Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Infrastructure in BrazilChallenges and Opportunities
Marcos Ludwig
Latin American Infrastructure Forum 2017
23 May 2017 – Sofitel Hotel Melbourne
BrazilKey facts and figures
8,515,767 km²
• 5th largest country in the world
• Largest in South America = 47%
• Largest in the Southern Hemisphere
• Largest contiguous territory in the Americas
207,501,000
• 5th largest population in the world
• Largest in South America = 50%
US$2.14 trillion
• 9th largest nominal GDP in the world*
• Largest in South America = 53%
* IMF – World Economic Outlook (April 2017)
Brazil / Latin AmericaPopulation Total (1985-2015)
The World Bank <http://data.worldbank.org/>
1985 2015
405 million LATIN AMERICA & CARIBBEAN 633 million
137 million BRAZIL 208 million
77 million MEXICO 127 million
31 million COLOMBIA 48 million
30 million ARGENTINA 43 million
Brazil / Latin AmericaGDP Nominal, current US$ (1985-2015)
The World Bank <http://data.worldbank.org/>
1985 2015
752 billion LATIN AMERICA & CARIBBEAN 5,349 billion
223 billion BRAZIL 1,804 billion
184 billion MEXICO 1,144 billion
88 billion ARGENTINA 585 billion
35 billion COLOMBIA 292 billion
16 billion CHILE 241 billion
17 billion PERU 189 billion
Taking a closer lookGDP growth rate (2010-2013)
IMF; Brazil’s Central Bank (BACEN) Roberto Stuckert Filho/Presidência da República (2011); Agência Brasil (2012)
Election
year
Taking a closer lookGDP growth rate (2010-2013)
IMF; Brazil’s Central Bank (BACEN) Fernando Souza/Agência O Dia (2013); Bloomberg
Social
unrest
Election
year
Taking a closer lookGDP growth rate (2010-2014)
IMF; Brazil’s Central Bank (BACEN) Reuters (2014), Associated Press (2014)
Car Wash,
World Cup,
Election year
Election
year
Social
unrest
Taking a closer lookGDP growth rate (2010-2016)
IMF; Brazil’s Central Bank (BACEN) Juca Varella/Agência Brasil; Fabio Pozzebom/Agência Brasil
Election
year
Impeachment,
new administration
Car Wash,
World Cup,
Election year
Social
unrest
“A rebound in confidence”GDP growth rate (2010-2016, *2017-2020 est.)
IMF; Brazil’s Central Bank (BACEN)
Election
year
Social
unrest
Impeachment,
new administration
Election
year
Car Wash,
World Cup,
Election year
Quote from the World Bank Group, Global Economic Prospects: January 2017
Fight against corruptionPolitical uncertainty today, a better country tomorrow
CCJ/Federal Senate; Supreme Court; Ag. Brasil
LAVA JATOOperation Car Wash
155 plea bargains
139 convictions, totaling 1,415 years of jail time
1,434 procedures (warrants, prison orders)
183 requests of international cooperation
Reimbursement requests totaling R$38.1 billion,
of which R$6.4 billion related to bribery payments
Doing the homeworkStructural reforms promoted by the federal government
•Public spending ceiling
• Investment Partnerships Program (PPI)
2016-2H
• Middle school
• Social security
• Labour laws
• Renewal of concessions, new auctions
• Port decree
2017-1H
•Tax laws
•Bankruptcy & insolvency
•Regulatory agencies
•Political (electoral system)
2017-2H
Indicative list based on official sources and statements published on the Brazilian press
Infrastructure gapsLow quality, low spending
McKinsey Global Institute, Bridging Global Infrastructure Gaps (June 2016)
Infrastructure gapsFar from the trendline, worse than fellow BRICs
McKinsey Global Institute, Bridging Global Infrastructure Gaps (June 2016)
Investment Partnerships Program (PPI)
1Concessions will be conducted under
maximum technical rigor
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
All auction notices will be published in
Portuguese and English
Focus will be on improving services to
the people and the productive sector
All contracts will have clear indicators
so as to improve legal certainty
Actual meaning of State bodies will be
restored to the regulatory agencies
Auction notices will only be released
after public debate and endorsement
by the Federal Court of Auditors (TCU)
Minimum term between the auction
notice and the bid will be of 100 days
Concessions will only be granted to
projects with environmental feasibility
The long-term financing model will
change
Existing concessions will remain
committed to ensuring balanced
projects
Brazil’s federal government, Projeto Crescer <http://www.projetocrescer.gov.br/the-10-guidelines1/>
The 10 Guidelines
Investment Partnerships Program (PPI)
Brazil’s federal government, Projeto Crescer <http://www.projetocrescer.gov.br/the-10-guidelines1/>
Auctioned
AIRPORT CONCESSIONS (4)
SECTOR Airport
ASSET Brownfield
TYPE Common concession
INVESTMENT US$1.2 billion
AGENCIES ANAC, Ministry of Transportation
TERM 25 – 30 years
Auctioned on March 16, 2017
Investment Partnerships Program (PPI)
Brazil’s federal government, Projeto Crescer <http://www.projetocrescer.gov.br/the-10-guidelines1/>
Auctioned POWER TRANSMISSION LINES (35 LOTS)
SECTOR Power Transmission Lines
ASSET Greenfield (7,358 km)
TYPE Common concession
INVESTMENT US$4.2 billion
AGENCIES Aneel, Ministry of Mines and Energy
TERM 30 years
Auctioned on April 24, 2017
Investment Partnerships Program (PPI)
Brazil’s federal government, Projeto Crescer <http://www.projetocrescer.gov.br/the-10-guidelines1/>
Extensions EARLY EXTENSION OF RAIL CONCESSIONS (5)
SECTOR Railroad
ASSET Brownfield, greenfield
TYPE Common concession
INVESTMENT US$8.0 billion
AGENCIES ANTT, Ministry of Transportation
TERM 30 years
Investment Partnerships Program (PPI)
Brazil’s federal government, Projeto Crescer <http://www.projetocrescer.gov.br/the-10-guidelines1/>
In Progress
SOUTH INTEGRATION HIGHWAY
SECTOR Highway
ASSET Brownfield
TYPE Common concession (468 km)
INVESTMENT US$2.5 billion
AGENCIES ANTT, Ministry of Transportation
TERM 30 years
Investment Partnerships Program (PPI)
Brazil’s federal government, Projeto Crescer <http://www.projetocrescer.gov.br/the-10-guidelines1/>
In Progress
MINERAL EXPLORATION RIGHTS OF CPRM
SECTOR Mining
ASSET Brownfield
TYPE Exploratory concession rights (new)
INVESTMENT -
AGENCIES DNPM, Ministry of Mines and Energy
PROJECTS Miriri (PB/PE): phosphate
Palmeirópolis (TO): copper, lead, zinc
Candiota (RS): coal
Bom Jardim de Goiás (GO): copper
Investment Partnerships Program (PPI)
Brazil’s federal government, Projeto Crescer <http://www.projetocrescer.gov.br/the-10-guidelines1/>
In Progress
GENERAL CARGO TERMINAL – PORT OF ITAQUI
SECTOR Ports
ASSET Greenfield
TYPE Common concession
INVESTMENT US$62.6 million
AGENCIES ANTAQ, Ministry of Transportation
TERM 25 years
Investment Partnerships Program (PPI)
Brazil’s federal government, Projeto Crescer <http://www.projetocrescer.gov.br/the-10-guidelines1/>
In Progress
NORTH-SOUTH RAILROAD (EF-151)
SECTOR Railroad
ASSET Brownfield
TYPE Subconcession (1,537 km)
INVESTMENT US$234.5 million
AGENCIES ANTT, Ministry of Transportation
TERM 35 years
Sources of FinancingBNDES Loans vs Infra Debentures (2012-2017*)
BNDES; ANBIMA; Central Bank of Brazil (BACEN)
90%
92%
94%
96%
98%
100%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017*
BNDES Disbursements Infra Debentures
*Year to date (April/2017)
156
190.4 187.8
135.9
88.3
21.4
1.1
4 5
5
4.4
1.3
0
50
100
150
200
250
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017*
BNDES Disbursements Infra Debentures
(in BRL billion)
Selic rate
TJLP rate
See you in Brazil!
Marcos Ludwig
Latin American Infrastructure Forum 2017
23 May 2017 – Sofitel Hotel Melbourne
Exports from Brazil21st largest exporter in the world
AJG Simoes, CA Hidalgo. The Economic Complexity Observatory: An Analytical Tool for Understanding the Dynamics of Economic Development
Workshops at the Twenty-Fifth AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence (2011), in: <http://atlas.media.mit.edu/> (data from 2015)
US$196 billionTotal exports:
Imports into Brazil26th largest importer in the world
US$170 billionTotal imports:
AJG Simoes, CA Hidalgo. The Economic Complexity Observatory: An Analytical Tool for Understanding the Dynamics of Economic Development
Workshops at the Twenty-Fifth AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence (2011), in: <http://atlas.media.mit.edu/> (data from 2015)
