INEQUALITY OF OPPORTUNITIES AND THE ARAB SPRING

Melani Cammett

Political Science

Brown University

“Bread, Freedom, and Social Justice!”

Oil rents and mass uprisings

Mass Uprising

Yes No

Oil rents

High BahrainLibya

AlgeriaKuwaitOmanQatar

Saudi ArabiaUAE

Low

EgyptSyria*TunisiaYemen*

JordanMorocco

Increasing state repression

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8Empowerement right index (LHS)

Physical integrity Index (RHS)

Repression and Freedom Indices, Average of All Arab Countries Source: Cingranelli-Richards (CIRI) Human Rights Dataset, various years.

Post-Independence Human Development Achievements in the MENA: Infant Mortality

1960

1962

1964

1966

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

MENAEast AsiaLatin AmericaLow & middle incomeMiddle incomeSouth AsiaAfrica

The Rollback of the State

198219831984198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620070

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Government Spending in % of GDP Private Investment as % of GDP

Government Spending and Private Investment as a Percentage of GDP (Developing Arab Countries)

The Decline of the MENA State in Cross-Regional Perspective

MENA East Asia Latin America South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa

Middle Income

OECD0

5

10

15

20

25

19752005

General Government Final Consumption as a Percentage of GDP, Various Global Regions in Selected Years

MENA Fuel Subsidies in Cross-Regional Comparative Perspective

MENA Latin America Africa Asia (developing)Central & E. Europe0

5

10

15

20

25

Share of GDPShare of Govt. Revenues

Public Health Spending/GDP(Selected MENA countries)

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

EgyptJordanLebanonMoroccoSyriaTunisiaYemenTurkey

Public spending on health/total govt. revenues(Selected MENA countries)

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110

5

10

15

20

25

EgyptJordanMoroccoSyriaTunisiaYemen

Educational Performance(Selected countries)

Country Math Science

Egypt 391 408

Jordan 427 482

Lebanon 449 414

Morocco 381 402

Syria 395 452

Tunisia 420 445

Turkey 432 454

Bulgaria 464 470

Malaysia 474 471

(Source: TIMSS, 8th Grade Level, 2007)

2011 TIMSS Results (Math, 8th grade)

Insecurity & Risk Exposure in MENA Health Systems

Example: Out-of-Pocket Spending on Health/Total Spending on Health,

selected countries and regions (1995-2010)

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

EgyptTunisiaTurkeyMENA (developing)MENAMid. Inc.

Source: World Development Indicators, various years