1/5/21

1

Insurgent StrategyIAFF 6186: Insurgency and Counterinsurgency

Dr. Iris Malone

1

Agenda

• Sun Tzu vs Clausewitz• Center of Gravity (COG)• 3 Insurgent Strategies

• Protracted Warfare• Foco-ism• Netwar

2

1/5/21

2

Recall: Strategy

• Main Idea: Why (insurgents) fight• Key Concepts:• Strategy = Ends + Ways + Means • Ends = Desired Outcome = End States• Strategic Challenges = Affect Ability to Achieve Desired Outcomes

What does this mean for insurgency?

3

Sun Tzu and Carl von Clausewitz

• Prominent Military Strategists• Sun Tzu (Art of War)• Carl von Clausewitz (On War)

• Writings influence both modern insurgency and COIN thinking• Key Takeaways• Defensive Advantages• Indirect Engagement

4

1/5/21

3

Sun Tzu and The Art of War

• Context• Warring Period• Written ~500 BC

• Key Quotes• “The supreme art of war is to subdue the

enemy without fighting.”• “Know the enemy better than you know

yourself.”• “All warfare is based on deception.”

5

Sun Tzu and The Art of War

• Principle of Strategy• Defense > Offense• Indirect > Direct Engagement

• Key Concepts• Deception• Speed• Terrain

6

1/5/21

4

Clausewitz and On War

• Context• Response to Antoine-Henri Jomini• Napoleonic Wars• Published 1832-1835

• Key Quote• “War is continuation of politics by

other means”• Principles of Strategy• Purpose of War à Coercion• Offense when Stronger; Defense

when Weaker

7

Key Clausewitzian Concepts• Trinity of War: Forces governing

conduct of war• Government• Military• People

• Friction: Chance/Luck • Fog of War: Uncertainty/Chaos

8

1/5/21

5

Key Clausewitzian Concepts• Center of Gravity (COG): “the

hub of all power and movement, on which everything depends.” • COG is source of power that

provides…• political strength,• physical strength, • moral strength, and• economic strength

If the objective cannot be accomplished without this source of power, then it is a COG.

9

Effect of Sun Tzu & Clausewitz on Insurgent Thinking

• Ends: Coerce Government to Meet Demands• But Strategic Challenge: Asymmetric Capabilities/Resources • How to Achieve Desired End States?• Ways (Verbs): Defense + Indirect Engagement• Means (Nouns): Strong Center of Gravity

10

1/5/21

6

Asymmetric Resources Affect Insurgent Ways

• Ways (Verbs): Defense + Indirect Engagement• Influence • Surprise• Deceive• Finance• Recruit

11

Insurgent Ways Require Various COGs• Means (Nouns): Center of Gravity• Leadership• People• Territory• Funding/Resources• Equipment• Ideology

12

1/5/21

7

Example: Center of Gravity inside ISIS• Means (Nouns): Center of Gravity• Leadership: Abu al Baghdadi• People: Fighting Force and

Community Support• Territorial Control• Funding/Resources: Oil, Extortion,

Donations• Equipment: Weapons + Vehicles• Ideology: Salafi Jihadism

Source: CNNFor more see Smith et al (2015)

13

Different Insurgent Strategies

14

1/5/21

8

Strategy Depends on Desired Ends + Means

• There is no one insurgent strategy.• Choice of strategy depends on…• Desired End States• Means/Resources• Environmental Challenges

• 3 Prominent Strategies• Protracted Warfare (Mao)• Foquismo (Che + Debray)• Netwar (21st Century)

15

1. Protracted Warfare (People’s Warfare)

• Mao Zedong, “On Guerrilla Warfare” (1937)• Heavily influenced by Sun Tzu:

• “The only real defense is active defense”• “The guerrilla must move amongst the

people as a fish swims in the sea.”

• Main Idea: • Resolve > Capabilities• Key COG: the people.• Armed struggle timing depends on

“objective conditions”• Grow the struggle à revolution.

For more see Mao

16

1/5/21

9

Three-Stage Model of Insurgency• Phase 1: Underground• Conspiratorial organization, recruitment, capacity-building, propaganda à

increase insurgency’s popular support

• Phase 2: Guerrilla• Indirect engagement, guerrilla warfare, terrorism à attack enemy forces

• Phase 3: Conventional• Conventional fighting and direct engagement à reduce enemy’s popular

support

Stage 1:Underground

Stage 2:Guerrilla War

Stage 3: Conventional

War

17

Example: Chinese Civil War (1945-1949)

PLA troops entering Beijing, 1949

18

1/5/21

10

Limits to Protracted Warfare

•Waiting for “objective conditions”•Unpredictable•Risk populace still doesn’t support

•Assumes strong hierarchical control•Long Timeline à Risk Fatigue•Exogenous events can affect transitions between stages

19

2. Foco Theory (foquismo)• Main Texts:• Che Guevara, Guerrilla Warfare (1961) • Regis Debray, Revolution in the

Revolution (1967)

• Critiques timing & need for “objective conditions” • Main Idea: • Catalyze the struggle independently à

revolution.• Inspire locals to rise up• Key COG: the leadership (vanguard).

20

1/5/21

11

Example: Cuban Revolution (1953-1959)

21

Limits to Foco Theory

• Leadership vulnerabilities• Collective Action Problems• Other barriers to cascade effects• Exporting Revolution à• Local Mistrust • Vanguard Overreach• Example: Bolivia 1967 (Capture and

Death of Che Guevara)

For more critiques, see Childs (1995)

Capture of Che Guevara in Bolivia

22

1/5/21

12

3. Net-War• Critiques leadership and hierarchy• Motivation: • Information Revolution• New Communication Technologies

• ICT Consequences:• Urban density becomes advantage• Decentralized organization• Reduces reliance on leadership• Reduces collective action barriers

Source: FM 3-24

23

3. Net-War• Main Idea: • Social networks make survival and

diffusion easier, destruction harder• Destroying one cell has little effect on

overall movement• Key COG: the people (networks).

• Result: Net-Insurgency• Cell-based • Urban • Adaptability/Flexibility

Source: FM 3-24

24

1/5/21

13

Example: Iraq Insurgency (2003-2008)

Source: Mapping Militants Project

25

Conclusion• Strategy = ends + ways + means• Sun Tzu and Clausewitz heavily influenced modern insurgent strategy• Main source of power in an insurgency is its Center of Gravity (COG)• Different strategies have different ends + ways + means• People’s War (Mao)• Foco Theory (Che)• Networked/Netwar (Today)

26