations on necessary changes and improvements.

iii) A report on the condition of the central road laboratoryat Dacca including recommendations as to the proposedresearch aection and the desirability of awarding re-search contracts abroad.

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60. Under the first item the consultants will be expected (a) toappraise the adequacy of the R & H organization and to recommend thechanges necessary for the purpose of modernizing, streamlining and sim-plifying its present organizational structure so as to enable it to carryout its expanding responsibilities with increased efficiency and bettercontrol over its operations; (b) to assist in the establishment and opera-tion of a planning section and a modern design office; and (c) to assistin the selection of contractors and to introduce modern field inspectiontechniques on road construction. The consultants will be required to sub-mit a comprehensive report on their findings and following the approvalof the report to assist in the implementation of its recommendations.

61. The second item calls for a thorough study of maintenance require-ments for the growing road system. Particular emphasis will be placed ondetermining to what extent maintenance operations should be mechanized onboth new and existing roads with due consideration to economy and efficien-cy, good workmanship and availability and skill of local labor.

62. The third item concerns the appraisal of existing laboratory fa-cilities at Dacca and the establishment of a road research section. Theconsultants will be expected to examine and comment on the proposed re-search section and the desirability of awarding research contracts abroad.It will also provide for the training of local staff to operate the exist-ing and any new facilities proposed.

63. The implementation of any recommendations made by the consult-ants involving large-scale expenditure, particularly on maintenance, willhave to be left to a later stage, as it is not possible now to anticipatethe order of magnitude of the expenditure these recommendations mightinvolve. Thus no provision has been made in the project for such expen-ditures.

B. Cost Estimate

64. The total cost of the project is US$45.5 million equivalent asshown below: (A detailed estimate is given in Table 3)

US$ Million Equivalent

Local Foreign Equivalent

Road construction 18.90 18.30 37.20Consultants' services and laboratory

facilities 0.90 1.40 2.30Contingencies 3.20 2.80 6.00

23.00 22.50 45.50

- 1h -

65. The estimate for the road construction part includes the costsof construction, consultants' services, right-of-way and local duties andtaxes. It also includes a bridge across the Sitalakha River. The cost ofthe ferries and the ferry terminals which were ordered under suppliers'credits are not included in the estimate nor is the cost of any additionalferries which may be necessary at a later date (see paragraph 48).

66. This estimate, which was prepared by Ammann & Whitney, is basedon a calculation of quantities which because of the uniform cross sectionof the roadway embankment resulting from the flat terrain throughout thelength of the highway should be almost exact. The accuracy of the unitprices, however, is less certain as this would be the first highway inEast Pakistan built to modern specifications. They were checked, however,against those estimated by other consultants in similar studies in EastPakistan and were found to be of the same order of magnitude, or slightlyhigher. Also, substantial savings over the estimate may be obtainedfollowing further study during the design phase by a reduction in thedesign standards as noted in paragraph 54.

67. Because of advanced stage of completion of the Denra-Daudkandisection, the estimate does not include any part of the cost of the workpresently under way. As noted in paragraph 56, there is some doubt asto how well the pavement of this section will stand up to traffic. TheGovernment has agreed to repair or replace the pavement as needed. Ifthe savings noted in the preceding paragraph should materialize, consi-deration could be given to applying them to this or other work.

68. The estimate for the management consultants is based on an esti-mate of the man-months required by De Leuw, Cather and Company, with whomthe Government is now negotiating. On the basis of the above, a contin-gency allocation of 15 percent for the over-all project is consideredreasonable in view of the conservative nature of the estimates.

69. =The foreign exchange component is estimated at US$22.5 millionequivalent, or approximately 55 percent of the total estimated cost of theproject, less the cost of Government duties and taxes and right-of-way.The estimated foreign exchange requirements are based on the need to im-port all equipment and a large proportion of supplies, the use of foreigncontractors on the road construction part and the employment of consultantsfrom overseas. Local costs are based on the use of local unskilled andsemi-skilled labor, some local services and supplies, and some Pakistanipersonnel on the consultantsf staff.

70. Local currency needs will be provided from the budget of theEast Pakistan Government. Assurances have been obtained from the Centraland Provincial Governments that sufficient funds will be provided to carryout the project and that these funds will be made available as required.

C. Administration and Execution

Dacca-Chittagong Highway Including the Narayanganj Extension

71. Construction of the highway will be carried out through unit-price contracts awarded on the basis of international competitive bidding.Because of the size of the project, two or possibly three consultants,one of which could be the same firm which carried out the feasibilitystudies, will be engaged to prepare final plans, specifications and con-tract documents. This part of the work will require about one year tocomplete following agreement on the design standards. These consultantswill also be used to assist in the analysis of bids and to superviseconstruction in an executive capacity.

72. Construction will be let in large contracts. Their sizes willdepend upon the timing of completion of tender documents and further ana-lysis by the consultants of the construction schedule. Anmmann & Whitneyestimate that actual construction will require about four years. Allow-ing for mobilization of both consultants and contractors, and for adver-tising bids and the awarding of contracts, they estimate that design andconstruction will take about five years to execute.

73. An unusually long construction period is required because littleor no work can be done during the four months monsoon season which extendsfrom June to September, and because of the consultantst assumptions, onwhich the cost estimate is based, that the embankment supporting the road-way would be built by hand labor with equipment being used only for compactionand other special purposes. Work output will also be reduced by high tem-peratures and humidity and by the religious holiday during the month ofRamadan.

74. The extent to which equipment is used on construction is usuallyleft up to the contractor to decide. In East Pakistan the Government willprobably favor using labor to the maximum extent possible because of thelarge surplus available. From the contractor's point of view, equipmentwould probably result in speeding up the work although it would be idlefor long periods of time during the monsoons. The consultants will beasked to consider this point before tenders are called for.

Management Consultants and Other Services

75. The R & H is faced with many difficult problems relating to or-ganization, administration, road maintenance and construction. Theweaknesses of the present highway system become increasingly apparent astraffic demands grow. It is necessary, therefore, to start the complextask of building up a competent, well organized modern highway departmentincluding, in particular, an efficient maintenance organization. TheGovernment is aware of this need and is determined that the problems mustbe overcome now that the first modern highway is about to be built in theProvince and there is the possibility of USAID financing a second majorhighway construction project.

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76. The Government agrees that this task of reorganizing and strength-ening the R & H can be best carried out by a specialized team of manage-ment and technical consultants. After discussions between IDA and theR & H about the Terms of Reference for such consultants, the Government ofEast Pakistan invited a number of firms to submit proposals. Five propos-.als have been received to-date, and as noted in paragraph 68 above, nego-tiations are taking place with the U.S. finm of De Leuw, Cather and Company.

77. The consultants will provide their services for a three-yearperiod. They will prepare reports on the organizational, accounting andtechnical procedures and problems within the first year, after which theywill assist the R & H in implementing the recommendations. The team pro-vided will consist of 8-9 specialists in all phases of highway departmentoperations - administration, accounting, design, materials, maintenance,construction and planning. The number of specialists, at the period oftheir employment, has been based in IDA's experience of similar cases.They are regarded as the minimum necessary to carry out the assignment assoon as possible in order that the R & H may satisfactorily carry out itsgrowing responsibilities.

78. The selection of equipment required for the central road researchlaboratory will be based on the recommendations of the management consult-ants, who will also be responsible for its proper installation and for thetraining of local personnel in its use. The weight bridges will be installedat appropriate points to be selected along the project road. The feasibi-lity studies of access into Dacca and to Chittagong port from the terminalpoints of the project road will be carried out by technical consultants whohave still to be selected. The management consultants will assist theR & H selecting the technical consultants.

IV. ECONtOMIC JUSTIFICATION

A. General

79. The Government believes that priority must be given to the im-provement of both the highway and railway routes between Dacca and Chitta-gong. The standards should be such as to permit all-weather and fast trans-port for city-to-city and intermediate traffic, with a sufficient safetymargin to give operational flexibility and an emergency reserve in each sothat should the services of one be interrupted the population could stillbe supplied with food, The purpose of the projects would be to relievethe existing congestion at the port; to make possible the daily supply offoodstuffs to such growing towns as Dacca, Narayanganj, Comilla, Feni andChittagong; and, by the lowering of transport costs and by service improve-ments, the generation of economies that would stimulate agricultural andmanufacturing development.

80. In summary, the Government believes that as population, urbani-zation, agriculture, industry and service trades grow in the Dacca-Chittagong service areas, and as the character of traffic changes, there

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is a need to improve both rail and road transport facilities within theDacca-Chittagong complex. Possible competition resulting from excesscapacity is not envisaged as being an important issue since there willbe sufficient suitable traffic for both rail and road transport to justifythe improvements. This belief is reinforced by the time periods involved -

about 5 years - to construct the highway and to carry out the proposeddouble-tracking of parts of the 196 miles of railway between Dacca andChittagong.

81. Because the proposed road and rail improvements would closelyparallel each other between Chittagong and Comilla, and because watertransport could be a potential alternative at least for terminal to ter-minal traffic, an intensive study has been made by the Bank staff. Thebroad conclusions reached are (a) that transport by river craft posesseveral problems that are not capable of short-run solutions and that formuch of the traffic expected to move,it is not the most suitable medium,(b) the highway construction is justified, and (c) that the proposeddouble-tracking of the railway should be carried out in stages beginningfirst with the 43-mile section out of Chittagong and the 14 miles out ofDacca.

B. The Dacca-Chittagong Road

(i) The Road

82. There is at present a sub-standard, narrow and highly dangerous142 miles road between Chittagong and Daudkandi via Feni and Comilla (seeMap). Between Daudkandi and Narayanganj (Dacca) until a few months ago,there was no reliable ferry connection. The IWT has now put some smallcapacity ferries into operation on the 22-mile water route between the twolatter points which are capable of transporting 80-90 motor vehicles perday.

83. At present it takes a truck around 6 hours to travel the first142-mile section. The ferry journey, inclusive of loading and unloading,but assuming no queue of waiting vehicles, takes a further two hours.From the river port of Narayanganj to the central business district ofDacca may take anouther half-hour. In other words, taking into accountthe loading and unloading of goods, only one journey per day is possibleat an average journey speed of around 20 m.p.h. Surveys made by the con-sultants show that on the first section of the road between Chittagong andFeni trucks and buses average only 15 m.p.h. because of the narrowness ofthe road, the large number of hump-backed bridges which reduce the sightdistance, the numerous small crowded villages through which the road passesand the general impediments to a free flow of traffic caused by pedestrians,bicycle-rickshaws, autorickshaws and animals on the 1012 foot wide pave-ment. The new road will by-pass the most congested villages and towns.

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(ii) Existing Traffic

84. There have been no regular traffic counts on the existing road.The consultants carried out very limited traffic surveys just prior tothe 1963 monsoon season. These confirmed the generally held impressionthat traffic volumes vary considerably from road section to road sectionand that they increase with proximity to main towns and markets. Trafficvolumes also vary with the harvest season and with the need for truckingto supplement rail and water transport in the clearance of imports fromChittagong.

85. It is not possible to say how representative the traffic figuresare. In broad terms, however, it seems that in the immediate vicinity ofsuch large towns as Chittagong, Feni and Comilla daily traffic volumesrange between 200-400 vehicles. These then drop off rapidly to 100 orless vehicles to build up again as the next market or town is reached.This reflects the local service characteristics of much of the truckingand bus services. Terminal to terminal traffic, which is small, has beenhindered by the lack of bridges and ferries between Daudkandi and Daccauntil a few months ago, and by the costs of transhipment.

86. On the short section between Dacca and the industrial city andport of Narayanganj traffic volumes ranged between 1700-2700 average perday according to the section and between 350-380 per day on the moreroundabout route via Demra. These figures are more likely to be represent-ative since they were based on continuous 24-hour counts for 8 successivedays and seasonal traffic is relatively unimportant here.

87. The trucks using the road carried a wide variety of goods suchas rice, meat, fish, poultry, eggs, potatoes, mustard oil, betel leaves,onions, crude sugar, kerosene, textiles, soap and a wide variety oflocally manufactured and imported general consumer goods as well as sand,gravel and bricks for distribution to construction sites. There appearsto be no question of competition with the railway which is already over-burdened and unable to meet the demands made upon it. The commoditiescarried by trucks and their apparent short average hauls made them un-suitable rail traffic. The buses are generally filled to capacity.

88. There is wide scope, in principle, for the development of roadtransport in the Dacca-Chittagong route. Though the route is only 150miles long, it traverses an area inhabited by some 15-20 million people.The area is intensively cultivated almost the entire distance from Chitta-gong to Dacca. There are many large towns at short distances from oneanother, which have to be fed from the near countryside. Dacca at one endof the route, is East Pakistan's capital (present population 600,000).Chittagong, at the other end, is East Pakistan's main port (present popu-.lation 400,000). There are growing industrial complexes at or near the twoterminal cities and at some of the intervening towns.

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(iii) Future Traffic

89. During 1962-63 trucks cleared 720,000 tons, or 30 percent, ofthe 2.3 million tons of cargo (excluding bulk fuels) imported throughChittagong. It is not known what proportions were for local deliverywithin Chittagong or for inland distribution along the existing road.Nor is the volume of export traffic carried along the highway known. Onthe assumption that the average truck carried 5 tons and worked 300 daysin the year the number of truck departures from the port daily would havebeen 480. If only 10 percent of these moved up-country from Chittagongthis would give an up and down daily truck traffic of about 100 vehiclesover long sections of the road. At an 8 percent annual increase, or mid-way in the range of traffic growth which the Bank has observed in manycountries during the early stages of motorization, the vehicles would morethan double over the next ten years. This should allow adequately for theexpected rates of increase in imports and industrial development in Chitta-gong. In addition, there will be trucks carrying local produce and busescarrying people into Dacca and Chittagong, both of which are expected topass the 1 million population mark in the 1970ts, as well as into Comillaand Feni which may have populations of around 250,000 and 50,000 respect-ively by 1971. The utilization of the highway network in itself can beexpected to generate traffic on this road. A minimum of 250-300 vehiclesper day on most sections of the road through to Daudkandi could be reason-ably expected soon after its opening. On the basis of the Bank's experienceand generally accepted engineering practices this level of traffic, parti-cularly when composed largely of trucks and buses, is sufficient to justi-fy the proposed design standard of the road, although in other more favor-able environments it would be built more cheaply. If traffic increased atonly 4 percent average per year over the assessed life of the road, figuresof around 1,000 vehicles per day could reasonably be expected in lateryears. The Dacca-Narayanganj section has traffic volumes now in excessof 1,000 vehicles per day that justify a major road improvement.

90. Ammann & Whitney forecast that the urban population of the Chitta-gong-Dacca complex may be expected to reach 4 million people by 1970 and10 million by 1980. Their 1970 estimate exceeds that of the Harvard Groupwho are advising the Government. Nevertheless, if the highway consultants,forecast turned out to be a gross over-estimate and the size of the urbanmarkets in the service area of the road to be supplied with milt, eggs,fruits and local vegetables was only 5 million people, much greater volumesof truck transport would be required than at present. Urban populationsgenerally generate more passenger journeys than rural populations. It canbe expected, therefore, that as the towns in the service area of the roadincrease in size, and as living standards rise, many more bus and automo-bile journeys will be made. On any set of reasonable assumptions as tothe growth of truck, bus and automobile traffic there appears that therewill be sufficient suitable traffic to justify the proposed two-lane designstandard. The Government intends to make the foreign exchange availablefor the purchase of a large number of motor vehicles (paragraph 17 above).

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(iv) Benefits

91. At present, truck operators find their costs to be around Rs0.60-1.00 per vehicle mile depending on the vehicle's size and age. Theconsultants estimate that a reduction in present ton-mile costs of around40 percent should be attainable for hauls of around 150 miles on the newroad by new 5-ton trucks. On the basis of the Bank's previous experiencethere is no reason to disagree with this estimate. The new highway willpermit a freer flow of traffic; quicker turnarounds; greater annual mileage;reduced vehicle maintenance and smoother running surfaces.

92. Part of the fall in transport costs can be expected to be passedon the farmers and thus act as a stimulus to development. This can beillustrated by a recent interesting case in the service area. Four tofive years ago the only means of marketing farm produce or of getting goodsto and from Daudkandi, Comilla, Feni and Chittagong was by water or rail.The present passable road was then opened between these cities but left themunconnected with Dacca. Almost immediately vegetables, fruits, milk, eggsand meat were trucked into Chittagong. In 1960 no potatoes were grownaround Comilla. In 1961, 30 acres were planted. In 1962, plantings in-creased to 100 acres and in 1963 to 300 acres. Farmers were able to get20-40 percent more for them in Chittagong than in the local Comilla marketThe Pakistan Academy for Rural Development, which has investigated thiscase, estimates that the per capita income of the farmers concerned doubledto over Rs 650 per year. Their yields of local staples increased 3-4times. No one claims the road was solely responsible for these improve-ments. It was, however, an essential link in the chain of events. With-out easy and cheaper access to larger markets the farmers would have hadless incentive to increase output or improve methods.

93. The significance of this is illustrated by the fact that eventoday Dacca, which is some 50 miles from Comilla, does not provide a marketfor the perishables grown around Comilla, which Chittagong which is over100 miles away provides a ready and growing market. The Academy staff be-lieve that given access to the Dacca market, and with prices slightly abovethose now prevailing in Chittagong, sales could at least double. Althoughthis case is unique in East Pakistan it is illustrative of what can bedone. Similar responses may take longer elsewhere in the service area ofthe road but without the price incentives that lower transport costs offerthey are likely to be long delayed.

94. In addition to reducing road transport costs and stimulatingagricultural production the road will render useful social and adminis-trative benefits to the 20 million or so people served by it. Its con.struction by a large labor force will immediately increase demand forfoodstuffs along the route and thus act as a stimulus to farmers to shiftmore quickly from subsistence to cash crop agriculture. The injection ofcash incomes into the area could also have a stimulating effect on the de-mand for cheap consumer goods produced by local manufacturing firms.

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95. A quantitative assessment of benefits would be arbitrary andconjectural. There is little over-the-road transport at present. In-formation about the traffic volumes and traffic patterns on the presentroad is sketchy. The available date on vehicle operating costs is poor.The present situation is unlikely to have little resemblance to the future.It is problematical how far vehicle operating costs might fall sincethere is no comparable previous experience in East Pakistan. There is un-certainty as to the nature and volumes of future traffic to be routedthrough the ports of Chittagong and Chalna. Trends in population size;its urban-rural distribution; agricultural productivity; industrial outputand per capita incomes are still uncertain variables. Whether the Govern-ment can raise the level of domestic savings or whether sufficient foreignexchange can be earned or obtained through foreign loans or credits to sustainthe growth rate envisaged is not yet determined. Slight variationsin the assumptions relating to the foregoing factors would compound themargin of error in a rate of return calculation.

96. The above view is supported by TCI who state "it must be frank-ly admitted that it would be impossible on the basis of known factors toestablish by generally accepted methods a favorable benefit/cost ratiofor highways in many areas of East Pakistan". However, their report con-cluded that "the estimated costs to complete a basic trunk highway systemare justified by the ultimate benefits to be realized by promoting in-dustry; through the provision of more rapid transport of raw materials andproducts; by permitting movement of labor supply to the shifting pointsof labor demand; by allowing farmers more prompt returns from their products;by the general impetus to business and trade that usually results from im-proved transport; and by facilitating administration of all branches ofGovernment throughout the Province. There is a social need for expandedintercommunication of people and ideas, and the mobility of highway trans-port is an invaluable and essential asset in times of national emergency"(TCI Report, Vol. II, p. 237). Ammann and Whitney attempted a quantita-tive assessment of the Dacca-Chittagong road and concluded that the pre-sent value of future measurable benefits, discounted at 5 percent, wasUS$460 million. This figure is arrived at, however, on the basis ofquestionable assumptions about present and future traffic, population andurbanization trends, as well as GNP growth rates and per capita income andexpenditure that are in excess of those in the Bankls latest economicreport on Pakistants economic development program.

97. Though no definite rate of economic return can be calculated,from the Bank's experience there is every reason to believe that the bulkof the traffic on the new road would be short haul freight and passengertraffic which is economically more suitable for truck and bus transportthan for rail transport; that a sufficient volume of traffic is now clear-ly in sight to justify a road built to the design standards proposed, andthat the project road would provide an adequate return on investment bystimulating local production and trade, facilitating a shift from sub-sistence to cash crop agriculture, and making it possible to move moregoods and passengers at reduced vehicle operating costs. Construction of

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the road would also be an important step to the realization of the Go-vernment s broad objectives of greater agricultural self-sufficiency andthe gradual industrialization of East Pakistan. These aims have beenaccepted, at least implicitly, by the Bank and IDA by their participationin the financing of Pakistants current Five-Year Plan. The available evi-dence about the next and subsequent Five-Year Plans suggest further stepswill be taken towards these ultimate objectives. A modern highwaybetween Dacca-Chittagong is an integral part of the process. It is neededfor the economic haulage of passenger and freight traffic of the kind in-appropriate for rail transport and will provide a useful supplement to thepresent railroad link between the capital and the main port of the Province.

V. CONCLUSIONS AND RECONIENDATIONS

98. The project is technically feasible; however, a number of tech-nical issues remain to be resolved during the preparation of the final de-sign of the construction part.

99. The cost estimate of the project as proposed is conservativelybased and includes a reasonable allowance for contingencies.

100. The East Pakistan Government has agreed to engage consultantssatisfactory to the IDA:

a) To prepare the final plans and contract documents forthe Dacca-Chittagong Highway and to supervise its cons-truction in an executive capacity (paragraph 71).

b) To provide general advisory services to the R & H(paragraphs 75 to 78).

c) To carry out feasibility studies of access to Daccaand the Port of Chittagong (paragraph 51).

101. Assurances have been obtained from both the Central and theProvincial Governments that they will undertake that sufficient funds willbe available to carry out the project and that these funds will be madeavailable as required (paragraph 70),

102. Agreement has been reached with the East Pakistan Government re-garding the Dacca-Chittagong Highway that it will:

a) Complete the work now under way on the Demra-Daudkandisection and provide the ferries now available for two

river crossings (paragraph 45).

b) Expand the ferry service as required (paragraph 48).

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c) Carry out studies to determine the most suitable typeof pavement (paragraph 52).

d) Use adequate design standards including provision forright_of-way sufficiently wide for a four-lane dividedhighway on the Dacca-Narayanganj section (paragraph 58),review the standards for width of shoulders and bridgesand the need to pave the shoulders (paragraph 54), andconsider the need for additional by-passes (paragraph 51).

e) Make adequate provision to insure that the highway in-cluding the Demra-Daudkandi section will be properlymaintained (paragraphs 56 and 67).

f) Legislate and enforce suitable highway regulations(paragraph 58).

g) Prevent encroachment on the right-of-way (paragraph 58).

h) Carry out periodic traffic counts for a period of tenyears ( paragraph 58).

i) Review the need for using equipment for embanlknentconstruction (paragraph 74).

103. The project provides a suitable basis for a development creditby the Association of US$22.5 million equivalent.

May 18, 1964.

Table 1

EAST PAKISTAN

HIGHWAY PROJECT

Motor Vehicle Statistics

A) Number of Motor VehiclesRegistered by Types 1/ - (1958-62)

% Increase1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 (1958-62)

Cars 1/ b,060 4,180 4,460 5,640 6,570 62

Jeeps 1,070 1,370 1,300 1,640 2,160 102

Buses 1,330 1,570 2,050 2,160 2,570 93

Trucks 2,740 2,880 3,500 4,,460 5,930 116

Other 450 1,000 1,390 1,840 1,980 340

Total 9,650 11,000 12,700 15,740 19,210 99

B) Distribution of Motor Vehicles by Registered Districts - 1962

Dacca Chittagong OtherDistrict District Districts Total

Cars / 3,800 1,660 1,110 6,570

Jeeps 990 600 570 2,160

Buses 540 480 1,550 2,570

Trucks 1,840 2,240 1,850 5,930

Others 3/ 810 230 940 1,980

Total 7,980 5,210 6,020 19,210

M% (42%) (27/o'0) (31%) (100%)

1/ The figures are thought to be not entirely reliable. As such should beregarded only as indications of broad trends or distributions.

2/ Includes taxis but excludes auto-rickshaws.

3/ Includes station wagons, ambulances, fuel tankers, delivery vans, etc.

Table 2

EAST PAXISTAN

HIGHWAY PROJECT

Design Standards for Dacca - Chittagong Highway

Design speed (HPH) 60

Hlinimum radius (feet) 1,140

Maximum gradient (percent) 3

Stopping sight distance (feet) 475

Maximum super-elevation (percent) 8

Right-of-way width (feet) 160

Roadway pavement width (feet) 22

Shoulder widthl/ (feet) 9

Shoulder pavement wfidth 1/ (feet) 8

Maximum axle load 9 tons plus 20% for impact

Bridge design loading Indian Road Congress "AA"

Bridge roadway width (feet) 26

Bridge sidewalk width (feet) 6

Slope of embankment 2:1

Roadway pavement: reinforced concrete with brick base or bituminoussurface with crushed brick base.

Shoulder pavement: 2 courses of brick.

1/ To be reviewed by consultants duringthe design chase.

Table 3

EAST PAKISTAN

HIGHWAY PROJECT

List of W4orks and Cost Estimate(In millions of U.S. dollars equivalent)

Local Foreign Total1. Road Construction -

Dacca-Chittagong Road (151.1 miles)Dacca-Demra 0.90 o.80 1.70Sitalakyha Bridge 0.50 1.10 1.60Daudkandi-Chittagong 12.50 13.70 26.20

Narayanganj Spur (h.8 miles) 0.50 o.4o 0.90Lay-by areas 0.50 0.20 0.70

1.90 16.20 31.10

Engineering 1.00 2.10 3.10

Government duties and taxes 3.00 - 3.00

18.90 18.30 37.20

2. Consultants? Services andLaboratory Facilities

Management consultants to R & H o.60 1.00 1.60Central laboratory facilities 0.25 0.25 0.50Weigh bridges - 0.10 0.10Feasibility studies of access to

Dacca and Chittagong o.05 o.o5 0.10

0.90 1.40 2.30

Sub-total 19.80 19.70 39.50

Contingencies (about 15%) 3.20 2.80 6.oo

TOrAL 23.00 22.50 45.50

1/ Includes US$1.5 million equivalent for right-of-way costs,

0 0 C

(I) ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ CC ~ ~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~.....l

EAST PAMSDTAN

DACCA-CHITTAGONG HIGHWAY- PRINCIPAL EXISTING ROADS

PROJECT ROAD

- - - --P i-,- RAILWAYS

0 10 20 30 40 50 (

MILES

tf~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~aym AD N DAX

MAY 1964 IBRD - 1322 R