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Influential Factors

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Influential Factors. Prevailing Market Conditions Cotton: 77 to 73 ¢ range ( 2009 +20 cents ) Corn: $4.35 ( 2009 -$0.15 ) Soybeans: near $10.00 ( 2009 UNC ) Cost of Production Crop Rotations Corn to Fuel Prices Weather. Influential Factors Cotton Futures Prices. Influential Factors. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: Influential Factors
Page 2: Influential Factors
Page 3: Influential Factors

Influential FactorsInfluential Factors• Prevailing Market Conditions

– Cotton: 77 to 73¢ range (2009 +20 cents)– Corn: $4.35 (2009 -$0.15)– Soybeans: near $10.00 (2009 UNC)

• Cost of Production

• Crop Rotations

• Corn to Fuel Prices

• Weather

Page 4: Influential Factors

45

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Cotton - Dec 09 Cotton - Dec 10

Influential FactorsInfluential Factors Cotton Futures PricesCotton Futures Prices

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Influential FactorsInfluential Factors

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Influential FactorsInfluential Factors

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Influential FactorsInfluential Factors

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Page 8: Influential Factors

Alabama 255 306 19.9 Florida 82 80 -2.7 Georgia 1,000 1,089 8.9 North Carolina 375 448 19.5South Carolina 115 130 12.7 Virginia 64 71 10.3

Southeast 1,891 2,123 +12.2

2010 Southeast Acreage2010 Southeast Acreage

2009 2010 % Actual Intended Change

Total may not add due to rounding.

Thousand Acres

Page 9: Influential Factors

Arkansas 520 522 0.4 Louisiana 230 233 1.1 Mississippi 305 362 18.7 Missouri 272 293 7.7 Tennessee 300 354 18.0

Mid-South 1,627 1,764 8.4

2010 Mid-South Acreage2010 Mid-South Acreage

2009 2010 % Actual Intended Change

Total may not add due to rounding.

Thousand Acres

Page 10: Influential Factors

Kansas 38 45 19.0 Oklahoma 205 259 26.3 Texas 5,000 5,414 8.3

Southwest 5,243 5,718 9.1

2010 Southwest Acreage2010 Southwest Acreage

2009 2010 % Actual Intended Change

Total may not add due to rounding.

Thousand Acres

Page 11: Influential Factors

Arizona 145 175 20.4 California 71 97 37.1 New Mexico 31 40 31.9

West 247 312 26.6

2010 West Acreage2010 West Acreage

2009 2010 % Actual Intended Change

Total may not add due to rounding.

Thousand Acres

Page 12: Influential Factors

Arizona 2 2 5.0 California 119 152 27.9 New Mexico 3 3 3.6 Texas 18 19 6.5

ELS 142 176 24.3

2010 ELS Acreage2010 ELS AcreageThousand Acres

2009 2010 % Actual Intended Change

Total may not add due to rounding.

Page 13: Influential Factors

Southeast 1,891 2,123 12.2Mid-South 1,627 1,764 8.4 Southwest 5,243 5,718 9.1 West 247 312 26.6

ALL UPLAND 9,008 9,916 10.1

ALL ELS 142 176 24.4

ALL COTTON 9,149 10,093 10.3

2010 U.S. Planting Intentions2010 U.S. Planting Intentions

2009 2010 % Actual Intended Change

Total may not add due to rounding.

Thousand Acres

Page 14: Influential Factors

U.S. Yields and AbandonmentU.S. Yields and Abandonment

* Olympic 5-Year National Average Abandonment Rate: 11.9%

** Olympic 5-Year National Average Yield: 819 lbs./harvested acre

0%

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00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09est.

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1,000Abandonment Yields

Lbs/Acre

Page 15: Influential Factors

U.S. Cotton ProductionU.S. Cotton ProductionMillion Bales

23.25 23.8921.59

19.21

12.8215.48

12.40

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Page 16: Influential Factors

Million Tons

8.20 8.177.35

6.59

4.30 4.18

5.23

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04 05 06 07 08 09 est. 10 for.

U.S. Cottonseed ProductionU.S. Cottonseed Production

*Average Seed-to-Lint Ratio: 1.43

Page 17: Influential Factors

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Cotton - Dec 10 Corn - Dec 10 Soybeans - Nov 10

Indexed Futures PricesIndexed Futures PricesRelative to January 4, 2010

IndexedPoint

Survey Period

Planting Decisions Finalized

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Page 18: Influential Factors