IAEA International Atomic Energy Agency

INTERNATIONAL PROJECT ON INNOVATIVE NUCLEAR REACTORS

AND FUEL CYCLES (INPRO)

INPRO Analytical framework for the analysis of

transition scenarios to sustainable Nuclear

Energy Systems

INPRO Dialogue Forum “Roadmaps for a Transition to Globally Sustainable Nuclear Energy Systems”

20–23 October 2015,

VIC Room M2, IAEA Headquarters, Vienna

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2 Energy system planning,

INPRO Analytical framework and Methodology

National Energy Planning:

Development of energy demand scenarios

Evaluation of energy supply options including nuclear

How does nuclear energy fit into the national energy mix?

INPRO Analytical framework for the analysis of

transition scenarios to sustainable NESs

How do we get there from here?

Modelling and analysis of transition scenarios to sustainable

Nuclear Energy Systems

INPRO Methodology of sustainability assessment

What are the gaps?

Nuclear Energy System Assessment using the INPRO

Methodology

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The GAINS Framework: Modelling

NES Development and Progress

Toward Sustainability

• The collaborative project GAINS (Global Architecture of Innovative Nuclear

Systems based on Thermal and Fast Reactors including Closed Fuel Cycles ) was initiated by MS as a part of INPRO activity on Global Nuclear Energy Scenarios

• 15 participants from different parts of the world: Belgium, Canada, China, Czech Republic, France, India, Italy, Japan, Republic of Korea, Russian Federation, Slovakia, Spain, Ukraine, USA, EC, and Argentina as an observer

• MSs expressed their interest in joint modelling of global and regional trends in sustainable nuclear power taking into account technical innovations and multilateral cooperation

• The objective was to develop a framework for assessing future nuclear energy system taking into account sustainable development and to validate the results through analyses of sample transition scenarios from present NES architecture to future architectures including innovative nuclear technologies

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Definition of the GAINS Framework

A common methodological approach with the basic principles,

assumptions and boundary conditions;

• Scenarios for nuclear power evolution and a future transition to

innovative nuclear energy systems with thermal and fast reactors;

• Homogeneous and Heterogeneous World Model

• IAEA models and tools for material flow simulation to support

evaluation along with national instruments;

• Architectures for nuclear energy systems and

• Data on nuclear reactors and associated fuel cycles

• Agreed metrics for scenario analyses and assessment;

• Templates for analysis of simulation results;

• Sample scenario studies, including a set of basic cases which

could be used for comparison and reference purposes

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Scenarios for nuclear power evolution

Global Scenarios

Nuclear Power Capacity Requirement

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197019801990200020102020203020402050206020702080209021002110

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e

GAINS_moderate GAINS_high SRES/average

SRES/high IAEA_low IAEA_high

history

5000 GWe

2500 GWe

18000 GWe by 2100

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Two long-term NP demand scenarios

- high –

1500 Gwe-year by 2050, 5000 GWe year by 2100);

moderate –

1000 GWe –year by 2050, 2500 GWe year by 2100.

GAINS project surveyed available projections on

the nuclear demand in 21-st century including a

large set of evaluations compiled in a (top down

approach) along with the information from MSs

compiled by IAEA (bottom up approach)

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Homogeneous and Heterogeneous

Models of a Global Nuclear System

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Homogeneous world model suggests a convergent world with an unification of reactor fleet

and shared nuclear infrastructure

Heterogeneous world model developed in GAINS comprises of nuclear groups of countries

with different SNF management strategies.

NG1 - recycling strategy group;

NG2 - direct disposal /reprocessing

abroad

NG3 - minimal infrastructure:

disposal or reprocessing abroad

heterogeneous world storyline involves either no cooperation (non-synergistic world ) or

different degrees of cooperation between groups and application of different technologies and

fuel cycle strategies (synergistic world)

homogeneous synergistic world model involves full cooperation between different parts of

the world and uniform technology application

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Architectures

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I. A homogeneous systems :

• “business-as-usual (BAU)” NES based on PWRs (94%)

and HWRs (6%) operated in a OTFC

• for CNFC-FR & TR

II. A heterogeneous system: CNFC-FR & TR in NG1,

OTFC-TR in NG2; TR with minimal infrastructure in

NG3

III. Other innovative architecture :

• Minor actinides (MA) reducing components (Accelerator

Driven Systems - ADS or Molten Salt Reactors - MSR)

• Thorium FC with FR and TR.

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Associated fuel cycle schemes

• once-through fuel cycle based on

thermal reactor fleet and

• a combined once-through fuel cycle

and fast reactor closed fuel cycle

system. .

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Tails assay of uranium

enrichment: is 0.2%.

Cooling time for SF in NPP

storage: is 6 years

No limitation on NFC

infrastructure

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Reactor/Fuel Data Template –

Reactor characteristics

MW

MW

%

%

EFPD

Core Axial blanket Radial blanket

% 94.5 3.0 2.5

3 3 3.5

EFPD 420 420 490

MW/t 157.00 11.465 8.532

MWd/t 65939 4815 4181

MW 1984.5 63.0 52.5

% 52.0 22.6 25.4

% 54.0 23.5 22.5

MWd/t

EFPD

MW/t

tHM

tHM / y

Reactor net electric output

Reactor thermal output

Average load factor

Thermal efficiency 41.43

Operation cycle length

Power share of each region*

No. of refuelling batches**

Fuel residence time**

Specific power density*

Average discharged burnup*

Thermal power of each region*

Average burnup of whole core* 37677

Average residence time of whole core* 435.771

Average power density of whole core* 86.462

Initial core inventory 24.288

870

2100

85

140

Heavy metal weight share

Intial core and full core discharge

Equilibrium refueling

Equilibrium Loading 17.292

Reactors:

Low Medium and High burn-up

light water reactors (LWRs);

Heavy water reactors (HWRs);

Sodium cooled fast reactors with

different conversion/breeding

ratios

Accelerated driven system (ADS)

and molten salt reactor (MSR),

both for minor actinide (MA)

burning;

ThO2 and PuO2 fuelled CANDU

(HWR) reactors and

ThO2, 233U and PuO2 fuelled

CANDU reactors.

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Reactor/Fuel Data Isotopic

Charge/Discharge

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Weight (kg) (%) Weight (kg) (%) Weight (kg) (%) Weight (kg) (%)

U-234 3.863E-03 4.951E-05 7.944E-03 3.271E-05

U-235 6.458E+01 2.659E-01 2.065E+01 2.646E-01 1.932E+01 2.476E-01 6.668E+01 2.745E-01

U-236 1.695E+00 2.173E-02 4.017E+00 1.654E-02

U-238 2.146E+04 8.836E+01 6.862E+03 8.794E+01 6.537E+03 8.377E+01 2.073E+04 8.534E+01

Np-237 1.037E+00 1.329E-02 2.262E+00 9.312E-03

Pu-238 1.381E+01 5.685E-02 4.602E+00 5.898E-02 3.522E-01 4.514E-03 5.661E-01 2.331E-03

Pu-239 1.657E+03 6.822E+00 5.523E+02 7.078E+00 5.767E+02 7.390E+00 1.762E+03 7.253E+00

Pu-240 6.766E+02 2.786E+00 2.255E+02 2.890E+00 2.459E+02 3.151E+00 7.280E+02 2.997E+00

Pu-241 3.010E+02 1.239E+00 1.003E+02 1.286E+00 7.410E+01 9.496E-01 2.463E+02 1.014E+00

Pu-242 1.132E+02 4.662E-01 3.774E+01 4.837E-01 4.006E+01 5.134E-01 1.193E+02 4.913E-01

Am-241 3.926E+00 5.031E-02 8.531E+00 3.512E-02

Am-242m 8.594E-02 1.101E-03 1.455E-01 5.990E-04

Am-243 2.960E+00 3.793E-02 6.071E+00 2.500E-02

Cm-242 2.694E-01 3.452E-03 4.793E-01 1.973E-03

Cm-244 3.094E-01 3.966E-03 4.930E-01 2.030E-03

Cm-245 1.039E-02 1.331E-04 1.425E-02 5.868E-05

Total FP 2.997E+02 3.841E+00 6.166E+02 2.539E+00

Total HM&FP 24288.257 100.000 7803.086 100.000 7803.086 100.000 24288.257 100.000

Total U 21526.758 88.630 6882.586 88.203 6557.715 84.040 20797.868 85.629

Total Pu 2761.499 11.370 920.500 11.797 937.062 12.009 2855.758 11.758

Total MA

(Np+Am+Cm)13.807 0.057 0.000 0.000 8.598 0.110 17.996 0.074

Initial loading (kg) Reload (kg) Discharge (kg)Full core discharge at retirement

(kg)Isotopes

Refueling Data ( Attention!! Reload and discharge are as of one refueling in equilibrium cycle.)

IAEA International Atomic Energy Agency

Metrics (key indicators) for scenario analysis/ assessment

The idea is that a KI would have a

distinctive capability for capturing the

essence of a given area, and that they

would provide a means to establish

targets in a specific area to be reached

via improving technical or

infrastructural characteristics of the

NES.

The set of GAINS KIs

although developed for global

architectures, can also be

adapted for a more localized

application of the framework.

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Tools for NES modelling

Codes used for sample scenario studies:

• Codes disseminated by the IAEA: • MESSAGE - Model for Energy Supply System Alternatives and their General

Environmental impacts, MESSAGE is IAEA’s large-scale dynamic systems-engineering,

economic optimization model that is used for development of medium- to long-term

energy scenario and policy analysis.

• NFCSS is Nuclear Fuel Cycle Simulation System which estimates nuclear fuel cycle

service and material requirements as well as material arising for the each stage of the

nuclear fuel cycle.

• DESAE Dynamic of Energy System – Atomic Energy is the interactive NFC simulation

code for quantitative assessment of nuclear energy system key indicators

• National codes: DANESS (Republic of Korea), DESAE (Belgium, Russia),

COSI (France), FAMILY (Japan), TEPS (India), and VISION (USA).

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IAEA May 13, 2011 13

Sample Scenario Studies

• Framework Base Cases

• Homogeneous World

• Business as Usual Scenario

• Fast Reactor Introduction Scenario

• Heterogeneous World

• Non-Synergistic World Scenario

• Synergistic World Scenario

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Power Production

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The share of HWR is settled as 6% of total nuclear power capacity. By 2100, the share of fast

reactors can reach about 50% of global nuclear energy production. A further increase of the

fast reactor share is restricted by the limited breeding performance of the break-even fast

reactor.

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KI-1: Power Production Growth - High case -

HWR

LWR

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LWR

FR

BAU BAU&FR

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Cumulative Natural Uranium Used

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BAU BAU&FR

By the end of the century, the total mass of consumed natural uranium would reach 50 million

tonnes for BAU case. In the BAU+FR case, uranium consumption becomes 18 million tonnes

lower at 2100 than in the BAU+ case. The conventional natural uranium resources will be

exhausted around 2070 in the BAU+ case and around 2085 in the BAU+FR case

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Cumulative amount of SF

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BAU BAU&FR

The total amount of spent fuel accumulated by 2100 in the BAU scenario reaches 6 million

tonnes of SF. The LWR spent fuel can be significantly reduced by introduction of fast

reactor as shown in figure

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Conclusion

• The IAEA/INPRO GAINS project has developed an analytical framework for analysis of

global NES architecture which can be applied, customized and enhanced to support

national and international collaborative assessments of NES technologies and scenarios.

• Dynamic modelling of nuclear energy systems (NES) is a natural way for understanding

NES sustainability.

• GAINS has shown that consecutive introduction of innovative components of NES is

capable to enhance NES sustainability securing uranium savings, facilitating spent fuel

and waste management infrastructure development and, potentially, strengthening

proliferation resistance.

• The framework includes a heterogeneous world model to consider specific fuel cycle

development strategies that different countries may pursue. This model is capable of

realistically simulating global nuclear energy development and allows countries to identify

and assess areas of potential cooperation. This cooperation could amplify the positive

effects of technology innovation in achieving sustainable nuclear energy.

• GAINS has shown through sample analysis that cooperation among countries could

amplify the positive effects of technology innovation in achieving sustainable nuclear

energy. Countries that do not pursue innovative reactor - programmes could benefit from

the innovations by cooperation with holder countries

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THANKS!