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Institute of Urban and Regional Development (IURD)TRANSIT & CITIES CONFERENCE

UC BerkeleyMarch 20-21, 2014

Plenary Session 1: International Perspectives

SUBURBAN LAND USE AND TRANSIT IN MEXICO CITY

TRANSIT & CITIESPAST, PRESENT, FUTURE

(MARCH, 2014)

ERICK GUERRAASSISTANT PROFESSOR

UNIVERSITY OF PENNSYLVANIADEPARTMENT OF CITY AND REGIONAL PLANNING

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PRESENTATION OUTLINE

OVERVIEW AND TRENDSSuburbanization

Transit

POLICY INTERVENTIONSReorienting Growth

Urban DesignTransit Investments

Improving Informal Transit

MEXICO CITY METROPOLITAN AREA

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SUBURBANIZATION IN MEXICO CITY

RAPID SUBURBANIZATION

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Urban Center

First Ring

Second Ring

Third Ring

Fourth Ring

Source: Mexico Population Census, INEGI

Mexico City: Millions of People per Urban Ring (1950 to 2010)

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MOSTLY DENSE INFORMAL URBANIZATION

Livingston, NJNezahualcoyotl, Edo. Mex.

AVERAGE ANNUAL POPULATION GROWTH RATES (2000 – 2010)

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SHIFT IN SUBURBAN HOUSING PRODUCTION

View from Ecatepec Station, 15km northeast of downtown

Los Héroes de Ecatepec, 25km northeast of downtown

SUBURBAN COMMERCIAL HOUSING DEVELOPMENTS

Municipality of Ixtapaluca

• Fastest increase in gross neighborhood population density: 48 to 131 people per hectare (1990 to 2005)

• Average annual population growth rate of 12% (1990 to 2010)

• Approved eight commercial housing developments, containing 68,625 units (1992 and 2002)

• That is three-quarters of all new housing units between1990 and 2010, and twice the number between 1990 and 2000

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04/21/2003

SUBURBAN COMMERCIAL HOUSING DEVELOPMENTS

SUBURBAN COMMERCIAL HOUSING DEVELOPMENTS

12/03/2005

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SUBURBAN COMMERCIAL HOUSING DEVELOPMENTS

12/28/2008

TRANSIT AND THE SUBURBS

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VEHICULAR MODE SHARE

0.260.30

0.190.26

0.680.60

0.77

0.65

1994 2007 1994 2007

Proportion of trips by car Proportion of trips by transit

Federal District Outside of Federal District

METRO EXPANSION & RIDERSHIP

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

1,400

1,500

1,600

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Millions of Annual M

etro Boardings

Kilometers of Metro Right of Way

System length (km) Annual boardings (millions)

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GEOGRAPHY OF METRO SERVICE AND USE

METRO FEEDER SERVICE

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GEOGRAPHY OF COLECTIVO USE

IMPROVING THE SUBURBAN LAND USE AND TRANSIT CONNECTION

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MOTIVATION: CONGESTION AND SUSTAINABILITY

Federal District Outside of Federal District

14 13.5

15.3

10.3

12.1

14.814

17.1

Average Car Speed Millions of weekdayVKT

Average Car Speed Millions of weekdayVKT

1994 2007

MOTIVATION: EQUITY AND THE ECONOMY

12

4.5

54

9 7.9

65

Average Monthly income(thousands of pesos)

Average expenditures pertransit trip

Average travel time by transit

Federal District Outside Federal District

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MOTIVATION: EQUITY AND THE ECONOMY

5.0

57

8.5

79

Average expenditures per transit trip Average travel time by transit

Federal District Outside Federal District

Work commutes only

1) REORIENTING SUBURBAN GROWTH

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URBAN FORM AND VKT GENERATION

Proportion of Households that Drive Average Household Income

URBAN FORM AND VKT GENERATION

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URBAN FORM AND VKT GENERATION

‐0.35

‐0.30

‐0.25

‐0.20

‐0.15

‐0.10

‐0.05

0.00

0.05

0.10

Population density

Jobs per hectare

Within a kilometer of amajor highwayWithin a half kilometerof transitIntersections perhectare

VKT Elasticity Estimations

CHALLENGES

VKT Elasticity Estimations

‐0.30

‐0.20

‐0.10

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

Kilometers todowntown

Car accessibility

Destination diversity

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CHALLENGES

Growth has slowed Projected to increase from 20 million to 21 million by

2025

Land prices much higher in central locations

2) IMPROVING URBAN DESIGN

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CAR USE IN NEW SUBURBAN DEVELOPMENTS

Municipality of Ixtapaluca

CAR USE IN NEW SUBURBAN DEVELOPMENTS

Traditional Development

Commercial Housing

Mean Mean

Cars per household 0.39 0.61

Average daily VKT 6.0 15.6

Monthly income (in pesos) $7,431 $8,678People per hectare in Census Tract 107 204

Households in Ixtapaluca and Tecamac

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RETROFITTING NEW SUBURBAN DEVELOPMENTS

Average household in commercial development has 64% higher odds of owning a car after controlling for income and other household attributes

LIMITED ROAD NETWORKS

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POOR TRANSIT CONNECTIONS

WIDER STREETS AND UBIQUITOUS PARKING

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3) EXPANDING HIGH CAPACITY TRANSITINTO THE SUBURBS

LINE B INVESTMENT

Two phases in 1999 and 2000

24 Kilometers (15 miles)

Into neighborhood with 85 people per gross acre

$1.3 billion USD

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LINE B INVESTMENT

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

Millions of Annual M

etro Boardings

Without Line B

Network

BEFORE AND AFTER LAND USE AND TRAVEL BEHAVIOR MEASURES AT SIX GEOGRAPHIC SCALES

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SUMMARY OF FINDINGS

• Primary influence of Line B has been localized around stations with some spillover in Ecatepec

• Faster, less expensive public transit (2 pesos and 1.5 minutes saved per trip) compared to 1 peso and 3 minute increase in the rest of the state

• Increased mode share coming from Colectivos. Limited to no impact on car travel or road speeds.

• Localized increase in residential density.

HOUSEHOLD LOCATION OF LINE B USERS

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NON-HOME DESTINATIONS OF LINE B USERS

4) IMPROVING EXISTING SUBURBAN TRANSIT

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INCREASE IN SUBURB-TO-SUBURB TRAVEL

Geography of trip patterns

0.55

0.220.20

0.03

0.47

0.30

0.19

0.03

Federal to Federal State to State State to Federal Federal to State

1994 2007

PERCENT OF DAILY TRIPS TO THE URBAN CENTER

Millions 

of trips Percent

Millions 

of trips Percent

1994 5.3 25.7% 2.0 40.1%

2007 4.3 19.6% 2.0 32.8%

All trips Journey‐to‐work trips

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GEOGRAPHY OF RECENT JOB GROWTH

EMBRACING INFORMAL TRANSIT

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THANK YOUerickg@design.upenn.edu

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTSCTS EMBARQRobert Cervero

Betty DeakinJoan Walker

Dan ChatmanRebecca Sanders

Allie ThomasJake Wegmann

FUNDINGUniversity of California Transportation Center Dissertation Grant

Dean’s Normative Time Fellowship from the University of California BerkeleyUniversity of Pennsylvania Vice Provost University Research Fund

VISUALIZATION OF TRAVEL BY ECATEPEC RESIDENTS

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BUS RAPID TRANSIT

BUS RAPID TRANSIT

Length (km)

Daily passengers

Passengers per km Opening

Metrobus 1 30 440,000 14,667 2005Metrobus 2 20 170,000 8,500 2009Metrobus 3 17 140,000 8,235 2011Metrobus 4 28 50,000 1,786 2012

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RECENT PROTESTS AGAINST FARE INCREASE

Source: http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/photo/2013-12/13/content_17173352.htm