Inter-Parliamentary Meeting Berlin 071005 WHff final.ppt Authorized Labels for Information: Applied Materials Confidential. Applied Materials Confidential

Inter-Parliamentary Meeting Berlin 071005 WHff final.ppt

Success stories of RES-E development: PV Solar Electricity

7th Inter-Parliamentary MeetingDeutscher BundestagBerlin - 5th October 2007Dr. Winfried Hoffmann

Chief Technology Officer (CTO), Solar Business Group of Applied MaterialsPresident of the European Photovoltaic Industry Association (EPIA) and the German Solar Industry Association(BSW Solar) and member of the Scientific Board of FhG-ISE and ISFH

Applied Materials GmbH & Co. KG • Siemensstr. 100 • 63755 AlzenauPhone: +49 6023 92 6679 • Fax: +49 6023 92 6560email: [email protected] • www.appliedmaterials.com


2

Applied Materials Overview

Revenue (Past 4 Qtrs.) – $9,868 Million

Worldwide Employees – Approx. 14,000

Worldwide Locations – 18 Countries

Vision: We apply nanomanufacturing technology™ to improve the way people live

Power$/W

Area$/m²

“Solar BusinessGroup” within “Energy and EnvironmentalSolutions”

SunFabTM


3

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Ma

rke

t g

row

th i

n M

W

JAP GER/EU USA ROW

Historical Market Development by Regions

ref: European Photovoltaic Industries Association (EPIA) & Navigant Consulting


4

Development of the German PV market

750750

600

3 3 3 3

150

8078

4012101274

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

2400

2600

tota

l in

stal

led

PV

-po

wer

in M

Wp

annually installed PV power in MWp total installed PV power in MWp

1991: Electricity Feed-In ActRight of (1) of grid access(2) feed-in of solar electricity (3) refund payment at fixed prices (approx. 8.5 €ct per kWh)

2000: Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG)Solar electricity feed-in tariff of 51 €ct per kWh

2004: Amendment to EEGFeed-in tariff of 45.7 - 62.4 €ct per kWh

1991 - 1995: 1,000 Roofs

Program

1999 - 2003: 100,000 Roofs Progr.

Low-interest loansfor 300 MWp

ref: Bundesverband Solarwirtschaft, Germany)


5

Renewable Energies are requested

“These energy sources should secure our energy needs in the future”

Solar energy

Wind

Hydro

Geothermal

Bio energy

The vast majority of the population in Germany bets on Renewable Energies for their future energy needs.

ref: forsa, Germany 2005


6

Industry is following the market More than €15 billion were invested

in PV systems in Germany since 2000

About €1 billion will be invested in manufacturing plants in 2007

– About 50 companies produce silicon, wafers, cells, modules and inverters

– Modern and automated production lines

– Improved efficiency, improved products

About €100 million will be invested in Research & Development in 2007

– Strong technological development and increased R&D activities

– R&D is done by industry and institutes

Image: Aleo

Image: Q-Cells

ref: Bundesverband Solarwirtschaft, Germany)


7

European Market Support Programs

2006 (est.)

1

12

63

1

12

750

Feed in Laws: Switzerland (1991); Denmark (1993); Sweden (1997); Norway, Slovenia (1999); Latvia (2001); Austria, Czech Republic, Lithuania (2002); Cyprus, Estonia, Hungary, Slovak Republic (2003); Turkey, Ireland (2005)

other countries

12040 – 50Greece

51,2002036 – 49Italy

115031 – 45Portugal

Cap[MW]

Duration[a]

Tariff[€ct/kWh]

5-2030 - 40

BIPV + 15- 25

France

204002522 – 41Spain

750-2038 – 49 BIPV + 5ct

Germany

2005

Feed-in lawCountry

yearly market [MW]

ref: European Photovoltaic Industries Association (EPIA)


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Customer Needs

on-grid off-grid consumer high efficiency

€/kWh €/hr light W/m² g/W

Source: Fraunhofer ISE

€/m² / aesthetics €/W flexibility W/mm²


9

World PV Application Segmentation

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Mar

ket

Siz

e i

n M

W

Off-Grid & Consumer on-Grid

40 %/yr overall

63%/yr

18%/yr

ref: European Photovoltaic Industries Association (EPIA) & Navigant Consulting


10

Competitiveness between ElectricityGenerating Cost for PV and Utility Prices

0,0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1,0

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

€/kWh

900 h/a: 0,60 €/kWh

1800 h/a: 0,30 €/kWh

ref: RWE Energie AG and SCHOTT Solar GmbH, Germany

market support programs necessary:

Photovoltaics

Retail prices privateand small business

Large power consumingindustries


11

Summer

Winter

Standard20,64

6,35

26,78

21,42

31,92

30

10

20

¥/kWh

hours1260 2418

Tokyo Electric Power Cooperation (Jp) Tariff 2005

winter

summer

$ct/kWh

hours

60

20

0

40

0 6 12 18 24

Range of Electricity Pricesin California

ref: Japan = KEPCO office data ; California = Alison Hyde of BSW

Seasonal Electricity Prices


12

Different World PV Market Projectionsuntil 2010

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

LBBW (PV Market ModelVersion 2.0, LBBW Research,Febr. 2007)

EPIA (Pessimistic Scenario,PV Med Athens, Apr. 2007)

EPIA (Policy driven Estimate,PV Med, Athens, Apr, 2007)

Sarasin (Report Solar Energy,Dec. 2006)

MW

(Status: 2006/2007 )

F F F F


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History

1

10

100

1 10 100 1000 10000

MWp accumulated

$/W

p m

od

ule

pri

ce

20% price decrease by doubling cumulative volume

Experience Curve for PV Solar Modules

Forecast

ref: European Photovoltaic Industries Association (EPIA) and W. Hoffmann personal estimates

0,1

1,0

10,0

1 10 100 1.000 10.000

GW accumulated

$/W

mo

du

le p

rice

experience factor

15%

18%

1.8 GW/yr2005

340 GW/yr2030 F

6 GW/yr2010 F

70 GW/yr2020 F


14

100

1,000

10,000

0.1 1 10 100

Cumulative Units Sold (Millions)M

arke

t P

rice

/un

it (

1996

$)

Analog Handset Price

10-5

10-4

10-3

10-2

10-1

1

10

100

105 107 109 1011 1013 1015 1017 1019

‘00‘95‘90‘85‘80‘75‘70‘65

~28% reduction for doubling of total volume

DR

AM

Cen

ts/b

it

Cumulative Bits

VLSI/DRAM

Cost/Learning Curve Examples

Capit

al C

ost

$/m

2

Output - m2 (000 Omitted)

1

10

1 10 100

Capit

al C

ost

$/m

2

Output - m2 (000 Omitted)

1

10

1 10 100

FPD Cost (PECVD)


15

Future Growth of the Global PV SolarElectricity Market in GWp and bn€ turnover

1

10

100

1.000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

year

PV

Po

wer

inst

alle

d, G

Wp

/a

1

10

100

1.000

10.000

Mar

ket,

bill

ion

€/a

35%

10%

25%

40%

30%

5%

module levelrange depending onexperience factor (15% - 18%)20%

15%

fab-invest level (decrease: ~10% every 5 years)upper bound: c-Si, full production chainlower bound: thin film

ref: W. Hoffmann personal estimates

F FF F F FF


16

Electricity generating cost

[€ct/kWh]

Eurelectric /

VGB Power Tech

Today

2005

Tomorrow

2030

Day after tomorrow

2050

Fossile (coal, gas)

4 - 4.5 6-7 6.5 - 9

Nuclear (PWR, HTR, FBR)

4 – 6 3.5 – 7 3.5 - 6

PV solar electricity

(south/north)20/40 5/10 3/6

= own estimates

ref: EURELECTRIC and W. Hoffmann personal estimates


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Solar is Projected to be Big


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Summary: The Future of PV Solar Electricity (I) Success story for PV solar electricity industry due to market support

programs (40 % annual growth in the last decade) specific

Industry investment for PV solar electricity high-tech production needs

Stable market conditions

Not short also not long term, but until grid parity is reached (+ 5 … 15 years)

Allow differentiated feed-in tariff programs in EK 27 – do not force non-differentiating quota systems / trading of green certificates in short term

No stop and go budget(happening when coming from finance minister, instead feed in tariff budgets allocated to electricity users)

In compliance with population (more than 80% of people like to support financially in particular PV systems, e.g. modest increase to electricity bill in feed in tariffs)

Easy grid access without bureaucratic hurdles (no approval procedures for decentralized PV systems)


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Summary: The Future of PV Solar Electricity (II)

If support programs are done now globally, we will have

Short term (2015 …)– Reach grid parity in liberalized utility markets– Market volume above 30 bn €

Medium term (2030 …)– Reach generation cost equal to clean coal electricity production– Market volume towards 200 bn €– Be the most suited energy delivery together with micro-credit financing to

the billions of people in the developing world

Long term (2050 …)– Together with solar thermal electricity power stations be the lowest cost

electricity producing technology (also less than nuclear)– Contribute aggressively to the global electricity needs (more than30 %)


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END

Documents

Inter-Parliamentary Meeting Berlin 071005 WHff final.ppt Authorized Labels for Information: Applied Materials Confidential. Applied Materials Confidential