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IHS CHEMICAL Presentation Instituto Instituto Petroqu Petroquímico ímico Argentino Argentino ih Instituto Instituto Petroqu Petroquímico ímico Argentino Argentino - An Overview of the An Overview of the Petrochemical Industry Petrochemical Industry - ihs.com 05 May 2015 Rina Quijada © 2015 IHS Rina Quijada IHS Chemical Sr Director Latin America

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Page 1: Instituto Petroquímico Argentino -- An Overview of the An ... · -- An Overview of the An Overview of the Petrochemical Industry Petrochemical Industry -- ... V l tilit ill tiPrice

IHS CHEMICALPresentation

InstitutoInstituto PetroquPetroquímicoímico ArgentinoArgentino

ih

InstitutoInstituto PetroquPetroquímicoímico ArgentinoArgentino-- An Overview of the An Overview of the Petrochemical Industry Petrochemical Industry --

ihs.com05 May 2015

Rina Quijada

© 2015 IHS

Rina QuijadaIHS Chemical Sr Director Latin America

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Presentation Name / Month 2015

AGENDAAGENDA

•ECONOMIC OVERVIEW•ENERGY OVERVIEW•THE INDUSTRY•THE INDUSTRY •CLOSING REMARKS

© 2015 IHS 2

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A gradual acceleration in the global economyWorld Outlook/ April 2015

• Global growth will gradually pick up, supported by lower oil prices and accommodative monetary policies.y p

• Consumer spending and homebuilding lead the US acceleration.

• The Eurozone’s delayed recovery is gaining momentum, aided by monetary stimulus, euro depreciation, and pent-up demand.

• China’s growth will slow to 6.5% in 2015, restrained by imbalances in credit, housing, and industrial markets., g,

• Several emerging markets are in recession—Russia, Venezuela, Argentina, and Brazil.

• Growth paths in emerging markets will depend on structural reforms that raise productivity and allocate capital more efficiently.

© 2015 IHS 3

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Economic Perspectives for 2015

© 2015 IHS, Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent.

• Regional growth is now estimated at 0.6%, provided that Mexico grows 2.6%, with Colombia and Peru growing 3.5% and 4.4% respectively. Argentina, Brazil and Venezuela expected to report disappointing GDP

f i 2015performance in 2015. • Significant challenges expected. Although we expect lower oil prices,

global economic growth is slowing down. • Volatile commodity prices with continued downward pressure (agricultural

products, metals and minerals, oil and gas) along with inadequate fiscal polices and financial uncertainty will affect economic performance in the yregion.

• Currency devaluation should encourage exports, benefiting export oriented industries across the region. However, it can also drive inflation g ,up, constraint local demand and consumer confidence, and cause social unrest as people will see their income losing purchasing power.

• High inflation may also reverse the social advances the region has made

© 2015 IHS

High inflation may also reverse the social advances the region has made in the last 10 years.

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GDP 2014 Latin America Main Economies

ArgentinaArgentina99%%

OthersOthers12%12% 99%%

PeruPeru

VenezuelaVenezuela5%5%

12%12%

OthersOthers45%45%

BrazilBrazilMexicoMexico21%21%

33%%

MercosurMercosur5555%%

4040%%

ColombiaColombiaChileChile4%4%

21%21%

Total GDP LatinTotal GDP Latin America = US$ America = US$ 5.72 Trillion (2010 US$)5.72 Trillion (2010 US$)Total LA Population = 623 million in 2014Total LA Population = 623 million in 2014

6%6%

© 2015 IHS

Total LA Population 623 million in 2014Total LA Population 623 million in 2014

** Mercosur includes Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay and Venezuela From IHS Database

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Economic Growth in Latin America

© 2015 IHS, Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent.

GDP G th %GDP G th %

6,06,0

8,08,0Latin AmericaLatin America WorldWorld USAUSA

GDP Growth, %GDP Growth, %

2,02,0

44,,00

--2,02,0

0,00,0

--4,04,020082008 20092009 20102010 20112011 20122012 20132013 20142014 20152015 20162016 20172017 20182018

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018A ti 3 1 0 1 9 5 8 4 0 8 2 9 0 5 1 4 2 0 3 5 4 0Argentina 3.1 0.1 9.5 8.4 0.8 2.9 0.5 -1.4 2.0 3.5 4.0Brazil 5.2 -0.3 7.6 3.9 1.8 2.7 0.1 -1.1 0.7 1.9 2.5Chile 3.3 -1.0 5.8 5.8 5.5 4.2 1.9 2.8 3.5 3.8 4.3Colombia 3.5 1.7 4.0 6.6 4.0 4.7 4.6 3.5 3.7 4.2 4.1

© 2015 IHS

Mexico 1.4 -4.7 5.1 4.0 4.0 1.4 2.1 2.6 3.6 4.0 4.1Peru 9.1 1.1 8.4 6.5 6.0 5.7 2.4 4.4 5.0 4.9 4.7

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Outlook for the Region

© 2015 IHS, Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent.

• Slower GDP growth for the region in 2015

P i V l tilit ill ti• Price Volatility will continue

• Lower crude oil prices will affect countries that depend on its income to balance budgets.

• Currency exchange will continue to affect local resin pricesaffect local resin prices.

© 2015 IHS

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Presentation Name / Month 2015

Global Energy Overview

Rina Quijada

© 2015 IHS 8

jIHS Chemical Sr Director Latin America

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Crude Oil vs. Natural GasPresentation Name / Month 2015

15025Natural Gas, Dollars Per MMBtu Crude, Dollars Per Barrel

120

150

20

25

9015

30

60

5

10

0009A J O10A J O11A J O12A J O13A J O14A J O15A J O16A J O

© 2015 IHS 9

Natural Gas WTI Brent

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Extreme Energy Differentials Create Opportunities and Presentation Name / Month 2015

Risks – March 2014

20Constant 2012 Dollars Per MMBtu

Brent Crude & US Energy Prices

15

20 Brent Crude & US Energy Prices

10

5

02000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

© 2015 IHS 10

Brent Crude USGC Light Naphtha Henry Hub Gas Ethane

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Extreme Energy Differentials Create Opportunities and Presentation Name / Month 2015

Risks – March March 20152015

20Constant 2012 Dollars Per MMBtu

Brent Crude & US Energy Prices

15

20

10

5

02000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

© 2015 IHS 11

Brent Crude USGC Light Naphtha Henry Hub Gas Ethane

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Production of Oil and Natural GasSelected Countries – USA, Russia and Saudi Arabia

Energy in Quadrillion BTU

50

40

45

50

25

30

35

USA Gas

USA Oil

Russia Gas

10

15

20Russia Oil

KSA Gas

KSA Oil

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20140

5

© 2015 IHS

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Production of Oil and Natural GasU.S. Surplus Takes Stocks to Record Levels

© 2015 IHS

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Production of Oil and Natural GasNatural Gas Stocks Also Healthy

U.S. NATURAL GAS UNDERGROUND STORAGE VS PRICE

7,00

8,00

3500

4000 2013Billion Cubic Feet US$ Per MMBtu

2014

4 00

5,00

6,00

2000

2500

3000

2,00

3,00

4,00

1000

1500

2000

0,00

1,00

0

500

J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A

© 2015 IHS

NG Storage NG Price (Henry Hub)

Source: EIA

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Presentation Name / Month 2015

Regional Energy Overview

Rina Quijada

© 2015 IHS 15

jIHS Chemical Sr Director Latin America

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Oil and Gas - Winners and Losers

© 2015 IHS, Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent.

Oil Production in Oil Production in Latin AmericaLatin America

500Total Exports

(Billion (Billion US$) US$)

2014 2014 -- Oil and Gas Exports vs Total ExportsOil and Gas Exports vs Total Exports

MexicoMexico2727%%All OthersAll Others

9%9%

ArgentinaArgentina7%7% 398

400

Total Exports

Oil & Gas

ColombiaColombia99%%

225

300

VenezuelaVenezuelaBrazilBrazil2424%% 86

5874 83 100

200

VenezuelaVenezuela24%24%

1226

58

614293321

30

© 2015 IHS

Total in Total in 20132013: : 1010..94 94 MMBPDMMBPD

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Oil and Gas - Winners and Losers

© 2015 IHS, Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent.

Electricity Generation by Sources Electricity Generation by Sources 20142014

NuclearNuclear2%2% HydroelectHydroelectOilOil4%4%

2%2%

OthersOthers1010%%

BrazilBrazil

HydroelectHydroelect1212%%

CoalCoal12%12%

OilOil1212%%

NuclearNuclear44%%

OthersOthers10%10%

HydroelectHydroelect6767%%

CoalCoal

Gas Gas 1313%%

1212%%

MexicoMexico4%4% Gas Gas

52%52%

© 2015 IHS

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Oil and Gas - Winners and Losers

© 2015 IHS, Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent.

B il N h h S i iB il N h h S i i 20152015Brazil Naphtha Scenario in Brazil Naphtha Scenario in 20152015BrazilBrazil EthyleneEthylene RawRaw MaterialsMaterials Brazil Petrochemical Naphtha Imports in Brazil Petrochemical Naphtha Imports in 20142014

Total of Total of 44..8 8 MMMM--tonstons

Ref GasRef Gas3%3%

EthanolEthanol55%%

1%1% 55%%

ArgeliaArgelia

VenezuelaVenezuela

E/PE/P13%13%

4242%%88%%77%%

3%3%1%1%

ArgentinaArgentina

USAUSA

PP

1010%%

9%9%PeruPeru

MoroccoMorocco

SpainSpainNaphthaNaphtha

79%79%1515%%

The NetherlandsThe Netherlands

OthersOthers

Total Naphtha Demand inTotal Naphtha Demand in 20142014 was overwas over 88 MMMM--tonstons

© 2015 IHS

Total EthyleneTotal Ethylene CapacityCapacity: 3.95 : 3.95 MMTAMMTATotal Naphtha Demand in Total Naphtha Demand in 2014 2014 was over was over 8 8 MMMM tons tons

Over Over 5050% of this fulfilled with imported naphtha% of this fulfilled with imported naphtha

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Oil and Gas - Winners and Losers

© 2015 IHS, Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent.

B il N h h S i iB il N h h S i i 20152015Brazil Naphtha Scenario in Brazil Naphtha Scenario in 20152015Brazil Ethylene Raw Brazil Ethylene Raw MaterialsMaterials Brazil Petrochemical Naphtha Imports in Brazil Petrochemical Naphtha Imports in 20142014

Total of Total of 44..8 8 MMMM--tonstons

Ref GasRef Gas3%3%

EthanolEthanol55%%

1%1% 55%%

ArgeliaArgelia

VenezuelaVenezuela

E/PE/P13%13%

4242%%88%%7%7%

3%3%1%1%

ArgentinaArgentina

USAUSA

PP

10%10%

99%%PeruPeru

MoroccoMorocco

SpainSpainNaphthaNaphtha

79%79%1515%%

The NetherlandsThe Netherlands

OthersOthers

Total Naphtha Demand in 2014 was over 8 MMTotal Naphtha Demand in 2014 was over 8 MM--tonstons

© 2015 IHS

Total EthyleneTotal Ethylene CapacityCapacity: 3.95 : 3.95 MMTAMMTATotal Naphtha Demand in 2014 was over 8 MMTotal Naphtha Demand in 2014 was over 8 MM tons tons

Over 50% of this fulfilled with imported naphthaOver 50% of this fulfilled with imported naphtha

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Presentation Name / Month 2015

Currency Overview

Rina Quijada

© 2015 IHS 20

jIHS Chemical Sr Director Latin America

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Latin America Dealing with Currency Exchange Risk in 2015

Currency Devaluation in Latin America 2013 2015Currency Devaluation in Latin America 2013-2015

12/15/2013 3/15/2014 6/15/2014 9/15/2014 12/15/2014 3/15/2015 4/15/2015 % Dev.

Argentina 6.32 7.92 8.13 8.40 8.55 8.79 8.87 40%

Brazil 2.32 2.35 2.23 2.35 2.69 3.26 3.06 32%

Chile 529.5 572.0 554.8 590.6 617.5 639.0 614.0 16%

Colombia 1931 2045 1877 1995 2405 2662 2551 32%

Daily Referencial Market Rates

Mexico 12.93 13.25 12.98 13.21 14.52 15.40 15.29 18%

Peru 2.76 2.81 2.79 2.86 2.96 3.10 3.12 13%

© 2015 IHS

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Mexican Polyolefins Average Prices

28 000

30.000 1.900 MEX $US$

24.000

26.000

28.000

1.500

1.700

18.000

20.000

22.000

1.300

12 000

14.000

16.000

900

1.100

Mexico is not as affected by devaluation as Brazil. Up to

10.000

12.000

700 oct-14 nov-14 dic-14 ene-15 feb-15 mar-15 abr-15

April 2015, there is 9% difference between price in US$ versus price decrease in MEX pesos (26% vs 17%).

© 2015 IHS

Ave. US$ Ave. Pesos Ave. Pesos w/o Devaluation

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Brazilian Polyolefins Average Prices

6.700 2.300

BRA R$US$

5.700 1.900

2.100

3 700

4.700

1 300

1.500

1.700

2.700

3.700

900

1.100

1.300

From October 2014, while prices in US$ are down by 19% prices in BRA reais actually increased by 1%

1.700 700

900

oct-14 nov-14 dic-14 ene-15 feb-15 mar-15 abr-15

19%, prices in BRA reais actually increased by 1% due to te steep devaluation of the Brazilian currency

© 2015 IHS

Ave. US$ Ave. Reais Ave. Reais w/o Devt.

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Presentation Name / Month 2015

THE INDUSTRY

Rina Quijada

© 2015 IHS 24

jIHS Chemical Sr Director Latin America

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Presentation Name / Month 2015Customers of the Customers of the Chemical IndustryChemical IndustryChemical Industry Value ChainNatural Natural ResourcesResources

Mining, Drilling, Refining & Gas

Basic Chemicals

• Automotive /Transportation

Chemical Intermediat

esFormulated Products / Performance Materials

Processing Olefins(ethylene, propylene, butylene)

• Consumer products

• Packaging• Building &

construction

Commodities

• Plastics & Engineering Resins− Extruded films, pipe, profiles,

coatings, sheet, foams, sheet− Blow-molded parts

I j ti ld d t

• Oil

Aromatics(benzene, toluene,

xylenes)

Chlor-Alkali

construction• Recreation /Sport• Industrial• Medical

Pharmaceuticals

− Injection molded parts− Composites

• Synthetic Fibers• Rubber Products• Paints & Coatings

• Gas• Coal• Minerals

Chlor Alkali(chlorine, caustic

soda)

Methanol

• Pharmaceuticals• Personal care• Textiles• Electrical/

Electronics

Differentiated Commodities

a ts & Coat gs• Adhesives & Sealants• Lubricants• Water Treatment products• Cleaning Products

Industrial Chemicals• Renewables

Others(e.g., ammonia, phosphorous)

Electronics• Aircraft /

Aerospace• Business

equipmentTechnical

Specialties

• Industrial Chemicals• Flame Retardants• Many others…

© 2015 IHS 25

phosphorous)

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Basic Chemical Global Statistics - 2014 Presentation Name / Month 2015

90200Million Metric Tons Capacity Utilization, %

80

90

160

200

60

70

80

120

40

50

0

40

400

© 2015 IHS 26

Capacity Demand Utilization

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Base Chemical Capacity Additions: Presentation Name / Month 2015

2010 – 2020 = 231 Million Metric Tons

80Million Metric Tons

60

80

MethanolMethanol PropylenePropylene

BenzeneBenzeneParaxyleneParaxylene

EthyleneEthylene40

MethanolMethanol pypy

ChlorineChlorine

20

0Methanol Propylene Ethylene Paraxylene Chlorine Benzene

© 2015 IHS 27

2010/15 2015/20 2010/20

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Ethylene Cash Cost Comparison Presentation Name / Month 2015

16002011 2013 2015US$ / Metric Ton

1200

1600

800

400

0Saudi Arabia

U.S. Ethane

Western Canada

China CTO Saudi Arabia

Northeast Asia

West Europe

China MTO

© 2015 IHS 28

Ethane Naphtha Naphthap

Naphtha

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Ethylene Cash Cost Comparison Presentation Name / Month 2015

16002013 2015US$ / Metric Ton

1200

1600Brent Crude Natural Gas

Year ($/Bbl) ($/MM Btu)2011 111 4.14

800

2013 109 3.762015 48 3.26

400

0Saudi Arabia

U.S. Ethane

Western Canada

China CTO Saudi Arabia

Northeast Asia

West Europe

China MTO

© 2015 IHS 29

Ethane Naphtha Naphthap

Naphtha

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Presentation Name / Month 2015

Investment Drivers Vary By Region By Value Chain

• North America (USA)Leverage low cost natural gas based

chemicals into investments in ethylenechemicals into investments in ethylene, propylene and methanol based derivatives.

Invest to establish export channels to market that exceed historical norms

• Middle East (Saudi Arabia)Moderated investment pace, diversified

feedslate to support downstream market d l t d ti d i d t i ldevelopment and continued industrial expansion well beyond ethylene chemistry

• North East Asia (China)St d ti i t t f dStrong domestic investment focused on reducing import dependencies.

Leverage coal to chemicals technology near term

© 2015 IHS 30

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Presentation Name / Month 2015

Investments Seek A Sustainable Advantage

• Energy & Feedstocks60-70% of the costs of chemical

production; competitive advantage in energy and feedstock costs is key

Raw Material Raw Material & Energy & Energy

CostsCosts• Technology & ScaleEnable competitive production costs,

capital cost savings, economies of Demand Demand G th &G th &

Technology Technology gscale, high performance products.

• Proximity & Access to MarketsP i it t d d th ti l

Growth & Growth & Access to Access to MarketsMarkets

& & Economies Economies

of Scaleof Scale

Proximity to demand growth essential without distinct cost or technology advantage. Trade access is also key.

© 2015 IHS 31

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Presentation Name / Month 2015

Top 5 Countries Adding Base Chemical Capacity f231 Million Tons from 2010 to 2020

120Million Metric Tons

80

100

120

Top five will add nearly 75% of base chemical capacity. China will dominate new

20

40

60 capacity, adding 45% of total

0

20

China United States

Saudi Arabia

S. Korea India

Chlorine Paraxylene Benzene

Methanol Propylene Ethylene

© 2015 IHS 32

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Presentation Name / Month 2015

Regional Trade Is Critical To Success

• Trade is an essential element of basic chemical supply chainsbasic chemical supply chains

• Low cost countries such as the United States and Saudi Arabia

ill t i i lwill export increasing volumes

• On-purpose technology will change propylene trade patterns5 Countries Adding 75% of Base Chemical g y

• Significant investment in ships, ports, and infrastructure is needed to support increasing

Capacity: 2010 to 2020 (231 MM Metric Tons)

needed to support increasing trade volumes

© 2015 IHS 33

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Presentation Name / Month 2015

Polyethylene Market Outlook

Rina Quijada

© 2015 IHS 34

jIHS Chemical Sr Director Latin America

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Latin America PE DemandLatin America PE DemandMillion Metric TonsMillion Metric Tons PercentPercent

7%7%88%%9%9%1010%%

77 008,08,099,,00

10,010,0

44%%5%5%6%6%7%7%

44,,005,05,066,,0077,,00

0%0%11%%22%%3%3%

0 00 01,01,02,02,033,,00

0%0%0,00,020102010 20112011 20122012 20132013 20142014 20152015 20162016 20172017 20182018 20192019 20202020

LDPE Demand LDPE Demand LLDPE Demand LLDPE Demand HDPE Demand HDPE Demand

© 2015 IHS

CapacityCapacity Demand Growth %Demand Growth % GDP % ChangeGDP % Change

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Ethylene Equivalent Trade Continues To ExpandPresentation Name / Month 2015

40 0Ethylene Net Equivalent TradeMillion Metric Tons

20,0

40,0Net Exports

0,0

-20,0

-40,000 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20

North America South America West Europe Middle East

Net Imports

© 2015 IHS 36

North America South America West Europe Middle EastIndian Sub. Northeast Asia Southeast Asia Others

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NAM PE Capacity Addition ListLDPELDPE LLDPELLDPE HDPEHDPE

20152015--2016201620152015--20162016 20152015--20162016

201720172017201720172017 20172017

20182018--2019201920182018--20192019 20182018--20192019

Ascent Ascent ((BraskemBraskem))

Ascent Ascent ((BraskemBraskem))NovaNova

ShellShell

© 2015 IHS

ShellShell Badlands Badlands NGLNGL

Appalachian Appalachian ResinResin

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Presentation Name / Month 2015

Polypropylene Market Outlook

Rina Quijada

© 2015 IHS 38

jIHS Chemical Sr Director Latin America

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PP America’s Supply & Demand

Million Metric TonsMillion Metric Tons Operating Rate Operating Rate

8080%%

100100%%

12,012,0

1515,,00

4040%%

6060%%

6,06,0

9,09,0

AAGR AAGR 1414--19 19 Americas =Americas =22..77%%

00%%

20%20%

0,00,0

3,03,0 11..4 4 MMTMMT

--20%20%--3,03,020092009 20102010 20112011 20122012 20132013 20142014 20152015 20162016 20172017 20182018 20192019

© 2015 IHS

Domestic DemandDomestic Demand Net ExportsNet Exports Total Capacity Total Capacity Operating RateOperating Rate

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Polypropylene: Americas Trade B lBalance

1 51 5

Net Trade, Million Metric TonsNet Trade, Million Metric Tons

11,,00

1,51,5

00 00

00,,55

--00,,55

00,,00

--1,01,00909 1010 1111 1212 1313 1414 1515 1616 1717 1818 1919

S th A i N t T dS th A i N t T d N th A i N t T dN th A i N t T d NAM E tNAM E t SAM I tSAM I t

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South America Net TradeSouth America Net Trade North America Net TradeNorth America Net Trade NAM Exports NAM Exports -- SAM ImportsSAM Imports

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Who Will Announce PP in North America?

RefineryRefineryEthyleneEthyleneyy

© 2015 IHS © 2015 IHS, Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent.

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NorthNorth American American PropylenePropyleneNorth America On Purpose Propylene Capacity Additions LatestNorth America On Purpose Propylene Capacity Additions LatestNorth America On Purpose Propylene Capacity Additions Latest North America On Purpose Propylene Capacity Additions Latest UpdateUpdate

Company Location 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020+ TotalTh d M t i T

BASF US Gulf Coast 250 250 500Dow Freeport, TX 375 375 750Enterprise Mont Belvieu, TX 362 363 725Ascend Alvin TX 586 587 1173

Thousand Metric Tons

Ascend Alvin, TX 586 587 1173Formosa Point Comfort, TX 600 600Williams Redwater, Alberta 250 250 500RexTac Odessa 400 400

Firm: 0 375 737 363 1436 1487 250 4648

Other Developments:Other Developments:•• Flint Hills purchases the Flint Hills purchases the PETROLOGISTICS PETROLOGISTICS Propylene PDH facility. Propylene PDH facility.

Firm: 0 375 737 363 1436 1487 250 4648

•• BASF evaluating “Methane to Propylene” unit for 2019. BASF evaluating “Methane to Propylene” unit for 2019. Estimated capacity at close to 500 Estimated capacity at close to 500 ktonsktons with a world scale 1.5 with a world scale 1.5 mmtmmt methanol methanol plant.plant.

•• LYB announces PO/TBA unit for 2019LYB announces PO/TBA unit for 2019

© 2015 IHS

LYB announces PO/TBA unit for 2019. LYB announces PO/TBA unit for 2019. This would consume approximately 300 This would consume approximately 300 ktonsktons of propylene.of propylene.

•• OxeaOxea to build 2to build 2--EH facility with start up in 2016. EH facility with start up in 2016.

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North America PP Projects

Company Location 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Company Location 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Rextac Odessa, TX 370 (Thousand Metric Tons)

Unknown(s)* US Gulf Coast 200 220 95Unknown* Canada 440

Total: 0 0 0 200 595 535Total: 0 0 0 200 595 535* Reported projects not fully verified or approved and not included in IHS capacity database* Reported projects not fully verified or approved and not included in IHS capacity database

New Market Player LikelyNew Market Player Likelyy yy y

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Presentation Name / Month 2015

Closing Comments

Rina Quijada

© 2015 IHS 44

jIHS Chemical Sr Director Latin America

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Conclusions

• Short term debottlenecks most likely source of new PP in Americas

• Oversupply in Asia to redirect exports to other emerging regions including the Americas

• Cyclical peak of profitability ahead in North America should drive newCyclical peak of profitability ahead in North America should drive new PP investment matched with PDH or GTP

• South American margins likely to improve also though Asian imports and finished goods could provide a capand finished goods could provide a cap

© 2015 IHS

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The New Normal

© 2015 IHS, Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent.

• Geopolitical situations have less impact on crude oil prices.• Supply/Demand balance over rules global unreast• Supply/Demand balance over rules global unreast.• Opec ‘s production less responsive to price levels.• Top Largest Oil producer in the World. • Top Largest Natural Gas producer in the World.• Oil dynamics have Changed.

N T h l i i d l ti i P t h i l• New Technologies improve and revolutionizes Petrochemical production globally.

• Significant challenges expected. Although we expect lower oil i l b l i th i l i dprices, global economic growth is slowing down.

© 2015 IHS

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Presentation Name / Month 2015

The Impact of Energy At The Extremes…Conclusions

• Basic chemicals and derivatives markets adjust to “new energy”markets adjust to new energy

• Price setters have lower cost…prices decline seeking new steady statesteady state

• Integrated margins for low-cost producers decline, some high-cost producer margins improvecost producer margins improve

• Approved “advantaged” projects advance; new projects may pausepause

• Demand declines followed by demand surge; trade patterns shift; potential upcycle in

© 2015 IHS 47

shift; potential upcycle in ethylene and vinyl's

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© 2015 IHS, Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent.

Warren Buffett’sa e u ett s3 Principles for Investments:

•Cash•Emotions•Information© 2015 IHS

•Information

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IHS CHEMICALPresentation

InstitutoInstituto PetroquPetroquímicoímico ArgentinoArgentino

ih

InstitutoInstituto PetroquPetroquímicoímico ArgentinoArgentino-- An Overview of the An Overview of the Petrochemical Industry Petrochemical Industry --

ihs.com05 May 2015

GRACIASGRACIAS

Rina Quijada

© 2015 IHS

Rina QuijadaIHS Chemical Sr Director Latin America