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Integrated Assessment and IPCC:Links between climate change and sub-global environmental issues
presentation at Task Force Integrated Assessment Modelling,
Brussels, 14-16 May 2001
Rob SwartHead TSU IPCC Working Group III
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)
• IPCC was established in 1988 as an intergovernmental, integrated assessment process by UNEP and WMO
• Scientists in interdisciplinary writing teams are responsible for the substance of the assessments
•Governments determine the report outline, they review the 2nd draft, and approve the Summary for Policymakers line by line
• Work from 3 Working Groups (climate system, impacts/ adapta-tion, mitigation) is integrated in a Synthesis Report ( 5 year cycle)
• Main client: UNFCCC/SBSTA
• More information: http://www.ipcc.ch
The IPCC Process
Climate change and other environmental issues in IPCC
• The Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) includes scenarios for SO2, NOx, VOCs, CO in addition to all GHGs
• The Third Assessment Report evaluates the climatic changes (WG1) and impacts (WG2) associated with these scenarios
• The Third Assessment Report (WG3) notes that integration of climate change policies with other socio-economic and environmental policies (“co-benefits”) can make policies more effective
• A WRI/RFF/OECD/IPCC Workhop on Ancillary Benefits was organized in 2000; proceedings available from OECD
• A Special Report on Climate Change and Sustainable Development has been proposed which would explicitly address synergies and trade-offs between the various issues
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)
Figure 1.1a: An Integrated Assessment Framework for Considering Climate Change
Socio-Economic Development Paths
•Carbon dioxide•Methane•Nitrous oxide•Aerosols
•Main drivers are population,
energy,economic growth, technology and land use
•Temperature rise•Sea level rise•Precipitation change
•Floods and droughts•Biodiversity•Animal and plant health
Climate SystemHuman &
Natural Systems
Enhanced greenhouse
effect
Feedbacks
Non-climate change stresses
Interacti
ons
Air pollu
tion Environmental
impacts
Climate change impacts
Atmospheric Concentrations
Anthropogenic emissions
Linking Climate Change to Sustainable Development
SustainableDevelopment
AlternativeDevelopment
Pathways:Economy,
Equity,Technologies,Population,
Lifestyles, andInstitutions,
PolicyEmissions
ClimateChange
Adaptation, Vulnerability
Mitigation Environmental
Economic
Social
Special Report on Emission Scenarios
• Revision of 1992 reference scenarios (IS92)• Based on 1994 IPCC evaluation• IPCC 1996 request for new reference
scenarios, no additional climate initiatives• Based on literature review, development of
storylines, quantification with 6 models, open process, and 2 IPCC reviews
• Published 2000
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)
The SRES worlds
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)
SRES Scenarios
A2
A1
B2Global
Economic
Regional
Environmental
B1
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)
GLOBAL CO2 EMISSIONS FOR 6 SCENARIO GROUPS
(a)A140
30
20
10
0
40
30
20
10
01990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090
1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090
40
30
20
10
0
A1F1
40
30
20
10
0
A1B
A1T
(b) A2
(c) B1 (d) B2
A2
B2
B1
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)
GLOBAL ENERGY CO2 SCENARIOS AND DATABASE
0
2
4
6
8
10
1900 1950 2000 2050 2100
Glo
bal
Car
bon
Dio
xid
e Em
issi
ons
SRES
Sce
nar
ios
and
Dat
abas
e R
ange
(in
dex
, 199
0 =
1)
IS92
ran
ge
A1B
A2
B1
1990 range
Maximum in Database
Minimum in Database
To tal database range
No
n-in
terv
entio
n
No
n-cl
assi
fied
Inte
rven
tion
B2
A1F1
A1T
0
3 0
6 0
9 0
1 2 0
1 5 0
1 8 0
1 9 9 0 2 0 1 0 2 0 3 0 2 0 5 0 2 0 7 0 2 0 9 0
Glo
bal s
ulfu
r dio
xide
em
issi
ons
(MtS
/yr)
A 1 A IM
A 1 A S F
A 1 IM A G E
A 1 M E S S A G E
A 1 M IN IC A M
A 1 C A IM
A 1 C M E S S A G E
A 1 C M IN IC A M
A 1 G A IM
A 1 G M E S S A G E
A 1 G M IN IC A M
A 1 V 1 M IN IC A M
A 1 V 2 M IN IC A M
A 1 T A IM
A 1 T M E S S A G E
A 2 A S F
A 2 A IM
A 2 G IM A G E
A 2 M E S S A G E
A 2 M IN IC A M
A 2 -A 1 M IN IC A M
B 1 IM A G E
B 1 A IM
B 1 A S F
B 1 M E S S A G E
B 1 M IN IC A M
B 1 T M E S S A G E
B 1 H IG H M E S S A G E
B 1 H IG H M IN IC A M
B 2 M E S S A G E
B 2 A IM
B 2 A S F
B 2 IM A G E
B 2 M IN IC A M
B 2 H IG H M IN IC A M
5 %
2 5 %
m e a n
m e d ia n
7 5 %
9 5 % F igF ig u re 5 -1 2 : S ta n d a rd iz e d g lo b a l S O 2 e m is s io n s fo r S R E S sc e n a r io s , c la s s if ie d in to fo u rsc e n a r io fa m ilie s (e a c h d e n o te d b y a d if fe re n t c o lo r c o d e – A 1 , re d ; A 2 , b ro w n ; B 1 ,g re e n ; B 2 , b lu e ) . M a rk e r s c e n a r io s a re s h o w n w ith th ic k l in e s w ith o u t t ic k s , g lo b a llyh a rm o n iz e d s c e n a r io s w ith th in l in e s , a n d n o n -h a rm o n iz e d s c e n a r io s w ith th in , d o tte dlin e s (s e e T a b le 4 -3 ) . B la c k l in e s sh o w p e rc e n ti le s , m e a n s , a n d m e d ia n s fo r S R E Ssc e n a r io s .
F ig u re T S -1 0 : G lo b a l a n th ro p o g e n ic S O 2 e m is s io n s (M tS ) – h is to r ic a l d e v e lo p m e n t f ro m1 9 3 0 to 1 9 9 0 a n d (s ta n d a rd iz e d ) in th e S R E S s c e n a r io s . T h e d a s h e d c o lo re d t im e -p a th sd e p ic t in d iv id u a l S R E S s c e n a r io s , th e s o l id c o lo re d l in e s th e fo u r m a rk e r s c e n a r io s , th es o lid th in c u rv e s th e s ix IS 9 2 s c e n a r io s , th e s h a d e d a re a s th e ra n g e o f 8 1 s c e n a r io s f ro mth e l i te ra tu re , th e g ra y s h a d e d a re a th e s u lfu r-c o n tro l a n d th e b lu e s h a d e d a re a th e ra n g eo f s u lfu r-n o n -c o n tro l s c e n a r io s o r “ n o n -c la s s if ie d ” s c e n a r io s f ro m th e l i te r a tu re th a te x c e e d s th e ra n g e o f s u lfu r c o n tro l s c e n a r io s . T h e c o lo re d v e r t ic a l b a rs in d ic a te th e ra n g eo f th e S R E S s c e n a r io fa m il ie s in 2 1 0 0 . D a ta b a s e s o u rc e : G rü b le r (1 9 9 8 ) .
0
5 0
1 00
1 50
2 00
2 50
M axim um in d a tabase
M inim u m in d a tabase
Glo
bal
Su
lfu
r D
iox
ide
Em
issi
on
s(M
tS)
1 9 3 0 1 9 6 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 5 0 2 1 0 0
1 9 9 0 r a n g e
IS 9 2
A 2
B 1
Sul
fur
- n
on-c
ont
rol,
an
d n
on-
clas
sifi
ed s
cen
ario
s
Sul
fur
- co
ntr
ol
B 2
2 0 8 01 9 9 0
T o ta l d a tab a se r a n g e
R a n g e o f su lf u r -c o n t ro ls c e n a r io s in th e d a tab a se
A 1
0
4 0
8 0
1 2 0
1 6 0
1 9 9 0 2 0 1 0 2 0 3 0 2 0 5 0 2 0 7 0 2 0 9 0
Glo
bal n
itrog
en o
xide
s em
issi
ons
(MtN
/yr)
A 1 A IM
A 1 A S F
A 1 IM A G E
A 1 M E S S A G E
A 1 C A IM
A 1 C M E S S A G E
A 1 G A IM
A 1 G M E S S A G E
A 1 T A IM
A 1 T M E S S A G E
A 2 A S F
A 2 A IM
A 2 G IM A G E
A 2 M E S S A G E
B 1 IM A G E
B 1 A IM
B 1 A S F
B 1 M E S S A G E
B 1 T M E S S A G E
B 1 H IG H M E S S A G E
B 2 M E S S A G E
B 2 A IM
B 2 A S F
B 2 IM A G E
5 %
2 5 %
m e a n
m e d ia n
7 5 %
9 5 %
F ig u re 5 -9 : S ta n d a rd iz e d g lo b a l N O x e m is s io n s in S R E S sc e n a rio s , c la s s if ie d in to fo u rsc e n a rio fa m ilie s (e a c h d e n o te d b y a d iffe re n t c o lo r c o d e – A 1 , re d ; A 2 , b ro w n ; B 1 ,g re e n ; B 2 , b lu e ) . M a rk e r s c e n a rio s a re sh o w n w ith th ic k l in e s w ith o u t t ic k s , g lo b a llyh a rm o n iz e d sc e n a rio s w ith th in lin e s , a n d n o n -h a rm o n iz e d sc e n a rio s w ith th in , d o tte dlin e s (se e T a b le 4 -3 ) . B la c k lin e s sh o w p e rc e n tile s , m e a n s , a n d m e d ia n s fo r S R E Ssc e n a rio s .
The IPCC WG III TAR in one view• Technologies are available today to keep climate change impacts
limited in the long term and stop the growth of global GHG emissions in the short term
• The costs of implementing the Kyoto Protocol can be kept low, provided implementation is done efficiently and long-term costs can be kept relatively low if optimum timing is chosen
• The real problem of controlling emissions is to overcome the many political, economic, social and behavioural barriers to implementing mitigation options
• There is a strong link between sustainable development and climate change mitigation: look for synergies and avoid trade-offs
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)
Findings SRES/TAR related to acidifying compounds and ozone precursors
• In most SRES scenarios, after an initial increase, sulfur emissions are assumed to decrease worldwide after a few decades, due to concerted policy action
• This is one of the main reasons that in the TAR the projected climate effects (temperature, sea level) exceed those in earlier IPCC reports
• GHG mitigation can have very important ancillary benefits for regional and local air pollution, and vice versa
• More detailed analysis at the regional level is needed, especially for future emissions of NOx and other ozone precursors, and options for abatement synergy
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)
Excerpts from SPM IPCC WG3• “Some mitigation actions may yield extensive benefits in areas outside of climate change: for example, they may reduce health problems; increase employment; reduce negative environmental impacts (like air pollution); protect and enhance forests, soils and watersheds; reduce those subsidies and taxes which enhance greenhouse gas emissions; and induce technological change and diffusion, contributing to wider goals of sustainable development. Similarly, development paths that meet sustainable development objectives may result in lower levels of greenhouse gas emissions.”
• “The effectiveness of climate change mitigation can be enhanced when climate policies are integrated with the non-climate objectives of national and sectorial policy development and be turned into broad transition strategies to achieve the long-term social and technological changes required by both sustainable development and climate change mitigation. Just as climate policies can yield ancillary benefits that improve well being, non-climate
policies may produce climate benefits.”
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)
0
2 0 0
4 0 0
6 0 0
1 9 9 0 2 0 1 0 2 0 3 0 2 0 5 0 2 0 7 0 2 0 9 0Glo
bal n
on-m
etha
ne v
olat
ile o
rgan
ic c
ompo
unds
em
issi
ons
(Mt/y
r)A 1 A IM
A 1 A S F
A 1 IM A G E
A 1 M E S S A G E
A 1 C A IM
A 1 C M E S S A G E
A 1 G A IM
A 1 G M E S S A G E
A 1 T A IM
A 1 T M E S S A G E
A 2 A S F
A 2 A IM
A 2 G IM A G E
A 2 M E S S A G E
B 1 IM A G E
B 1 A IM
B 1 A S F
B 1 M E S S A G E
B 1 T M E S S A G E
B 1 H IG H M E S S A G E
B 2 M E S S A G E
B 2 A IM
B 2 A S F
B 2 IM A G E
5 %
2 5 %
m e a n
m e d ia n
7 5 %
9 5 %
F ig u re 5 -1 0 : S ta n d a rd iz e d g lo b a l e m iss io n s o f N M V O C s fo r S R E S sc e n a rio s , c la s s if ie din to fo u r sc e n a rio fa m ilie s (e a c h d e n o te d b y a d iffe re n t c o lo r c o d e – A 1 , re d ; A 2 , b ro w n ;B 1 , g re e n ; B 2 , b lu e ) . M a rk e r sc e n a rio s a re sh o w n w ith th ic k l in e s w ith o u t t ic k s , g lo b a llyh a rm o n iz e d sc e n a rio s w ith th in lin e s , a n d n o n -h a rm o n iz e d sc e n a rio s w ith th in , d o tte dlin e s (se e T a b le 4 -3 ) . B la c k lin e s sh o w p e rc e n tile s , m e a n s , a n d m e d ia n s fo r S R E Ssc e n a rio s .
0
1 0 0 0
2 0 0 0
3 0 0 0
4 0 0 0
1 9 9 0 2 0 1 0 2 0 3 0 2 0 5 0 2 0 7 0 2 0 9 0
Glo
bal c
arbo
n m
onox
ide
emis
sion
s (M
tCO
/yr)
A 1 A IM
A 1 A S F
A 1 IM A G E
A 1 M E S S A G E
A 1 C A IM
A 1 C M E S S A G E
A 1 G A IM
A 1 G M E S S A G E
A 1 T A IM
A 1 T M E S S A G E
A 2 A S F
A 2 A IM
A 2 G IM A G E
A 2 M E S S A G E
B 1 IM A G E
B 1 A IM
B 1 A S F
B 1 M E S S A G E
B 1 T M E S S A G E
B 1 H IG H M E S S A G E
B 2 M E S S A G E
B 2 A IM
B 2 A S F
B 2 IM A G E
5 %
2 5 %
m e a n
m e d ia n
7 5 %
9 5 %
F ig u re 5 -1 1 : S ta n d a rd iz e d g lo b a l e m is s io n s o f C O fo r S R E S sc e n a rio s , c la s s if ie d in tofo u r sc e n a rio fa m ilie s (e a c h d e n o te d b y a d if fe re n t c o lo r c o d e – A 1 , re d ; A 2 , b ro w n ; B 1 ,g re e n ; B 2 , b lu e ) . M a rk e r s c e n a rio s a re sh o w n w ith th ic k l in e s w ith o u t t ic k s , g lo b a llyh a rm o n iz e d sc e n a rio s w ith th in l in e s , a n d n o n -h a rm o n iz e d sc e n a rio s w ith th in , d o tte dlin e s (s e e T a b le 4 -3 ) . B la c k lin e s sh o w p e rc e n tile s , m e a n s , a n d m e d ia n s fo r S R E Ssc e n a rio s .
