INFLUENCE OF LARGE SCALE WIND POWER AND INCREASED ENERGY SYSTEM FLEXIBILITY

ON THE OPTIMAL LONG-TERM POWER PLANT PORTFOLIO

Research Scientist Juha Kiviluoma, VTT

Senior Scientist Peter Meibom, Risø DTU

Correspondance: juha.kiviluoma@vtt.fi +358 (20) 722 6671

VTT TECHNICAL RESEARCH CENTRE OF FINLAND

GENERATION EXPANSION MODEL WITH A HEAT TWIST

• Balmorel (www.balmorel.com) is one of the few generation expansion models that handles wind power in hourly time scale

• It also includes heat production with CHP plants and heat boilers• We included heat pumps, electric heat boilers, and heat storages• Caveat: grid expansion costs not included• Also plug-in electric vehicles modelled, but with exogenous investment decision

VTT TECHNICAL RESEARCH CENTRE OF FINLAND

SUMMARY OF RESULTS

• A system with very large fraction of wind power competitive • If wind power costs comparatively low

• No grid constraints

• Flexibility from heat important

• Flexibility from heat more important for wind power integration than flexibility from electric vehicles

• Reducing CO2 emission dramatically seems to be rather inexpensive

• Methodological: modelling heat and power investments • With heat storages

• One year 2035 optimization with hourly time steps

• Nuclear and wind power most competitive, interesting dynamics• Smart charging and discharging of plug-in electric vehicles have a decreasing utility

for the system

• Has been submitted to Energy this year

VTT TECHNICAL RESEARCH CENTRE OF FINLAND

SOME ASSUMPTIONS

HighFuel LowFuel 2007 Interest rate 9.0 9.0 % CO2 cost 45 20 €/tCO2 Coal (CO) 3 2.1 2.2 €/GJ Natural gas (NG) 11 6 5.8 €/GJ Light oil (LO) 16 13 12.9 €/GJ Fuel oil (FO) 13 10 7.5 €/GJ Peat (PE) 2.8 2.8 2.3 €/GJ Industrial wood waste (WW) 0 0 €/GJ Forest residues (WR) 4.2 3.5 3.4 €/GJ Wood and straw (WO) 7.5 5.3 €/GJ Municipal waste (MW) 0 0 €/GJ Nuclear fuel (NU) 0.4 0.4 €/GJ

Region TWhElec demand FI_R 113.0

FI_R_Urban 6.6FI_R_Rural 14.9FI_R_Ind 42.5

Heat demandDistrict heating only

VTT TECHNICAL RESEARCH CENTRE OF FINLAND

SCENARIOS EXPLAINED

• Number in the scenario name: wind power investment cost €/kW

• OnlyPlugIn plug-ins have been enables, but heat measures not

• OnlyHeat only heat measures enabled

• HeatPlugIn both flexibility mechanisms included (heat and plug-ins)

• NoNuc No new nuclear allowed (there are some old plants)

VTT TECHNICAL RESEARCH CENTRE OF FINLAND

FLEXIBILITY FROM HEAT ENABLES A LARGE INCREASE IN WIND

-55 -45 -35 -25 -15 -5 5 15 25 35 45 55

Base700

Base900

OnlyPlugIn

OnlyHeat

HeatPlugIn700

HeatPlugIn800

HeatPlugIn900

Base Nuclear

Change in electricity compared to Base NoNuc [TWh] EL_HP

EL_HB

CO_CHP

CO_CON

PE_CHP

NG_CHP

NG_CON

Biomass

NU_Old

NU_New

Wind

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110

BaseNoNuc

No new nuclear base scenario electricity production [TWh]

VTT TECHNICAL RESEARCH CENTRE OF FINLAND

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

16

Net

ele

ctric

ity d

eman

d [G

W]

Elec demand

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

16

Net

ele

ctric

ity d

eman

d [G

W]

Elec demand

... - wind 65%

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

16

Net

ele

ctric

ity d

eman

d [G

W]

Elec demand

... - wind 65%

…+ 1M plug-ins

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

16

Net

ele

ctric

ity d

eman

d [G

W]

Elec demand... - wind 65%…+ 1M plug-ins…+ heat pumps

SYSTEM OPERATION AT VERY LARGE WIND POWER PENETRATION

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

16

Net

ele

ctric

ity d

eman

d [G

W]

Elec demand... - wind 65%…+ 1M plug-ins…+ heat pumps…+ elec. boilers

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

16

Net

ele

ctric

ity d

eman

d [G

W]

…+ elec. boilers

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

16

NG_old_condNG_OC_condNG_CHP_oldNG_CC_condNG_CHP_newWO_CHP_oldPE_CHP_oldHYDRO_oldMW_CHPWW_CHP_oldWW_CHP_newWR_CHP_oldNU_old

Selected two weeks (worst case)

HeatPlugIn700NoNuc (highest wind scenario)

VTT TECHNICAL RESEARCH CENTRE OF FINLAND

HOW WIND PRODUCTION AFFECTS HEAT PRODUCTION

Wind production (GW)

Hea

t pro

duct

ion

(GW

)

1 2 3 4

VTT TECHNICAL RESEARCH CENTRE OF FINLAND

AVERAGE COST OF ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION

• Average production cost (€/MWh), not average price• Heat measures -2 €/MWh, if fuel prices high• Plug-ins -1 €/MWh• Nuclear -2 – -4 €/MWh, depending on wind power investment cost

• CO2 emissions from 45 Mt to 2 – 20 Mt

Base OnlyHeat OnlyPlug HeatPlug 700 Nuclear 37.9 - - 34.7 800 Nuclear 38.4 36.0 37.3 35.6 900 Nuclear 38.8 - - 36.2 700 No nuclear 40.0 - - 36.0 800 No nuclear 41.5 39.1 39.8 37.7 900 No nuclear 42.8 - - 40.3 800 Low fuel prices Nuclear 33.6 - - 32.5

€/MWh