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Influence of future emissions and climate on atmospheric PAH transport Carey Friedman MIT Noelle E. Selin MIT Yanxu Zhang University of Washington

Influence’of’future’emissionsand climateonatmospheric PAH ...web.mit.edu/selin/www/presentations/PAHs_GC2013_CLF.pdfPAH’transport’ Carey’Friedman’ ... TheGEOS Chem!PAHmodel!

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Page 1: Influence’of’future’emissionsand climateonatmospheric PAH ...web.mit.edu/selin/www/presentations/PAHs_GC2013_CLF.pdfPAH’transport’ Carey’Friedman’ ... TheGEOS Chem!PAHmodel!

Influence  of  future  emissions  and  climate  on  atmospheric    

PAH  transport  

Carey  Friedman  MIT    Noelle  E.  Selin  MIT  Yanxu  Zhang  University  of  Washington    

Page 2: Influence’of’future’emissionsand climateonatmospheric PAH ...web.mit.edu/selin/www/presentations/PAHs_GC2013_CLF.pdfPAH’transport’ Carey’Friedman’ ... TheGEOS Chem!PAHmodel!

Polycyclic  aroma+c  hydrocarbons  (PAHs):  Why  do  we  care?  •  Probable/possible  human  carcinogens  (U.S.  EPA)  •  Travel  long  distances  in  the  air  (measured  in  Arc+c)  •  Exposures  include  inhala+on  

Ques+ons  in  this  study:  •  What  is  the  rela+ve  influence  of  future  (2050)  climate  and  

future  emissions  on  PAH  transport?  •  How  might  we  diagnose  climate  versus  emissions  influences?  

Page 3: Influence’of’future’emissionsand climateonatmospheric PAH ...web.mit.edu/selin/www/presentations/PAHs_GC2013_CLF.pdfPAH’transport’ Carey’Friedman’ ... TheGEOS Chem!PAHmodel!

The  GEOS-­‐Chem  PAH  model  

Gas  phase  

OH  Oxida+on  

OC-­‐Bound  

Emissions  

BC-­‐bound  

Wet  dep   Dry  dep  

O3  Oxida+on   O3  Oxida+on  

Wet  dep   Dry  dep   Wet  dep   Dry  dep  

Emissions:  1)  Primary  2)  Secondary  

Friedman  and  Selin  ES&T  2012  

Phenanthrene  (PHE)   Pyrene  (PYR)   Benzo[a]pyrene  (BaP)  

Gas   Par+culate  

Page 4: Influence’of’future’emissionsand climateonatmospheric PAH ...web.mit.edu/selin/www/presentations/PAHs_GC2013_CLF.pdfPAH’transport’ Carey’Friedman’ ... TheGEOS Chem!PAHmodel!

North  America  

Europe  Russia  

South  Asia  

East  Asia  

This  study:  future  emissions  and  future  climate  We  scale  the  top  (70%)  global  anthropogenic  sources  from  the    

Zhang  and  Tao  (Atmos.  Environ.,  2009)  inventory  from  ~2000  to  2050:      

Tradi+onal  biomass  burning  (57%)  Domes+c  coal  burning  (4%)  Vehicle  emissions  (5%)  Coke  produc+on  (4%)    

EMISSIONS  GO  DOWN  

Par+cles:      OC  ê      BC  ê              Oxidants:      OHé      O3é  

Page 5: Influence’of’future’emissionsand climateonatmospheric PAH ...web.mit.edu/selin/www/presentations/PAHs_GC2013_CLF.pdfPAH’transport’ Carey’Friedman’ ... TheGEOS Chem!PAHmodel!

This  study:  future  emissions  and  future  climate  

Present  climate   Future  climate  (IPCC  A1B)  

Mean  of  simulated  years:   1997-­‐2003   2047-­‐2053  

Precipita+on  

é  5%  

Temperature    

é  1.6  C  

Wildfire  emissions  (17%)  

We  simulate  present  and  future  climate  with  GISS  GCM  meteorology  from  the  GCAP  project:    

é  or  no  change  

Par+cles:      OC  ê      BC  ê              Oxidants:      OHê      O3ê  

Page 6: Influence’of’future’emissionsand climateonatmospheric PAH ...web.mit.edu/selin/www/presentations/PAHs_GC2013_CLF.pdfPAH’transport’ Carey’Friedman’ ... TheGEOS Chem!PAHmodel!

Results:  Vola+lity  Maiers  

< > ng/m3

< > ng/m3

< > ng/m3

< > ng/m

< > ng/m

< > ng/m

Phenanthrene  (vola+le)   Benzo[a]pyrene  (non-­‐vola+le)  2050-­‐2000:  

Emissions  

Climate  

Emissions  &  

Climate  

-­‐23%  

+4%  

-­‐19%  

-­‐37%  

-­‐3%  

-­‐38%  

Change  in  mean  northern  hemisphere  concentra+ons  

CLIM

ATE  PE

NAL

TY:  19%

 

CLIMATE  BEN

EFIT:  5%  

Page 7: Influence’of’future’emissionsand climateonatmospheric PAH ...web.mit.edu/selin/www/presentations/PAHs_GC2013_CLF.pdfPAH’transport’ Carey’Friedman’ ... TheGEOS Chem!PAHmodel!

The  Arc+c  is  a  priority  for  resolving  climate  vs.  emissions  influences  

0o

15oN

30oN

45oN

60oN

75oN

90oN

0 80 160 240 320 400 480 PHE/BaP

0o

15oN

30oN

45oN

60oN

75oN

90oN

0 15 31 48

0o

15oN

30oN

45oN

60oN

75oN

90oN

0 16 32 48

CONTROL

2050 EMISSIONS

2050 CLIMATE

A

B

C

PHE/BaP

PHE/BaP

5  

50  

500  

PHE/Ba

P  

Measured  2000  Control  Simula+on  2050  Emissions  2050  Climate  

En+re  Arc+c  60-­‐90N  n=3  

High  Arc+c  80-­‐90N  n=1  

Page 8: Influence’of’future’emissionsand climateonatmospheric PAH ...web.mit.edu/selin/www/presentations/PAHs_GC2013_CLF.pdfPAH’transport’ Carey’Friedman’ ... TheGEOS Chem!PAHmodel!

Acknowledgements  Leading  Technology  and  Policy  Ini+a+ve,  MIT  NSF  Atmospheric  Chemistry  Program  Grant  #1053648  NSF  Office  of  Polar  Programs  Grant  #1203526  Shiliang  Wu,  Michigan  Tech  Eric  Leibensperger,  SUNY  Plaisburgh  The  Selin  Group,  MIT    

Related  literature:  PAH  model  descrip+on  and  evalua+on:  

 Friedman  and  Selin.  2012.  Long-­‐range  atmospheric  transport  of  Polycyclic  Aroma+c  Hydrocarbons:  A  global  3-­‐D  model    analysis  including  evalua+on  of  Arc+c  sources.  Environ.  Sci.  Technol.  46:9501.  

 2004  (present)  PAH  emissions:    

 Zhang  and  Tao.  2009.  Global  atmospheric  emission  inventory  of  PAHs  for  2004.  Atmos.  Environ.  43:812.      Future  PAH  vehicle  emissions:    

 Shen  et  al.  2011.  Global  +me  trends  in  PAH  emissions  from  motor  vehicles.  Atmos.  Environ.  45:2067.    Projec+ons  of  energy  use:    

 Interna+onal  Energy  Agency.  2010  and  2011.  “World  Energy  Outlook.”    Projec+ons  of  wildfire  index  changes:    

 Liu  et  al.  2009.  Trends  in  global  wildfire  poten+al  in  a  changing  climate.  Forest  Ecol.  Manag.  259:685.    Malevsky-­‐Malevich  et  al.  2008.  An  assessment  of  poten+al  change  in  wildfire  ac+vity  in  the  Russian  boreal  forest  zone    induced  by  climate  warming  during  the  twenty-­‐first  century.  ClimaDc  Change.  86:463.  

 Methods  for  par+cle  and  oxidant  concentra+on  projec+ons:  

 Wu  et  al.  2008.  Effects  of  200-­‐2050  changes  in  climate  and  emissions  on  global  tropospheric  ozone  and  the  policy-­‐relevant    background  surface  ozone  in  the  United  States.  J.  Geophys.  Res.  113:D18312.    Streets  et  al.  2004.  On  the  future  of  carbonaceous  aerosol  emissions.  J.  Geosphys.  Res.  109:D24212.    Pye  et  al.  2009.  Effect  of  changes  in  climate  and  emissions  on  future  sulfur-­‐nitrate-­‐ammonium  aerosol  levels  in  the  United    States.  J.  Geophys.  Res.  114:D01205  

Image  credits:    Eric  DeRienzo    Mark  Thiessen