Intermediate Goods · Downward revisions to our macroeconomic forecasts have resulted in downgrades to our intermediate goods forecasts. We now expect sector production to grow by

1

Highlights World output to rise 3% in 2013

Downward revisions to our macroeconomic forecasts

have resulted in downgrades to our intermediate goods

forecasts. We now expect sector production to grow by

3% this year.

On a sub-sector basis, installation and repair of

machinery and fuel products are expected to grow at

the strongest pace (3½% each). Increased repair

activity as firms postpone the purchase of machinery is

likely to help support near term growth. Relatively

inelastic demand for fuel should help the sector register

firm growth. Moderate activity in the construction sector

will support growth of 1½% and 3% in the non-metallic

minerals and wood sectors, respectively. The expansion

in motor vehicles output will propel rubber & plastic

products growth to 2¾% while paper output will be

dominated by emerging market production.

Macroeconomic risks are largely weighted to the

downside and include weaker growth in key emergers,

a Eurozone breakup and a disorderly unwinding of

quantitative easing. Growth could, however, surprise on

the upside also, arising from stronger growth in the US

and Europe.

Intermediate Goods:

Industry Briefing

2007-2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018-2022

Germany 0.5 -1.7 -1.9 1.5 1.5 1.2 0.9 1.0France -1.3 -5.9 -1.9 1.2 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.3Italy -2.5 -6.4 -5.4 1.5 3.3 2.9 1.9 1.1UK -3.2 -1.9 -0.6 2.8 2.8 2.1 1.7 1.7Spain -2.2 -0.2 -3.5 0.5 2.2 3.7 3.5 2.6

EU15 -0.7 -2.7 -1.8 1.6 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.5

United States 1.5 5.2 3.4 3.9 5.1 4.6 4.2 3.6Japan 0.7 -6.5 3.6 7.2 6.7 4.1 2.7 1.5

Developed countries 0.4 -0.2 1.6 3.8 4.4 3.6 3.1 2.5

Eastern Europe (EU12) 2.7 0.9 1.2 4.1 4.7 4.7 4.3 3.6

Brazil 0.8 0.7 2.6 4.4 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.0Russia 0.5 4.8 6.0 6.8 6.8 6.2 5.7 5.1India 6.4 1.5 2.3 6.4 7.5 8.4 8.4 7.5China 10.3 8.7 6.7 8.0 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.5

BRICs 8.2 7.1 5.9 7.5 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.3

Emerging Markets 6.4 5.2 4.8 6.8 6.2 6.0 5.8 5.4

World 2.9 2.3 3.1 5.2 5.3 4.8 4.4 4.0

Intermediate goodsAnnual percentage changes

China19%

Russia2%

India2%

Brazil2%

Japan10%

US22%

Spain1%

UK2%

Italy2%

France2%

Germany6%

EU-EE2%

Other28%

Intermediate goods: Value added in 2012 (US$ 2005 prices)

Source: Oxford Economics

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

% year

Developed

BRICs

Eastern Europe


Intermediate goods: Output growth

Forecast

World

Note: Output is measured in value-added terms in 2005 prices, unless otherwise stated.

Intermediate Goods

Global Industry Forecasts: Summer 2013 2

Forecast overview Global production to rise 3% in 2013

Global intermediate goods production is forecast to grow

by 3% this year, a downward revision since our last

report given the downgrades to our industrial activity and

construction forecasts. Developed world output is

expected to grow by 1½% this year, a slight upward

revision since our last report owing to strong US and

Japanese projections. Production in emerging markets is

forecast to grow by 4¾% with weaker Chinese output

resulting in a downward revision since our last report.

Next year, world intermediate goods output growth is

expected to accelerate to 5¼% as economic activity

gathers pace, before decelerating from 2016.

Weak construction activity weighs on inputs

World non-metallic minerals output is forecast to grow by

1½% this year while developed world output is forecast to

decline 2¼%. The main drag within the developed world

is Western Europe where demand for all building

materials has been held back by the slump in the

construction sector. Fiscal austerity has held back public

construction activity while weak business and consumer

sentiment has capped private sector building. For the

year as a whole, production in the EU15 is expected to

decline by 6½%. Elsewhere in the developed world, US

non-metallic minerals production is expected to track

construction activity, rising 3% this year and accelerating

next while Japanese output should benefit from the

acceleration in construction activity there. Emerging

markets non-metallic minerals output is forecast to grow

3¾%. Chinese production, which accounts for over half

of emerging-market output, is forecast to decelerate

sharply to just 3% growth this year. The cement industry

has been struggling with weak demand, and profits

declined 29% in Q12013 according to the China Cement

Association.

Over the longer term, demand for building materials will

increasingly be led by emerging markets given their

faster growing construction sectors. This is likely to boost

emerging market domestic production and capacity of

bulky building materials such as cement which tend to be

produced relatively close to the point of consumption.

Meanwhile, world wood production, which is also a key

construction sector input, is forecast to grow by 3% this

year, supported by the pickup in the construction activity.

This has offset the impact of muted growth in the

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

% year

Coke & refined

petroleum products

Rubber & plastics

Non-metallic minerals


World: Output growth by sub-sectors

Forecast

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

% year

US

EU15

Japan


Developed countries: Intermediate goods output growth

Forecast

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

% yearCoke & refined

petroleum productsRubber & plastics



EU15: Intermediate goods output growth

Forecast

Note: The main focus of this Briefing is on the wood, paper, mineral, rubber and plastics, and fuel products industries, together with repair and installation of machinery. But the ‘intermediates’ total also includes basic metals, some chemicals and some electrical equipment – sectors which are analysed in other Industry Briefings.

Intermediate Goods

3

furniture sector, another (albeit less important) wood

consumer. Developed world wood output is forecast to

grow 1¼% this year while emerging market output is

forecast to rise by 5 ¾%.

Machinery installation to decelerate this year

Repair & installation of machinery is forecast to slow to

growth of 3½% this year, at a global level. This broadly

mirrors the trend in engineering growth which is also

expected to ease this year. In the developed world, repair

& installation is forecast to grow by 3¼%. This is,

however, faster than the flat trend in growth in

engineering forecast for this year. In the most recent

downturn, many firms in Europe, which is the weakest of

the developed world markets, have postponed the

purchase of new machinery, using their old equipment for

longer than normal. Thus, while installation activity will

have largely ground to a halt, the repair segment of the

sector is likely to have benefited. In emerging markets,

the repair & installation sector is forecast to grow by 9%

this year. Rapid expansion in manufacturing capacity in

the emergers is likely to spur growth in this sector over

the medium term also.

World output of rubber & plastic products is forecast to

rise 2¾% this year. Growth is likely to be front-loaded,

however, given the likely flat picture for motor vehicles

production for the rest of the year. Production in the

developed world is forecast to grow by 1¼% while

emerging market output is projected to rise 5¼%. Over

the longer term, rising incomes and increasing car density

in emerging markets will drive growth in the motor

vehicles sector which will in turn support rubber

production.

With pulp & paper demand closely tied to economic

trends, world production is expected to register meagre

growth of ¼%. Developed world output is forecast to drop

1¼% while emerging market output is forecast to grow

2½%, as production continues to shift to lower-cost

countries.

Demand for petroleum and coal products is also

influenced by industrial activity more widely, although

given demand for some products such as petroleum are

fairly inelastic, this is the least cyclical of the smaller

intermediate goods sectors covered in this Brief. World

fuel output is forecast to grow by 3¼% this year.

Developed world output is projected to rise 2¼% while

emerging market production will grow 4¼%.

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

% year

Italy

UKGermany


Intermediate goods: Output

Forecast

France

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

% year

Hungary

Poland

Czech Republic



Forecast

Slovakia

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

% year

Russia

Brazil

India


Intermediate goods: Output growth

Forecast

China

.

Intermediate Goods


Forecast Risks

The Chinese government is currently considering

tougher emissions standard for cement factories in a

bid to lower excess capacity and reduce pollution. If

such measures are introduced, less efficient plants

are likely to reduce production of close resulting in

weaker production trends, at least in the short term.

The risks to our motor vehicles output forecast

are weighted to the downside which points to

downside risks to our rubber products forecast

given motor vehicles, specifically tyres, are a key

end-use sector. Car sales have been supported

by incentive schemes and as these are scaled

back, sales could also falter.

Where is intermediate goods production expanding fastest?

Where is intermediate goods production suffering the most?

Last year Next 5 yearsCyprus -12.4 Cyprus -3.9Qatar -9.2 Portugal -0.1

Japan -6.5 Netherlands 0.6Italy -6.4 Hong Kong 0.6France -5.9 Germany 0.6Switzerland -4.8 Italy 0.8Ukraine -4.3 France 0.9

Pakistan -4.0 Sweden 1.2Sweden -3.9 Malta 1.2Estonia -3.8 Spain 1.2

Intermediate goods - Top 10 slowest growing countries(Annual percentage changes)

Last year Next 5 yearsLatvia 14.7 Uruguay 7.4Saudi Arabia 10.1 Vietnam 7.1

Egypt 9.6 China 7.0Bahrain 9.3 Lithuania 6.9Iraq 8.9 India 6.6China 8.7 Ukraine 6.6Indonesia 7.2 Indonesia 6.3

Malaysia 6.4 Russia 6.3Slovakia 6.0 Thailand 6.2Kuwait 5.8 Ecuador 6.2

Intermediate goods - Top 10 fastest growing countries(Annual percentage changes)

.

Intermediate Goods

5

Risk Scenario analysis

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

World: Intermediate goods% y/y

Source : Oxford Economics

Shaky foundations for BRICs

Baseline

Forecast

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017



Eurozone tensions reach breaking point

Baseline

Forecast

Our baseline forecast is for intermediate goods

output to grow by 3¼% this year, accelerating to

growth of 5¼%. The recovery in activity is

expected to be slow in this present cycle, given

the sluggish recovery in global industrial activity.

Given relatively inelastic demand for fuel and

the somewhat counter-cyclical component of the

repair & machinery sector, these sub-sectors

are least responsive of the intermediate goods

sectors to shocks. In contrast, with non-metallic

minerals typically produced close to the point of

consumption with less scope for export,

production is much more sensitive to regional

shocks.

In the first scenario, which assumes slower

growth in the BRICs, weaker investment

spending dampens production in key end-use

sectors such as construction and motor

vehicles. Demand for intermediate goods falls in

tandem while trade links result in lower activity

in other parts of the world also. World

intermediate goods output drops 0.5 percentage

points below baseline but reflecting the speedier

rebalancing away from commodity-intensive

industrial activity, Chinese intermediate goods

output growth shifts 0.9 percentage points away

from baseline.

The Eurozone breakup scenario has the biggest

impact on intermediate goods production given

global economic activity is weakest under this

scenario. Lower investment and consumer

spending hits activity in end-use sectors which

in turn curbs intermediate good production.

Unsurprisingly, activity in the EU15 is the most

adversely affected, with production down by

over six percentage points compared to

baseline in 2016. This compares to a four

percentage point reduction in global output.

In the third scenario of a disorderly unwinding of

quantitative easing, production is initially

stronger than in the base case given stronger

output of end-use output. However, as central

banks tighten policy and end-use activity slows,

intermediate goods production growth also

eases. World output is least affected in this

scenario with only a one percentage point

divergence from base in 2016.

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017



Central banks get more than they bargained for

Baseline

Forecast

Intermediate Goods


In the final scenario, stronger economic growth

spurs demand for raw materials. Production of

intermediate goods rises 0.5 percentage points

above baseline as a result. However, technological

advances may also result in substitution away from

some intermediate goods. Increasing use of

electronic media has dampened paper production

and stronger growth than in the baseline could

hasten this substitution. In addition, greater fuel

efficiency and increasing development and use of

alternative energy may dampen the boost to fuel

production.

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017



The golden age

Baseline

Forecast

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017US

Baseline 3.4 3.9 5.1 4.6 4.2Shaky foundations for BRICs 3.3 3.5 4.6 4.3 4.2Eurozone tensions reach breaking point 3.4 3.9 2.2 -0.9 2.0Central banks get more than they bargained for 3.9 5.7 4.1 0.6 1.7The golden age 3.7 5.2 6.3 5.2 3.9

EU15Baseline -1.8 1.6 2.2 2.0 1.8Shaky foundations for BRICs -1.9 1.2 1.8 1.9 1.9Eurozone tensions reach breaking point -1.8 1.5 -0.6 -4.1 -1.8Central banks get more than they bargained for -1.8 2.6 2.7 1.4 0.8The golden age -1.7 2.7 3.3 2.4 1.5

JapanBaseline 3.6 7.2 6.7 4.1 2.7Shaky foundations for BRICs 3.6 6.8 6.1 3.8 2.9Eurozone tensions reach breaking point 3.6 7.2 3.9 -1.1 -0.1Central banks get more than they bargained for 3.8 8.5 6.7 2.0 0.4The golden age 3.8 8.2 8.0 4.8 2.5

ChinaBaseline 6.7 8.0 6.8 6.8 6.8Shaky foundations for BRICs 6.6 7.1 5.5 5.9 6.3Eurozone tensions reach breaking point 6.7 8.0 5.2 3.0 3.9Central banks get more than they bargained for 6.8 9.1 7.7 5.5 5.3The golden age 6.9 9.0 8.4 7.9 6.8

WorldBaseline 3.1 5.2 5.3 4.8 4.4Shaky foundations for BRICs 3.0 4.6 4.4 4.3 4.3Eurozone tensions reach breaking point 3.1 5.2 2.8 0.2 2.2Central banks get more than they bargained for 3.3 6.4 5.3 3.0 2.8The golden age 3.3 6.3 6.4 5.3 4.1

Intermediate goods% change from a year earlier

Intermediate Goods

7

2007-2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018-2022

Austria 2.0 -1.5 -0.6 2.4 2.2 1.0 1.5 1.1 21.53Belgium -1.7 -3.5 -0.6 2.1 2.5 1.8 1.7 1.3 20.84Denmark -3.9 -0.7 0.1 3.4 3.8 2.4 2.2 2.1 5.78Finland -3.2 -1.8 -0.3 2.4 3.4 3.6 3.7 3.3 16.80France -1.3 -5.9 -1.9 1.2 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.3 58.57Germany 0.5 -1.7 -1.9 1.5 1.5 1.2 0.9 1.0 193.83Greece -3.6 -0.5 -2.8 2.4 2.3 2.6 2.7 2.3 5.88Ireland 9.0 -0.3 11.3 3.5 2.3 3.1 3.5 4.5 21.39Italy -2.5 -6.4 -5.4 1.5 3.3 2.9 1.9 1.1 74.67Luxembourg -7.1 1.4 7.2 4.1 3.7 3.0 2.7 2.0 1.32Netherlands 0.1 3.3 -0.7 -0.1 1.0 1.3 1.4 1.5 28.12Portugal 2.8 -1.5 -3.4 -0.3 0.6 1.4 1.3 1.1 11.83Spain -2.2 -0.2 -3.5 0.5 2.2 3.7 3.5 2.6 49.94Sweden 0.4 -3.9 -3.7 2.2 3.0 2.5 2.1 1.4 24.34UK -3.2 -1.9 -0.6 2.8 2.8 2.1 1.7 1.7 59.52EU15 -0.7 -2.7 -1.8 1.6 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.5 594.34

Australia 0.8 -1.7 1.2 2.4 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.5 27.7Canada -3.1 0.6 1.7 4.0 2.6 2.9 2.8 2.8 48.9Japan 0.7 -6.5 3.6 7.2 6.7 4.1 2.7 1.5 353.30New Zealand -1.7 2.2 1.0 3.4 3.6 3.0 2.8 2.4 4.2Norway -0.4 -3.0 1.6 4.0 3.2 3.0 2.7 2.2 8.74Switzerland 1.4 -4.8 -0.8 2.1 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.8 21.4US 1.5 5.2 3.4 3.9 5.1 4.6 4.2 3.6 780.70

DEVELOPED COUNTRIES 0.4 -0.2 1.6 3.8 4.4 3.6 3.1 2.5 1839.32

Bulgaria -6.3 2.0 4.4 5.9 5.1 4.7 5.3 5.4 1.57Cyprus -3.9 -12.4 -15.0 -5.9 -0.2 0.1 2.6 3.2 0.33Czech Republic 1.8 0.5 0.6 5.1 6.0 5.1 4.7 3.3 13.92Estonia 2.0 -3.8 6.0 5.0 6.3 5.6 5.4 4.8 1.01Hungary -3.0 -0.4 -0.9 2.2 4.6 3.9 5.1 3.4 7.14Latvia 1.1 14.7 -7.9 5.8 5.1 4.8 3.0 2.3 1.30Lithuania -0.3 -1.3 4.3 8.8 8.3 7.2 6.1 4.0 2.10Malta -2.2 4.7 2.1 0.4 0.9 1.3 1.5 1.8 0.31Poland 8.2 1.2 0.3 4.1 3.6 4.2 3.8 3.7 27.35Romania 3.7 -2.2 9.1 2.2 4.1 5.2 5.1 4.3 6.36Slovak Republic 1.6 6.0 1.6 5.3 6.0 5.2 3.4 2.7 6.64Slovenia -7.7 -3.4 -1.9 1.5 3.9 4.2 4.4 2.5 2.17EASTERN EUROPE (EU12) 2.7 0.9 1.2 4.1 4.7 4.7 4.3 3.6 70.19

Brazil 0.8 0.7 2.6 4.4 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.0 67.12Russia 0.5 4.8 6.0 6.8 6.8 6.2 5.7 5.1 55.66India 6.4 1.5 2.3 6.4 7.5 8.4 8.4 7.5 79.76China 10.3 8.7 6.7 8.0 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.5 668.04BRICs 8.2 7.1 5.9 7.5 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.3 870.63

Turkey 3.6 1.5 -1.4 5.9 5.7 4.6 3.7 4.0 56.05Ukraine -3.0 -4.3 -1.4 11.0 9.3 7.7 6.6 5.5 8.57

Hong Kong -2.8 -1.1 0.0 1.0 1.3 0.6 0.2 1.1 1.75Indonesia 2.0 7.2 7.6 6.8 6.0 5.7 5.5 5.4 41.26Korea 8.0 3.8 2.6 7.0 7.5 6.1 5.2 4.2 156.40Malaysia 2.3 6.4 6.6 6.8 6.2 5.4 4.8 4.3 32.48Pakistan -6.8 -4.0 5.3 5.7 6.0 5.9 6.3 5.7 6.49Philippines 4.3 -0.9 8.1 6.4 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.0 12.73Singapore 7.6 1.5 2.5 8.1 3.0 3.2 3.1 3.2 19.77Taiwan 9.1 2.6 5.7 4.7 3.3 3.9 3.8 3.3 107.37Thailand 2.1 2.7 6.5 7.0 6.1 5.8 5.8 5.6 32.05Vietnam 9.7 0.0 3.6 9.0 8.2 7.4 7.1 6.7 5.06

Argentina 6.3 0.5 1.5 5.6 6.5 5.7 4.5 3.3 19.82Chile 1.1 -0.3 -1.4 5.1 4.9 4.2 3.9 3.9 7.96Colombia 2.7 -3.3 3.0 6.8 6.6 5.6 5.3 4.8 10.01Ecuador -1.3 2.7 6.6 8.8 6.6 4.5 4.6 3.7 3.22Mexico -1.2 3.6 2.8 8.0 7.5 5.4 4.9 4.5 44.91Uruguay -1.8 -0.2 17.0 6.0 6.0 4.6 3.8 3.0 1.03Venezuela -0.2 3.4 0.9 2.6 3.8 4.6 4.1 2.8 18.13

Bahrain 4.1 9.3 3.2 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.53Egypt 13.3 9.6 4.5 5.0 6.1 5.9 5.5 5.3 14.70Iraq 10.6 8.9 7.4 6.5 5.8 5.6 5.5 4.6 0.95Israel 3.5 3.8 1.3 6.5 5.0 4.8 4.3 3.9 9.67Kuwait 0.6 5.8 2.8 3.0 2.3 2.6 2.5 2.5 4.34Oman 6.9 4.7 4.7 6.8 6.9 6.5 5.5 5.4 2.81Qatar -0.9 -9.2 5.9 6.7 6.1 5.7 5.6 5.6 3.06Saudi Arabia 10.4 10.1 6.0 4.7 4.8 4.7 4.5 4.3 51.69South Africa 1.1 3.0 3.6 4.7 4.1 4.5 4.9 4.3 20.21United Arab Emirates 0.2 -0.3 4.0 4.9 5.4 5.6 4.6 3.9 10.26EMERGING MARKETS 6.4 5.2 4.8 6.8 6.2 6.0 5.8 5.4 1646.36

WORLD 2.9 2.3 3.1 5.2 5.3 4.8 4.4 4.0 3485.67

Intermediate goods(Annual percentage changes unless specified)

US$bn (2005 prices)2012

Intermediate Goods


2012 2017 2012 2017 2012 2017Austria 33.98 32.97 6.79 6.75 0.62 0.53Belgium 39.22 40.18 5.72 5.92 0.60 0.52Denmark 19.96 19.72 2.59 2.66 0.16 0.15Finland 45.30 46.27 9.32 9.71 0.48 0.43France 29.33 29.59 2.90 2.89 1.68 1.41Germany 31.62 31.47 6.93 6.73 5.56 4.60Greece 35.84 37.28 3.33 3.65 0.17 0.14Ireland 36.64 40.91 11.25 12.76 0.61 0.61Italy 28.81 28.76 4.77 4.89 2.14 1.78Luxembourg 59.26 59.66 3.52 3.76 0.04 0.04Netherlands 33.78 34.10 4.52 4.50 0.81 0.66Portugal 46.20 45.14 6.72 6.67 0.34 0.27Spain 35.28 34.43 4.76 5.00 1.43 1.22Sweden 35.58 34.39 6.57 6.35 0.70 0.59UK 25.93 26.22 2.81 2.75 1.71 1.49

EU15 31.58 31.61 4.87 4.87 17.05 14.44

Australia 37.30 37.02 3.42 3.26 0.79 0.70Canada 36.42 37.29 4.16 4.23 1.40 1.29Japan 38.12 40.59 7.62 8.93 10.14 10.27New Zealand 29.17 28.83 3.58 3.57 0.12 0.11Norway 33.22 33.30 2.96 3.09 0.25 0.23Switzerland 27.10 25.86 5.14 5.06 0.61 0.53US 43.24 43.66 5.71 6.14 22.40 22.06

DEVELOPED COUNTRIES 37.21 38.18 5.52 5.88 52.77 49.63

Bulgaria 35.45 36.71 5.29 5.80 0.04 0.05Cyprus 30.64 30.79 2.02 2.04 0.01 0.01Czech Republic 32.20 33.35 10.74 11.96 0.40 0.39Estonia 44.14 46.05 7.44 8.02 0.03 0.03Hungary 31.72 31.74 7.63 8.17 0.20 0.19Latvia 60.80 58.92 8.43 7.41 0.04 0.03Lithuania 35.50 35.58 7.66 8.38 0.06 0.07Malta 38.26 38.76 5.23 5.17 0.01 0.01Poland 32.80 31.95 2.91 2.86 0.78 0.73Romania 26.53 28.96 6.22 7.10 0.18 0.18Slovak Republic 30.82 32.58 8.87 9.69 0.19 0.19Slovenia 28.33 29.24 6.38 7.25 0.06 0.06EASTERN EUROPE (EU12) 32.06 32.50 4.74 4.91 2.01 1.94

Brazil 45.50 46.49 7.00 7.04 1.93 1.87Russia 43.31 44.17 6.97 7.86 1.60 1.73India 40.95 40.43 6.29 6.24 2.29 2.52China 43.54 42.36 14.77 14.45 19.16 21.54BRICs 43.41 42.54 11.53 11.62 24.98 27.66

Turkey 49.70 46.91 10.09 9.60 1.59 1.52Ukraine 51.51 48.71 9.59 11.24 0.24 0.27

Hong Kong 38.59 38.71 0.76 0.64 0.05 0.04Indonesia 38.67 40.33 9.67 9.95 1.17 1.27Korea 50.82 53.07 16.10 17.75 4.49 4.73Malaysia 65.82 66.23 16.64 17.74 0.92 0.98Pakistan 25.40 26.17 4.82 5.11 0.18 0.20Philippines 41.73 43.75 9.05 9.43 0.36 0.39Singapore 40.25 41.60 11.22 11.38 0.56 0.54Taiwan 70.96 72.37 23.39 24.40 3.05 3.00Thailand 40.89 41.30 14.33 15.25 0.91 0.98Vietnam 26.32 26.92 6.27 6.49 0.14 0.16

Argentina 34.48 35.44 7.90 8.30 0.57 0.57Chile 38.05 38.12 5.33 5.06 0.23 0.21Colombia 41.21 44.11 5.48 5.83 0.28 0.30Ecuador 41.17 44.27 6.08 6.80 0.09 0.10Mexico 25.91 27.16 4.56 4.92 1.29 1.36Uruguay 31.23 36.24 4.59 5.39 0.03 0.03Venezuela 52.45 52.36 9.81 9.74 0.52 0.48

Bahrain 87.66 87.07 11.13 10.40 0.07 0.06Egypt 70.82 71.59 11.85 12.41 0.42 0.43Iraq 82.65 82.09 1.22 1.26 0.03 0.03Israel 43.11 43.69 6.22 6.37 0.27 0.27Kuwait 73.48 73.35 4.35 4.21 0.12 0.11Oman 61.62 63.48 5.96 6.47 0.08 0.09Qatar 31.24 30.69 2.01 1.98 0.09 0.09Saudi Arabia 88.68 88.66 11.16 11.47 1.47 1.49South Africa 42.90 44.03 7.39 7.53 0.57 0.57United Arab Emirates 46.42 47.12 4.37 4.60 0.29 0.30

EMERGING MARKETS 44.57 44.39 10.16 10.49 47.23 50.37

WORLD 40.36 41.08 7.04 7.55 100.00 100.00

Intermediate goods' shares% of Manufacturing % of GDP % of World Output

Intermediate Goods

9

2012 2017 2012 2017 2012 2017Austria 2.74 2.47 0.55 0.51 0.44 0.37Belgium 3.77 3.73 0.55 0.55 0.51 0.44Denmark 0.22 0.23 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02Finland 2.63 2.72 0.54 0.57 0.24 0.24France 0.99 0.97 0.10 0.09 0.50 0.43Germany 0.91 0.85 0.20 0.18 1.40 1.15Greece 13.16 13.02 1.22 1.28 0.54 0.46Ireland 0.09 0.10 0.03 0.03 0.01 0.01Italy 2.00 1.80 0.33 0.31 1.31 1.04Luxembourg 18.88 18.66 1.12 1.18 0.11 0.11Netherlands 4.50 4.73 0.60 0.62 0.95 0.85Portugal 5.64 5.73 0.82 0.85 0.36 0.32Spain 8.04 7.76 1.08 1.13 2.87 2.55Sweden 0.90 0.91 0.17 0.17 0.16 0.15UK 0.65 0.66 0.07 0.07 0.38 0.35EU15 2.06 2.00 0.32 0.31 9.80 8.48





Turkey 20.99 16.67 4.26 3.41 5.94 5.03Ukraine 3.61 2.79 0.67 0.64 0.15 0.14





WORLD 4.59 4.43 0.80 0.81 100.00 100.00

Coke & refined petroleum product shares% of Manufacturing % of GDP % of World Output

Intermediate Goods







Turkey 4.72 4.71 0.96 0.96 1.60 1.64Ukraine 1.03 0.96 0.19 0.22 0.05 0.06





WORLD 3.86 3.84 0.67 0.71 100.00 100.00

Rubber and plastics shares% of Manufacturing % of GDP % of World Output

Intermediate Goods

11






Turkey 6.03 6.83 1.22 1.40 2.09 2.43Ukraine 14.91 14.74 2.78 3.40 0.76 0.89





WORLD 3.73 3.73 0.65 0.69 100.00 100.00

Non-metallic minerals shares% of Manufacturing % of GDP % of World Output

Intermediate Goods


Key Macro Drivers Intermediate goods production is essentially driven by

the activities of sectors further downstream, for

example motor vehicles in the case of rubber and

plastic products, construction in the case of non-

metallic mineral and wood products, and engineering-

type activities in the case of machinery installers.

Growth in demand for all of these outputs, and for

paper products, will be depressed in the immediate

future as fiscal and financial difficulties weigh on

global demand in general and activity in sectors with

high capital requirements in particular.

Producers of petroleum and coal products are also

affected by trends in industrial activity more generally,

but demand is if anything less vulnerable to swings in

the economic cycle than in the case of the sectors

above.

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16% year

Intermediate Goods output (LHS)


Emerging markets: Intermediate goods

Forecast

Total fixed investment

(RHS)

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

% year

Intermediate Goods output

(LHS)


Developed countries: Intermediate goods

Forecast

Total fixed investment (RHS)

% year

Intermediate Goods40%

Other manufacturing sectors

60%

Intermediate goods - 2012Share of world manufacturing (2005 US$bn)


-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

% year

Intermediate goods output


Developed countries: Intermediate goods and investment goods

Forecast

Investment goodsoutput

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

% year

Intermediate goods output


Emerging markets: Intermediate goods and investment goods

Forecast

Investment goods output

Intermediate Goods

13

Latest Monthly Trends Activity in the Japanese intermediate goods sector has

benefited from the improvement in activity. The pick-up in

construction activity has boosted production of both non-

metallic minerals and wood. Rubber & plastic goods production

has been supported by the high level of vehicle production.

Growth in the least cyclical of the sectors, fuel, remains muted

while paper output remains in long term decline.

In Western Europe, with a few exceptions, the trend has

generally been one of decline in March, reflecting the weak

state of industrial activity at present. The latest data for the US

also show a lacklustre trend developing with production across

all intermediate goods sectors declining in April.

Looking ahead, prospects in Japan are possibly the most

promising. The pick-up in industrial activity this year should

boost demand for intermediate goods. In contrast, weak end-

use demand in Western Europe will continue to weigh on raw

material demand. Near-term prospects for US output are

somewhere between the two given industrial and construction

activity is expected to grow, albeit constrained by fiscal

tightening.

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Source: Oxford Economics

% year

Intermediate goods: Output growth - Developed

Big 4, Europe

ForecastUS

Japan

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30


% year

Big 4, Europe

US

Forecast

Japan

Rubber & plastics: Output growth

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20


% year

Japan

US

Forecast

Big 4, Europe

Paper, printing & publishing: Output growth

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20


% yearBig 4,

Europe

US

ForecastJapan

Fuel: Output growth

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30


% year

Big 4, Europe

US

Forecast

Japan

Non-metallic minerals: Output growth

Intermediate Goods


-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25


% year

Japan

US

ForecastBig 4, Europe

Wood & wood products: Output growth

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

May-08 May-09 May-10 May-11 May-12

2005=100

Paper

Total

Source: Haver Analytics

New orders: German intermediate goods

70

80

90

100

110

120

130


2005=100

Paper


New orders: Italian intermediate goods

Total

3 month moving average

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90


Intermediate goods: US Orders

Petroleum products (RHS)

US$ Paper (LHS)

Non-metallic minerals (LHS)

Rubber & plastics (LHS)

US$

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12


% year

US

UK


Rubber and plastics: Prices

Germany

75

85

95

105

115

125


New orders: French intermediate goods


2005=100

Total

Paper

Intermediate Goods

15

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7


% year

US

UK


Non-metallic minerals: Prices

Germany

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80


% year

US

UK


Fuel: Prices

Germany

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6


% year

USUK

Source: Oxford Economics / Haver Analytics

Pulp, paper & printing: Prices

Germany

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12


% year

US

UK

Source: Oxford Economics / Haver Analytics

Wood: Prices

Germany

Index % change Index % change Index % change Index % change Index % change Index % changeMar 107.9 1.7 97.6 9.0 105.0 -2.4 86.2 -6.8 83.2 -6.1 84.5 -2.8Apr 108.0 3.0 97.9 7.6 103.8 -3.8 85.5 -7.1 81.3 -9.0 83.7 -5.1May 107.5 2.5 95.1 0.9 104.6 -3.2 84.3 -9.0 82.6 -4.0 85.6 -1.5Jun 107.3 2.2 95.9 -0.1 103.8 -2.9 84.0 -7.3 81.0 -6.3 80.8 -6.7Jul 107.2 1.5 95.4 0.7 104.7 -3.2 84.9 -6.0 81.8 -5.5 81.9 -6.5Aug 106.8 0.9 93.6 -1.6 103.5 -1.8 86.6 -3.5 86.5 -3.4 80.9 -7.2Sep 106.8 0.1 91.4 -2.3 103.4 -0.2 84.4 -4.8 81.8 -3.3 80.3 -8.1Oct 107.7 0.9 91.5 -3.0 103.3 -1.2 82.9 -5.8 79.4 -6.5 78.4 -9.3Nov 108.7 1.6 90.8 -3.4 102.1 -1.6 82.8 -7.7 78.2 -8.6 79.5 -6.6Dec 109.5 1.5 92.9 -0.8 103.4 1.2 83.5 -4.9 78.4 -9.5 81.8 -2.7

2013Jan 109.8 1.3 92.8 -1.8 102.4 -1.3 82.5 -6.0 77.8 -7.6 78.3 -6.2Feb 110.4 1.5 93.7 -0.9 102.0 -0.5 84.0 1.4 78.2 -3.9 79.2 -4.6Mar 109.7 1.6 97.4 -0.3 102.7 -2.2 82.7 -4.0 76.7 -7.8 79.7 -5.8

Industry Output - Intermediate GoodsValue Added Index (2005=100) and year-on-year % changes, seasonally adjusted

USA Japan Germany France Italy UK

Intermediate Goods


Forecast in Detail – Europe, Middle East & Africa

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

% year

Russia

Turkey

Romania



Forecast

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

% year

Hungary

Poland

Czech Republic



Forecast

Slovakia

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

% year

Spain

Sweden

Belgium



Forecast

Netherlands

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017


petroleum products

Rubber & plastics




Forecast

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

% year

Italy

UKGermany



Forecast

France

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

% year



Forecast

Intermediate Goods

17

NACE rev 2industry code: 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 93-97 98-02 03-07 08-12 13-17 18-22

AUSTRIACoke & refined petroleum 19 168.4 158.1 160.7 163.6 164.9 167.1% change y-o-y -5.5 -6.1 1.6 1.8 0.8 1.3 0.6 -8.7 7.3 7.3 -0.2 1.1

Non-metallic minerals 23 99.1 90.4 92.3 94.4 95.3 96.7% change y-o-y 4.9 -8.7 2.1 2.2 1.0 1.5 0.7 -0.9 2.3 -1.8 -0.5 1.0

Rubber & plastics 22 122.0 144.7 148.8 152.9 154.3 156.5% change y-o-y -1.1 18.6 2.8 2.7 0.9 1.4 2.9 2.8 3.6 0.6 5.1 1.1

TOTAL see above 116.5 115.8 118.6 121.2 122.4 124.2% change y-o-y -1.5 -0.6 2.4 2.2 1.0 1.5 3.4 1.9 4.7 0.4 1.3 1.1

BELGIUMCoke & refined petroleum 19 80.0 81.2 82.0 82.4 82.8 83.1% change y-o-y 7.0 1.6 1.0 0.5 0.4 0.4 1.6 2.6 -6.5 -3.2 0.8 0.4

Non-metallic minerals 23 83.4 77.6 79.6 82.4 84.6 86.3% change y-o-y -6.9 -6.9 2.5 3.6 2.6 2.1 5.2 0.8 1.0 -4.8 0.7 1.9

Rubber & plastics 22 90.0 89.3 92.6 95.8 97.8 99.7% change y-o-y -0.6 -0.8 3.7 3.4 2.1 2.0 4.8 1.7 1.2 -2.9 2.1 1.9

TOTAL see above 86.0 85.5 87.3 89.5 91.1 92.7% change y-o-y -3.5 -0.6 2.1 2.5 1.8 1.7 4.8 2.9 0.4 -2.7 1.5 1.3

DENMARKCoke & refined petroleum 19 124.4 135.3 138.7 142.7 145.7 148.8% change y-o-y 9.6 8.8 2.5 2.8 2.2 2.1 - 0.1 0.2 3.6 3.6 2.1

Non-metallic minerals 23 84.5 85.3 87.6 90.2 91.6 93.1% change y-o-y -2.7 0.9 2.7 3.0 1.6 1.6 - -2.9 6.3 -5.5 1.9 1.4

Rubber & plastics 22 78.7 81.8 84.6 87.9 90.0 92.1% change y-o-y -3.3 3.9 3.4 3.9 2.5 2.3 - 0.9 2.6 -6.0 3.2 2.3

TOTAL see above 87.2 87.3 90.3 93.7 95.9 98.0% change y-o-y -0.7 0.1 3.4 3.8 2.4 2.2 - -0.4 2.8 -4.5 2.4 2.1

FINLANDCoke & refined petroleum 19 85.0 88.2 89.7 91.9 94.5 97.6% change y-o-y -3.0 3.7 1.7 2.5 2.9 3.2 -1.2 6.2 -7.9 -4.9 2.8 3.7

Non-metallic minerals 23 82.8 78.2 77.9 79.9 82.2 84.7% change y-o-y -8.7 -5.6 -0.3 2.6 2.9 3.0 4.0 11.0 6.5 -7.0 0.4 2.5

Rubber & plastics 22 117.7 120.6 122.9 126.1 129.7 133.7% change y-o-y 1.6 2.4 1.9 2.6 2.9 3.1 10.1 9.1 7.3 -0.3 2.6 3.6


FRANCECoke & refined petroleum 19 56.8 57.5 57.5 57.5 57.6 57.8% change y-o-y -14.0 1.3 0.0 -0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 7.0 -3.8 -14.8 0.3 0.2

Non-metallic minerals 23 88.3 83.9 84.5 85.7 86.6 87.6% change y-o-y -13.3 -4.9 0.8 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.4 2.8 2.9 -3.9 -0.2 1.0



GERMANYCoke & refined petroleum 19 87.2 84.8 85.0 84.1 84.0 84.3% change y-o-y 1.4 -2.7 0.2 -1.1 -0.1 0.4 -0.6 0.8 2.7 -2.8 -0.7 0.7

Non-metallic minerals 23 101.7 97.0 97.1 96.4 96.1 96.4% change y-o-y -3.8 -4.6 0.1 -0.8 -0.2 0.2 -1.4 -2.9 0.7 -1.7 -1.1 0.4



Europe, Middle East and Africa: Intermediate goodsNACE 16, 17, 19, 20.1 to 20.3, 20.5 to 20.6, 22 to 24

Detailed outputValue Added Index, 2005=100

Average 5 year % growth

Intermediate Goods



GREECECoke & refined petroleum 19 123.3 119.3 120.2 120.9 122.9 125.7% change y-o-y 27.5 -3.2 0.8 0.6 1.6 2.3 7.0 0.9 -6.2 3.9 0.4 0.9

Non-metallic minerals 23 25.8 27.1 28.6 30.1 31.2 32.5% change y-o-y -28.6 5.1 5.6 5.1 3.8 4.2 3.3 -7.3 0.5 -23.3 4.8 4.2

Rubber & plastics 22 74.4 73.6 74.2 75.6 78.6 81.2% change y-o-y -7.5 -1.1 0.8 1.9 3.9 3.4 -0.9 0.0 1.6 -6.0 1.8 1.9

TOTAL see above 81.8 79.5 81.4 83.2 85.4 87.7% change y-o-y -0.5 -2.8 2.4 2.3 2.6 2.7 1.6 1.4 -1.0 -3.6 1.4 2.3

IRELANDCoke & refined petroleum 19 169.8 192.1 200.4 203.9 209.0 215.2% change y-o-y 7.7 13.1 4.4 1.7 2.5 2.9 6.1 9.1 -23.6 9.9 4.8 4.3



TOTAL see above 159.0 176.9 183.1 187.3 193.2 199.9% change y-o-y -0.3 11.3 3.5 2.3 3.1 3.5 21.3 3.5 0.8 7.0 4.7 4.5

ITALYCoke & refined petroleum 19 87.2 78.8 79.9 80.6 81.2 81.9% change y-o-y -3.3 -9.6 1.3 0.9 0.8 0.8 1.5 0.1 2.4 -2.9 -1.3 0.8



TOTAL see above 86.2 81.6 82.8 85.6 88.1 89.8% change y-o-y -6.4 -5.4 1.5 3.3 2.9 1.9 -1.1 0.7 2.0 -4.1 0.8 1.1

LUXEMBOURGCoke & refined petroleum 19 46.6 51.2 52.7 53.8 54.9 55.9% change y-o-y -1.2 9.9 2.9 2.0 2.0 1.9 2.0 4.6 -9.9 -12.2 3.7 1.4

Non-metallic minerals 23 83.9 84.5 88.3 92.9 96.9 100.3% change y-o-y 3.3 0.7 4.5 5.2 4.3 3.6 - - 10.7 -5.4 3.6 2.9


TOTAL see above 63.6 68.2 70.9 73.5 75.7 77.7% change y-o-y 1.4 7.2 4.1 3.7 3.0 2.7 2.2 5.2 -1.3 -8.5 4.1 2.0

NETHERLANDSCoke & refined petroleum 19 90.5 93.5 93.4 94.2 95.4 96.9% change y-o-y -0.1 3.4 -0.1 0.8 1.3 1.5 5.5 1.5 2.6 -2.9 1.4 1.8


Rubber & plastics 22 116.8 110.8 111.2 112.4 113.9 115.5% change y-o-y -2.3 -5.2 0.4 1.1 1.4 1.4 2.3 3.7 3.5 0.3 -0.2 1.6

TOTAL see above 108.6 107.8 107.7 108.7 110.2 111.7% change y-o-y 3.3 -0.7 -0.1 1.0 1.3 1.4 3.2 3.9 3.4 -0.2 0.6 1.5

PORTUGALCoke & refined petroleum 19 92.2 93.2 93.2 94.2 95.1 95.5% change y-o-y 3.9 1.1 0.0 1.0 1.0 0.3 -1.1 3.7 3.1 -1.2 0.7 0.5


Rubber & plastics 22 129.6 123.9 123.4 124.8 127.2 129.5% change y-o-y 11.0 -4.4 -0.4 1.1 2.0 1.8 7.5 -0.5 1.0 3.8 0.0 1.5

TOTAL see above 114.7 110.8 110.4 111.1 112.7 114.1% change y-o-y -1.5 -3.4 -0.3 0.6 1.4 1.3 4.8 5.5 2.6 1.2 -0.1 1.1

Europe, Middle East and Africa: Intermediate goods Detailed outputNACE 16, 17, 19, 20.1 to 20.3, 20.5 to 20.6, 22 to 24 Value Added Index, 2005=100


Intermediate Goods

19


SPAINCoke & refined petroleum 19 115.7 112.8 113.3 115.6 119.1 121.8% change y-o-y 7.9 -2.5 0.4 2.0 3.0 2.3 -1.5 2.2 2.2 3.6 1.0 1.8




SWEDENCoke & refined petroleum 19 119.4 115.8 121.1 125.2 128.7 132.4% change y-o-y 9.3 -2.9 4.5 3.4 2.8 2.9 3.0 0.6 1.1 6.0 2.1 2.1

Non-metallic minerals 23 123.3 114.2 117.2 120.1 122.7 125.4% change y-o-y -0.5 -7.4 2.7 2.5 2.2 2.2 1.2 6.6 5.6 1.2 0.4 1.5

Rubber & plastics 22 116.7 112.2 115.4 119.8 122.8 125.8% change y-o-y -7.0 -3.8 2.8 3.8 2.5 2.4 8.2 1.3 4.7 0.1 1.5 1.7


UNITED KINGDOMCoke & refined petroleum 19 78.4 79.5 81.9 83.1 84.3 85.3% change y-o-y -9.2 1.3 3.1 1.4 1.5 1.2 3.6 -2.3 -1.8 -3.5 1.7 1.4


Rubber & plastics 22 83.6 80.6 84.1 88.1 91.0 92.6% change y-o-y 1.6 -3.6 4.3 4.8 3.2 1.8 5.5 -1.1 0.2 -4.1 2.1 1.8

TOTAL see above 85.1 84.6 87.0 89.4 91.3 92.8% change y-o-y -1.9 -0.6 2.8 2.8 2.1 1.7 4.1 -0.3 0.8 -3.8 1.7 1.7

EU15Coke & refined petroleum 19 91.8 89.9 90.6 91.5 92.9 94.2% change y-o-y 2.2 -2.1 0.8 1.0 1.5 1.4 1.0 1.9 -0.2 -1.5 0.5 1.3




BULGARIACoke & refined petroleum 19 85.4 88.5 93.1 97.8 102.2 107.7% change y-o-y 2.0 3.7 5.2 5.0 4.5 5.3 - 15.1 2.3 -5.7 4.8 5.8

Non-metallic minerals 23 146.9 170.4 178.9 187.2 194.0 203.0% change y-o-y 2.0 16.0 5.0 4.6 3.6 4.6 - 8.0 16.1 1.5 6.7 5.5

Rubber & plastics 22 68.8 81.3 85.2 89.9 95.1 101.7% change y-o-y 2.0 18.1 4.8 5.6 5.8 7.0 - 3.3 10.2 -9.5 8.1 6.4

TOTAL see above 73.1 76.4 80.9 85.0 89.0 93.8% change y-o-y 2.0 4.4 5.9 5.1 4.7 5.3 - 4.3 4.6 -7.8 5.1 5.4

CYPRUSCoke & refined petroleum 19 110.4 124.6 117.2 116.6 115.9 117.5% change y-o-y 11.5 12.9 -6.0 -0.5 -0.6 1.4 - -3.2 -5.9 3.0 1.3 2.3

-Non-metallic minerals 23 58.2 47.5 44.6 44.4 44.7 46.2 -% change y-o-y -21.0 -18.4 -6.2 -0.4 0.6 3.4 - 0.6 -0.7 -9.8 -4.5 3.9

-Rubber & plastics 22 75.4 70.2 65.7 65.5 65.7 67.6 -% change y-o-y -13.3 -6.9 -6.4 -0.4 0.3 2.9 - 0.2 1.6 -5.5 -2.2 3.3

-TOTAL see above 66.0 56.1 52.8 52.7 52.7 54.1 -% change y-o-y -12.4 -15.0 -5.9 -0.2 0.1 2.6 - 0.1 -4.4 -7.1 -3.9 3.2

Europe, Middle East and Africa: Intermediate goodsNACE 16, 17, 19, 20.1 to 20.3, 20.5 to 20.6, 22 to 24 Value Added Index, 2005=100


Detailed output

Intermediate Goods



CZECH REPUBLICCoke & refined petroleum 19 118.3 119.8 125.9 132.9 139.3 145.5% change y-o-y 1.8 1.2 5.1 5.5 4.9 4.4 820.6 -2.3 11.3 3.3 4.2 3.4

Non-metallic minerals 23 102.1 102.6 107.6 113.1 117.6 122.0% change y-o-y -3.2 0.4 4.9 5.1 3.9 3.8 791.7 7.1 8.4 -3.0 3.6 3.0


TOTAL see above 131.3 132.1 138.9 147.3 154.8 162.2% change y-o-y 0.5 0.6 5.1 6.0 5.1 4.7 779.4 6.2 11.6 1.3 4.3 3.3

ESTONIACoke & refined petroleum 19 125.3 132.5 137.9 142.9 145.8 148.3% change y-o-y 5.3 5.8 4.1 3.6 2.0 1.7 - -20.0 7.2 -2.3 3.4 1.4

Non-metallic minerals 23 77.0 81.4 87.2 93.1 98.0 103.2% change y-o-y -2.0 5.7 7.2 6.7 5.3 5.2 - 2.3 13.7 -9.7 6.0 4.4

Rubber & plastics 22 96.4 91.8 96.4 101.6 106.1 110.9% change y-o-y -7.7 -4.8 5.0 5.4 4.4 4.5 - 25.6 12.5 -6.4 2.8 4.2

TOTAL see above 119.4 126.7 133.0 141.4 149.3 157.3% change y-o-y -3.8 6.0 5.0 6.3 5.6 5.4 - 9.1 10.5 -0.3 5.7 4.8

HUNGARYCoke & refined petroleum 19 71.3 71.6 72.4 74.0 75.2 77.6% change y-o-y -9.5 0.3 1.1 2.3 1.5 3.3 6.0 -1.9 3.4 -6.0 1.7 1.8


Rubber & plastics 22 128.4 129.7 132.3 137.2 141.8 148.9% change y-o-y 4.6 1.0 2.0 3.7 3.3 5.0 8.9 8.7 8.4 0.4 3.0 2.7


LATVIACoke & refined petroleum 19 26.2 22.9 24.1 24.6 25.0 25.2% change y-o-y 4.1 -12.6 5.0 2.0 1.7 0.8 - - 60.7 -10.0 -0.8 0.5

Non-metallic minerals 23 74.5 78.3 84.7 89.0 93.4 97.4% change y-o-y 4.7 5.1 8.2 5.1 5.0 4.3 - - 7.8 -5.0 5.5 3.5

Rubber & plastics 22 90.1 87.9 93.2 96.7 100.7 104.2% change y-o-y -3.5 -2.4 6.0 3.8 4.0 3.6 - - 20.7 -7.5 3.0 3.3

TOTAL see above 126.3 116.4 123.2 129.4 135.7 139.7% change y-o-y 14.7 -7.9 5.8 5.1 4.8 3.0 - - 4.5 4.1 2.0 2.3

LITHUANIACoke & refined petroleum 19 46.1 43.8 47.2 50.2 52.6 54.4% change y-o-y -32.4 -5.1 7.9 6.3 4.8 3.4 - 14.4 -1.7 -6.1 3.4 1.5

Non-metallic minerals 23 85.1 94.0 104.5 114.4 123.7 132.4% change y-o-y 1.8 10.5 11.1 9.5 8.1 7.0 - 2.2 22.6 -9.1 9.3 4.5

Rubber & plastics 22 153.3 169.7 184.8 199.8 214.1 227.7% change y-o-y 5.9 10.6 8.9 8.1 7.2 6.3 - 74.9 13.5 12.4 8.2 4.3


MALTACoke & refined petroleum 19 69.9 72.7 74.0 73.4 73.1 73.3% change y-o-y -11.6 4.1 1.7 -0.8 -0.4 0.2 - -20.1 -31.0 -4.2 1.0 1.1

-Non-metallic minerals 23 148.2 165.1 167.4 168.2 169.2 170.0% change y-o-y 10.6 11.4 1.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 - -3.1 -9.3 0.0 2.8 1.1

-Rubber & plastics 22 111.8 112.1 115.1 118.8 121.0 122.8% change y-o-y -11.1 0.3 2.7 3.3 1.8 1.5 - 5.0 2.9 -4.0 1.9 1.8

-TOTAL see above 101.6 103.7 104.2 105.1 106.5 108.1% change y-o-y 4.7 2.1 0.4 0.9 1.3 1.5 - 0.7 2.7 -2.5 1.2 1.8

Average 5 year % growthValue Added Index, 2005=100

Europe, Middle East and Africa: Intermediate goods Detailed outputNACE 16, 17, 19, 20.1 to 20.3, 20.5 to 20.6, 22 to 24

Intermediate Goods

21


POLANDCoke & refined petroleum 19 121.0 120.2 123.6 125.1 126.9 127.9% change y-o-y -2.2 -0.7 2.8 1.2 1.4 0.8 6.2 -0.8 1.9 1.5 1.1 0.9

Non-metallic minerals 23 178.4 172.7 182.9 190.6 199.5 208.1% change y-o-y -5.5 -3.2 5.9 4.2 4.7 4.3 10.9 -1.5 11.9 5.1 3.1 3.9



ROMANIACoke & refined petroleum 19 63.1 53.5 53.7 54.7 56.2 58.3% change y-o-y -7.3 -15.2 0.5 1.7 2.9 3.6 - 7.8 -13.8 -6.6 -1.6 3.0

Non-metallic minerals 23 115.2 121.6 119.8 122.9 128.0 135.0% change y-o-y -7.5 5.5 -1.5 2.5 4.2 5.4 - -8.0 4.9 -3.5 3.2 4.4

Rubber & plastics 22 190.8 204.8 207.6 214.1 224.3 236.3% change y-o-y -3.0 7.4 1.4 3.1 4.7 5.4 - 4.9 7.1 4.7 4.4 3.9

TOTAL see above 129.7 141.5 144.6 150.5 158.3 166.4% change y-o-y -2.2 9.1 2.2 4.1 5.2 5.1 - -2.2 -4.0 3.0 5.1 4.3

SLOVAK REPUBLICCoke & refined petroleum 19 106.0 113.7 118.9 125.4 132.1 136.3% change y-o-y -7.6 7.2 4.6 5.4 5.4 3.2 - - 6.6 0.2 5.2 2.3

Non-metallic minerals 23 86.3 84.5 90.6 97.7 105.3 111.5% change y-o-y 4.9 -2.1 7.2 7.9 7.8 5.9 - - 9.2 -3.7 5.3 3.6

Rubber & plastics 22 133.5 140.0 155.1 171.6 184.1 192.1% change y-o-y 6.1 4.8 10.8 10.7 7.3 4.4 - - 17.5 1.3 7.6 2.6

TOTAL see above 123.4 125.4 132.1 140.0 147.3 152.3% change y-o-y 6.0 1.6 5.3 6.0 5.2 3.4 - - 10.7 2.2 4.3 2.7

SLOVENIACoke & refined petroleum 19 31.0 30.8 31.2 32.4 33.8 35.2% change y-o-y -49.3 -0.6 1.3 3.7 4.4 4.0 - -10.1 -2.8 -47.2 2.5 2.1

Non-metallic minerals 23 93.4 88.3 91.6 97.2 103.8 110.8% change y-o-y -0.6 -5.5 3.8 6.1 6.8 6.7 - 23.5 4.5 -0.6 3.5 3.4

Rubber & plastics 22 115.2 107.0 114.7 124.9 132.8 139.7% change y-o-y -4.2 -7.1 7.2 8.9 6.3 5.2 - 26.3 14.9 3.1 3.9 2.4

TOTAL see above 103.5 101.6 103.1 107.1 111.5 116.4% change y-o-y -3.4 -1.9 1.5 3.9 4.2 4.4 - -3.9 2.5 -10.2 2.4 2.5

EASTERN EUROPE (EU12)Coke & refined petroleum 19 83.8 83.6 86.3 88.9 91.4 93.9% change y-o-y -7.5 -0.3 3.2 3.0 2.9 2.7 25.9 -1.3 -0.7 -7.1 2.3 2.3




NACE 16, 17, 19, 20.1 to 20.3, 20.5 to 20.6, 22 to 24 Value Added Index, 2005=100

Europe, Middle East and Africa: Intermediate goods Detailed output


Intermediate Goods



NORWAYCoke & refined petroleum 19 91.4 94.2 98.2 101.5 104.9 108.0% change y-o-y -7.0 3.1 4.3 3.4 3.3 3.0 17.3 -16.0 11.4 -0.6 3.4 2.4

Non-metallic minerals 23 87.1 90.3 93.1 94.7 96.2 97.6% change y-o-y -2.1 3.7 3.1 1.7 1.6 1.5 4.5 -0.6 3.3 -4.1 2.3 1.2

Rubber & plastics 22 83.7 86.1 88.8 91.1 93.6 96.0% change y-o-y -2.1 2.8 3.1 2.7 2.7 2.6 4.6 -4.4 -0.2 -4.1 2.8 2.0

TOTAL see above 96.4 98.0 101.9 105.2 108.4 111.3% change y-o-y -3.0 1.6 4.0 3.2 3.0 2.7 1.2 0.1 4.0 -1.7 2.9 2.2

RUSSIACoke & refined petroleum 19 103.9 105.9 111.1 116.0 121.4 127.2% change y-o-y -5.3 2.0 4.9 4.5 4.6 4.7 - 4.2 0.4 0.0 4.1 4.6

Non-metallic minerals 23 112.6 115.9 124.7 134.2 142.9 151.9% change y-o-y 20.2 2.9 7.6 7.6 6.5 6.3 - -5.9 5.4 -0.8 6.2 5.9


TOTAL see above 116.4 123.4 131.8 140.7 149.5 158.0% change y-o-y 4.8 6.0 6.8 6.8 6.2 5.7 - 8.5 4.6 0.3 6.3 5.1

SWITZERLANDCoke & refined petroleum 19 119.5 123.1 126.1 126.9 127.5 128.1% change y-o-y -2.7 3.0 2.4 0.6 0.5 0.4 5.4 8.3 5.5 1.3 1.4 0.5

Non-metallic minerals 23 80.6 78.4 79.1 79.7 80.2 80.4% change y-o-y -4.7 -2.7 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.2 -3.3 9.6 3.4 -3.6 -0.1 -0.3

Rubber & plastics 22 94.6 96.6 99.7 100.6 101.3 102.0% change y-o-y -4.7 2.1 3.2 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.7 3.3 1.6 -2.6 1.5 0.7


TURKEYCoke & refined petroleum 19 112.7 99.7 104.6 108.6 111.5 113.5% change y-o-y 1.2 -11.6 4.9 3.8 2.7 1.8 - - 3.1 0.5 0.1 2.3

Non-metallic minerals 23 134.2 149.5 161.6 172.7 183.0 192.8% change y-o-y -0.7 11.4 8.1 6.9 5.9 5.4 - - 10.7 2.9 7.5 5.3

Rubber & plastics 22 154.0 158.7 168.1 177.5 186.3 195.0% change y-o-y -1.0 3.1 5.9 5.6 5.0 4.7 - - 14.7 5.5 4.8 5.2

TOTAL see above 133.5 131.6 139.3 147.2 154.1 159.8% change y-o-y 1.5 -1.4 5.9 5.7 4.6 3.7 - - 7.1 2.6 3.7 4.0

UKRAINECoke & refined petroleum 19 34.9 30.2 33.0 35.2 37.2 39.2% change y-o-y -14.4 -13.6 9.4 6.5 5.8 5.2 - 2.3 -3.4 -17.0 2.3 4.7

Non-metallic minerals 23 202.2 205.0 230.2 252.6 272.0 290.6% change y-o-y -0.3 1.4 12.3 9.7 7.7 6.8 - 26.3 24.8 5.6 7.5 6.1

Rubber & plastics 22 70.1 74.1 81.9 86.8 91.3 95.7% change y-o-y -11.7 5.6 10.6 5.9 5.3 4.8 - -0.9 6.7 -9.9 6.4 4.5

TOTAL see above 86.8 85.6 95.0 103.8 111.9 119.2% change y-o-y -4.3 -1.4 11.0 9.3 7.7 6.6 - 2.8 9.2 -5.4 6.6 5.5

EUROPE Coke & refined petroleum 19 96.0 91.1 93.3 95.3 97.3 99.0% change y-o-y 0.7 -5.2 2.4 2.2 2.1 1.8 4.8 7.9 0.7 -1.6 0.6 1.8






Intermediate Goods

23


BAHRAINCoke & refined petroleum 19 149.7 153.7 156.6 159.8 163.3 166.9% change y-o-y 9.5 2.7 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.2 - - 10.4 4.7 2.2 2.0




IRAQCoke & refined petroleum 19 51.5 53.7 56.3 58.9 62.1 65.1% change y-o-y 3.0 4.4 4.8 4.6 5.3 4.8 - 6.6 -28.5 -9.0 4.8 3.4

Non-metallic minerals 23 55.3 57.0 59.5 62.4 65.1 67.9% change y-o-y 3.7 3.1 4.5 4.7 4.4 4.3 - -24.8 -0.2 -9.6 4.2 3.3


TOTAL see above 194.1 208.4 221.9 234.7 247.9 261.5% change y-o-y 8.9 7.4 6.5 5.8 5.6 5.5 - 2.0 -12.5 10.7 6.1 4.6

ISRAELCoke & refined petroleum 19 48.0 50.6 54.8 57.8 59.8 61.4% change y-o-y -3.0 5.4 8.2 5.6 3.4 2.8 5.0 -4.0 -15.5 -9.2 5.0 2.6

Non-metallic minerals 23 78.5 82.1 86.3 90.2 93.1 95.6% change y-o-y -3.9 4.5 5.2 4.5 3.2 2.7 -1.8 -11.8 2.3 -4.3 4.0 2.6

Rubber & plastics 22 118.8 117.2 125.2 131.1 135.4 139.3% change y-o-y -1.1 -1.3 6.8 4.7 3.3 2.9 10.2 8.2 6.3 1.2 3.2 2.9


KUWAITCoke & refined petroleum 19 121.5 124.9 128.4 131.3 134.7 138.0% change y-o-y 5.9 2.8 2.9 2.2 2.6 2.5 - -0.9 -1.7 9.7 2.6 2.4

Non-metallic minerals 23 62.5 63.4 65.1 66.6 67.7 69.1% change y-o-y 4.2 1.5 2.6 2.3 1.7 2.0 - 3.0 -0.1 -10.6 2.0 2.9

Rubber & plastics 22 50.7 52.9 56.9 59.2 60.8 62.3% change y-o-y 3.2 4.2 7.6 4.0 2.8 2.5 - -10.4 17.6 -13.9 4.2 2.6

TOTAL see above 112.3 115.4 118.8 121.6 124.7 127.8% change y-o-y 5.8 2.8 3.0 2.3 2.6 2.5 - -1.1 -0.2 6.8 2.6 2.5

OMANCoke & refined petroleum 19 110.3 114.1 119.5 125.4 132.3 138.7% change y-o-y 3.0 3.5 4.7 4.9 5.5 4.8 - - -6.4 8.4 4.7 3.5

Non-metallic minerals 23 182.7 186.7 194.9 204.6 214.1 223.3% change y-o-y 5.5 2.2 4.4 5.0 4.6 4.3 - - 7.2 10.5 4.1 4.0

Rubber & plastics 22 158.1 165.8 181.6 193.9 205.0 214.9% change y-o-y 5.2 4.9 9.5 6.8 5.7 4.9 - - -0.1 5.6 6.3 3.7


QATARCoke & refined petroleum 19 88.8 93.8 99.1 104.3 109.7 115.4% change y-o-y -8.1 5.6 5.7 5.2 5.2 5.1 -6.9 8.9 0.8 -1.5 5.4 4.6

Non-metallic minerals 23 166.9 183.4 203.2 219.9 239.8 267.7% change y-o-y -7.2 9.9 10.8 8.2 9.1 11.6 22.0 5.1 25.3 7.9 9.9 11.2


TOTAL see above 87.2 92.3 98.5 104.6 110.5 116.7% change y-o-y -9.2 5.9 6.7 6.1 5.7 5.6 0.2 4.2 3.1 -2.7 6.0 5.6

Average 5 year % growthNACE 16, 17, 19, 20.1 to 20.3, 20.5 to 20.6, 22 to 24 Value Added Index, 2005=100

Europe, Middle East and Africa: Intermediate goods Detailed output

Intermediate Goods



SAUDI ARABIACoke & refined petroleum 19 135.8 140.6 145.3 150.2 156.2 162.4% change y-o-y 4.0 3.5 3.4 3.4 4.0 4.0 1.3 0.2 6.7 5.4 3.6 2.9

Non-metallic minerals 23 123.2 129.1 133.1 137.7 142.0 146.9% change y-o-y -11.0 4.8 3.1 3.5 3.1 3.5 12.7 13.9 -0.9 1.1 3.6 3.4



UAECoke & refined petroleum 19 114.9 119.1 123.9 129.6 135.9 141.9% change y-o-y -1.4 3.6 4.1 4.6 4.9 4.4 - 9.0 2.5 0.9 4.3 3.6

Non-metallic minerals 23 134.8 137.8 143.1 149.7 155.7 161.7% change y-o-y -0.7 2.3 3.8 4.7 4.0 3.9 - 20.3 8.9 2.9 3.7 4.1

Rubber & plastics 22 106.7 112.1 122.0 129.8 136.5 142.5% change y-o-y 4.9 5.0 8.9 6.4 5.1 4.4 - 7.8 19.3 -1.0 6.0 3.8


EGYPTCoke & refined petroleum 19 19.4 20.5 21.1 21.7 22.5 23.3% change y-o-y -32.1 5.5 3.1 2.8 3.7 3.8 -2.9 10.1 -6.2 -25.3 3.8 3.9

Non-metallic minerals 23 19.2 18.9 20.2 21.5 22.7 24.0% change y-o-y -38.4 -1.7 7.0 6.1 5.9 5.4 20.6 -4.2 1.2 -26.2 4.5 5.3

Rubber & plastics 22 10.2 9.0 9.4 9.7 10.1 10.4% change y-o-y -42.1 -11.2 4.4 3.1 3.5 3.6 16.0 -5.7 -16.0 -33.0 0.5 3.7


SOUTH AFRICACoke & refined petroleum 19 129.7 138.0 142.4 146.5 152.3 159.2% change y-o-y 5.7 6.4 3.2 2.9 4.0 4.5 -4.5 17.1 3.8 2.9 4.2 3.6

Non-metallic minerals 23 105.6 110.0 116.1 120.5 123.6 128.1% change y-o-y 0.8 4.1 5.6 3.8 2.6 3.6 0.5 -6.2 6.1 -1.4 3.9 3.3

Rubber & plastics 22 129.7 132.4 137.7 143.6 151.2 159.4% change y-o-y 5.7 2.1 4.0 4.3 5.3 5.4 -0.1 -5.5 3.8 2.9 4.2 4.7


EUROPE, ME & AFRICACoke & refined petroleum 19 99.8 97.8 100.6 103.2 106.1 108.9% change y-o-y 1.1 -2.0 2.8 2.6 2.8 2.6 4.9 7.5 0.9 -0.5 1.8 2.3






Intermediate Goods

25

Forecast in Detail - Americas

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

% year


Americas: Intermediate goods output growth

Forecast

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

% year

Coke & refined petroleum products

Rubber & plastics



Americas: Intermediate goods output growth

Forecast

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

% year

Colombia

Argentina

Chile



Forecast

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

% year

Coke & refined petroleum products

Rubber & plastics



US: Intermediate goods output growth

Forecast

Intermediate goods

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

% year

Canada

Brazil

Mexico



Forecast

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

% year

Uruguay

Venezuela

Ecuador



Forecast

Intermediate Goods



UNITED STATESCoke & refined petroleum 19 102.7 106.0 108.1 112.9 116.6 119.1% change y-o-y 2.4 3.2 2.0 4.4 3.3 2.2 3.4 3.1 3.9 -0.7 3.0 1.4

Non-metallic minerals 23 73.3 75.4 79.3 83.5 88.1 93.1% change y-o-y 2.6 2.9 5.1 5.3 5.5 5.6 5.3 2.4 3.4 -6.4 4.9 4.8



CANADACoke & refined petroleum 19 97.1 102.3 104.3 105.2 106.3 107.4% change y-o-y 0.9 5.3 2.0 0.9 1.1 1.0 2.4 3.5 -1.5 0.0 2.0 1.0

Non-metallic minerals 23 92.9 88.4 92.2 95.7 99.7 103.5% change y-o-y 2.6 -4.9 4.3 3.8 4.2 3.9 4.6 5.0 2.6 -1.3 2.2 3.2

Rubber & plastics 22 79.7 79.0 82.5 84.2 86.1 88.6% change y-o-y 0.9 -0.9 4.5 2.0 2.2 2.9 9.6 6.7 -1.2 -2.7 2.1 3.5

TOTAL see above 83.2 84.6 88.1 90.3 92.9 95.6% change y-o-y 0.6 1.7 4.0 2.6 2.9 2.8 4.5 4.1 0.3 -2.5 2.8 2.8

ARGENTINACoke & refined petroleum 19 31.7 31.3 33.4 35.8 38.0 39.6% change y-o-y -10.6 -1.0 6.6 7.2 6.2 4.1 - -36.9 -3.5 -15.3 4.6 2.6

Non-metallic minerals 23 170.5 186.6 197.3 208.0 218.2 227.2% change y-o-y -0.2 9.5 5.7 5.4 4.9 4.1 - -7.7 16.2 6.1 5.9 3.9

Rubber & plastics 22 155.0 150.3 158.8 170.0 178.8 186.7% change y-o-y 1.5 -3.0 5.6 7.1 5.2 4.4 - -3.8 9.4 5.9 3.8 3.2

TOTAL see above 148.8 151.1 159.6 169.9 179.6 187.7% change y-o-y 0.5 1.5 5.6 6.5 5.7 4.5 - -4.2 9.2 4.9 4.7 3.3

BRAZILCoke & refined petroleum 19 106.7 112.0 116.1 120.8 125.7 130.9% change y-o-y 4.5 5.0 3.7 4.0 4.0 4.2 4.3 0.9 1.8 0.6 4.2 4.0

Non-metallic minerals 23 121.9 124.4 130.4 134.7 137.7 141.5% change y-o-y -1.1 2.1 4.9 3.3 2.2 2.8 6.7 -0.6 2.8 2.5 3.0 2.8

Rubber & plastics 22 105.4 110.2 115.8 120.3 125.0 130.0% change y-o-y -2.2 4.5 5.1 3.9 3.9 4.1 6.2 -1.6 2.7 -0.3 4.3 3.8


CHILECoke & refined petroleum 19 89.6 97.7 102.2 107.6 112.4 117.0% change y-o-y -2.4 9.1 4.6 5.2 4.4 4.1 - 1.2 0.5 -1.3 5.5 4.2

Non-metallic minerals 23 189.6 179.3 189.6 198.1 203.2 208.8% change y-o-y 21.7 -5.4 5.8 4.5 2.6 2.7 - -2.4 1.1 11.9 2.0 2.9

Rubber & plastics 22 108.6 105.5 111.9 117.5 122.6 127.5% change y-o-y 4.6 -2.8 6.0 5.1 4.3 4.0 - -1.3 7.2 -0.4 3.3 4.0

TOTAL see above 109.9 108.4 113.9 119.5 124.4 129.3% change y-o-y -0.3 -1.4 5.1 4.9 4.2 3.9 - 0.9 4.3 1.1 3.3 3.9

COLOMBIACoke & refined petroleum 19 104.8 107.8 117.5 127.0 135.5 143.1% change y-o-y -5.3 2.8 9.0 8.1 6.7 5.6 - - 6.0 -0.3 6.4 4.6



TOTAL see above 118.0 121.6 129.8 138.3 146.1 153.8% change y-o-y -3.3 3.0 6.8 6.6 5.6 5.3 - - 7.1 1.0 5.4 4.8

Americas: Intermediate goodsNACE 16, 17, 19, 20.1 to 20.3, 20.5 to 20.6, 22 to 24



Intermediate Goods

27


ECUADORCoke & refined petroleum 19 125.0 134.6 149.5 162.1 171.7 180.2% change y-o-y -10.9 7.7 11.1 8.4 5.9 5.0 - - -2.5 5.2 7.6 3.6

-Non-metallic minerals 23 143.6 149.8 162.4 174.2 184.2 194.7% change y-o-y 8.7 4.4 8.4 7.3 5.7 5.7 - 26.8 -4.0 7.9 6.3 4.7

Rubber & plastics 22 33.7 36.9 40.5 43.0 44.7 46.6% change y-o-y 11.6 9.6 9.8 6.1 4.0 4.3 - -4.7 3.0 -21.3 6.7 3.7

TOTAL see above 98.7 105.3 114.5 122.1 127.6 133.4% change y-o-y 2.7 6.6 8.8 6.6 4.5 4.6 - 19.0 2.0 -1.7 6.2 3.7

MEXICOCoke & refined petroleum 19 92.8 97.3 108.0 118.1 126.4 133.1% change y-o-y 1.9 4.9 10.9 9.4 7.0 5.4 2.9 2.5 2.4 -1.4 7.5 4.3



TOTAL see above 101.4 104.3 112.6 121.0 127.6 133.8% change y-o-y 3.6 2.8 8.0 7.5 5.4 4.9 3.3 0.5 3.5 -0.5 5.7 4.5

URUGUAYCoke & refined petroleum 19 69.9 97.7 104.6 111.7 117.4 121.8% change y-o-y -2.8 39.6 7.1 6.8 5.1 3.8 8.5 -9.9 4.3 -5.5 11.7 2.8

Non-metallic minerals 23 106.7 102.4 106.6 111.2 115.4 119.8% change y-o-y -6.1 -4.1 4.1 4.2 3.8 3.8 -7.5 -13.0 9.2 -0.7 2.3 4.0

Rubber & plastics 22 119.3 133.2 138.6 146.7 152.7 159.0% change y-o-y -1.9 11.7 4.1 5.8 4.1 4.1 -7.3 1.1 10.1 0.2 5.9 3.4

TOTAL see above 87.3 102.1 108.3 114.8 120.1 124.7% change y-o-y -0.2 17.0 6.0 6.0 4.6 3.8 7.2 -9.9 6.4 -2.5 7.4 3.0

VENEZUELACoke & refined petroleum 19 95.6 95.6 95.5 97.7 101.8 105.4% change y-o-y 1.4 0.0 -0.1 2.3 4.3 3.5 - -3.5 2.2 -0.6 2.0 2.1

Non-metallic minerals 23 115.7 109.8 117.5 124.4 131.2 137.2% change y-o-y 1.1 -5.0 7.0 5.8 5.5 4.5 - -3.9 8.5 0.0 3.5 2.7

Rubber & plastics 22 119.8 122.4 128.2 132.3 137.9 143.4% change y-o-y 5.4 2.2 4.7 3.2 4.2 4.1 - -3.5 8.7 0.1 3.7 3.0

TOTAL see above 107.8 108.8 111.6 115.9 121.1 126.1% change y-o-y 3.4 0.9 2.6 3.8 4.6 4.1 - -3.4 5.8 -0.3 3.2 2.8

AMERICASCoke & refined petroleum 19 150.4 155.8 159.9 167.1 173.1 177.8% change y-o-y 2.4 3.5 2.6 4.5 3.6 2.7 5.0 2.6 3.4 -0.5 3.4 2.0





Americas: Intermediate goods Detailed outputNACE 16, 17, 19, 20.1 to 20.3, 20.5 to 20.6, 22 to 24 Value Added Index, 2005=100

Intermediate Goods


Forecast in Detail – Asia Pacific

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

% year

Coke & refined

petroleum products

Rubber & plastics



Asia Pacific: Intermediate goods output growth

Forecast

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

% year


Asia Pacific: Intermediate goods output growth

Forecast

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017


petroleum productsRubber & plastics



Japan: Intermediate goods output growth

Forecast

Intermediate goods

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

% year

India

China



ForecastKorea

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

% year

Vietnam

Singapore



Forecast

Hong Kong

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

% year

Thailand

Malaysia



Forecast

Indonesia

Intermediate Goods

29


AUSTRALIACoke & refined petroleum 19 86.7 88.1 89.9 91.7 93.8 95.8% change y-o-y -1.7 1.5 2.1 2.0 2.2 2.2 - 1.4 5.7 -1.3 2.0 1.9

Non-metallic minerals 23 98.5 100.9 105.0 108.5 112.0 115.2% change y-o-y -5.7 2.4 4.0 3.4 3.2 2.8 - 5.5 4.0 -1.4 3.2 2.2

Rubber & plastics 22 72.2 76.3 77.6 78.9 80.2 81.5% change y-o-y 8.8 5.7 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.5 - 2.3 -5.3 -4.6 2.5 1.3

TOTAL see above 102.9 104.2 106.7 108.9 111.1 113.0% change y-o-y -1.7 1.2 2.4 2.1 2.0 1.8 - 3.3 0.4 0.2 1.9 1.5

JAPANCoke & refined petroleum 19 95.4 95.8 99.9 103.0 104.6 106.4% change y-o-y -3.9 0.4 4.3 3.1 1.6 1.7 1.8 0.3 0.6 -1.1 2.2 1.8

Non-metallic minerals 23 96.2 97.8 100.8 102.7 103.4 104.3% change y-o-y -1.0 1.6 3.1 1.8 0.8 0.9 -0.6 -4.8 1.1 -1.8 1.6 0.9

Rubber & plastics 22 98.4 99.9 108.0 115.4 120.5 125.0% change y-o-y -3.5 1.5 8.1 6.8 4.5 3.8 0.0 -1.8 2.3 -1.5 4.9 1.6

TOTAL see above 102.0 105.7 113.3 120.9 125.8 129.2% change y-o-y -6.5 3.6 7.2 6.7 4.1 2.7 1.0 -0.6 4.7 -2.0 4.8 1.5

NEW ZEALANDCoke & refined petroleum 19 60.7 63.8 66.6 69.0 71.2 73.3% change y-o-y 3.9 5.0 4.4 3.5 3.2 3.0 -14.9 0.9 -24.7 -4.1 3.8 2.2

Non-metallic minerals 23 84.7 86.7 92.6 97.6 102.2 106.6% change y-o-y 3.8 2.3 6.8 5.5 4.7 4.3 -10.9 8.4 -4.2 -4.9 4.7 3.7


TOTAL see above 92.8 93.8 97.0 100.4 103.4 106.2% change y-o-y 2.2 1.0 3.4 3.6 3.0 2.8 0.2 0.7 -3.3 -1.4 2.7 2.4

CHINACoke & refined petroleum 19 140.7 150.4 159.0 168.4 178.0 188.5% change y-o-y 2.8 6.9 5.7 5.9 5.7 5.9 11.9 4.8 7.1 4.3 6.0 5.9

Non-metallic minerals 23 197.5 203.7 222.0 235.2 250.3 266.8% change y-o-y 13.7 3.2 9.0 6.0 6.4 6.6 14.4 6.6 8.6 9.9 6.2 6.4



HONG KONGCoke & refined petroleum 19 86.8 88.2 89.2 89.6 89.9 90.0% change y-o-y -1.1 1.6 1.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 5.1 5.2 -0.2 -2.7 0.7 0.4

Non-metallic minerals 23 86.5 87.2 88.5 90.1 90.1 89.8% change y-o-y -1.1 0.8 1.4 1.8 0.0 -0.3 5.1 5.3 0.1 -2.7 0.7 1.7

Rubber & plastics 22 87.2 84.4 86.2 87.3 86.7 85.9% change y-o-y -1.1 -3.2 2.1 1.2 -0.7 -0.9 5.2 0.8 -1.1 -2.7 -0.3 1.1

TOTAL see above 87.2 87.3 88.2 89.3 89.9 90.0% change y-o-y -1.1 0.0 1.0 1.3 0.6 0.2 5.2 -1.1 -1.4 -2.7 0.6 1.1

INDIACoke & refined petroleum 19 168.0 166.8 177.0 191.2 206.2 222.8% change y-o-y 2.8 -0.7 6.1 8.0 7.9 8.0 8.9 4.6 6.0 8.3 5.8 6.6




INDONESIACoke & refined petroleum 19 76.8 82.2 86.4 90.9 95.0 99.9% change y-o-y 5.2 7.1 5.1 5.2 4.5 5.1 -3.5 12.5 -7.9 -5.8 5.4 5.1

Non-metallic minerals 23 114.5 124.8 130.8 137.7 145.9 154.2% change y-o-y 8.3 9.0 4.8 5.2 6.0 5.6 -0.5 26.1 3.2 1.5 6.1 4.9

Rubber & plastics 22 85.5 90.5 95.4 101.0 107.2 113.4% change y-o-y 6.3 5.9 5.3 5.9 6.1 5.8 -3.6 8.0 -0.8 2.4 5.8 5.7

TOTAL see above 126.7 136.3 145.6 154.3 163.1 172.1% change y-o-y 7.2 7.6 6.8 6.0 5.7 5.5 -0.2 9.4 2.1 1.8 6.3 5.4


Asia Pacific: Intermediate goods

Average 5 year % growthNACE 16, 17, 19, 20.1 to 20.3, 20.5 to 20.6, 22 to 24

Intermediate Goods



KOREACoke & refined petroleum 19 110.2 109.8 116.3 122.6 128.2 132.6% change y-o-y 3.5 -0.3 5.9 5.4 4.5 3.5 14.5 -6.6 1.7 2.0 3.8 2.5

Non-metallic minerals 23 106.6 110.6 116.8 122.4 127.3 131.4% change y-o-y -4.5 3.8 5.6 4.8 3.9 3.2 3.9 3.1 3.4 -0.4 4.3 2.4



MALAYSIACoke & refined petroleum 19 127.0 135.3 144.2 152.8 158.8 165.9% change y-o-y 1.6 6.6 6.6 5.9 4.0 4.4 29.1 4.6 -3.3 -4.6 5.5 3.9

Non-metallic minerals 23 78.2 74.4 79.5 84.5 89.5 94.0% change y-o-y -3.6 -4.8 6.8 6.3 5.9 5.0 10.0 -5.9 0.6 -2.2 3.8 3.8



PAKISTANCoke & refined petroleum 19 85.9 90.9 96.2 102.5 108.3 114.9% change y-o-y 1.4 5.8 5.8 6.7 5.6 6.1 - 32.6 -7.3 -3.6 6.0 5.1

Non-metallic minerals 23 103.8 109.6 114.9 120.6 127.5 135.7% change y-o-y -5.5 5.6 4.8 4.9 5.8 6.4 - -8.7 7.8 -2.0 5.5 6.1

Rubber & plastics 22 96.3 104.6 112.6 121.6 128.8 137.2% change y-o-y -3.7 8.7 7.6 8.0 5.9 6.5 - -5.7 9.7 -3.7 7.3 6.3


PHILIPPINESCoke & refined petroleum 19 70.4 89.7 94.2 98.9 102.9 108.0% change y-o-y -11.2 27.4 5.0 4.9 4.0 5.0 - -9.3 -5.3 -2.0 8.9 4.8



TOTAL see above 129.9 140.5 149.4 157.3 165.6 174.3% change y-o-y -0.9 8.1 6.4 5.3 5.3 5.3 - 0.6 4.3 3.9 6.1 5.0

SINGAPORECoke & refined petroleum 19 45.9 42.3 45.2 45.9 46.7 47.4% change y-o-y -9.6 -8.0 6.9 1.4 1.9 1.4 3.6 -5.5 -14.6 -10.2 0.6 1.9

Non-metallic minerals 23 116.6 117.6 125.3 126.3 128.1 129.6% change y-o-y -4.1 0.8 6.6 0.9 1.4 1.2 5.6 -9.0 4.6 1.8 2.1 1.8



TAIWANCoke & refined petroleum 19 138.7 145.4 155.5 161.5 167.0 172.2% change y-o-y 1.8 4.8 7.0 3.8 3.4 3.1 11.9 5.8 9.4 4.5 4.4 2.4

Non-metallic minerals 23 102.9 108.9 113.3 116.5 120.2 123.8% change y-o-y -4.8 5.9 4.0 2.8 3.2 3.0 5.5 0.8 3.2 0.2 3.8 2.4



THAILANDCoke & refined petroleum 19 115.6 121.1 128.5 135.4 142.1 150.3% change y-o-y 8.5 4.8 6.1 5.4 4.9 5.8 - -13.2 -9.5 2.3 5.4 5.6

Non-metallic minerals 23 120.1 123.2 130.3 137.3 146.3 155.4% change y-o-y 8.6 2.6 5.8 5.4 6.5 6.3 - -1.9 -2.0 4.1 5.3 5.4

Rubber & plastics 22 116.5 123.0 130.7 138.6 147.7 157.3% change y-o-y 2.6 5.6 6.3 6.0 6.6 6.5 - -0.4 6.9 2.7 6.2 6.2


Asia Pacific: Intermediate goods Detailed outputNACE 16, 17, 19, 20.1 to 20.3, 20.5 to 20.6, 22 to 24 Value Added Index, 2005=100


Intermediate Goods

31


VIETNAMCoke & refined petroleum 19 1939.5 2065.6 2309.5 2482.1 2626.4 2794.6% change y-o-y 4.3 6.5 11.8 7.5 5.8 6.4 - 26.2 0.2 97.3 7.6 6.3




ASIA PACIFICCoke & refined petroleum 19 121.2 126.8 134.0 141.7 149.2 157.3% change y-o-y 1.9 4.6 5.7 5.7 5.3 5.5 9.0 3.3 1.3 2.4 5.4 5.2





WORLDCoke & refined petroleum 19 125.9 128.8 133.2 139.0 144.4 149.3% change y-o-y 1.9 2.3 3.4 4.4 3.8 3.4 5.9 4.1 2.2 0.2 3.5 3.0




Detailed outputNACE 16, 17, 19, 20.1 to 20.3, 20.5 to 20.6, 22 to 24 Value Added Index, 2005=100


World: Intermediate goods Detailed outputNACE 16, 17, 19, 20.1 to 20.3, 20.5 to 20.6, 22 to 24


Asia Pacific: Intermediate goods

Value Added Index, 2005=100

Documents

Intermediate Goods · Downward revisions to our macroeconomic forecasts have resulted in downgrades to our intermediate goods forecasts. We now expect sector production to grow by