Infra 2009 - Apresentação Michael Meagher - The Development and Perspective of China Wind Power

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The Development andThe Development and

Perspective ofPerspective of

China Wind PowerChina Wind PowerLi Junfeng

Energy Research Institute & CREIAAt DTU Campus Lyngby, DenmarkJanuary 14-15, 2009

Workshop on Sustainable Energy



Contents National Wind Power ResourceNational Wind Power Resource

The Development of Wind PowerThe Development of Wind Power

The Influence of PRC Renewable EnergyThe Influence of PRC Renewable Energy

Law to Wind Power DevelopmentLaw to Wind Power Development

The Obstacles in Wind Power DevelopmentThe Obstacles in Wind Power Development

The Perspective of Wind PowerThe Perspective of Wind Power

DevelopmentDevelopment The Proposals for Wind Power DevelopmentThe Proposals for Wind Power Development



National Wind Power

Resource There are

discrepancy

betweendifferentinstitutions forevaluation ofwind powerresource inmethodologyand results.

It still indicatesthat the windresource in

China isabundant.

GW

253300

1,400

750

600

2,000

150

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

2nd Resource Census 3rd Resource Census UNEP Calculate CAS Geographical

Institution

Estimated by Ocean

Scheme

Land Sea



National Wind Power Resource

Theoretical reserves of more than 4,000GW

above 10m height with technicallyexploitable reserve of 300GW. The practicaldevelopment area is approximate 200,000km2

Based on current technology, over 50m level,it requires 3-5 MW wind turbine to cover

1km2. With 200,000 km2 development landarea available in China, the total installedonshore wind capacity can probably reach600~ 1,000GW.

According to the China Coastal Zone

and Tideland Resource InvestigationReport, the sea area of 0-20m offcoastline is around 157,000 km2

Assuming 10% to 20% of the totalamount of sea surface used, the total

offshore wind capacity can reach100~200GW.

Onshore Resource

Conclusion： Abundant wind power resource in China

Great development potential

A key constituent in future energy structure

Offshore Resource



The Development of Wind Power

Status



Wind Power Concession

Projects In order to scale up wind power industry, the

government apply concession model and hasapproved four rounds of wind power concessionprojects with 35 projects (8,850MW) open for tender The government select the winner though public tender, with lowest on grid tariff bidder

likely to be awarded the contract. (In 2005, they revised the appraisal rules, in whichthe weight of tariff bided was reduced from 40% to 25% in 2006. The fifth round oftender in 2007 is further modified with the most close to average bidding price scoringhighest ( both the highest and lowest tariff bidders are excluded).

The duration of concession: 25 years

Provincial power grid company needs to sign the off-take contract and purchase the

entire electricity from wind power projects The price difference between conventional power and wind power will be allotted within

the provincial grid. (allotted within national grid since 2006 )

The tariff structure is divided into two-phase with 30,000 operating hrs as the milestone.



Wind tariff in china



Provisions and Regulations inWind Power

National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) issued “Regulations on Power Generation from Renewable Energy Sources”

“Renewable Power Generation Tariff and Cost Allotment Measure - Provisional”

“Renewable Power Tariff Top-ups Administration Rules”

“Renewable Energy Industry Development Guidance Catalogue”

Issued middle and long term renewable energy development goal

Deployed wind resource census

Ministry of Finance issued “Renewable Energy Development Special Funds Interim Measures”

State Electricity Regulatory Commission issued “Gridcos Mandatory Purchase of Renewable Energy Electricity Regulation”



Other Policy Guidelines Besides the above general development provisions and

regulations for renewable energy, there are other specific noticesin this field

“The Requirements of Wind Power Construction and ManagementNotice”

“The Implementation Guidelines to Promote Wind Power Industry”

“Wind Power Plant Construction and the Environmental ProtectionInterim Measures”

“State Grid Corporation Plant Access System Preparatory WorkManagement Approach”



Wind Power Development:

current status

Expanded Wind Power Market

Increasing Investment in Wind Power

Strengthening Manufacture Capacity ofWind Power Equipments



Expanded Wind Power Market

6.04 GWCapacity6500UnitsTotal

0.81Hongkong22296188Jiangsu11

1.51Tianjin21296.7471Guangdong10

1.71Hunan20297.6418Xinjiang9

32Henan19346.2376Ningxia8

54Shanxi18369.2315Shandong7

8.718Hainan17376.1428Heilongjiang6

1416Hubei16408.1428Gansu5

2921Shanghai15509.3616Liaoning4

4769Zhejiang14531.2514Hebei3

5033Beijing13628624Jilin2

233.8178Fujian121585.51736Inner Mongolia1

MWUnitsRegionNo.MWUnitsRegionNo.





Cheaper manufacture in China



Major suppliers in China Gold Wind（Xin Jiang Urumchi）Sinovel Wind

（Liao Ning Da Lian） Dong Fang Electric（Si Chuan Mian Zu）Ming Yang Electric（Guang Dong Zhong Shan） Hara XEMC Wind Power（Hu Nan Xiang Tan）……

Chong Qing Wind Power Equipment（Chong Qing) Shanghai Electric

（Shanghai） Zhejiang Windey Wind Generating Engineering（Zhe Jiang Hang Zhou） CRE Wind（Liao Ning Sheng Yang） Harbin Power（He Long Jiang Harbin）……

Gamesa、 Vestas、GE、Suzlon、RE Power、Acciona、NordexSKF、FAG、LM、XREB

D o

m e s t i c I n v e s t m e n t

F o

r e i g n

I n v e s t m e n t

There are currently more than 40 wind turbine generator manufacturers in China, including 4 foreign-

invested enterprises , 7 joint-venture companies and over 20 domestic manufacturers.



Major suppliers in China Production scaling is doing well and many large volume-

producers emerge, such as Gold Wind, Sinovel Wind, DongFang Electric, Zhejiang Windey Wind Generating Engineering;

Several small capacity manufacturers are in trial production

stage, such as Chong Qing Wind Power Equipment, CREWind ,Ming Yang Electric;

Under R&D and prototyping stage: Shanghai Electric, Hara

XEMC Wind Power, Harbin Power



Major suppliers in China Domestic companies still lag behind in technology, production

scale and market share, however, it takes off and shows rapidgrowth recently

In 2005, domestic wind turbine manufacturers took approximate 30%

of domestic market share, over 90% of which was provided by GoldWind (Xin Jiang) ;

In 2006, the domestic producers’ market share was up 10% yoy to41.2% (45% including the joint-venture companies. The largestdomestic supplier—— Gold Wind saw its capacity rise sharply by

three times than 2005;

in 2007, Goldwind, Sinovel Wind, Dongfang Electric ranked as thefirst three

In 2008 Sinovel, Goldwind and Dongfang Ranked the first three lage



Major suppliers in China Nanjing High-speed Gear Box Factory（Gear Box）

Chong Qing Gear Box（Gear Box） ……

Wafangdian Bearing Co., Ltd. (Bearings)

Luoyang Bearing Group（Bearings） Zhejiang Tianma Bearing Co., Ltd（Bearings）

Beijing Kono Albert Chan Electrical Technology Co., Ltd（Electric Control System） XJ Electric Co., Ltd（Electric Control System) ……

Yongji Xinshisu Electric Equipment Co., Ltd（Generator） Lanzhou Electric Corporation（Generator） ……

Zhonghang (Baoding) Huiteng Wind Power Equipment Co., Ltd（Rotor Blade） Lianyungang Zhongfu Lianzhong Composites Group Co., Ltd（ Rotor Blade）

Tian Jing LM（ Rotor Blade） ……



The Obstacles in Wind Power Development

Tariff Setting

“On-grid tariff of wind power areset by tender process.” No clear operation procedure

Tariffs set too low as a result of bidding

Irrational bidding behaviors by some

developer who take “land grabbing” asthe first priority

Grid Construction and Plan

Grid construction andmanagement lags behind wind

power development

North, Northwest, Northeast

Eastern Coastal Area

The code for wind power plantconnecting to electricity grid is stillnot standardized

Wind power construction is notsynchronized with gird networkconstruction plan



The Perspective of Wind Power -FY2010

The newly installed wind capacity was 1,333MW in

2006, 3400 MW for 2007 and 5500 for 2008. The 10GW target for 2010 has been reached.

The domestic wind power equipment business has

been established. The quality and class of productsare improving. The production capacity is expanding.

It is reasonable to expect a total accumulatedinstalled capacity of 25-30 GW, even more in 2010,with a annual increased about 10 GW based onChina’s wind power equipment manufacturing

capacity.



The Perspective of WindPower -FY2020 Objective: total installed capacity of 2020 is amount to 80 to 150

GW; Compare to 28.3% of global wind power average growth rate in

last decade

If the development of wind power industry goes well with installed capacitygrowing by 4GW p.a, or 25% CAGR, the total Installed wind capacity can

reach 70 GW by 2015,

If the development of wind power industry goes well with installed capacity

growing by 15 GW p.a, the total Installed wind capacity can reach 150 GWby 2020

At that time, the wind power installed capacity will account for nearly 10% oftotal power capacity or 5 % output.



Development review of 2020



The Perspective of Wind Power -

FY2030

Wind power would become competitive to other source of power

generating capacity on cost basis since 2020

If the annual capacity growth reach over 15GW, or 30% of nationalcapacity added, the total accumulated installed capacity can reach

400 GW.

At that time, the wind power installed capacity will account for over20 % of total power capacity and meet 10 % of national power

demand in China.



The Perspective of Wind Power -FY2050

After 2030, most hydro power resource will be fully utilized. With

attractive social and environmental benefit, the wind power willbecome the key component in power generating in China

If wind power capacity increases 15GW per annually, or 5~7% p.a,

(GWEC estimated the global annual growth rate at roughly 2%), thetotal wind power installed capacity can reach to 600 GW in 2050;

The wind power will be the third largest generating capacity after

Thermal and Hydro power



The Perspective of Wind Power

2.9%156004.1%154504.8%154002050

4.1%154505.2%123007.6%132502040

7.2%153009.9%1118014.9%81202030

14.9%1515018.5%87014.9%6.4302020

24.6%107524.6%43024.6%2.4152015

76.1%52540.0%1.851017.8%1.3552010

105.0%2.6

105.0%2.6

105.0%1.332.62006

72%1.262005

%GWGW%GWmillion

kW%GWGW

Growthrate

Incremental

Growthrate

Incremental

Growthrate

Incremental

per

year

per

year

Capacity

per

year

per

year

Capacity

per

year

per

year

Capacity

Development Plan (High)Development Plan

(Medium)Development Plan (Low)

Year



The Proposal for Wind PowerDevelopment

Improve Policy System

Electricity Tariff Favorable Tax Treatment

Capital Investment

Grid Construction and Planning Enhance Management System

Public Technology R&D Platform, etc

Large wind farm combine with distributed wind farm Planned 6 large wind farms with 10 GW

Small one all over the country, in 2008, about 25 regions withwind (total 34)



Thank You!Tel: +86 10 63908465Fax: +86 10 63908479

Email: [email protected]: www.creia.net

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Infra 2009 - Apresentação Michael Meagher - The Development and Perspective of China Wind Power