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INSIDE THE RICE No. 064 8th JULY 2014
GAOTRADE COMMODITIES [email protected]
GAFTA MEMBER Cell. : 0044 7584 577 478 [email protected] 1
E.U. Rice Ex Mill Bulk
USD
/MT
Euro
/Mt
$ /Mt Euro
/Mt
$/Mt Euro/Mt
12
Dec
2011
12 Dec
2011
13
Jan 2013
13
Jan 2013
10
July
2014
10
July
2014
Originario Round Japonica 705 560 530
Medium Japonica Lido/ Flipper 6 mm 760 560 690
Roma Lg jap 7,18 mm 640 1170
Baldo LG Jap 7,35 mm 880 680 1200
Arborio LG japonica Top 7,37 mm 1070 700 1200
INDICA LG Milled 7,61 mm 630 570 460
Parboiled Baldo LG Jap 980 680 1300
Parboiled INDICA Lg 720 630 540
Broken ¾ to more than ½ grain 380 365 310
Broken ½ grain 370 355 290
Rice Bran Row –Pula 150 139
Broken less ¼ sortex 300 255
Egyptian White Medium 5 % Fob FCL Alexandria 730
EU import Tax on Milled Rice Euro/Mt 175
EU import Tax on Milled Broken Euro/T 65
EU import tax on Brown any rice Euro/T 30
Spain Blanco Japonica RG Sevilla NA NA
Russian Rice Future – 14 % Br WM Osmangik
Ex Mill Krasn Bulk 623 468
684
Soft Wheat Futures Paris 246.50 187
Maize Futures Paris June 237.00 175
Durum Wheat Italy 298-310
THAILAND FOB 50 Kg PP bags USD/ MT
EURO/MT
$ /Mt Euro/
Mt $ Euro
Thailand milled Long Grain Indica
Thai White Rice 100% B 2013-2014 crop 600 560 430
Thai White Rice 5% 2013--14 585 550 415
Thai White Rice 5 % 2011-12 Na
Thai White Rice 10% 2013-14 580 545 400
Thai White Rice 10% 2012-13
Thai White Rice 15% 2013-14 575 540 390
Thai White Rice 25% 2013-14 570 535 380
Thai White Rice 25 % 2011-12
100 Broken A1 Super 2013-14 545 525 365
Fragrant A1 Super 2013-14 540 560
Parboiled rice 100% LG Sortexed W Milled 590 575 435
Hom Mali 92% Purity grade A 5% 1075 1080 1100
PAKISTAN FOB Stowed 50 Kg Karachi or
In Container FCL 20 “
$/MT
EURO/MT
USD/MT EURO/
MT $ Euro
Irri 6 Milled
WRLG IRRI 6 with 5 % Brkn sortex DP 435 445
INSIDE THE RICE No. 064 8th JULY 2014
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WRLG IRRI 6 with 10 % Brkn WM 425 435
WRLG IRRI 6 with 15 % Brkn W Milled 394 425
WRLG IRRI 6 with 15 % Brkn Standard 380 405
WR LG 25 max standard Milling 395 372 375
100% Broken Sortex Double polished 365 350 335
PK 386 Long Grain 2 % Na
Super Basmati Milled 2 % Old Crop 990 NA
IRRI 9 Milled 2 % 720 715
ParBoiled LG 5 % Broken max SRTXD 440 440
Small Broken w m d sortex 1,7 -2,5 mm Human consumption
NA
BASMATI D 98 with 2 % broken na
INDIA FOB Stowed 50 kg If Container premium $ 15/Mt to Vizag
$ EURO $ /Mt Euro/
Mt $ Euro
Parboiled 106 Long grain milled 5 Srtxd Kandla 510
White Milled Rice LG PR 106 Well Milled Sortex DP 5
Kandla 520
WR LG PR 106 WM 5% Br Standard Kandla 500
WRLG PR 106 25 % Br R W M Kandla 440
Broken sortex super PR 106 Kandla NA
W R IR 64 Long grain 5% DP srtxd Kakinada 435 435 415
W R IR 64 Long grain 5% Standard WM 420 400
Parboiled IR 64 Sortex Well milled 5 % Kakinada 428 400
Parboiled 1001 MG Sortex W M 5 % 380
W R IR 64 L G 15 % well milled
WR IR 64 long grain 25 % well milled 410 395 380
PB BROWN LG IR 64 / 6 mm 385
BROWN LG IR 64 / 6 mm 390 375
Broken Sortex D P Kernel more than 1,5 MM IR 64
325
312
Broken less than 1.5 mm well milled human consumption
305
295
PB Broken sortex well milled 315
1121 PUSA BASMATI 2 % ex Mill Rps/100 Haryana Punjab
8400
Pure Basmati milled 2 % ex Mill Rps/100 Haryana Punjab
12200
Medium Grain Swarna Sortex 5% DP 5.5 mm max
Kakinada 395 N crop
405
Med G Swarna 15 % broken Indica WM Kakinada NA
Med G Swarna 25 % Broken Standard milling RWM
Kakinada 370 New c 375
M Grain PB 1001 -5.6 mm SRTX WM 5 pct 395 New C 400
VIETNAM FOB 50 kg traditional vessel
$ EURO $ /Mt
Euro/ Mt
$/Mt
LG Milled 5% WM DP ¾ basis 495 415 420
10% Br basis 3/4 WM 490 405 415
INSIDE THE RICE No. 064 8th JULY 2014
GAOTRADE COMMODITIES [email protected]
GAFTA MEMBER Cell. : 0044 7584 577 478 [email protected] 3
15% Br basis 2/3 WM 475 395 395
25 % Br basis ½ grain R W MILLED 460 380 372
A1 Super broken Well Milled 425 355 335
Fragrant 100 % broken well milled 375
Jasmine Broken Pure 90 % sortex DP 400 580
LG Fragrant KDM Rice 5 purity 90% WM dp
5% 760
720
Fragrant Standard no 4900 , 5 % br max 600 570
MERCOSUR $ EURO $ /Mt Euro/
Mt $ Euro
Mercosur rice Long Grain Milled
Uruguay Long Grain Sortex 5% broken Bagged FOB
565 625
625
Uruguay PB Brown LG in Bulk in FCL 525 500
Uruguay Brown Long Grain FOB bulk FCL Na 490
Brazil LG 5 % broken bulk FAS + empty bag on board of vessel $ 10 /t
560 Na
590
Brazil LG 20 % Broken Fas +empty bags On board $ 10/mt
Na
Uruguay Parboiled 5 Sortex bagged Fob 595 575 NA
Brazil Parboiled 5 Sortex bulk FAS + empty bags $ 10/ Mt
555 565
605
São Paolo Milled LG Tipo 1 wholesaler 30 Kg bags Local Market
843 889
Uruguay broken 100 % Srtx FOB Bagged NA 340
Brazilian Broken FAS Bulk RGS port Bulk 330 320
Uruguay Milled Tipo 1 FOT Brazil Border 630
USA WR LG V W M 5 pct Br FAS Lake Charles
583
PADDY ex mill bulk cash 58 whole grain min
$ EURO $ /Mt Euro/
Mt $ Euro
Italy Long Grain Indica 385 285 392 295 240
Brazil Lungo Fino Indica Tipo 1 Pelotas RGS
58/10 286 343 257
343 252
Brazil Longo Fino T 1 Sorriso Mato Grosso 58/10 NA
Italy Medium Grain Japonica 472 350 379 285 542 400
Italy Paddy LG Japonica 330 917 670
Italy Round Grain
396 416
285
368 270
Russian Round Grain Japonica Yield 50 whole grain ex farm Krasnodar
10500 355 300
245
Indian Long Grain Indica ex farm Minimum Support Government 2013-14
INR13450 224
Free Market average North to South INR14000 234
Egypt Paddy Med/LG Japonica ex farm 410 300
Thai Long Grain Indica Paddy 265
Thai Fragrant Paddy
China Medium Grain Japonica Govern Price Paddy
444 489
INSIDE THE RICE No. 064 8th JULY 2014
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GAFTA MEMBER Cell. : 0044 7584 577 478 [email protected] 4
China Japonica MG Paddy free market 502 370
China early crop LG Indica Future Paddy 386 432 422
Vietnam LG Indica ex Mekong Farm dry Paddy average quality
300 220 245
Indonesian paddy Indica LG 404 395
CAMBODIA $ EURO $
Euro/ Mt
$ Euro
Cambodia Milled Long Grain FOB FOB bulk
FCL
Jasmine Top Phka Malis 5 pct 92 % pure 920 935 840
Milled rice Long Grain Broken 5 % 505 450
Fragrant top Quality Sen Kra Ob 5 % 720
Jasmin TPM pure Broken 100 % Srtx WM 620
Frangrant Broken A 1 SUPER 430
Standard broken well milled 520 355
Organic Jasmine Top Phka Malis 5% 92 % pure
1375
Organic Brown Jasmine Phka Mali natural 1235
USA Ex mill bulk $ $c/CWT $/MT $c/cwt USD/Mt
LG MILLED N 2 –Broken 4 % TEXAS Bagged 595 27.5 30.50
LG MILLED N 2 – Broken 4 % Louisiana Bagged 27 28.00
MEDIUM Californian 1 /4 pct broken Bagged 827 34 47.00
SHORT GRAIN CALIF n 1 34.5 48.00
Parboiled L G L/Tx/ average Bagged 33 34.00
Broken Second Heads LG 374 19.5 24.00
Broken Second Heads Medium Grain Cal 329 24.5 29.00
Brewers Broken average 17 21.00
Brewers Broken California Medium 18.5 22.50
Paddy Long Grain Louisiana 15.42
2 Sept
2012
10 Nov
2012
27 Jan
2013
15
August
2013
23
Dec
2013
6
Apr
2014
13
May
2014
10
July
2004
Corn USA
Future
8.11 7.38 7.20 4.73 4.31 5.04 5.10 4.02
Wheat USA
Soft red W
8.73 8.86 7.70 6..31 6.13 6.8 7.14 5.5
US Paddy
Rice Future
15.01 14.94 15.26 15.55 15.49
15.81 15.30 13.67
Euro /USD 1.2577 1.2712 1.3469 1.3305 1.3688 1.3753 1.371 1.3612
INSIDE THE RICE No. 064 8th JULY 2014
GAOTRADE COMMODITIES [email protected]
GAFTA MEMBER Cell. : 0044 7584 577 478 [email protected] 5
GENERAL VIEW
Brazil’s 2013/14 production forecasted at 8.6 million tons
Guyana, the 2013/14 production forecasted up 62,000 tons to 532,000 tons
Pakistan’s 2014/15 rice production forecast increase of 200,000 tons to 6.6 million tons
Vietnam’s 2013/14 production forecasted up 100,000 tons to a record 27.8 million tons
Sierra Leone’s 2013/14 crop increase of about 98,000 tons to 791,000 tons
Guinea’s 2013/14 crop forecasted to 1.36 million tons.
Ecuador’s 2013/14 crop forecast reduced of 60,000 tons to 790,000 tons.
EU’s 2013/14 production forecast lower 135,000 tons to 1.94 million tons.
Senegal’s 2013/14 production forecast lower 152,000 tons to 290,000 tons.
Global ending stocks for 2013/14 are projected at 111.2 Mio Mt, still 1.0 Mio Mt above a year earlier
and the largest ending stocks since 2001/02.
Thailand to carry higher stocks in 2013/14, estimated end June 18 Mio Mt milled basis.
Total calendar year 2014 global rice trade is forecast at a record 40.5 million tons.
Pakistan’s 2014 exports forecast raised to 3.9 Mio Mt.
Thailand’s 2014 exports forecasted to 9.0 Mio Mt.
Guyana’s 2014 exports forecasted to 400,000 Mt.
Vietnam’s 2014 exports forecasted to 6.5 Mio Mt.
China’s 2014 imports forecasted to 3 Mio Mt.
Philippines’ 2014 import forecasted to 2.0 Mio Mt.
EUROPEAN RICE IMPORTS
Period 1-Sept 2013 to -1 July 2014: Milled rice basis
Japonica total 75.000 Mt (brown and milled)
Indica total 786.000 Mt (brown and milled)
Broken rice 258.000 Mt (brown and milled)
INSIDE THE RICE No. 064 8th JULY 2014
GAOTRADE COMMODITIES [email protected]
GAFTA MEMBER Cell. : 0044 7584 577 478 [email protected] 6
Main Importers
France 142.000 Mt , Italy 60.000 Mt , Spain 43.000 Mt , Belgium 48.000 Mt, Netherland 108.000 Mt ,
Germany 60.000 Mt, Poland 60.000 Mt, Portugal 47.000 Mt, UK 202.000 Mt
EU IMPORTS MT
2009-10
12 Months
2010-11 2011-12 2012-13
Same
period
2013 -14
Sept /May
BASMATI TOTAL 313.000 318.000 330.000 319.000 324.000
INDIA SHARE 220.000 174.000 274.000 266.000 199.000
PAKISTAN SHARE 53.000 124.000
USA
Last week June 2014
Rice sales: 26,700 MT down 37% from the prior 4-weeks.
Haiti (17,800 MT), Ivory Coast (10,400 MT), Honduras (7,500 MT), Jordan (5,000 MT), and Mexico
(2,700MT).
Nicaragua (400 MT), Dominican Republic (300 MT).
Loading activity /Exports: 50,100 MT were down 15% from the prior 4-weeks
Mexico (26,800 MT), Japan (13,000 MT), South Korea (3,200 MT), Canada (3,000 MT), Jordan (800 MT).
Market comments
Long and medium grain rice prices steady; parboiled prices steady; second heads steady; brewers steady.
Rough rice old crop prices remain steady on limited available current sales. In California, medium and short
grain milled rice prices steady; second heads and brewers steady.
PAKISTAN
Milled Rice availability short at end of June 2014
New crop expected end September 2014
Export figures 1 July 2013- 31 May 2014
Mt Mt
W R LG Irri 6 1.852.000 Super Basmati 244.900
W R L G Irri 9 23.500 Pb Basmati 45.730
White LG Rice Blended 176.000 Basmati standard 116.500
Pb LG Rice Irri 9 22.000 Brown Basmati 100.350
Pb LG Rice Irri 6 63.700
Pb Lg Rice Blended 26.700
Total Non-Basmati 2.182.000 Total Basmati 507.500
Others Non-Basmati 120.000 Others Basmati 80.000
Total Exports 2.302.000 587.000
INSIDE THE RICE No. 064 8th JULY 2014
GAOTRADE COMMODITIES [email protected]
GAFTA MEMBER Cell. : 0044 7584 577 478 [email protected] 7
Main Destinations
Non-Basmati MT Basmati Mt
Benin 132.000 Italy 10.000
China 320.000 Oman 38.000
Cameroon 42.000 Qatar 13.000
Kenya 345.000 Spain 16.000
Saudi Arabia 69.000 UK 57.000
Ivory Coast 93.000 UAE 99.000
Guinea 73.000 USA 15.500
Madagascar 238.000 Yemen 44.000
Mauritania 62.000 Saudi Arabia 34.000
Mozambique 113.000 France 7.800
Sierra Leone 33.000 Belgium 31.200
Tanzania 113.000
VIETNAM
JUNE 23, 2014
According to the contract, the Viet Nam Food Corporation No 2 will export 200,000 tons of 5%
broken white rice to Malaysia in July and August this year. The export price is at US$410 /ton, free on board
basis. The deal is the biggest since Viet Nam signed the Philippines contract to export 800,000 tons of rice in
April this year. It is expected to support rice export prices ahead of supplies from the winter-spring crop
(January to July) harvests in the Red River Delta.
Statistics from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development show that Vietnam exported
591,000 tons of rice in May. The figures brought the country's rice exports during the first 6 months of the
year to 3 Mio MT milled rice. This figure is down 13 % in terms of volume from last year.
Currently, China is still the biggest importer of Vietnamese rice. China imported 913,957 tons of rice
from Vietnam, worth USD392.46 million, between January and April, up 2.39% on-year in terms of volume
Vietnam’s rice exports to China during the first four months of this year accounted for 41.5% of total rice
exports, up 3.35% from last year.
China became the Vietnam’s rice biggest importer one year ago. In 2013, Vietnam sold 2.2 million
tons of rice through official channels to China, which accounted for 33% of the total amount of 6.6 million
tons of rice exported.
Rice exports to the Philippines, the 2nd
largest importer of Vietnamese rice, during the first 4 months
of this year increased by 5.26 times in terms of volume from the same period last year. The Philippines
accounted for 18.66% of Vietnam's total rice exports during the period. The Vietnam Food Association (VFA)
forecast that the country’s rice exports may face more difficulties this year due to fierce competition from
Thailand. Hoa Tien will apply a new rice seed variety, OM6976, for this summer-autumn crop and the 2014-
15 winter-spring crop, Thai Van Quang from the city's agriculture and rural development department said
yesterday. The seed was chosen from 10 rice varieties tested in a three-crop pilot project as the most
appropriate for the agriculture-intensive commune, due to its high productivity as well as its ability to resist
insects.
INSIDE THE RICE No. 064 8th JULY 2014
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"The seed produces 6.2 tons per hectare in comparison to the 5.5 tons yield of the old seed," " the new
seed is resilient to climate change, while its short growth period of 95-110 days can prevent losses to the
summer-autumn rice crop due to flooding and storms in central provinces," the currently used seed takes 125-
130 days to grow.
THAILAND
ARMY TEAM CHECKING GOVERNMENT RICE WAREHOUSES with surprises!!
Missing high percentage of Thai Home Mali, substituted in bags with low quality rice, ID bags not correct vs
real contained quality, Quality deterioration all over. Fumigation not done in schedule.
End March 2014 government milled rice equivalent stocks totaled approximately at 20 Mio Mt, of
which 12 to 13 Mio Mt are old-crop rice stocks, 2011/12 and 2012/13 rice programs. 7-8 Mio Mt are from
the current 2013/14 pledging program
Since October 2013, the government has issued tenders totaling 1.6 Mio Mt via the AFET.
As of April 16, 2014, the government reportedly received approximately 11.6 million metric tons of
main-crop rice paddy (7.7 Mio Mt milled equivalent under the 2013/14 Main-Crop Rice Paddy Pledging
Program.
End June 100 Government teams / soldiers plus rice experts start checking the 1800 warehouses and
140 silos were the pledged rice were stored to count real amount of bags with ID , quality and phytosanitary
conditions.
The operation will probably take 60-90 days during which no sale or deliveries will be possible out of
the total Government old and new stocks. Expected large quantities missed, quality in bags changed compared
to the original ID references, condition and milling degree /color deteriorated in high percentage of the stocks.
High quality rice apparently is the most volatile variety in all warehouses! During the previous administration
farmers pledged a total of 44.52 million tonnes of paddy rice to the government.
INSIDE THE RICE No. 064 8th JULY 2014
GAOTRADE COMMODITIES [email protected]
GAFTA MEMBER Cell. : 0044 7584 577 478 [email protected] 9
In future the AFET sales /tenders of pledged rice has to be approved by the National Council. National
Council established a minimum price for paddy in the new campaign over Bath 8000/MT and a subsidy to the
farmers equivalent to $ 95 /hectare paddy under production.
Rice Exports
Cumulative export end May 2014 were at 3.830.000 Mt out of which:
White Rice all grade represented 1.800.000 Mt
White Rice 5 % broken covered 1.050.000 Mt
Parboiled sorted 5 % represent 621.000 Mt,
White 100 % broken up to 878.000 Mt
Thai Home Mali up to 552.000 Mt
INDIA 59.96 Rps /1 $
300.000 Mt milled Rice and Parboiled under load in Kakinada port end June. New Indian Government
is very careful on Food grain internal inflation and farmer production expected in 2014/2015 campaign .
SUPPORT PRICE 2014/15 INCREASED on RICE PADDY
Rice paddy common grade: 13600 INR/ Mt from 13.000 INR /Mt last year
Rice paddy Grade A LG : 14.000 INR/Mt from 13.450 INR/Mt last year
Northwestern India is set to receive 85% of normal rains, central India will receive 94% of normal
while southern peninsula and northeastern India are forecast to receive 93% and 99% of rainfall,
The 2014 monsoon rainfall activity through June 25, 2014, has been significantly below normal in
most parts of the country. If the monsoon does not recover by the mid-July, planting and production prospects
for kharif crops, especially rice, corn and soybeans and some pulses, will be adversely affected.
IDEAS
System of Rice Intensification (SRI)
A truant monsoon is in the offing, with El Niño weather patterns expected to bring about drier conditions.
India has the world’s largest area devoted to rice, a very water-intensive crop. This is a good time for giving
impetus to “more crop per drop” practices, now that the rice-growing kharif season is upon us.
The System of Rice Intensification (SRI) has demonstrated in several States the ability to save water
while raising yields in a cost-effective manner. About 60 % of the country’s rice area is irrigated, accounting
for 75% of production, but also by guzzling disproportionately large volumes of water. A subnormal monsoon
accentuates the problem of water scarcity, keeping in view that India supports 16% of the global population
with just four per cent of the world’s freshwater resources.
SRI started early in Tamil Nadu. With scientific and extension support from Tamil Nadu State
University, the area under SRI management has now reached about half of the State’s rice area. In Tripura,
from just 44 farmers using the methods in 2002, the number has increased to about 3500 on 100,000 hectares,
nearing half of that State’s rice area. Bihar started it with only a few hundred farmers, in 2007; 4 years later,
the area under SRI was reported to be about 10% of the State’s rice area, with a target area of 40% set for
2013-14.
INSIDE THE RICE No. 064 8th JULY 2014
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A woman farmer, who harvested 18 tons paddy/hectare, was awarded the “Krishi Karman Award” by
the President in January this year. The votaries of SRI tend to play down these super-yields as statistical
“outliers,” on the premise that it is the averages which are more significant than the extremes.
STOCKS
Government procurement on April 25, 2014, was estimated at 27.3 MMT compared to 30.5 MMT
during the corresponding period last year.
June 11, 2014 rice stocks reach the 28 Mio Mt (include 11 Mio Mt Paddy) still down from 33 Mio Mt
same period last year but over Government Strategic Minimum stocks requirement of about 14 Mio Mt.
June 31, 2014 rice stocks estimated at 26 Mio Mt.
Wheat Total Government stocks in May 31, 2014 / 41.6 Mio Mt against 44.4 Mio Mt a year ago.
Still over desire security stocks of 20 Mio Mt requested by Indian rules.
India's exports of wheat, rice and corn are expected to drop sharply by 29 % to 13.5 million tons in the
2014-15 marketing year due to sluggish global prices, according to expert reports.
The combined shipments of wheat, rice and corn from India are estimated to touch 19 million tons in
the ongoing 2013-14 marketing year.
Out of 13.5 million tonnes of cereals, India is expected to ship 8 million tons of rice, 3 million tons of
wheat and 2.5 million tons of corn in 2014-15.
On rice exports, forecast to be lower at 8 million tons (both Basmati and non-Basmati) for 2014-15
marketing year, as against 10 million tons this year, on expected weak international prices and expected lower
import demand from Iran.
Trade sources report that exports of long grain Basmati rice to Iran have slowed since October 2013
India's rice production to be 103 million tons and wheat output at 92.46 million tons in the ongoing
2013-14 marketing year.
Iran has slashed its purchases of India's Pusa basmati rice by around half over the past 3 months,
helping push India's domestic prices nearly 10% lower in recent weeks.
In cutting its purchases, some Iranian buyers have cited stringent new Iranian standards on chemical
contamination and dissatisfaction with the quality of rice being delivered, saying grades were below those
specified in contracts.
India is the largest exporter of rice to Iran. In the financial year ended in March 2014, India's sales of
basmati rice to Iran totalled 1.45 million metric tons.
Indian government data show. India shipped about 130,000 tons a month of basmati until February,
but sales have since plunged to 50,000-60,000 tons /month.
Last week Grain Board of Iraq buys 87,500 tons basmati rice from India in tender.
GENERAL DELAY IN PLANTING
Total Planting on Kharif crop start June harvest October in Mio Ha
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31 June 31 June
2014 2013
Rice ………………….2.19..........…………….3.91
Pulses ………………..0.43…………………...1.05
Cereals ………………1.95…………………...2.93
Oilseed……………….0.48…………………...6.07
Sugar cane …………...2.9………………….....5.58
Total ………………..13.10………………….25.10
Only about 45% of India’s cropped area irrigated, planting of most kharif crops (rice, corn, other coarse
grains and pulses), begins with the onset of monsoon.
AROMATIC RICE – New Delhi –
Physical market ex mill Punjab /Haryana in Rps/100 kgs Milled
April 6 June 13 July 10
Pusa-1121 (steam) at 9300 8,600 9,100
Pusa-1121 (sela/parboiled) at 8300 7,000 7,300
Pure Basmati (Raw / Milled) at 12,300 12,000 12,000 $ 2000
Duplicate basmati (steam) sold at 7,300 6,800 7,000
Pusa-1121 (second wand) was at 7,300 6,700 6,700
Non -Basmati
Sharbati (Steam) at 4,850 4,300 4,000
Sharbati (Sela/parboiled) at 4,500 4,000 3,800
Permal (raw-milled) at 2,320 2,100 2,300
Permal (sela) at 2,340 2,400 2,400
PR-11 (sela) at 2,700 2,400 2,500
PR-11 (Raw) at 2,600 2,500 2,600
PR14 (steam) at 2,950 2,600 2,800
Punjab and Haryana, the largest producers states of basmati rice in the country, has proposed to double area
under basmati to one million hectares from the current 500,000 hectares, and cut-down area under non-
basmati paddy
MINIMUM SUPPORT PRICE Rs /100 Kg
Crops 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14
Rice, paddy 9,300 10,300 10,300 11,100 12,800 13,100
Wheat 10,000 10,800 11,000 11,200 12,850 13,500
Corn 8,400 8,400 8,800 9,800 11,750 13,100
Sorghum 8,400 8,400 8,800 9,800 15,000 15,000
Pearl millet 8,400 8,400 8,800 9,800 11,750 13,100
Chickpeas 16,000 17,300 17,600 21,000 28,000 30,000
Lentils 17,000 18,700 18,700 22,500 28,000 29,000
Exchange Rate
– USD/INR
45.99 47.42 45.58 51.00 53.0 60.0
Monthly 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
INSIDE THE RICE No. 064 8th JULY 2014
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GAFTA MEMBER Cell. : 0044 7584 577 478 [email protected] 12
CAMBODIA
Rice Exports quantities update
France: 28500 Mt; Poland: 28000 Mt; Netherland 15700 Mt; Belgium 7800 Mt; China 7000 Mt
Mainly Milled Long grain Rice high quality
BRAZIL 2.4 Real /1 $
Production for 2013/2014 reach the 8.3 Mmt milled rice basis.
Export 2014/2015 forecast over 1,000.000 Mt basis milled.
Export Jan –May 2014 at 560.000 Mt
Import total expected at 720.000 Mt
BRAZILIAN MILLED RICE EXPORT 2013 -12 months
INDONESIA
1. January 10,012 6,798 9,703 25,730 21,500
2. February 13,644 5,089 14,417 24,100 27,000
3. March 5,062 12,534 12,310 45,400 35,750
4. April 17,287 17,946 15,036 23,280 35,960
5. May 5,499 20,520 13,115 28,345 27,970
6. June 17,990 4,274 13,426 29,100 29,700
7. July 15,030 12,703 20,527 31,400 0
8. August 5,997 20,404 15,530 29,360 0
9. September 4,744 14,384 15,169 29,400 0
10. October 6,078 19,067 16,967 28,000 0
11. November 7,988 9,559 25,189 37,800 0
12. December 9,645 44,905 34,328 46.800-- 0
Total Yearly 105,260 201,900 205,100 378,000 178,000
Country Quantity (x 000 mt)
2011 2012 2013
World 1,350.92 1,152.71 918.05
Venezuela 66.00 103.42 148.07
Cuba 42.00 116.02 107.47
Nicaragua 50.09 47.03 105.43
Senegal 119.21 116.39 95.18
Sierra Leone 77.27 98.75 74.84
Benin 30.77 85.40 73.98
Gambia 95.78 50.39 70.28
Netherlands 30.53 19.62 56.39
Panama 3.94 10.45 27.86
Bolivia 19.19 10.13 25.79
Switzerland 40.04 51.07 20.30
Costa Rica 0.55 0 20.00
Angola 17.56 19.65 16.93
Peru 13.84 29.94 14.81
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El Nino may reduce food crop production by prolonging the dry season and reducing rainfall.
Indonesia’s 2014 rainy season is still ongoing, with sufficient rainfall.
According to the Indonesian Ministry of Public Works (MPW), approximately 84% of Indonesian rice
area was irrigated, while the remaining 16% is rain fed.
2013/14 Indonesian rice production expected at 37.4 Mio MT (milled rice). The decline is due to
lower harvested area in the 1st crop cycle resulting from flooding in northern coastal Java during January and
February 2014.
In an election year Government will increase efforts to maintain rice prices as low as possible and will
lead to possible imports of about 1.5 MMT (milled rice) in 2013/14.
Based on the most recent Indonesian population data, 2012/13 rice consumption was at 38.6 Mio MT.
The GOI has instructed BULOG to maintain a minimum stock of 2 Mio MT by the end of 2014. Should
BULOG miss their June target, the GOI may then consider imports to maintain BULOG’s stock at their
prescribed levels. Possible imports of 1,5 Mio Mt is expected in 2014.
Ending stocks 2012/13 were at 6.45 Mio Mt lower than 2011/12 end stocks of about 7.4 Mio Mt.
Average daily rice in wholesale market in Jakarta of medium quality rice increased to Rp. 9,280/kg in
March 2014, higher compared to Rp. 8,253/kg in March 2013.
During the 2013/14 campaign, BULOG will allocate 2.8 Mio MT of rice for the Raskin program to
15,5 Mio poor families. Each family will receive 15 kg of rice/month per 12 months.
MYANMAR
2012/2013, rice paddy production was at 17.3 MMT.
In 2013/2014 paddy production is expected to increase to 19.8 MMT
In 2013/14, rice production area was approximately 7.0 million HA as farmers shift their cultivation to
summer rice varieties that are better suited for the dry season and also meets Chinese consumer demands.
Expected yields should increase by 3.7%. Consumption estimated for milled rice at 11.7 Mio MT for
2013/2014.
CHINA
The country ingested 146 million tons in 2013, making it by far the world's largest consumer of the
grain, a longstanding title. What's worrying the government isn't how much rice China will eat this year. That
figure is set to slowly decrease as the country urbanizes. Rather, leaders are closely monitoring how much rice
China imports, as well as the factors that could make China dependent on foreign grain in the future.
During the past 4 years, rice shipments to China have climbed some 530%. In 2013, China bought 3.4
million tons of rice from abroad, surpassing Nigeria for the first time as the world's biggest importer,
according to Index Mundi, an edible commodities tracker.
Beijing isn't exactly celebrating the new title. In fact, this year agricultural policymakers will step up
their guard on what they consider to be grain self-sufficiency. In early 2014, China's State Council will issue
an annual policy report known as “Document No. 1.”
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The statement, will likely call for 100% self-sufficiency in edible grain, clarifying one of China's
longest-running policies. A less specific definition for self-sufficiency was originally set at 95% in a long-
term plan running 12 years through 2020. “The government is very, very worried about imports.”
For a country that produced more than 200 million tons of rice in 2013, 3.4 million tons in imports
seems like a trivial sum. As agricultural policymakers watch import levels rise, they're also tracking the
country's long-term capacity to supply its own grain – often in the face of mounting environmental challenges.
In 2010, the director of China's Rural Development Institute, first sounded the alarm on the scarcity of
water in the northeast, the country's grain basket. Of the increasing shortfall, he wrote, “It's inevitable that the
rate of self-sufficiency will decline.”
China feeds 22% of the world's population with just 7% of the earth's arable land and the second figure
is declining steadily as croplands desertify. This week, the State Forestry Administration said that 9% of
China's wetlands disappeared during the past 10 years. Doubts again early last year when, as grain imports hit
an all-time high, China announced that the country would not impose curbs on imports in 2013.
Pollution is another bombshell. In May, a government test in rice markets in the southern city of
Guangzhou said that half of the tested grain was contaminated with high levels of the heavy metal cadmium,
although the scope of those tests was later shown to be quite limited.
In the final days of 2013, other news about 2.5% of China's arable land was too contaminated by heavy metals
to farm. Anxiety over cadmium-laced rice or drying paddy fields isn't misplaced. Given its history with
famine, and its long-term struggle to be self-sufficient, a deteriorating environment gives China good reason
to worry.
Collective farming for the most part was disastrous. Tens of millions of people starved in the
countryside due partly to poor productivity and low yields on farms in 1959 and 1960. The opening up of
China in the late 1970s and early 1980s was led by reformers striving to stabilize crop yields and keep bellies
full. The government has strived to incrementally raise the rate of self-sufficiency with one goal in mind:
“The first thing it wants to do is protect the edible grain. Everything else is less important.”
The central government isn't just worried about rice. Imports of wheat, corn and soybeans have grown
dramatically during the past few years. China is also the world's largest consumer of wheat, putting down 126
million tons of noodles, fried gluten, as well as wheat-based animal feed, in 2013. Imports jumped by 187%
last year alone.
Corn imports grew by 159% in 2013, after surging by 2,657% in 2009 and some 3,000% in 2005,
according to Index Mundi.
Because the amount of rice, wheat and corn consumed in the country is so vast, a slight adjustment in
China's self-sufficiency rates can lead to upheavals in the amount it imports. This happened with rice during
the past 3 years, but not for the most obvious reasons.
At the end of 2012, as China closed in on the No. 1 rice-importer title, some analysts questioned if the
country's new hunger for imported grain would continue to grow and eventually push the price of rice on the
international market sky high. Experts have come out to disprove that notion. Huang Jikun, director at the
Center for Chinese Agricultural Policy at the Chinese Academy of Sciences in Beijing, told China Economic
Review that China's overall demand for rice is falling as the country urbanizes. Urban dwellers consume about
half the amount of rice their counterparts in the countryside eat. As more and more rural folk move to the
cities they will slowly diversify their diet and China will eat fewer bowls of rice.
“It is not too difficult for China to achieve food grain self-sufficiency because per capita consumption
for rice and wheat will fall in the coming decades,” Huang said. Pricing is the dominant factor contributing to
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imported rice. Central planners set grain prices that, in terms of rice, have been higher than international
prices since countries such as India and Pakistan flooded the market with the grain in 2012. Many Chinese
traders have opted for the cheaper stuff.
In September, 2013 state-owned Xinjiang Construction and Production Corporation struck a deal with
Ukraine for the rights to farm 3 million hectares of its land for 50 years. The deal more than doubled China's
overseas agricultural projects in what analysts said was a new era for Chinese farming abroad.
RICE AND GRAIN IN EGYPT
Forecast: Egyptian rice production in 2014/2015 will reach the 5 Mio MT from an estimated 4.880
Mio MT in 2013/2014, as area planted with the grain and will slightly increase from 790,000 ha in 2013/2014
to 805,000 ha in 2014/2015.
The quantity consumed of milled rice at 4.0 MMT in 2013/14 and forecast at 4.1 MMT of milled rice
to be consumed in 2014/15. Private Rice stocks in 2013/14 will slightly increase due to the ban imposed on
exports. Under the ration card program, the Ministry of Supply still has to provide 1.5 kg of rice
/person/month for the 70 million ration card holders or a total of about 1.4 MMT /year. GASC previously
procured Egyptian medium grain for the ration card program. There is now a program to redistribute
subsidized commodities using a smart card system that allows consumer choice and make commodities
affordable with the same subsidized prices
IMPORTS-EXPORTS
Rice exports under export licences system were suspended however by internal decision in November 2013.
The price of one ton of Egyptian rice would be on the order of $900/MT on the international market,
vs. $ 420/MT of the imported long grain rice Asiatic origin that can be used in substitution of local rice for
GASC’s requirement of about 1.3 Mio MT of subsidized rice that benefits 68 million people with ration cards.
Trade sources also indicated that despite the rice export ban, contraband Egyptian rice is making its way to
shops across the Arabian Gulf in any case, so it is a non sense to be maintained.
Any decision taken by the government of Egypt to lift the ban on exporting rice will only increase the
Egyptian trade balance at the end of the year. Egyptian Rice will compete against US and Russia, which
stepped in to supply Egypt's neighbours and Turkey market with Japonica Medium grain.
Egypt has a zero import tax quota into the EU market of about 190.000 mt milled rice in 2014 campaign
The new Trade Minister indicated that there are demands for resumption of exports so Egyptian
suppliers can take advantage of the international market premium for Japonica medium-grain rice.
The government also announced that it would accept offers to buy imported rice in its next tender for
the subsidy program, a sign that the door for Egyptian rice exports could soon be opened.
Egyptian wheat imports are forecast to be around 10.3 MMT in 2014/15 compared to 10.0 MMT in
2013/14. GASC is projected to import nearly 5.7 MMT, and the rest is to be imported by the private sector.
Cairo forecasts Egypt’s wheat production in 2014/15 to reach 8.9 MMT,
Corn imports forecasted at around 6.5 MMT in 2014/2015 and Egypt’s corn production to total about
5.7 MMT in 2014/15.
PHILIPPINES RICE NEWS
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Philippine President is seeking to curb food inflation running at the fastest pace since 2009, boosted by
the higher cost of rice, a staple food. Philippine officials will meet next week to consider more rice imports
and ending a subsidy for farmers to cut debt at the National Food Authority, Presidential Assistant for Food
Security said.
Debt at the National Food Authority, which subsidizes farmers by buying their rice at higher prices,
will probably climb to 180 billion pesos ($4.1 billion) by end-2016 without changes to the program, Aquino
has said. That is about twice the Defense budget this year.
The Philippines, the largest importer of rice in Southeast Asia and the biggest buyer in Asia after
China, plans to import 1.4 million tons this year, including volumes agreed last year. More imports are
“needed” and the quantity will depend on the impact of drier weather from El Nino, the expected yield of the
next harvest, and the government’s buffer stock, he said.
Food prices surged 7.4% in June from a year earlier, while the inflation rate was 4.4%. Food and non-
alcoholic beverages have a weightage of about 40% in the consumer-price index basket.
Asian policy makers are under increasing pressure to curb inflation amid rising food prices. The
Philippines in June announced it will import an additional 200,000 metric tons of rice from Vietnam,
PhilippineS domestic rice prices, which rose to a record in June, may ease by end of September as 600,000
metric tons of imports are expected to arrive this quarter. Separately, it allowed traders in February to buy
163,000 tons of rice from overseas
Retail prices of well-milled rice rose 20% from a year earlier to a record as of the third week of June,
according to the Philippine Statistics Authority. The rice-subsidy program has been in place since at least
1989. “The increase in rice prices really is inflationary; it affects other products.” Policy makers will consider
a proposal in July to adopt a free market and allow traders to import as much rice as they want, Economic
Planning Secretary said. The Philippines may import 2 million tons this year and 1.8 million tons in 2015
The meeting of officials to decide on the rice policy will take place July 16.
NIGERIA RICE IMPORTS
The Federal Government has approved plans to slash the controversial 110% importduty and levy on
rice. This is as President Goodluck Jonathan has approved the new 3 years (2014-2017) fiscal policy measure
on rice with effect from May 26, 2014.
The policy, which started in January 2013 with the aim of discouraging importation and encouraging
local rice production, was seen to have succeeded in promoting smuggling of the commodity through the land
borders.
According to the new fiscal policy, imported husked-brown, paddy, unprocessed and semi-milled or
wholly milled rice was reduced to 20% levy and 10% duty for investors that have rice milling capacity while
importation by full-time traders would attract 60% levy and 10% duty.
The Federal Government had given all importers of rice with shiploads waiting at various nation’s
seaports Friday, June 13, 2014, to clear the rice upon submission of a letter of indemnity to the Nigeria
Customs Service (NCS). This indemnity enabled the importers to clear their consignments without paying
additional demurrage.
The circular dated June 16, 2014 reads in part: “This is to inform that pending when the next fiscal
policy measures on rice are issued, all importers of rice with shiploads already awaiting clearance at Nigerian
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ports should be allowed to clear their consignments upon the submission of a letter of indemnity to Customs.
The indemnity is to allow them clear their various consignments of rice without attracting further demurrage,
pending when the next 2014 duty rates and levies are announced, at which point they will pay the new rates
accordingly.”
HISTORY IN GRAIN TRADING AND SHIPPING
The tonnage of Roman merchant ships
In order to satisfy the various requirements of commerce, ship tonnages were quite variable. According to
written sources, ships with a capacity of 10,000 modii of grain (that is, about 70 metric tons) constituted the
lower end of vessels.
They must have constituted the majority of vessels utilized in commerce, with a capacity which could easily
exceed 100 tons, such as the 3,000-amphora (150-tonne)
The hull of the Madrague de Giens shipwreck in France (1st century B.C.) originally measured 40 meters in
length and had a capacity of 400 tons. In this case we have confirmation of ancient written sources which
considered the “10,000-amphora carriers” (500 tons) utilized at the end of the Republic or the beginning of
the Roman empire -- to have been the largest ships of their time, and which set the threshold of these vessels
at 50,000 modii (330 tons).
Not to mention Caligula’s obelisk-carrier (1,300 tons), which must have reached 1,200 tons.
The "Isis" was not a vessel intended for any particular purpose, like the two colossal ships found in Nemi
Lake designed as floating palaces and measuring over 70 meters in length; it was merely one of the numerous
granary ships of Alexandria’s regular fleet.
