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Inequality in Energy and Climate (Lack of Access)Nebojsa NakicenovicDeputy Director General and Deputy CEOInternational Institute for Applied Systems AnalysisFull Professor of Energy EconomicsVienna University of Technology
Alpbach-Laxenburg Reflection GroupEuropean Alpbach Forum – 26 August 2014
Two Faces of the Athropocene
Astronaut Sunita Williams
2012
NASA, 2012
2014 #4Nakicenovic
Two Faces of the Athropocene
>3 billion without access to clean cooking1.5 billion without access to electricity
2014 #5Nakicenovic
Energy Access
Energy Security
Climate Change
The Key Energy Challenges
Air PollutionHealth Impacts
2014 #6Nakicenovic
www.GlobalEnergyAssessment.org
GEA, 2012
2014 #7Nakicenovic
Austrian Panel on Climate Change
APCC, 2014
2014 #8Nakicenovic
0
20
40
60
80
100
0 20 40 60 80 100
cum
ulat
ive
cons
umpt
ion
(per
cent
)
cumulative population (percent)
equity line
GDP at PPP
electricity use
cell phones 2010
internet hosts 2009
Global Technology AccessLorenz Curves
Source: Grubler et al, 2012
2014 #9Nakicenovic
Source: Modi, 2011
Mobile Phones Charging
2014 #10Nakicenovic1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
Per
cent
age
of to
tal p
opul
atio
n w
ith e
lect
ricity
acc
ess
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
USA
Mexico
Brazil
India
South Africa
China
Sub‐Saharan Africa
South AsiaUSA Rural
Per
cent
age
of ru
ral p
opul
atio
n w
ith e
lect
ricity
acc
ess
Electrification
Source: Pachauri et al, 2012
2014 #11Nakicenovic1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
EJ
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200SavingsOther renewablesNuclearGasOilCoalBiomass
Limited BioenergyBio-CCS – “negative CO2
Nat-gas-CCSCoal-CCS
Global Primary Energy
Biomass
Coal
RenewablesNuclear
Oil
Gas
Source: Riahi et al, 2012
Energy savings (efficiency, conservation, and behavior)~40% improvement by 2030
~30% renewables by 2030
2014 #12Nakicenovic
Supply Technologies Cost Trends
Source: Grubler et al, 2012
2014 #13Nakicenovic
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
1.2%
Only Energy Security Only Air Pollution and Health Only Climate Change All Three Objectives
Total G
lobal Policy C
osts (201
0‐2030)
Added costs of ES and PH are comparatively low when CC is taken as an entry point
Energy Policy Costs (% GDP)
Source: McCollum, Krey, Riahi, 2012
