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INSIGHT THE JOURNAL OF THE TITAN SOCIETY
(Issue #8, Oct.-Nov. 1986)
CONTENTS
2 Contents, by Ronald K. Hoeflin
Trip Report, by Chris Cole
Testing High Intelligence, by Eric Hart 3 Solutions to Two Logic Problems, by Chris Cole • • • 5 Questionnaire Responses, compiled by Ronald K. Hoeflin • 6
Chris Cole 6 Eric Hart 6 William Hacker 7 Dean Inada 8 Ray Wise 8
Calculating Full-range Correlations for the Mega Test, by Grady M. Towers 9
Fsychometric Data for the Mega Test, compiled by Ronald K. Hoeflin 14
Highest 100 Scores 14 Lowest 100 Scores 16 Sampling of Intermediate Scores 18
EDITORIAL
Ronald K. Hoeflin E. O. Box 7430 New York, NY 10116
This issue contains responses to the questionnaire in the
previous issue of Insight from five of our members, plus a new
questionnaire. Additional responses to the previous question-
naire are still welcome.
Chris Cole is going ahead with plans for a first annual
meeting of the Society in Southern California in 1987. If you
have any suggestions to make regarding the date, contact him.
Richard May (463 Beacon Street, Boston, MA 02115) has quali-
fied for membership and is our thirteenth member.
Grady V. Towers, whose letter issue, has agreed to do a computer data concerning the Mega Test that He may seek to have the results of professional journal.
- 1 -
to Richard May appears in this analysis of the psychometric I have supplied in this issue. his analysis published in a
TRIP REPORT
Chris Cole 2240-314 Park Newport Drive
Newport Beach, CA 92660
High IQ societies usually attract oddballs and cranks, so I have never joined one. However, the Mega Test was so difficult that I figured it would weed out these people, since they wouldn't have the patience to work out the answers. This is also why they never make important contributions. However, all of this was pretty such conjecture on my part, so it was with some trepidation that I set out to meet some fellow members of the Society. I figured I would either meet the creme de is crank, or a bunch of people more or less like myself.
During September I met with four fellow members of the Society: Jeff Ward and Dean Inada in Southern California and Ron Hoeflin and Ray Wise in New York. To my great relief, I found that they were not cranks. Not one crank idea was proposed during any of the several hours of discussions. The ideas that were discussed were fairly examined from all sides and people were willing to change their opinion when presented with sufficiently strong evidence. It was very comforting.
We discussed the solutions to Trial Test A and formulated a consolidated solution set (we could not solve problems 33 through 35 -- these are still unsolved as of this writing). We agreed that it is important to expand the Society, and that tests such as the Mega Test are the appropriate vehicle to do so. We had several suggestions on how to minimize cheating on the tests:
I. Don't publish the test. 2. Have the person requesting the test sign a contract stating that he or she will not reveal the contents of the test. 3. Change the test every year. 4. Specify that admission to the Society will require an interview that will involve some follow-up questions, even though this may not be true. 5. Tell the person before he or she requests the test that the test will require a considerable amount of time, and then be strict in requiring that the test be returned within the time limit (say, three months).
We also discussed several projects for the Society Jeff suggested a forum (television show? magazine?) for critical, objective assessment of arguments on both sides of issues of public interest. I suggested a long term project in the area of cellular automata and artificial intelligence. We all agreed that there would be no shortage of ideas on projects, nor any shortage of energy and talent to apply to the projects. All in all, they were two very enjoyable meetings and I look forward to more.
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TESTING HIGH INTELLIGENCE
Eric Bart P. 0. Box 831
Miller Pl., NY 11764
Readers of the newsletter are aware that the untimed, unsupervised testing strategy, uhich underlies the primary admission criterion for this society, is frequently a target for vague criticism. A good deal of this centers on the potential for collaboration; unfortunately, there is no infallible method by which every such lapse can be identified. Some criticism, however, casts doubt on the validity of the strategy irrespective of subterfuge. It is argued indirectly that the problems*on such tests are not reliable indicators of intelligence, whereas those on the "established" (timed and supervised) tests are above reproach.
The young field of psychometrics does not provide the kind of solid guidelines implied by such criticism; intelligence is not yet so thoroughly understood as to make such judgments possible. In fact, it can be coherently maintained that timed, supervised tests, particularly those containing a preponderance of multiple-choice (aleatory and "reverse-soluble") problems, provide a rather artificial scenario in comparison to the less tightly-controlled variety. After all, the great thinkers of past and present acclaim attack "real" unsolved problems in more or less individual ways, in more or less familiar settings, on more or less protracted timescales, and with no explicit restrictions on reference aids.
The matter seems to boil down to whether "intelligence" is the ability to solve many less-difficult problems in a short time, or fewer more-difficult problems over a longer time. It is currently plausible neither to equate the two "abilities" nor to elevate the former above the latter, particularly when virtually all of the world's most pressing problems require deep as opposed to superficial (or reverse-reasoned) insight.., and when the actual points of distinction are defined poorly if at all.
This is why statistical methods are preferred by psychologists in the design and evaluation of intelligence tests. It is characteristic of statistics-intensive disciplines that the "traditional" means of acquiring data, inasmuch as they condition the data itself, come to be regarded as essential to the acceptability of future data, the interpretation of which is greatly facilitated by invariance of experimental parameters. In statistical psychometrics, this means that the "best" data is data gathered in "the usual way", under conditions of strict timing and supervision.
It does not follow, however, that established constraints on data acquisition are ideal, or even appropriate, for measurement of the variable in question (assuming, for the sake of argument, that something as ill-defined as intelligence qualifies as a measurable "variable" at all). Statistical induction is, in a way, a methodology of last resort; it can be used even in profound ignorance of the illative principles governing a context. It is thus well for statisticians to remind themselves occasionally that the proper aim of such a nomologically-blind approach is to abstract just these principles, which alone can endow their data with meaning. Low correlations between experiments among which parameters are varied do'not constitute prima facie indictments of the less-tried parametrizations, and critiques to this effect are naive at best.
All of this leads to a final objection which must be addressed: if "I.Q." is what is measured by timed, supervised tests, and given that the members of this class display good correlation over identical (or parallel) samples, then how can a test not (or only marginally) displaying such correlation measure First, I.Q., while being a function in which age is a parameter, is putatively age-invariant; age serves only to adjust the absolute score of a subject to account for what is finally an irrelevant detail. Thus, I.Q. is tacitly inter-preted as "absolute problem-solving ability". Any test which contains primarily "context-free" problems - i.e., the solutions of which are independent of special propaedeutics as opposed to "developmental universals" (an arbitrary distinction, the variance generated by which is in part alleviated by free access to reference aids) - measures problem-solving ability, and can in principle be adjusted for age to yield I.Q.. Any meaningful distinction between tests must therefore be made in terns of a comparison among context-free problems... which presupposes that the common elements of problemic structure have been isolated. As yet, they .have not.
Speculating now: were it to be determined that the "difficulty-curve" of problems in general (i.e., where we have n critical elements of problemic structure, the curve of a suitable n-ary function in "problemspace") displays "virtual discontinuities", then problems on the upside of the discontinuities would have great discriminative potential relative to those beneath. There now arises a possibility: that certain subjects able to solve problems below such "catastrophic" junctures with great facility may lack some function of the intellect by which the discontinuity can be bridged. At this point, I.Q. takes on a whole new meaning, having one or more definite "make-or-break" dimensions.
This, as I understand it, is a major premise behind the MEGA test strategy. If valid, it makes this strategy vastly superior to the others presently in vogue. In fact, it qualifies even now as a "more promising line of research". In keeping with this description, the society might attempt to validate such a premise along complementary inductive pathways: empirical and ideological, statistical and theoretic. Even in the event that the premise is found to be conditional, mere explication of the conditions would enable an appropriate revision of the testing strategy... and a quantum-jump in psychometrics.
As members are doubtless aware, the society's test-designer (Ron Hoeflin) is already using statistical means to find "ultradiscriminative" problems which appear delineative at high levels of intelligence, Despite what may still be a paucity of good examples, it may not be too early to begin formulating the general characteristics of such problems. Points of conceptual orientation are far from impossible to find: a number of healthy theories, including those of computation, information, cybernetics, algorithms, cognition, and learning, might be made to yield tentative categories for the beginning stages of schematization.
The benefits of such a program to the society could be considerable. Ultradiscriminative problems could eventually be designed with every expectation of statistical validation; thus, the power of statistical methods could be optimised by virtue of sound theoretical underpinnings. In vindicating its testing strategy, the society might enhance its own "credentials". Perhaps the effects of "synectic" collaboration between subjects of complementary aptitudes (if not compulsive honesty) could somehow be minimised. In the long run, even greater benefits - e.g., a deeper understanding of the human intellect, an "enlightened heuristics" for educational application, and more - might accrue to the world at large. In any event, the credits of such a program are certain to outweigh its liabilities, rendering further justification superfluous.
Speculation aside, we should resist becoming distracted by the controversy over testing strategies and psychometrics in general. Intelligence is by nature polymorphic, consisting of passive and motivational, analytic and creative aspects in unknown, and perhaps unstable, proportion. The last thing that those who study it can afford to do is arbitrarily restrict themselves to an habitual methodology at the expense of all others... and especially of this one, as relatively conducive as it is to the natural manifestation of intelligence.
* - "problem" is here to be read in the widest sense, its definition encompassing the constraints imposed on solution.
SOLUTIONS TO TWO LOGIC PROBLEMS
Chris Cole 2240-314 Park Newport Drive Newport Beach, CA 92660
Labeled Boxes
Two boxes are labeled "A" and "B". A sign on box A says "The sign on box B is true and the gold is in box A". A sign on box B says "The sign on box A is false and the gold is in box A". Which box contains the gold,
Solution
A common line of reasoning is to assume that each statement must be either true or false, and to deduce that the gold is in box A. However, the assumption that a statement must be either true or false is not valid, as can be seen from the paradox which results from applying this assumption to the statement: "This statement is false". Therefore, the problem cannot be solved with the information given. (cf. Smullyan, "What Is the Name of This Book?", Prentice-Hall, 1978, 1170)
N-Person Fair Division
If two people want to divide a pie but do not trust each other, they can still ensure that each gets a fair share by using the technique that one person cuts and the other person chooses. Generalize this technique to more than two people. Take care to ensure that no one can be cheated by a coalition of the others.
Solution
Number the people from 1 to N. Person 1 cuts off a piece of the pie. Person 2 can either diminish the size of the cut off piece or pass. The same for persons 3 through N. The last person to touch the piece must take it and is removed from the process. Repeat this procedure with the remaining N - 1 people, until everyone has a piece. (cf. Luce and Raiffa, "Games and Decisions", Wiley, 1957, p. 366)
5-
QUESTIONNAIRE RESPONSES
Ronald K. Noeflin P. 0. Box 7430 New York, NY 10116
I have received responses to the questionnaire that appeared in Insight. #7 from five Titan members so far (out of twelve). It is not too late for the rest of you to submit responses. Here _ are the responses received so far, arranged alphabetically:
Name: Chris Cole Address: 2240-314 Park Newport Drive
Newport Beach, CA 92660 Day phone: (714) 855-3923 Evening phone: (714) 720-1761 Occupation: President, Peregrine Systems, Inc. (computer
software) Hobbies or interests: Travel, reading mysteries, walking
along beach, adventure games, movies, TV, challenging puzzles, hunting, philosophy, frequenting comedy clubs.
Are you satisfied with the name "Titan Society": No. If you have alternate names to suggest (regardless of how
you answered the previous question) put them here: Delphi, Knosis, Esemplastic, Quivira, Philomel, Logos, Sentinel.
Would you be able and willing to attend a meeting of the Titan Society in Southern California in 1987 if some convenient weekend could be found: Yes.
Suggested questions for future questionnaires: Suggestions for projects for the Society; suggestions for methods of expanding the Society.
Miscellaneous remarks: I propose that in collecting the members' votes for a new name, you allow each member 100 points in absolute value which they may distribute as positive and negative values amongst the candidates. The winner would have the highest total.
Name: Eric Hart Address: P. O. Box 813, Miller Pl., NY 11764 Day phone: No home phone; not reliably available by Evening phone: Phone at work Occupation: Variable, though generally maintain a security
position in some resort or nightclub. Hobbies or interests: Logic and philosophy; weightlifting
(about 6', 235 lbs.); music (e.g., electronic: writing, recording); writing poetry and fiction; reading (gen.
- 6 -
science); occasionally, sketching. Also: Artificial In-
telligence; conservation; psychology, parapsychology, and
mysticism; medicine. Are you satisfied with the name "Titan Society": At times (i.e.,
a qualified affirmative). If you have alternate names to suggest (regardless of how you
answered the previous question) put them here: A few pos-
sibilities: Societas Minervae, the Alembic, Athenic, Avatar,
Ridolon/Ridos, talon, Noetic, Paragon/Paramount, Prajna,
or Samandi Society. Come to think of it, some of these are
worse than "Titan". I guess a little hubris never hurt anybody, lately.
Would you be able and willing to attend a meeting of the Titan
Society in Southern California in 1987 if some convenient
weekend could be found: Unlikely, but not inconceivable.
Producing my physical presence at set coordinates is not
my forte (with due respect, of course, to the other members).
Suggested questions for future questionnaires: That is your con-
ception of the Society? That should be its goals? Is it
actually representative of the top 40,000 minds on Barth?
What is your opinion of intelligence testing in general?
Can it really be used to locate those capable of (or likely
to make) extraordinary intellectual contributions to man-
kind? If yes: in its present, or a more evolved form?
Miscellaneous remarks: It might be advisable, given that the
(untimed, unsupervised) testing strategy has been a fre-
quent target for nebulous criticism, to provide some theo-
retical underpinnings for the statistical research done to
date. See attached observations.
Name: William Hacker Address: 812 J Gallup Hill Road
Gaithersburg, MD 20879 Day phone: (301) 240-4632 Evening phone: (301) 777-3337 Occupation: Systems analyst Hobbies or interests: Bridge, puzzles, old movies, reading,
political/social science, conversation, psychometrics,
searching for Ms. Right, and above all, daydreaming.
Are you satisfied with the name "Titan Society": No.
Alternate suggestions: How about "Epsilon"? Not "The Epsilon
Society," just "Epsilon." The name has a certain ring to
it, has a classical flavor, and, because it is the fifth
letter of the Greek alphabet, suggests the fifth (inverse)
power of ten. By extension, a new Mega Society might be
"Zeta."
Would you be able and willing to attend a meeting of the Titan Society in Southern California in 1987 if some convenient weekend could be found: I would probably be able to attend a Southern California meeting if it were held after 2/87. I too am a Southern Califetnia resident. The above address is my temporary residence while on assignment.
Miscellaneous remarks: Do everything in your power to involve more women, even if that means bribery or bending the rules.
Name: Dean Inada Address: 55 North Saint John Avenue
Pasadena, CA 91103 Day phone: (818) 796-0331 Evening phone: -- Occupation: Programmer Hobbies or interests: Programming, rock climbing, counting
pieces formed by symmetrically interpenetrating figures. Are you satisfied with the name "Titan Society": No. Alternate suggestions: --- Would you be able and willing to attend a meeting of the Titan
Society in Southern California in 1987 if some convenient weekend could be found: Yes.
Name: Ray Wise Address: 50 Fairview St.
Huntington, NY 11743 Day phone: (516) 346-3109 Evening phone: (516) 673-8054 Occupation: Software engineer Hobbies or interests: Competitive running and biking, puzzles
and games, words & language, books & movies, woodworking. Are you satisfied with the name "Titan Society": Yes Alternate suggestions: In keeping with "mega" or one million,
how about something meaning 100,000 (Lakh, C I or the more antiquated Plum).
Would you be able and willing to attend a meeting of the Titan Society in Southern California in 1987 if some convenient weekend could be found: Willing, yes; able, maybe.
Suggested questions for future questionnaires: Family: age and education of parents, siblings, offspring, and IQ's if available.
Miscellaneous remarks:
CALCULATING FULL-RANGE CORRELATIONS
FOR THE _MEGA TEST
Grady N. Towers
(Editor's note: This letter is published with the permission of Mr. Towers. It is in response to Professor O'Rourke's re-marks on the unreliability of IQ tests in Insight #7, page 4.) Yr. Towers is a former anthropology student and a self-taught
expert in psychometrics.)
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PSYCHOMETRIC DATA FOR THE MEGA TEST
Ronald K. Moe fun P. 0. Box 7430 New York, NY 10116
The Highest 100 Scores on the Mega Test
0 (x = wrong answer) tO
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Note: In compiling these charts I have omitted about 250 out of 4,000 answer sheets from the compilation because they were based on the numbering of the problems in my own test booklet, which differs somewhat from the numbering used by Omni magazine, from which the bulk of the responses came. I also corrected a dozen or so minor mistakes in my original counting up of score totals, each of them involving an error of plus or minus one point in the total score. For intermediate scores, I chose ten answer sheets at random per raw score point.
The Highest 100 Scores on the Nega Test
(continued)
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21
QUESTIONNAIRE
Please indicate what amount you believe would be appropriate
for an annual subscription to Insight:
Please rate the following proposed names for the Society on a
scale from +5 (very positive) to -5 (very negative), using only
integers, including 0 (neutral).
Titan Society . . . talon
Delphi Noetic
Enosis Paragon
Esemplastic • • • Paramount
Quivira Prajna
Philomel Samandi Society .
Logos Epsilon
Sentinel Lakh
Societas Minervae .
Alembic Plum
Athenic Savant Society . . . .
Avatar Socratic Society . . .
Eidolon The Cerebrators . . . .
Eidos Society of Cerebrators
(continued on reverse side)
QUESTIONNAIRE
(continued)
Suggested projects for the Society:
(1)
(2)
(3)
Suggested methods of expanding the Society:
(1)
(2)
(3)
What is your opinion of intelligence testing in general? Can it really be used to locate those capable of (or likely to make) extraordinary intellectual contributions to mankind? If yes, In its (intelligence testing's) present or more evolved form?
Age and education of parents, siblings, offspring, and IQ's if available:
(Relation) (Age) (Education) (IQ)
