8
© 2011 Emerging Markets Private Equity Association 1 North Africa defined as: Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, Sudan and Tunisia. Middle East defined as: Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, Pakistan, Palestinian Territories, Syria and Yemen. In recent years, private equity investors have been drawn to North Africa’s range of promising fundamentals. A young and capable work force, a wealth of natural resources, increased opportunities for infrastructure investment and a growing pool of sophisticated fund managers operating in the region are among the many factors contributing to its attractiveness. However, despite its potential, the region’s private equity climate has been hard hit by the financial crisis—fundraising has come to halt, while investment in the broader Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region dropped by more than 75% between 2008 and 2010. Fur- ther, the unrest of early 2011 may prolong the region’s exit from a more generalized private equity slowdown. As Tunisia and Egypt sort through the post-revolution tran- sition, and while Libya remains in the violent throes of its own transformation, the immediate economic impact on investee operations—budgets, inflation, currencies and export channels—is apparent. However, EMPEA’s members have stated cautious optimism for the asset class in the mid-term, once the revolutionary dust of early 2011 settles. While it is too soon to speculate about the potential long- term consequences of the events unfolding across North Africa, EMPEA’s members are expressing confidence that this chain of events will result in more stable, faster-grow- ing economies that will present private equity players with compelling investment opportunities and more investor- friendly domestic regimes. This report includes analysis and commentary from EMPEA members Abraaj Capital, Citadel Capital, TunInvest-AfricIn- vest Group and Swicorp on the potential impact of recent events on North Africa’s private equity environment based on an EMPEA Webcast which took place on 22 February on pages 2–3. EMPEA member TunInvest-AfricInvest Group shines the spotlight on Tunisia and discusses the outlook for the country from both a short- and long-term perspective on pages 4–5. Finally, a private equity data snapshot of the Middle East and North Africa, drawing heaving on EMPEA’s proprietary industry database, can be found on pages 6–7. Insight North Africa An Overview of Private Equity Trends in Select Sectors and Markets April 2011 Middle East and North Africa Fundraising Totals, 2006–2010 (US$B) Middle East and North Africa Investment Totals, 2006–2010 (US$B) Source: EMPEA. Source: EMPEA. Note: EMPEA segregated reporting of Middle East and North Africa invest- ments beginning in 2008. Pan-MENA Pan-MENA Middle East Middle East North Africa North Africa 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 US$ Billions US$ Billions 2006 3.2 2006 1.8 2007 5.3 2007 3.5 2008 6.9 2008 3.4 2009 1.1 2009 2.2 2010 0.4 2010 0.8 1.0 2.4 0.8 0.8 1.4 0.8 2.3 3.4 1.6 4.3 1.6 1.0 0.9

Insight North Africa - EMPEA · Egypt: The Regional Heavyweight Egypt, which boasts both the largest GDP and population in North Africa, was the subject of much of the discussion

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Page 1: Insight North Africa - EMPEA · Egypt: The Regional Heavyweight Egypt, which boasts both the largest GDP and population in North Africa, was the subject of much of the discussion

© 2011 Emerging Markets Private Equity Association 1

North Africa defined as: Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, Sudan and Tunisia. Middle East defined as: Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, Pakistan, Palestinian Territories, Syria and Yemen.

In recent years, private equity investors have been drawn to North Africa’s range of promising fundamentals. A young and capable work force, a wealth of natural resources, increased opportunities for infrastructure investment and a growing pool of sophisticated fund managers operating in the region are among the many factors contributing to its attractiveness. However, despite its potential, the region’s private equity climate has been hard hit by the financial crisis—fundraising has come to halt, while investment in the broader Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region dropped by more than 75% between 2008 and 2010. Fur-ther, the unrest of early 2011 may prolong the region’s exit from a more generalized private equity slowdown.

As Tunisia and Egypt sort through the post-revolution tran-sition, and while Libya remains in the violent throes of its own transformation, the immediate economic impact on investee operations—budgets, inflation, currencies and export channels—is apparent. However, EMPEA’s members have stated cautious optimism for the asset class in the mid-term, once the revolutionary dust of early 2011 settles. While it is too soon to speculate about the potential long-term consequences of the events unfolding across North Africa, EMPEA’s members are expressing confidence that this chain of events will result in more stable, faster-grow-ing economies that will present private equity players with compelling investment opportunities and more investor-friendly domestic regimes.

This report includes analysis and commentary from EMPEA members Abraaj Capital, Citadel Capital, TunInvest-AfricIn-vest Group and Swicorp on the potential impact of recent events on North Africa’s private equity environment based on an EMPEA Webcast which took place on 22 February on pages 2–3. EMPEA member TunInvest-AfricInvest Group shines the spotlight on Tunisia and discusses the outlook for the country from both a short- and long-term perspective on pages 4–5. Finally, a private equity data snapshot of the Middle East and North Africa, drawing heaving on EMPEA’s proprietary industry database, can be found on pages 6–7.

Insight North AfricaAn Overview of Private Equity Trends in Select Sectors and Markets April 2011

Middle East and North Africa Fundraising Totals, 2006–2010 (US$B)

Middle East and North Africa Investment Totals, 2006–2010 (US$B)

Source: EMPEA.

Source: EMPEA.Note: EMPEA segregated reporting of Middle East and North Africa invest-ments beginning in 2008.

Pan-MENA

Pan-MENA

Middle East

Middle East

North Africa

North Africa

8.0

7.0

6.0

5.0

4.0

3.0

2.0

1.0

0.0

4.0

3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

US$

Bill

ions

US$

Bill

ions

2006

3.2

2006

1.8

2007

5.3

2007

3.5

2008

6.9

2008

3.4

2009

1.1

2009

2.2

2010

0.4

2010

0.8

1.0

2.4

0.8 0.8

1.4

0.8

2.3 3.4

1.6

4.3

1.6

1.0

0.9

Page 2: Insight North Africa - EMPEA · Egypt: The Regional Heavyweight Egypt, which boasts both the largest GDP and population in North Africa, was the subject of much of the discussion

© 2011 Emerging Markets Private Equity Association 2

EMPEA Insight: North Africa April 2011

Private Equity in North Africa: What Every LP Must KnowSummary of an EMPEA Webcast

The revolutionary developments that began in Tunisia and quickly reverberated across North Africa and the Mid-dle East have forced private equity participants to pause and reassess their investment approach to the region. On 22 February 2011, EMPEA hosted a webcast with several of the region’s leading private equity fund managers to dis-cuss how risk is being redefined in North Africa as a result of these extraordinary events, and to explore the short-, medium- and long-term impact of the changes underway. Participating in the discussion were Ahmed Badreldin, Senior Partner of Abraaj Capital; Hisham El-Khazindar, Managing Director and Co-Founder of Citadel Capital; Aziz Mebarek, Founding Partner of TunInvest-AfricInvest Group; and Nabil Triki, Managing Director and Head of Private Equity of Swicorp.

Despite recent developments, the panelists agreed that North Africa’s fundamentals remain solid. In addition to having witnessed strong economic growth over the last five years, the region is home to some of the world’s most favor-able demographics with a young population and growing, consumer-oriented middle class. Adding to North Africa’s investment attractiveness, the prospects for regional inte-gration are improving. Swicorp’s Nabil Triki noted that LPs have questioned for years whether North Africa could truly be thought of as a region due to drastic cultural differences across its varied economies. However, Triki argued, “Events that took place in a small city in Tunisia have affected the rest of the country, which in turn have had an impact on Egypt and Libya and the momentum continues to spread to Algeria and Morocco. The last few months are testament to the fact that, at last, a region is emerging.”

Egypt: The Regional Heavyweight

Egypt, which boasts both the largest GDP and population in North Africa, was the subject of much of the discussion. On the heels of the Tunisian revolution, protests began in Egypt on 25 January, and rapidly grew into a large-scale insurgency with participation from all segments of society. This momentum ultimately culminated in the resignation of President Muhammad Hosni Mubarak on 11 February, with the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces taking over on an interim basis.

According to Citadel’s Hisham El-Khazindar, “The revolution unleashed tremendous energies within Egypt and brought back a sense of nationalism and identity. Today, there is

positive confidence in the future, which is extremely valu-able and will serve the country going forward.” However, he added that people are now beginning to wake up to the short-term challenges facing the country. While most businesses have resumed their activities, many are operat-ing at low capacity and are increasingly concerned about budget deficits, inflation and currency stability. The impact that recent events will have on Egypt’s tourism sector is also weighing heavily on the minds of local investors.

Ahmed Badreldin summed up Abraaj Capital’s perspective on Egypt as being cautiously optimistic, with a stress on caution. He noted that political risk had been in the back of investors’ minds even prior to the revolution, as Egypt’s September 2011 elections loomed in the not too distant future. “This uncertainty has simply been brought forward, and once resolved, everyone will be back to business.” Not anticipating large-scale instability, Badreldin added, “It is highly unlikely that there will be a material negative change to the underlying political environment in Egypt. From a reform perspective, things may be slightly better or perhaps a bit slower, but the process of reform that was started 7–8 years ago will likely continue to a large extent.”

Tunisia: Home of the Facebook Revolution

Tunisians, driven by a desire for greater economic oppor-tunities, inspired the world when their protests led to the departure of President Zine El Albidine Ben Ali on 13 Janu-ary. Prior to the revolution, Tunisia had been suffering from a slowdown in investment and economic growth, and corrup-tion had reportedly become so rampant within the Tunisian government that the negative impact on local companies was visible. Following the departure of Ben Ali, an interim government and election commission have been put in place to prepare for democratic elections later in the year.

TunInvest-AfricInvest’s Aziz Mebarek believes that the changes taking place in Tunisia are putting the country on

Tahrir Square, Cairo, Egypt — 25 February 2011.

Page 3: Insight North Africa - EMPEA · Egypt: The Regional Heavyweight Egypt, which boasts both the largest GDP and population in North Africa, was the subject of much of the discussion

© 2011 Emerging Markets Private Equity Association 3

April 2011 EMPEA Insight: North Africa

track for greater future prosperity. In addition to seeing growing opportunities for export-oriented Tunisian firms, Mebarek noted that the enormous amount of resources currently being devoted to attracting FDI for infrastructure (being referred to in Tunisia as the “Marshall Plan”) will create opportunities for SMEs to grow. “We are trying our utmost to put Tunisia back on the radar screen of those investors who have forgotten about it over the last 4 years, to signal to them the opportunities achievable over the next 4 years.”

Algeria, Morocco & Libya: The Butterfly Effect

Algeria and Morocco, together accounting for nearly 40% of North Africa’s combined GDP, are feeling the pressure from the events in Egypt and Tunisia. Governments of both countries are rumored to be actively reviewing measures to meet their citizens’ basic needs in order to avert poten-tial unrest. On the other end of the spectrum, violence continues to reign in oil-producing Libya. North Africa’s richest country, Libya is a potentially important investment destination, either through direct investments or portfo-lio company transactions. Several predicted that Colonel Muammar Qaddafi’s regime would not last, and that an ultimately more open Libya likely to emerge would paint a better picture for global investors looking at North Africa as a whole.

The panelists viewed the events taking hold across the region from a multitude of angles. TunInvest-AfricInvest’s Mebarek commented, “North African citizens are not only trying to regain their freedom, but also build a model for the middle class to grow faster.” Looking at developments from a political perspective, Citadel’s El-Khazindar stated, “What we have seen take place in the region over the past few months is part of a broader trend of change—change led by young people that is fundamentally about democ-racy and reform. This is about youth demanding a voice in running their countries, which is very positive.”

Mining the Investment Climate

The panelists addressed the topic of whether the current environment would provide GPs with opportunities to capitalize on local companies at favorable valuations, or if the challenges remained too formidable to focus on new transactions. As the situation remains fluid, most stressed an intention to be cautious in the short term. Citadel’s El-Khazindar noted that his firm would be focusing on its existing portfolio companies over the next 6–12 months to ensure that they are mitigating the risks associated with the slowdown, including inflation and foreign exchange.

Abraaj’s Badreldin noted that his firm had recently put an investment in their pipeline on hold and also reiterated a focus on new risks. In particular, inflation is on his list of top concerns. “While we always factor inflation into an analysis,

it normally comes in line with accelerated economic growth. However, in the post-revolution world, we are looking at significantly lower GDP growth rates.” Badreldin also noted that labor strikes are a new phenomenon in the region that must be factored into scenario planning and risk manage-ment. “There is a risk that labor’s demands may become the new norm. While some of their concerns are absolutely fair, they also have some completely unrealistic expecta-tions, which can only harm the economy if implemented in a quick manner.” Triki also stated that Swicorp’s focus in the short term will be supporting existing portfolio companies and helping them seize on available opportunities. However, they are also evaluating new investments. He noted, “When you look at Tunisia or Egypt, there are a number of great, very prof-itable companies that pre-revolution were not interested in speaking with us as they were able to able to finance their capital needs internally. But with the challenging months ahead, many are now much more open to having a private equity partner that can not only provide cash but also support the company from a strategic operational and governance standpoint.” He also pointed to the fact that certain sectors in countries like Tunisia had been closed to all but those families with ties to political power. Those sec-tors are expected to open up in the medium to long term, creating significant investment opportunities.

TunInvest-AfricInvest has already placed its bet on the positive impact of recent developments on North Africa’s investment climate, having executed three transactions in the region in February. Mebarek remarked, “We believe that current market conditions are even better than they were before.” Similar to the other panelists, TunInvest-AfricInvest is also focusing on their portfolio and actively engaging with unions. He noted, “In companies where unions do not exist, we have been working to create rep-resentative bodies in order to channel demands. We are still going through this process, but every day the situation is getting better.”

Conclusion

The webcast participants were unanimous in their belief that the situation on the ground remains fluid—and there-fore investors in North Africa should proceed with eyes wide open over the next several months. Political and economic uncertainty will persist throughout the region as the pace of change will vary on a country-by-country basis. However, these GPs were optimistic that today’s changes will lay the foundation for a brighter future by ushering in an era of less corruption and greater transparency. As Citadel’s El-Khazindar declared, “While the winds of change that we are seeing blown across the overall region today will undoubt-edly create uncertainties in the short term, the long-term impact will be positive.”

Page 4: Insight North Africa - EMPEA · Egypt: The Regional Heavyweight Egypt, which boasts both the largest GDP and population in North Africa, was the subject of much of the discussion

© 2011 Emerging Markets Private Equity Association 4

EMPEA Insight: North Africa April 2011

Spotlight: Impact Assessment of the Recent Events in TunisiaThis summary was prepared by EMPEA member TunInvest-AfricInvest Group based on official news, contacts with business community leaders, the firm’s own understanding of the situation on the ground, as well as verified infor-mation received from the 22 Tunisian investee companies in the current global investment portfolio of TunInvest-AfricInvest’s funds (as well as a number of former investee companies). Whether directly or through their affiliates or branches, these companies represent a very wide spectrum of economic sectors, and cover the whole Tunisian territory.

Overview

The extraordinary events in Tunisia were sparked by a spon-taneous youth movement protesting unemployment, social inequities and corruption. Having started in the central west of Tunisia, this protest movement soon spread to other cit-ies, and gained such force that all appeasement attempts by the Government (such as the firing of the Interior Min-ister, promises of economic reform and job creation, etc.) failed to placate the people’s anger.

The intensity of the calls for the ouster of President Ben Ali finally led to his surprising and hasty flight from the country on Friday 14 January. This departure left a power vacuum that resulted in feelings of fear and helpless-ness among the population during the weekend of 15–16 January 2011, when dangerous armed gangs were tak-ing advantage of the situation to spread terror among the population. This led to more business closures due to security concerns, causing shortages in food sup-plies. The initial state of panic was quickly replaced with measured optimism, as security steadily improved. The security forces gained control of the situation in all cities after arresting large numbers of gang members, and local neighborhoods organized the defense of their homes in a spontaneous demonstration of solidarity.

In the aftermath of these events, Tunisia’s investment environment has been steadily improving. Schools and uni-versities have re-opened, and normalcy has been restored to daily life a couple of weeks later. Security has improved dra-matically, public transportation is running again, all shops (and not just those of vital necessity) have re-opened, all civil and public construction works have resumed their nor-mal activities, and more generally the economic activity has gradually returned to pre-crisis levels even though pacific demonstrations are still frequent, with people exercising their newly-found freedom to make all kinds of political and economic demands.

The Short-term Economic Impact

Risks Faced by Tunisian CompaniesTunisian companies were exposed to a number of risks related to the recent turmoil in Tunisia:

Losses due to work stoppagesVirtually all of Tunisia’s businesses are now operating. Many of these companies adapted their working hours dur-ing the month-long curfew, initially from 5pm to 7am and then significantly reduced when security was restored and fully lifted on 15 February. Other firms, such as chemical and dairy companies, ran on a 24-hour basis by providing sleeping arrangements within the company for their night teams. Tunisians adapted well to the curfew, which was in practice quite similar to the “unique working sessions” practiced during Ramadan or the summertime.

Losses from looting and vandalismWith respect to looting and vandalism, all of TunInvest-AfricIn-vest’s investee companies reported that their own employees played a major role in protecting their assets, with many work-ers spending weekends inside company facilities to ensure security. This impressive expression of social solidarity can be generalized to many other companies outside the portfolio. It is difficult to estimate the losses from looting and vandalism today, but those costs are likely to be significant.

It is important to note, however, that the majority of eco-nomic sectors were not directly touched by looting and vandalism, which was mainly targeted at police stations, supermarket chains with connections to the ruling family, distributors of electronic equipment, and some public and private banking branches. Only one TunInvest-AfricInvest portfolio company out of 22 was impacted: a distributor of computer equipment experienced significant looting at two of its 12 outlets, despite the presence of employees who remained on site in an attempt to secure the property.

Disruptions in the supply chainDespite serious disruptions in trade flows in the first two days of the crisis, the situation has been gradually improv-ing. Imports of raw materials are making their way to Tunisian companies. Exporting companies were successful in sending their first containers. Nevertheless, some delays along the supply chain are being observed. International trade is approaching normal pre-crisis levels, although the unfolding situation in neighboring Libya has impacted this recovery. After a few weeks of total closure, the Libyan market reopened again for Tunisian exporters, especially for basic agribusiness and FMCG products. The trade level with Libya is still below its normal flow even though a slight improvement was observed by mid-April.

Political exposureIt is a well known fact that during the 23-year reign of Ben Ali, his family acquired excessive wealth and came to own

Page 5: Insight North Africa - EMPEA · Egypt: The Regional Heavyweight Egypt, which boasts both the largest GDP and population in North Africa, was the subject of much of the discussion

© 2011 Emerging Markets Private Equity Association 5

April 2011 EMPEA Insight: North Africa

major stakes in many of Tunisia’s most prominent compa-nies. These companies could face serious problems down the road, in particular relating to corporate governance, as well as uncertain treatment of family assets by the new regime and the possibility of reprisals.

Exposed Sectors to Monitor

TourismThe tourism sector accounts for up to 12% of foreign cur-rency inflows in Tunisia. Fortunately, the protests took place during the low season, which means that a quick resolu-tion of the crisis should minimize the negative impact. The nomination of Mr. Mehdi Houas as Minister of Tourism in the transition coalition government has been viewed pos-itively by local tourism experts, who are confident about the future of this sector. However, the 2011 tourist season is expected to be weak especially given the timing of the forthcoming elections planned for 24 July 2011.

Financial sectorAs a result of the ouster of the ex-President and the ensuing disgrace of his family, we expect to see an important rise in NPLs of Tunisian banks, as many members of the Ben Ali and the Trabelsi clan had contracted sizable bank debts. The extent of compromised banking assets likely affected is dif-ficult to estimate, as is the capacity of the Tunisian financial system to withstand such an impact.

On a positive note, the country’s debt is at a reasonable level (only 34% of GDP), leaving room for more leverage. However, deterioration of the country’s credit rating result-ing from the crisis will result in higher borrowing costs, and may also make it more difficult for Tunisia to raise funds on the international markets. Nevertheless, we believe that Tunisia stands to benefit from strong goodwill from inter-national institutions, and should be able to raise any needed capital. All the financial sector specialists that we have con-sulted (e.g., Citibank Tunisia) have been positive about the viability and prospects of Tunisia’s financial system. Two additional developments welcomed by the financial com-munity and worth noting include:

• The interim government’s designation of a new Central Bank governor, Mr. Mustapha Kamel Nabli—a prominent and highly respected economic and financial figure in Tunisia, as well as a former senior staff member at the World Bank; and,

• Measures taken to ensure availability of adequate financing to meet the needs of businesses over the next few months.

The Long-term ImpactDespite the negative impact expected on Tunisia’s economy and businesses in the short-run, we expect mostly positive outcomes in the medium- to long-run, as a result of the fol-lowing expected improvements:

• Greater levels of transparency within the government;

• Elimination of the unfair advantages and privileges pre-viously awarded to the Ben Ali clan, and of the sorts

of extortive practices that Tunisian businessmen and entrepreneurs were previously subjected to; and,

• Expected improvement in civil liberties and human rights.

As a result of these changes, we can expect the following economic gains to be made by Tunisia:

• A significant decrease in the flight of capital;

• Reduced flight of human capital, and even the return to the country of Tunisians living abroad (in response to feel-ings of increased patriotism);

• Greater transparency and enhanced competition for Tunisian goods and services following the elimination of artificial market distortions and unfair practices;

• Increased routing of a significant portion of private sav-ings to private investments;

• FDI from both multilateral development agencies and pri-vate investors is expected to increase; and,

• The enhanced possibility of attaining preferred trading partner status with the EU.

Conclusion

A slowdown in economic activity and higher unem-ployment is expected in the short run. The GDP growth forecast should not exceed 1% in 2011 mainly due to the low expected tourism revenues and the impact of the Lib-yan crisis on exports. However, as long as the transition to normalcy continues at a rapid pace, we do not expect the negative impact to go beyond 2011.

We are hopeful that this transition period will be relatively painless. Tunisia has demonstrated its resiliency and its capacity to overcome similar crises in the past. The solidarity and maturity demonstrated by the Tunisian people over the last few months, and their traditions as peace-loving and orderly citizens make us hopeful for the country’s future.

Over the medium term, Tunisia is expected to reap the benefits of greater transparency and a cleaner business environment. If Tunisia managed to achieve impressive economic growth of roughly 5% per annum over the past decade, despite the irregularities of the previous regime, a gain of an additional 1 or 2 percentage points of economic growth is certainly within reason.

Founded in 1994, the TunInvest-AfricInvest Group is one of the leading private equity firms in North and Sub-Saharan Africa with over US$550 million of assets under manage-ment across 10 private equity funds sponsored by DFIs, as well as private and institutional investors.

Page 6: Insight North Africa - EMPEA · Egypt: The Regional Heavyweight Egypt, which boasts both the largest GDP and population in North Africa, was the subject of much of the discussion

© 2011 Emerging Markets Private Equity Association 6

EMPEA Insight: North Africa April 2011

About EMPEAThe Emerging Markets Private Equity Association is a non-profit, independent, global industry association that promotes greater understanding of and a more favorable climate for private equity and venture capital investing in the emerging markets of Africa, Asia, Europe, Latin America and the Middle East. For more information, visit us on the web at empea.net.

Data and analysis presented in the EMPEA Insight series is derived from EMPEA’s proprietary industry database, FundLink, made possible with generous support from the following institutions: CDC, DBSA, DEG and FMO.

North Africa Private Equity Deal Value & Volume by Year, 2008–2010

Factors Likely to Deter LPs From Beginning to Invest in MENA Over the Next 2 Years

Total Capital Invested (US$B) (LHS)

Number of Deals (RHS)

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

25

20

15

10

5

02008 2009 2010

Tota

l Cap

ital

Inve

sted

(U

S$B)

No. of D

eals

2.4

1.419

13

4

MENA Investment by Country, 2009–2010 (No. Deals, US$m)

Source: EMPEA; n=57.Note: “Other” inclusive of Lebanon, Sudan, Algeria, Jordan, Oman, Pakistan and Tunisia.

Source: IMF; as of April 2011.Note: All data projected.

35+21+11+7+5+5+16 UAE Egypt

(20, US$864m)

(12, US$1.3B)

(9, US$491m)

(3, US$64m)

(3, US$26m)

(4, US$45m)

(6, US$222m)

MENA Investments by Sector, 2009–2010 (No. Deals, US$m)

Select Macroeconomic Indicators in North Africa

Source: EMPEA; n=57.Note: “Other” inclusive of Healthcare & Life Sciences, Agribusiness, Services and Consumer.

19+18+18+10+10+10+15 Industrials & Manufacturing Technology

Energy & Natural Resources Banking & Financial Services

Media & Telecom Infrastructure Other

(11, US$73m)

(10, US$20m)

(8, US$230m)

(6, US$352m)

(6, N/A)

(6, US$789m) (10, US$1.5B)

2010 Real GDP % Growth

2011 Real GDP % Growth

2011 Nominal

GDP (US$B)

2011 Population (millions)

Algeria 3.3 3.6 192.4 36.7

Egypt 5.1 1.0 231.1 79.9

Libya 4.2 N/A N/A N/A

Morocco 3.2 3.9 100.3 32.2

Sudan 5.1 4.7 75.1 41.2

Tunisia 3.7 1.3 46.6 10.7

Source: 2011 EMPEA/Coller Capital EM PE Survey of Investors.Note: Survey reflects responses collected between December 2010 and January 2011.

% Respondents

Limited number of established GPs 39

Scale of opportunity to invest is too small 33

Political risk 32

Weak exit environments 14

Challenging regulatory/tax issues 12

Entry valuations are too high 2

Data Snapshot The following pages provide a snapshot of private equity trends across North Africa and the broader MENA region, drawing on EMPEA’s proprietary industry database as well as EMPEA’s annual Emerging Markets Private Equity Survey of Investors.

North Africa

Middle East and North Africa

Saudi Arabia Kuwait

Bahrain Morocco

Other

Page 7: Insight North Africa - EMPEA · Egypt: The Regional Heavyweight Egypt, which boasts both the largest GDP and population in North Africa, was the subject of much of the discussion

© 2011 Emerging Markets Private Equity Association 7

April 2011 EMPEA Insight: North Africa

Sampling of Recent Investments in the Middle East and North Africa

Sampling of Firms Investing in the Middle East and North Africa

Fund Manager Company Name Country SectorInvestment Type

Trans. Date

Trans. Value (US$m)

Equity Stake (%)

Standard Chartered Private Equity Ltd (SCPEL)

Hassan Mohammad Jawad & Sons Bahrain Consumer Growth/

Expansion Jan-11 75 N/A

Abraaj Capital OMS Egypt Technology Venture Capital Nov-10 N/A N/A

Actis Mediterranean Smart Cards Company (MSCC) Egypt Banking & Financial

Services Buyout Jul-10 N/A 100

Capital Trust SA Wadi Holdings Egypt Agribusiness Growth/Expansion Apr-10 6 N/A

Citadel Capital SAETanash / Southern Cairo / Alexandria Ports*

Egypt Ports, Waterways, Shipping

Growth/Expansion Mar-10 183 N/A

Gulf Capital TechnoScan Egypt Healthcare & Life Sciences Buyout Feb-10 N/A 75

Sawari Ventures Alzwad Mobile Services Egypt Media & Telecom Venture Capital Jan-11 N/A N/A

Capital Advisors Partners Asia Sdn Bhd (CapAsia)

Wind Farm Projects in Sindh, Pakistan* Pakistan Energy & Natural

ResourcesGrowth/Expansion Mar-11 20.5 N/A

NBK Capital Newton Schools Qatar Education Services & Training Venture Capital Jan-11 N/A N/A

Citadel Capital SAE Sudan Power Project* Sudan Energy & Natural Resources

Growth/Expansion May-10 70 51

Middle East Venture Partners (MEVP) Droid Shield United Arab

Emirates Technology Venture Capital Feb-11 N/A N/A

Fund Manager Fund Name Fund Focus Geographic Detail Headquarters

Abraaj Capital The Infrastructure and Growth Capital Fund L.P. (2007, US$2B); Riyada Enterprise Development Fund (RED) (Raising, US$700m)

Hard & Soft Infrastructure; Generalist

MENASA UAE

Al Masah Capital Al Masah MENA Growth Fund (Raising, US$500m) Generalist MENA UAE

Beltone Private Equity Beltone MidCap Fund (Raising, US$100m) Generalist Egypt Egypt

Capital Trust SA EuroMena II (2009, US$150m) Generalist MENA UK

Citadel Capital SAE Africa Joint Investment Fund / MENA Joint Investment Fund (Raising, US$500m) Generalist MENA, Sub-Saharan

Africa Egypt

EFG-Hermes Private Equity Horus Private Equity Fund III (2007, US$580m); Technology Development Fund II (2008, US$38m)

Generalist; Technology MENA; Egypt Egypt

Emerging Capital Partners ECP MENA Growth Fund LLC (2007, US$150m) Generalist MENA USA

Foursan Group Foursan Capital Partners I (Raising, US$200m) Generalist Jordan, Levant, North Africa Jordan

Global Capital Management Global MENA Financial Assets Ltd. (2008, US$500m) Financial Services

MENA, Turkey, South Asia Kuwait

GrowthGate Capital Corporation GrowthGate Capital Corporation (2006, US$500m) Generalist MENA UAE

Gulf Capital GC Equity Partners Fund II (2008, US$545m) Generalist MENA UAE

Kuwait Project Company (KIPCO) KIPCO Opportunity Fund (Raising, US$1B) Generalist MENA Kuwait

Middle East Venture Partners (MEVP) Middle East Venture Partners Fund L.P (Raising, US$20m) Generalist Lebanon, MENA Lebanon/UAE

NBK Capital NBK Capital-GSC Group Mezzanine Fund I (2008, US$156m) Generalist MENA Kuwait

Sawari Ventures Sawari Ventures Fund (Raising, US$100m) Generalist MENA Egypt

SHUAA Partners Ltd. SHUAA Hospitality Fund I (2008, US$200m) Hospitality MENA UAE

Swicorp Intaj Capital II (Raising, US$400m) Generalist MENA Tunisia

The Carlyle Group Carlyle MENA Partners (2007, US$500m) Generalist MENA USA

Tuninvest-Africinvest Group Maghreb Private Equity Fund II (2006, US$280m) Generalist North Africa Tunisia

TVM Capital TVM Capital MENA (Raising, US$100m) Healthcare & Life Sciences MENA Germany

Source: EMPEA.* Project finance excluded from EMPEA investment statistics.

Source: EMPEA.

Page 8: Insight North Africa - EMPEA · Egypt: The Regional Heavyweight Egypt, which boasts both the largest GDP and population in North Africa, was the subject of much of the discussion