Intelligent Vehicles:A New World Coming…..

Presentation to the Casualty Actuarial Society

May 8-9, 2000

Richard BishopRichard Bishop Consulting

www.ivsource.net

IV’s: This Joint is Jumpin’….

• During/After Crash Technology Evolving • Telematics is exploding

– “Information Layer” -- in-vehicle information

• Driver Assistance systems entering market– “Control Layer” -- helps driver drive more safely,

productively, efficiently

• Automated Driving– “electronic chauffeur”

– the ultimate in personalized travel

Crash-Related Technology

• Occupant Sensing– Beyond child-seat vs. no-child-seat– Detection of head/body proximity for optimum

airbag deployment– Non-invasive monitoring via

• electrical fields

• radar

• pressure sensing in seat

Crash-Related Technology

• Black Boxes– Extensive data available now on in-vehicle truck

computers: hard braking time/intensity, speed, GPS location, rapid accelerations, even radar data

– Truck industry discussing a formal black box spec– American Trucking Association taking a stand– Congress may get into the act

• Similar data available in cars– Not a technical issue -- only societal/political– In-vehicle data accessible by subpoena

Crash-Related Technology

• Automatic Collision Notification (ACN)– Crash sensors detect crash

– Location of vehicle known thru Global Positioning Satellite system

– Cellular signal goes to local public safety office (911)

• Successful test operating in Buffalo since 1998– company formed to commercialize

• Heavy truck ACN being tested by Mack Trucks

Telematics

• In-vehicle internet access, e-mail, navigation, passenger entertainment, digital radio, multimedia, concierge services

• Home, office, and now the car: telematics is the “last frontier” of internet access

• Industry is gearing up for plug-n-play operation– Microsoft “Windows CE for Automotive” – Auto industry defining standards– Major players in the game: US Wireless, Intel, AT&T, etc.

Telematics……. Distracted Drivers?

• Safety community sees obvious potential for driver distraction

• National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) – sponsoring joint research examining “driver

workload” issues– sponsoring meetings and internet forum

(www.nhtsa.dot.gov)

• Issues under examination in Europe, Japan

Driver Assistance Systems: Collision Warning

• Trucks first, then cars• Over 50,000 heavy trucks equipped with Eaton-Vorad

radar-based system– covers forward zone and right blind spot– selling 10,000 per year– accident reductions of 50% or greater not unusual for some fleets (self-insured

fleets see direct benefit)

• Lane departure warning entered heavy truck market in 1999

– based on image processing– first on Mercedes trucks (Europe), followed by Freightliner (U.S.)– suitable for automotive aftermarket

Assistware’s Lane Departure Warning System

Driver Assistance Systems: Collision Avoidance

• Collision Avoidance: intervening to control the vehicle to avoid a crash– rear-end collisions, road departure, lane changes, etc.– huge “trustworthiness” issues

– creates a new dimension to liability issues

• NHTSA - GM: $35M cost-shared project

• Major work underway worldwide

• Expect systems to enter market around 2004

• IF we can do it, imagine the benefits!

Driver Assistance Systems: Adaptive Cruise Control

• ACC: Foot-free driving– forward-looking radar “sees” slower vehicles ahead

– system automatically adjusts speed and maintains a selectable following distance

– desired speed is resumed when the way ahead is clear

• Now on the market for around $1500– Trucks: US (2000)– Cars: Japan (1997), Europe (1999), US (2000?)

Driver Assistance Systems: Adaptive Cruise Control

• ACC -- questions abound– Will drivers remain attentive?

– Will driving be less stressful, improving driver performance?

– Will dense traffic flow in a more orderly way?

– System intentionally not marketed as a safety system• deceleration is smooth, not intended to avoid a crash

• NHSTA study found that people liked the system and used it responsibly

Driver Assistance Systems:Impairment Monitoring

• Is Mr./Ms. Driver Fit to Drive???

• Technology exists to monitor:– driving performance:

• lane keeping (SPI), steering wheel movements

– physiological factors:• ocular measures: blink rate, blink velocity, % eye

closure…. you name it

• head position monitoring

Driver Assistance Systems:Impairment Monitoring

• Major government research is focused on trucking– fatigue monitors

• Systems are in product development cycle for cars and trucks

• On the market:– Trucks: Basic systems now, advanced systems 2 years

away

– Cars: higher reliability needed; about 5 years off

Headtrak:Proximity Array Sensing System

Advanced Driver Assistance Systems

• “Co-Pilot” functions will continue to emerge – Stop-n-go ACC for congested traffic (~2003) – Lane keeping on freeways (~2004)– Merge assistance (~2006)

• Low Speed Automation!– Automated throttle, brakes, steering in tedious stop-n-go

traffic– being developed in Europe, Japan– availability as early as 2005 overseas, 2007 in U.S.

Automated Driving: it’s coming!

• Hands-off, feet-off driving• Demonstrated in 1997 by National Automated Highway

System Consortium• Basic system capability exists

– machine intelligence & machine perception now being refined by researchers (California, France, Germany, Japan, Korea)

– must transform into an affordable, trustworthy product

• Bishop prediction: available in 2010• Revolutionary changes in society<>travel

Insurance Implications

• Enhanced Driver-Vehicle Interface (DVI)

• Legal / liability issues

• Opportunities for new products based on driver/vehicle monitoring

Insurance Implications:Enhanced DVI

• Driver-vehicle interface evolving– voice-activated control, hands-free cellular phone,

e-mail “read” to driver

• OK, hands are on the wheel -- but where is the driver’s attention?– Eye-tracking technology tracks attention placement– Driver warnings tuned to attention placement

• OK, attention is on the road -- but where is driver’s brain? Unsolved mystery….

Insurance Implications: Legal / Liability Issues

• Shared control of vehicle operation increases risk to vehicle manufacturers -- tort liability

• … but fewer crashes reduces the existing litigation load

• And, consumers must understand what systems do and don’t do– cross-industry educational campaign?

Insurance Implications:New Product Opportunities?

• What can be monitored that provides an indication of driver behavior?– Frequency of hard accelerations, hard braking, excess

speed, excess lateral acceleration– Driving while fatigued– Driving with insufficient attention on the road

• What should be monitored?• Insurance industry, regulators, and consumers

will decide

Resources / Events

• USDOT Intelligent Vehicle Initiative National Meeting (www.sae.org)

– July 19-20, Washington, D.C.

• Japan’s Demo 2000 (www.ahsra.or.jp)

– December 5-8, Tsukuba City, Japan

• ITS America (www.itsa.org)

• www.IVsource.net -- Continued updates and reporting

Thank you.