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1/10

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2/10

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3/10

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4/10

5

4

3

0R

2

1

0 0.5 1.5 2.5 3.51 2 3

CV = m/

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5/10

relative

probability

relative

probability

nvillages1 +

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6/10

7

6

4

proportio

ninfected,yi

/

3

1

0 10 30 5020 40 60

time, t(years)

5

2

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7/10

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

0.6

0.4

proportionimmun

etoinvadingstrain

0.3

0.1

01 2

= 1

= 0.75

= 0.25

= 0.5

R0 of endemic strain

0.5

0.2

3 4 5 76 8 9 10

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

0.6

0.4

probabilitythatinfectionisestablished

0.3

0.1

0 1 2 3.51.5

n= 1

n= 100

2

4

10

2.5 4

R0

0.5

0.2

30.5

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8/10

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9/10

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10/10