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Presented by: Jack Rozint, Mitchell InternationalTools Workgroup – Chuck Olsen, AirPro
OEM Procedures – Jake Rodenroth, asTechNew Technician – Darrell Amberson, LaMettry ’s
Emerging Technologies CommitteeIndustry Trends for ADAS & Safety Systems
Please indicate which stakeholder group you represent:1. Repairer
2. Insurance
3. OEM
4. Supplier
5. Salvage
6. Consultant
7. Education
8. Associations
9. Other
Leave this area for the response results
Audience Response Question:
In 5 years do you believe that the total U.S. Collision Repair Industry revenue will be:1. Higher by more than 10%
2. Higher by less than 10%
3. About the same
4. Lower by less than 10%
5. Lower by more than 10%
Leave this area for the response results
Audience Response Question:
2010Malibu LT
2018Malibu LT
Forward Collision Warning ‐ √Front & Rear Parking Sensors ‐ √Rear Backup Camera ‐ √Lane Departure Warning ‐ √Front Automatic Braking ‐ √Rear Cross Traffic Alert ‐ √Adaptive Cruise Control ‐ √Blind Spot Monitor ‐ √Pedestrian Detection ‐ √Aluminum Hood & Suspension Components ‐ √Number of Airbags 6 10
Convenience & Safety Advancements
Convenience and Safety Advancements2018 Chevy Malibu2010 Chevy Malibu
2010 Chevy Malibu LSExample Repair: Replace Front Bumper cover, absorber, rebar, grilles, assuming a center front end hit.
Total Cost = $1,651.74
2010 Chevy Malibu LSExample Repair: Replace Front Bumper cover, absorber, rebar, grilles, assuming a center front end hit.
Total Cost = $1,651.74
2018 Chevy Malibu LSSame repair but this vehicle is equipped with adaptive cruise control, front parking sensors, parallel parking sensors, and airbag sensors that require replacement after a collision.
Total Cost = $3,627.13
2018 Chevy Malibu LSSame repair but this vehicle is equipped with adaptive cruise control, front parking sensors, parallel parking sensors, and airbag sensors that require replacement after a collision.
Total Cost = $3,627.13
2010 Chevy MalibuAverage Repair Cost in 2012 :
$2,539.76
2016 Chevy MalibuAverage Repair Cost in 2018:
$4,098.94*Note – Does not adjust for CPI, Labor rates, Total Loss %, etc.Source: Mitchell
Cost of Scanning & Calibration
Source: Mitchell based on 30k estimate lines related to scanning
Database Challenges for Scanning
OEMs have very limited warranty times on diagnostics procedures
Time studies are challengingo Type of tool or system causes wide variation in timeo Time on same make/model varies based on # of installed ECU’s o What is included in time to scan?
Electronic repairs are complexo Time to researcho Time to troubleshoot
Windshield ReplacementAverage OEM ADAS Windshield: $1,300 ‐ $1,650*
6% of windshields replaced are equipped with some form of ADAS
This number is expected to double every year for the foreseeable future
Many manufacturers require the use of OEM glass which is contributing significantly along with calibration requirements to the rising cost of windshield replacements.
*Source: AAA
2018 Honda Accord Calibration Requirements
Lane Watch Camera SystemLane Watch Camera is removed/installed or replacedPassenger side rear view mirror is removed/installed or replaced Passenger side rear view mirror cover is removed/installed or replaced Passenger side door position is adjusted Passenger side door is removed/installed or replaced
BSI RadarAfter removing/Installing or replacing a BSI radar unit After repairing or replacing body panels where BSI radar unit mountsDo not repair bumper cover near BSI radar units
Multi Function Camera• If camera unit is removed/installed or replaced • If windshield is removed/installed or replaced • If LKAS or ACC lamps indicate a potential problem • If DTC’s indicate a problem with system • If vehicle is involved in a collision • If SRS is deployed• Only use OEM glass for replacement in vehicles equipped with multi‐purpose cameras
• Should be performed after wheel alignment if neededMillimeter Wave Radar• If Radar is removed/installed or replaced • If ACC warning light is illuminated • After collision damage to front end • After structural damage anywhere on the vehicle • After SRS deployment • Do not repair bumper cover near radar • May require “special” grill or emblem
Source: https://s3.amazonaws.com/culturesync‐syndicate/Guild21/Guild21_12‐14‐2017_ADASPresentation.pdf
2000 2010 2020Source: ETI/MARTEC
Audi zFAS Piloted Driving
Depending on the selected options, the zFAS receives the data to do this from up to five radar sensors, six cameras, twelve ultrasound sensors and the laser scanner
In an impending lateral collision at more than 25 km/h (15.5 mph), the suspension actuators of the optional Audi AI active suspension raise the body on the side exposed to the danger by up to 80 millimeters (3.1 in) within half a second. The other vehicle therefore hits the car in an even more impact‐resistant zone.
Electric Vehicle Collision Repair Considerations*
•Locate the hybrid/electric vehicle system components and identify if there is any damage to it.•Check to see what is behind the damaged panel, and if its wires, connectors, modules, and/or battery is damaged.•Understand service requirements for systems (e.g., cooling systems service/filling).•Select the correct air conditioning system service equipment and oils to exclude the systems contaminations.•Avoid towing/moving on road wheels to avoid possible hybrid or electric vehicle system damage or shock hazard.•Know if there are any structural variations.
* Source: I‐CAR
Percentage of Global Population Living in Urban Areas
Mobility as defined by the Oxford English Dictionary: The ability to move or be moved freely and easily
Mobility as defined by the Oxford English Dictionary: The ability to move or be moved freely and easily
36% of people believe autonomous driving will be the dominant form of transport in
10 years’ time.
Almost two thirds (65%) favor the idea of enhanced protection against thieves; e.g
fingerprint recognition technology
More than half (58%) currently do not trust
driverless cars.
Real time traffic information is the most popular (66%) anticipated feature of connected cars.
31% like the ability to personalize car features through software updates.
47% are currently concerned about driverless car hacking.
Source: Gemalto.com
Forecasted Industry Frequency and Severity
45
http://www.kpmg‐institutes.com/content/dam/kpmg/manufacturing‐institute/pdf/2017/collision‐parts‐whitepaper.pdf
United States Collision Repair Market
46
Source: Grand View Research
United States Collision Industry Revenue Growth
47
Source: IBIS World – showing 2018 industry revenue of $47B
Conclusions
There should be plenty of work for collision repairers in the coming years
Collision frequency is likely to continue to decline with ADAS advancements
Average repair cost is likely to continue to rise based on vehicle complexity
The type of repair work is changing:
Metal/Frame/Refinish => Electrical/Software
Modes of transportation are changing:
Private driven auto => Ride Share/Mobility as a Service
Liability for collisions will shift:
Man (the driver) => Machine (the auto pilot/autonomous system)