INFLUENCES ON VOTING PART ONE

Why do people vote the way they do?

AIMS OF PRESENTATION

This presentation looks at •The complex long term influences on voters, for example•Social class•Gender•Age •Race •Complementing this presentation is the presentation Influence of the Media

THE INFLUENCES ARE COMPLEX

There are many influences on voters in the UK. They are complex. They are changing. They are also inter-related, not separate.

We all have a social class. We all have a gender. We all have a race.

The media is also an influence. But there are many different types of media. And the different social classes access different kinds of media.

Let’s look at the different influences and come to some conclusions.

SOCIAL CLASS 2010 GENERAL ELECTION

Social Class CON (%) LAB (%) LIB DEM (%)

AB 39 26 29

C1 39 28 24

C2 37 29 22

DE 31 40 17

Voting by Social Class

Source: Ipsos MORI

Social class remains a key influence. Why?

SOCIAL CLASS

Up until the 1970s there was a clear two party system, with Labour seen to be championing the working class, the Conservatives the middle and upper classes.

Since then, the middle class has grown in size.

All the major parties now compete for the middle ground.

The FPTP system also encourages parties to ignore “safe” seats and win over floating voters in marginal constituencies. The Electoral Reform Society claims that 382 out of the 649 seats are so safe that any opposition vote is a wasted vote.

It is the party which wins the most seats throughout the country who wins UK General Elections. Not the party which wins the most votes.

But to win seats, you need to win votes.

There are 649 seats in total and each is a distinct geographical area. These areas are separated by social class. Richer people tend to live next to other richer people. Poorer people can only afford to live next to other poorer people.

So, many seats are either “safe” Conservative or “safe” Labour, depending on their social class composition. For example….

SOCIAL CLASS AND FIRST PAST THE POST

Safe Seat: Richmond (Yorkshire)

2010 Result

Votes % of vote

CON 33, 541 62.8

LD 10, 205 19.1

LAB 8, 150 15.3

GREEN 1, 516 2.8

Percentage of children living in poverty 9%

Average male life expectancy: 79.9

2010 Result

Votes % of vote

LAB 20, 100 68.3

SNP 4, 158 14.1

LD 2, 262 7.7

CON 1, 569 5.3

OTHERS 1, 320 3.4

Percentage of children living in poverty : 44%

Average male life expectancy: 68

Safe Seat: Glasgow North East

So while, average incomes have risen and we all own more material possessions than ever, the gap between rich and poor still exists. Indeed, it is growing.

This gap shows itself in a whole number of social/economic statistics in health, education, crime and housing.

Why should voting behaviour would be any different?

Voters tend to vote for the party which they feel represents their economic interest.

The sociologist Danny Dorling points out that it was voters in the best off constituencies which swung most firmly towards David Cameron.

SOCIAL CLASS STILL MATTERS

Labour continues to do best among poorer sections of the community in UK general elections.

But, a national aspect also enters the equation. In 2010, Scottish voters, perhaps seeing the General Election as a two horse race between Labour and Conservatives, returned Labour MPs with increased majorities. Labour won in even the most affluent areas, e.g. East Renfrewshire.

The Conservatives won just 1 seat in the whole of Scotland.

Jim Murphy romped home in affluent East RenfrewshirePamela Nash, Airdrie and Shotts is the youngest MP in the House of Commons.

THE SCOTTISH FACTOR

SOCIAL CLASS & SCOTLAND

A feature of the 2011 Scottish elections was the scale of Labour’s defeat in its traditional working class heartlands.

Labour’s vote fell everywhere, but its best result came in affluent Eastwood (9.7% increase) but Labour’s vote actually fell most heavily in areas of social deprivation. Labour lost “safe” seats such as Glasgow Shettleston and Kirkcaldy.

Labour won the Inverclyde by-election in June 2011, despite losing the same seat in the Scottish elections a month earlier. This may be further evidence of a “twin track” approach by some traditional Scottish Labour voters; voting Labour in UK elections where as Labour/Conservative contest is most likely but looking to the SNP for Scottish elections.

Frank McAveety (Lab, Shettleston) was just one of the many Labour MSPs in Traditional Labour seats who lost out in 2011 to the SNP

GENDER IS AN INFLUENCE TOO

Women used to have a strong attachment to the Conservatives.

In fact, if it wasn’t for the female vote, Labour probably would have won every post-war General Election up until 1979. Since then, their vote has been up for grabs. It is middle class women who are sought after though. Poor women, like poor men, tend to vote Labour.

So, meet those who are not so committed. “School Gate Mum”, for example.

School Gate Mum is the British version of the “Soccer Mums” found in the USA. They are working women who have demanding lives, balancing work and family responsibilities.

Women by class

CON LAB LIB DEM

AB 34 29 31

C1 39 28 25

C2 41 25 25

DE 29 45 19

The Conservatives won clear majorities among women who have a career, work or have higher disposable incomes. A vital demographic group.

Part of the Cameron agenda was for the Conservatives to have more female candidates and be more family friendly.

Did this work?

Importance of the female vote

2010 GENDER & SOCIAL CLASS

GENDER & MUMSNET

Mumsnet is an internet network that is becoming increasingly influential in politics. Ahead of the 2010 General election all three party leaders went out of their way to woo the influential, middle class female users of the Mumsnet forum by conducting online web chats and answering users questions.

Gordon Brown’s wife was the keynote speaker at Mumsnet’s 10 th birthday party. Alex Salmond got in on the act ahead of the 2011 Scottish Parliament elections, by taking part in a Mumsnet Q & A where he pledged to keep education and personal care for the elderly free in Scotland.

AGE

Traditionally, younger voters are more likely to support parties promising social change.

For some time, the Conservatives core vote has been among older, affluent voters. But, in 2010 the Conservatives promoted a more youthful identity.

Age CON LAB LD

18-24 30 31 30

25-34 35 30 29

35-44 34 31 26

45-54 34 28 26

55-64 38 28 23

65+ 44 31 16

The Conservatives did much better in 2010 among younger voters….while maintaining it’s core elderly vote.

AGE & 2010 ELECTION

RACE

Labour retains its popularity with black and Asian voters.

The Conservative Party has realised that if it is to win elections in the future it must win the votes or urban ethnic minorities.

There are now 11 black or Asian MPs. But most occupy safe seats in mostly white areas. Only 16% of ethnic minorities voted Conservative in 2010. Paul Uppal MP represents the kind of state educated, hard-working ethnic minority voter the Conservative Party has found it hard to win over.

RACE AND THE CONSERVATIVES

Conservative strategists feel the frustration as they do with Scottish voters.

Their policies are not unpopular (minority voters can be much less liberal on social issues than white voters, especially benefit fraud) but voting Conservative seems a cultural step too far. People from a Black Caribbean background, especially, still feel the Tories are hostile or indifferent towards them.

“They’re Conservatives but just don’t know it” is a common response.

Some Conservatives feel their party has to have a “Clause 4 moment” with minority voters, publicly disowning Norman Tebbit’s infamous “cricket test” and becoming more involved in anti-racist movements.

Runnymede Trust survey on race and voting