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Information Systems for Managerial Decision Support
Introduction
Information, Decisions, and Management
Decision Support Technologies
OLAP and DSS
DSS Applications in Corporate Functional Management
Practitioners of Management Science
Achieving Success with Analytics
$ROI
Raw Data
Standard Reports
Ad Hoc Reports and OLAP
Descriptive Modeling
Predictive Modeling
Data Information Intelligence
Optimization Modeling
Decision Support
What happened?
What will happen?
What is the best that could happen?
Decision Guidance
Why did it happen?Why did it happen?
Where are we?
3
The Web
Databases
SQL
Data
HTML or XML Data
Automated Data Acquisition using VBA
Decision Modeling with Excel
HTTP Request
Data Models
Changes in the Analytical Landscape
Analytical Modelers
Management
IT Ops
Data Integrators
Business
Governance
STAKEHOLDERSNow…
CustomerService
Retail
Logistics
Promotions
OPERATIONS TARGET
Customers
Stockholders
Introduction Management
– A process by which organizational goals are achieved through the use of resources
Resources: Inputs Goal Attainment: Output Measuring Success:
Productivity = Outputs / Inputs
Introduction cont. Management is decision making The manager is a decision maker Now fast changing, complex environment Factors affecting decision making
o Technology/Information/Computerso Structural Complexity/Competitiono International Markets/Political Stabilityo Consumerism/Changes, Fluctuations
Information, Decisions, and Management
Informationo Type of information required is directly related to the
level of management and the amount of structure in the decision situation
Levels of managerial decision-makingo Strategic Managemento Tactical Managemento Operational Management
Strategic Management Monitor the strategic performance of the organization and its
overall direction in the political, economic, and competitive business environment
Unstructured Decisionso Not possible to specify in advance most of the decision
procedures to followo Decision maker must provide judgement, evaluation and
insights to a novel, important and nonroutine-type decision
Require more summarized, ad hoc, unscheduled reports, forecasts, and external intelligence to support their more unstructured planning and policy-making responsibilities
Tactical Management Allocate resources and monitor the performance of their
organizational subunits, including departments, divisions, process teams, and other workgroups
Semistructured Decisionso Some decision procedures can be prespecified, but not
enough to lead to a definite recommended decisiono Only part of the decision has a clear-cut answer provided
by an accepted procedure
Require information from both the operational level and the strategic level to support their semistructured decision making responsibilities
Operational Management Direct the use of resources and the performance of tasks
according to procedures and established budgets and schedules
Structured Decisionso The procedures to follow when a decision is needed can be
specified in advanceo Involves a repetitive and routine-type decision where there
is a definite procedure to follow
Require more prespecified internal reports emphasizing detailed current and historical data comparisons that support day-to-day operations
Decision Support Technologies Management Information Systems (MIS) Decision Support Systems (DSS) Enterprise (Executive) Information Systems (EIS) Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) and Supply-
Chain Management (SCM) Knowledge Management Systems Expert Systems (ES) Artificial Neural Networks (ANN)
OLAP Online Analytical Processing (OLAP)
o A capability of management, decision support, and executive information systems that enables managers and analysts to interactively examine and manipulate large amounts of detailed and consolidated data from many perspectives
Basic analytical operations includeo Consolidation: aggregation of datao Drill-Down: display detail datao Slicing & Dicing: produce different views from
database
Decision Support Systems Computer-based information systems that provide
interactive information support to managers during the decision-making process
DSS use:o Analytical modelso Specialized databaseso Decision makers’ own insights and judgementso Interactive, computer-based modeling processes to support the
making of semistructured and unstructured decisions by individual managers
o Data mining analysis of large pools of data to find patterns and rules that can be used to guide decision making and predict future behavior
Decision Support Systems Using a DSS involves four basic types of modeling activities:
o What-if Analysisan end user makes changes to variables, or relationships among variables, and observes the resulting changes in the value of other variables
o Sensitivitiy Analysisa special case of what-if analysis—the value of only one variable is changed repeatedly, and the resulting changes on other variables are observed.
o Goal Seeking Analysissets a target value for a variable and then repeatedly changes other variables until the target value is achieved
o Optimization Analysisthe goal is to find the optimum value for one or more target variables, given certain constraints
DSS Applications
According to a recent survey, computer-based DSS are widely applied in both profit making and non-profit organizations. In corporate functional management fields, production and operations management contain the largest number of application articles, followed by management information systems, marketing, finance, strategic management and multifunctional areas. The following website list some of the important application examples from the survey.
http://cstl-hcb.semo.edu/eom/ORINSIHT.HTM
Management Science
The Problem Solving Process
Identify Problem
Formulate & Implement
ModelAnalyze Model
Test Results
Implement Solution
unsatisfactoryresults
A field of study that uses computers, statistics, and mathematics to analyze and solve business problems
Computer Model: A set of mathematical relationships and logical assumptions implemented in a computer as an abstract representation of a real-world object or phenomenon
A Generic Mathematical Model
Y = f(X1, X2, …, Xk)
Y = dependent variable (a bottom line performance measure)
Xi = independent variables (inputs having an impact on Y)
f(.) = function defining the relationship between the Xi and Y
Where:
Categories of Mathematical Models
Prescriptive known, known or under LP, Networks, IP,
well-defined decision maker’s CPM, EOQ, NLP,
control GP, MOLP
Predictive unknown, known or under Regression Analysis,
ill-defined decision maker’s Time Series Analysis,
control Discriminant Analysis
Descriptive known, unknown or Simulation, PERT,well-defined uncertain Queueing,
Inventory Models
Model Independent OR/MS
Category Form of f(.) Variables Techniques