Information and Communication Technologies. Emerging Global
Trends in Convergence Lattakia City, SYRIA October 30 th and 31st,
2010
Slide 2
Agenda Emerging Industry Trends The Role of Video in Broadband
Application to the industry in Middle East North Africa.
Slide 3
Emerging Industry Trends Digital Content Mobile Platform IP
Network Cable, satellite Platform DSL, FTTH Platform iPhone iPad
Netbook Smartph one Desktop,laptop Television Set Mobile TV
Users
Slide 4
Emerging industry trends Rapid expansion in telecommunications
networks Full mobile network coverage Multiple access networks
(GSM, 3G, WiMax, 4G/LTE, copper/DSL, LLU operators, FTTx, cable
modems, satellite) Rapid broadband take-up Upgrading fixed wireline
access networks: fiber closer to the home, integrated IP
Slide 5
Emerging industry trends Rapid transition to digital television
Terrestrial, cable and satellite digital television Digital
switchover Digital Content Delivered on Multiple Platforms Same
content is delivered on digital television, internet, mobile
telephony, mobile television Handset development Netbooks, iPhone,
iPad, Smartphones
Slide 6
The emergence of video in broadband Some estimates on
broadband-related growth (CISCO): Web conference is expected to
grow 180 times between 2011 and 2014 Ambient video (localised
user-generated video streams and applications) Over 90% of IP
traffic will be video in 2014 Source: CISCO Video Networking
Index
Slide 7
The emergence of video in broadband Internet video will
approach 40 percent of consumer Internet traffic by the end of
2010, (excluding P2P video). The sum of all forms of video (TV,
video on demand, Internet, and P2P) will continue to exceed 91
percent of global consumer traffic by 2014. Advanced Internet video
(3D and HD) will increase 23-fold between 2009 and 2014. Video
communications traffic will increase 23 times from 2009 to 2014.
Real-time video is growing in importance. By 2014, Internet TV will
be over 8 percent of consumer Internet traffic, and ambient video
will be an additional 5 percent of consumer Internet traffic. Live
TV has gained substantial ground in the past few years. Globally,
P2P TV is now over 280 petabytes per month. Video-on-demand (VoD)
traffic will double every two and a half years through 2014.
Consumer IPTV and CATV traffic will grow at a 33 percent CAGR
between 2009 and 2014. Source: CISCO Video Networking Index
Slide 8
Implications for the Middle East and North Africa IP traffic in
the Middle East and Africa will reach 1 exabyte per month by 2014
at a rate of 45 percent. Monthly Internet traffic in the Middle
East and Africa will generate 182 million DVDs worth of traffic, or
727 petabytes per month. Web-based video conferencing will grow
180-fold from 2009-2014. Web- based video conferencing is the
fastest growing sub-category (183 percent CAGR from 2009-2014)
within the business portion of the Cisco VNI Forecast. HD video
conferencing will account for over half (57 percent) of business
video conferencing traffic in 2014, up from 31 percent in 2009.Over
one-half of business videoconferencing traffic will travel over the
Internet by 2014. Business IP traffic will grow fastest in the
Middle East and Africa. Business IP traffic in the Middle East and
Africa will grow at a CAGR of 30 percent, a faster pace than the
global average of 21 percent. 8 Source: CISCO Video Networking
Index
Slide 9
Implications for the Middle East and North Africa 9
200920102011201220132014CAGR 2009-2014 By Sub-Segment (PB per
Month) File Sharing4,0915,0756,1977,4929,12511,34023% Internet
Video 2,7764,7257,71811,02614,83819,46848% Internet Video to TV
1072637111,5022,6864,075107%
Web/Data1,6882,2733,0063,9304,9336,13429% Video Calling
8312819928440759948% Online Gaming 638612016722630737%
VoIP1221341411441451464% Source: CISCO Video Networking Index
Slide 10
Customers are taking up broadband 3G/4G should be more
open
Slide 11
Customers are taking up broadband 3G/4G should be more open
Number of 2G mobile operators Number of 3G/4G operators
Slide 12
Wireless broadband is driving growth
Slide 13
Carlo Maria Rossotto MNA Regional Coordinator GICT Department,
Policy Division The World Bank [email protected]