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Integrating Enrolment and Budget Planning:
Creating SEM Decision Packages
Canadian SEM SummitVancouver, BCMay 14, 2009
Canadian SEM Summit • Vancouver, BC • May 14, 2009 2
The SEM Plan
Canadian SEM Summit • Vancouver, BC • May 14, 2009 3
Challenges with Traditional SEM Plans
Comprehensive to a fault Lose potential allies in the details Focus on planning rather than doing Too often sit on the shelf
Canadian SEM Summit • Vancouver, BC • May 14, 2009 4
Let’s Change the Paradigm
Focus on what matters most to decision makers Extend the planning horizon Do our homework Hold ourselves accountable
Canadian SEM Summit • Vancouver, BC • May 14, 2009 5
Creating a SEM Decision Package
Physical Capacity
Undergrad/Grad
Residency
Program Capacity
Special Skills
AcademicProfiles
Majors
Ethnicity
InstitutionalMission
Phase 1: Identify specific enrollment goals
Canadian SEM Summit • Vancouver, BC • May 14, 2009 6
Creating a SEM Decision Package
Phase 2: Identify enrollment investments and measureable outcomes– Recruitment
– Retention
– Infrastructure
– Beyond enrollment service units
Canadian SEM Summit • Vancouver, BC • May 14, 2009 7
SEM Decision Package Budget
Initiative Investments
Year 1 2 3 4Retention programs
Retention audit 50,000 Program enhancements 25,000 65,000 95,000 7,000
Admissions Office
Predictive modeling 40,000 OSU Nights 10 5000 10,000 15,000 20,000Hosting HS Counselors 15,000 15,000 10,000 20,000Increase names purchase 5,000 5,000 5,000 OOS travel 10,000 10,000 International travel Additional recruitment materials/postage 10,000 10,000 15,000
Classified staff: OS2 (Recruitment support) 2.0 FTE 40,500 Assistant Director (Coordinate non-resident recruiting) 2.0 FTE 72,500
Admission Counselor (Added travel and programs) 59,400
Technology Infrastructure
Web Services Manager (Enhance EM web services, incl. scholarship site) 1.0 FTE 87,000 Web assistant Web search services (e.g., Hobsons) 20,000
Outsourced systems maintenance (e.g., Document Management) 25,000
Financial Aid & Scholarships Office
Leveraging analysis 45,000 University Scholars Program 10,000 10,000 30,000
Classified staff: Adm Svcs (Develop and maintain Web information) 1.0 FTE 48,000
Classified staff: OS2 (Relieve severe understaffing, enhance service) 1.0 FTE 40,500
Assistant Director (Relieve severe understaffing, enhance service) 1.0 FTE 72,500
Student Orientation and Retention Programs Additional out-of-state START programs 4 15000 15,000 15,000 15,000 Increased program participation 10,000 10,000 10,000New parent programs 10,000 10,000
Classified staff: OS2 (Develop and maintain Web information) 1.0 FTE Program Coordinator
Assistant Director (Coordinate out-of-state START programs, 1.0 FTE 72,500 oversee parent programs)
Marketing
Advertising to support recruitng activities 50,000 50,000 100,000
Market research, required to develop effective advertising 25,000 10,000
Nonrecurring expense New staff set-up 5000 15,000 20,000 5,000Document Management 260,000 340,000
TOTALS Recurring Investments 482,500 481,000 300,000 156,400
Nonrecurring Investments 15,000 20,000 200,000 345,000
FY Total 497,500 501,000 500,000 501,400
CUMULATIVE 497,500 998,500 1,498,500 1,999,900
Canadian SEM Summit • Vancouver, BC • May 14, 2009 8
Creating a SEM Decision Package
Phase 3: Identify Measureable outcomes– Enrollment
– Gross revenue
– Net revenue
Canadian SEM Summit • Vancouver, BC • May 14, 2009 9
10 Year Enrollment Planning Scenarios Model Assumptions SummaryOregon State University All dates reference Fall term calendar years.
DRIVER STEADY STATE GROWTH CAPACITY
State Appropriations RAM funding per resident FTE increases by 3% Per Biennium (begins 2005)
Resident Enrollments <1% increase by 2014 Maintain 7.5% market share 14% increase over 2003, by 2014 % of matriculants in 2014 88% 82% 80%
Nonresident Enrollments Fixed at reduced 2004 level +25/year from 2004 base +43/year from 2003 base % of matriculants in 2014 11% 16% 18%
International Enrollments Fixed at reduced 2004 level +6/year from 2004 base +7 - 8/year from 2003 base % of matriculants in 2014 0.5% 2% 2%
Graduate Enrollments Fixed at reduced 2005 level 4,196 by 2014 4,196 by 2014 % of student body in 2014 15% 20% 18%
First Professional Enrollments % of student body in 2014
3% 2% 2%
2014 Enrollments (compared to 2003) 16,432 (9.8% reduction) 21,126 (16.0% increase) 22,500 (23.5% increase)
Graduate and Professional tuition revenues and remissions are not included in
the accompanying net revenue analyses.
Canadian SEM Summit • Vancouver, BC • May 14, 2009 10
Creating a SEM Decision Package
Phase 4: Track Enrollment, Net Revenue, and Institutional Budget Outcomes
Canadian SEM Summit • Vancouver, BC • May 14, 2009 11
Enrollment OutcomesS c e n a r io 2 - In c re a s e T o ta l S tu d e n t E n ro llm e n ts
A C T U A L P R O J E C T E D
F A L L H E A D C O U N T 2 0 0 3 -0 4 2 0 0 4 -0 5 2 0 0 5 -0 6 2 0 0 6 -0 7 2 0 0 7 -0 8 2 0 0 8 -0 9 2 0 0 9 -1 0 2 0 1 0 -1 1 2 0 1 1 -1 2 2 0 1 2 -1 3 2 0 1 3 -1 4 2 0 1 4 -1 5
N e w M a tr ic u la n tsU G - R e s id e n t 2 , 6 3 6 2 , 2 4 1 2 , 3 4 0 2 , 4 6 4 2 , 5 9 2 2 , 7 9 8 2 , 8 3 1 2 , 8 4 5 2 , 8 3 5 2 , 8 4 9 2 , 9 2 4 2 , 9 8 8
U G - N o n -R e s id e n t 3 7 3 3 1 7 3 4 2 3 6 7 3 9 2 4 1 7 4 4 2 4 6 7 4 9 2 5 1 7 5 4 2 5 6 7
U G - In t e rn a t io n a l 1 7 1 4 2 0 2 6 3 2 3 8 4 4 5 0 5 6 6 2 6 8 7 4
N e w F r e sh m e n 3 , 0 2 6 2 , 5 7 2 2 , 7 0 2 2 , 8 5 7 3 , 0 1 6 3 , 2 5 3 3 , 3 1 7 3 , 3 6 2 3 , 3 8 3 3 , 4 2 8 3 , 5 3 4 3 , 6 2 9
O n e -Y e a r C h a n g e ( 1 5 . 0 % ) 5 . 1 % 5 . 7 % 5 . 6 % 7 . 9 % 2 . 0 % 1 . 4 % 0 . 6 % 1 . 3 % 3 . 1 % 2 . 7 %
C h a n g e fro m B a s e Y e a r ( 1 5 . 0 % ) ( 1 0 . 7 % ) ( 5 . 6 % ) ( . 3 % ) 7 . 5 % 9 . 6 % 1 1 . 1 % 1 1 . 8 % 1 3 . 3 % 1 6 . 8 % 1 9 . 9 %
N e w T ra n s fe rs 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0
C o n t in u in g 1 s t Y r 5 6 0 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 2 9 5 6 0 5 9 2 6 3 9 6 5 3 6 6 3 6 6 8 6 7 8 6 9 9
T o ta l F r e sh m e n 3 , 6 3 6 3 , 2 1 3 3 , 3 4 3 3 , 4 3 6 3 , 6 2 6 3 , 8 9 5 4 , 0 0 6 4 , 0 6 5 4 , 0 9 6 4 , 1 4 6 4 , 2 6 2 4 , 3 7 8
O n e -Y e a r C h a n g e ( 1 1 . 6 % ) 4 . 0 % 2 . 8 % 5 . 5 % 7 . 4 % 2 . 8 % 1 . 5 % 0 . 8 % 1 . 2 % 2 . 8 % 2 . 7 %
C h a n g e fro m B a s e Y e a r ( 1 1 . 6 % ) ( 8 . 1 % ) ( 5 . 5 % ) ( . 3 % ) 7 . 1 % 1 0 . 2 % 1 1 . 8 % 1 2 . 7 % 1 4 . 0 % 1 7 . 2 % 2 0 . 4 %
T o ta l H e a d co u n ts To t a l U G - R e s 1 3 , 2 6 4 1 2 , 9 4 2 1 2 , 3 8 7 1 1 , 6 8 2 1 1 , 5 0 1 1 1 , 7 1 4 1 2 , 1 8 8 1 2 , 6 6 4 1 3 , 0 1 9 1 3 , 1 5 3 1 3 , 2 8 7 1 3 , 6 7 9
To t a l U G - N o n -R e s 1 , 8 4 1 1 , 7 6 5 1 , 8 6 3 1 , 9 6 1 2 , 0 6 0 2 , 1 5 8 2 , 2 5 6 2 , 3 5 4 2 , 4 5 2 2 , 5 5 1 2 , 6 4 9 2 , 7 4 7
T o ta l U n d e r g r a d 1 5 , 1 0 5 1 4 , 7 0 7 1 4 , 2 5 0 1 3 , 6 4 3 1 3 , 5 6 1 1 3 , 8 7 2 1 4 , 4 4 4 1 5 , 0 1 8 1 5 , 4 7 1 1 5 , 7 0 4 1 5 , 9 3 6 1 6 , 4 2 6
O n e -Y e a r C h a n g e ( 2 . 6 % ) ( 3 . 1 % ) ( 4 . 3 % ) ( . 6 % ) 2 . 3 % 4 . 1 % 4 . 0 % 3 . 0 % 1 . 5 % 1 . 5 % 3 . 1 %
C h a n g e fro m B a s e Y e a r ( 2 . 6 % ) ( 5 . 7 % ) ( 9 . 7 % ) ( 1 0 . 2 % ) ( 8 . 2 % ) ( 4 . 4 % ) ( . 6 % ) 2 . 4 % 4 . 0 % 5 . 5 % 8 . 7 %
G ra d u a t e s 2 , 7 1 6 2 , 5 8 6 2 , 7 1 1 2 , 8 7 6 3 , 0 4 1 3 , 2 0 6 3 , 3 7 1 3 , 5 3 6 3 , 7 0 1 3 , 8 6 6 4 , 0 3 1 4 , 1 9 6
F irs t P ro fe s s io n a l 3 9 2 4 3 2 4 5 6 4 9 2 5 0 4 5 0 4 5 0 4 5 0 4 5 0 4 5 0 4 5 0 4 5 0 4
T o ta l G r a d & P r o f 3 , 1 0 8 3 , 0 1 8 3 , 1 6 7 3 , 3 6 8 3 , 5 4 5 3 , 7 1 0 3 , 8 7 5 4 , 0 4 0 4 , 2 0 5 4 , 3 7 0 4 , 5 3 5 4 , 7 0 0
O n e -Y e a r C h a n g e ( 2 . 9 % ) 4 . 9 % 6 . 3 % 5 . 3 % 4 . 7 % 4 . 4 % 4 . 3 % 4 . 1 % 3 . 9 % 3 . 8 % 3 . 6 %
C h a n g e fro m B a s e Y e a r ( 2 . 9 % ) 1 . 9 % 8 . 4 % 1 4 . 1 % 1 9 . 4 % 2 4 . 7 % 3 0 . 0 % 3 5 . 3 % 4 0 . 6 % 4 5 . 9 % 5 1 . 2 %
T o ta l S tu d e n t H C 1 8 , 2 1 3 1 7 , 7 2 5 1 7 , 4 1 7 1 7 , 0 1 1 1 7 , 1 0 6 1 7 , 5 8 2 1 8 , 3 1 9 1 9 , 0 5 8 1 9 , 6 7 6 2 0 , 0 7 4 2 0 , 4 7 1 2 1 , 1 2 6
O n e -Y e a r C h a n g e ( 2 . 7 % ) ( 1 . 7 % ) ( 2 . 3 % ) 0 . 6 % 2 . 8 % 4 . 2 % 4 . 0 % 3 . 2 % 2 . 0 % 2 . 0 % 3 . 2 %
C h a n g e fro m B a s e Y e a r ( 2 . 7 % ) ( 4 . 4 % ) ( 6 . 6 % ) ( 6 . 1 % ) ( 3 . 5 % ) 0 . 6 % 4 . 6 % 8 . 0 % 1 0 . 2 % 1 2 . 4 % 1 6 . 0 %
O n e Y e a r C h a n g e i n H e a d C o u n t (4 8 8 ) (3 0 8 ) (4 0 6 ) + 9 4 + 4 7 6 + 7 3 7 + 7 3 9 + 6 1 8 + 3 9 7 + 3 9 7 + 6 5 5
C u m u l a ti v e C h a n g e i n H e a d C o u n t (4 8 8 ) (7 9 6 ) (1 , 2 0 2 ) (1 , 1 0 7 ) (6 3 1 ) + 1 0 6 + 8 4 5 + 1 , 4 6 3 + 1 , 8 6 1 + 2 , 2 5 8 + 2 , 9 1 3
In c lu d e s p ro je c tio n s fo r o n -c a m p u s s tu d e n ts e n ro l l i n g in E c a m p u s ; e xc lu d e s s tu d e n ts e n ro l le d e xc lu s ive ly in E C a m p u s p ro g ra m s .
Canadian SEM Summit • Vancouver, BC • May 14, 2009 12
Financial OutcomesScenario Summary - Net Revenue by Fiscal Year State Support at FY05 Levels + 3% Per Biennium(Thousands) 1 New Faculty Member for Each 20 Students Beyond FY04 Base
STEADY STATE GROWTH CAPACITY1 Year Chg New Base 1 Year Chg New Base 1 Year Chg New Base
2009Revenue increase (decrease) ( 595) ( 139) 2,329 9,528 3,382 18,925State Support increase (decrease) ( 381) ( 1,467) 731 1,143 655 6,411(less) Recruiting/Retention costs - - ( 32) ( 1,632) ( 40) ( 2,040)
Net Revenue ( 976) ( 1,606) 3,028 9,039 3,997 23,296(less) New instructional costs - - - - ( 4,616) ( 10,694)
Net gain (loss) ( 976) ( 1,606) 3,028 9,039 ( 619) 12,602Headcount change (151) (2,609) 476 (632) 545 1,215
2010Revenue increase (decrease) 2,941 2,802 5,511 15,039 5,944 24,869State Support increase (decrease) 1,885 418 2,882 4,025 2,039 8,450(less) Recruiting/Retention costs - - ( 33) ( 1,665) ( 41) ( 2,081)
Net Revenue 4,826 3,220 8,360 17,399 7,942 31,238(less) New instructional costs - - ( 1,012) ( 1,012) ( 4,765) ( 15,459)
Net gain (loss) 4,826 3,220 7,348 16,387 3,177 15,779Headcount change 215 (2,394) 737 105 545 1,760
2011Revenue increase (decrease) 569 3,371 3,015 18,054 3,111 27,980State Support increase (decrease) 559 977 1,683 5,708 675 9,125(less) Recruiting/Retention costs - - ( 33) ( 1,698) ( 42) ( 2,123)
Net Revenue 1,128 4,348 4,665 22,064 3,744 34,982(less) New instructional costs - - ( 7,158) ( 8,170) ( 4,854) ( 20,313)
Net gain (loss) 1,128 4,348 ( 2,493) 13,894 ( 1,110) 14,669Headcount change 158 (2,236) 739 844 545 2,305
2012Revenue increase (decrease) 2,398 5,769 5,289 23,343 6,199 34,179State Support increase (decrease) 1,460 2,437 2,636 8,344 2,141 11,266(less) Recruiting/Retention costs - - ( 34) ( 1,732) ( 42) ( 2,165)
Net Revenue 3,858 8,206 7,891 29,955 8,298 43,280(less) New instructional costs - - ( 5,441) ( 13,611) ( 4,952) ( 25,265)
Net gain (loss) 3,858 8,206 2,450 16,344 3,346 18,015Headcount change 71 (2,165) 618 1,462 545 2,850
Canadian SEM Summit • Vancouver, BC • May 14, 2009 13
Creating a SEM Decision Package
Phase 5: Create Reinvestment Strategies– Enrollment
– Gross revenue
– Net revenue
Canadian SEM Summit • Vancouver, BC • May 14, 2009 14
Costs and Reinvestments 10 Year Enrollment Planning Scenarios Model Assumptions SummaryOregon State University All dates reference Fall term calendar years.
DRIVER STEADY STATE GROWTH CAPACITY
Tuition Rates Graduate: No changeRes-UG incr 5% 2004; Res/Non-Res UG incr 5% every 2 years beginning in 2007
Tuition Plateau Changes Undergrad only: $25 increase per year to reach full per hour charge
eCampus Enrollment Overlap 15% annual increase per year
Tuition Remissions (undergraduate) Discount rate increases by tuition rate + 3% (to 18.2% in 2014 from 12.8% in 2003)
New Instructional Costs None
New Recruiting & Retention Costs None $400K per year, to $1.6 million $500K per year, to $2.0 million+ 2% per year thereafter + 2% per year thereafter
Retention increases 0.5%/year Retention increases 0.5%/year
New Faculty Additions - 146 214 Base Change in Gross Revenues +$8.8 million +$31.9 million +$46.4 million Base Change in State Support +$5.1 million +$12.2 million +$14.9 million New Instructional Costs - +$27.5 million +$38.6 million Base Change in Net Revenues +$13.9 million +$14.8 million +$20.4 million
$8,700 per student student FTE + 2% inflation per year
Financial Outcomes in Fiscal 2015
1 Tenure Track Faculty Addition per 20 New Students
Faculty additions based on total enrollments; revenues based on undergrad only.
Thank you!