Industry Technology Roadmaps:

a focus on Cement Araceli Fernandez

COP 23, 12 November 2017

© IEA 2017

0

10

20

30

40

1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050

Gt C

O2

Thou

sand

s

2DS

“Getting to the top is optional. Getting down is mandatory.” Ed Viesturs

The global challenge: Climbing down the mountain

© IEA 2017

Remaining CO2 emissions from industry and transport in the 2DS by 2060 need to be compensated with

negative emissions to achieve net-zero energy sector by 2060 in the B2DS

-5.00

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

35.00

40.00

- 5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2014 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

GtC

O2

-5.00

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

35.00

40.00

- 5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2014 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

GtC

O2

Agriculture

Buildings

Industry

Transport

Power

Othertransformation

What’s the size of the climate challenge?

Global CO2 emissions - 2DS Global CO2 emissions - B2DS

© IEA 2017

How do we get there? – Technology Roadmaps

CONTEXT

• What is the status of the technology today?

• What alternative technology options there may be available in the long-run?

• What data are needed to establish baseline conditions?

DIAGNOSIS AND

MILESTONES

SETTING

• What analytic capabilities and tools are needed to evaluate technology

pathways?

• What technical expertise is needed to evaluate technology performance and

limitations?

PRIORITISING

ACTION

• Which regulators and policy leaders can provide insight on factors affecting

technology adoption?

• Which private entities will be key to technology success?

STAKEHOLDERS’

ENGAGEMENT

© IEA 2017

IEA Technology Roadmaps: a living library

2009 2011 2010 2012 2013 2014 2015 2017

Over 30 TRMs

developed

and 22

technologies

covered

© IEA 2017

The challenge of the sustainable transformation of industry

Significant transformations would be needed in all industrial sectors to achieve a 40% and 75%

reduction of direct CO2 emissions by 2060 compared to current levels

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2014 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

GtC

O2

Other industries

Pulp and paper

Aluminium

Chemicals andpetrochemicalsCement

Iron and steel

RTS total

2DS total

B2DS total

Global direct industrial CO2 emissions

Source: IEA Energy Technology Perspectives, 2017

© IEA 2017

Industry-related IEA Technology Roadmaps

23%

28%

11%

3%

1% 4%

2% 5% 4%

1% 1% 2%

15% Iron & steelChemical & petrochemicalNon-metallic mineralsNon-ferrous metalsTransport equipmentMachineryMining & quarryingFood & tobaccoPaper, pulp & printWood & wood productsConstructionTextile & leatherNon-specified (industry)

GLOBAL IRON & STEEL

ROADMAP

GLOBAL CEMENT ROADMAP

UPDATE

2009 2013 2018

Final industrial energy use, 2014 (EJ)

GLOBAL CEMENT REGIONAL CEMENT

GLOBAL CHEMICALS

SOURCE: IEA Energy Balance. Note: Iron & Steel includes blast furnaces and coke ovens. Chemicals & Petrochemicals includes petrochemicals feedstocks.

2019

© IEA 2017

Cement sector opportunities and challenges

Coal Oil Natural gasBiomass Waste Electricity

Energy-related CO2 Process CO2

Global cement sector indicators, 2014

Final energy use

(3rd industrial energy user) (2nd industrial coal use)

Direct CO2 emissions

(2nd industrial CO2 emitter)

(1st industrial process CO2 emitter)

Clinker BF & Steel slagFly ash LimestoneNatural pozzolana GypsumCalcined clay

Estimated average cement

composition

(Reliance on industrial by-products)

© IEA 2017

Cement production by region

Strong growth in cement production growth in developing Asian countries compensates for the decline

in Chinese cement sector activity.

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

2014 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Mt

cem

ent/

yrAfrica

Middle East

Eurasia

Europe

America

Other Asia Pacific

India

China

World high-variability case

World low-variability case

© IEA 2017

Strategies to reduce CO2 emissions from cement production

CARBON

EMISSIONS

REDUCTION

IN CEMENT

Energy

efficiency

Reducing

clinker-to-

cement ratio

Innovative

technologies

Switching to

alternative

fuels

• Carbon emissions reduction levers can influence the potential for emissions reductions of other options

• For instance,

• Alternative fuels use typically requires greater thermal energy compared to conventional fossil fuels due to lower calorific content and required kiln operating conditions.

• Carbon capture equipment requires additional energy to operate.

• Reducing the clinker-to-cement ratio may involve the use of cement constituents requiring energy in their preparation process (e.g. calcined clay).

© IEA 2017

Global final energy demand and direct CO2 intensity of cement – 2DS

A 32% reduction in the global direct CO2 intensity of cement by 2050 in the 2DS is supported by

• Energy efficiency levels reaching best performing levels

• A reduction of fossil fuels share in cement kilns of 26%

• Significant reductions of the clinker-to-cement ration across regions, reaching a global level of 0.6 by 2050

• Integrating carbon capture technologies in cement production with CO2 captured reaching around 30% of

the generated direct CO2 by 2050

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

14 000

2014 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

t dir

ect C

O2/

t cem

ent

PJElectricity

Waste

Biomass

Natural gas

Oil

Coal

Direct CO2 intensity - 2DS

Direct CO2 intensity - RTS

© IEA 2017

Process CO2 emissions intensity for selected binding materials

Alternative binding materials open possibilities for reductions of process CO2 emissions in cement

manufacturing but raw materials and operational costs, limited market applicability and standards, as

well as further R&D needs in some cases, limit further deployment.

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

OPC clinker Belite clinker CSA clinker BCSA clinker CACS clinker MOMS clinker

kg p

roce

ss C

O2/

t b

ind

ing

mat

eria

l

Potentialcomparativeprocess CO2 savings

Process CO2intensity

Note: PC = Portland cement, CSA = calcium sulphoaluminate, BCSA = belite calcium sulphoaluminate, CACS = carbonation of calcium silicates, MOMS = magnesium oxide derived from

magnesium silicates. OPC clinker mainly contains 63% alite, 15% belite, 8% tricalcium aluminate and 9% tetracalcium alumino-ferrite. Belite clinker is considered to mainly contain 62% belite,

16% alite, 8% tricalcium aluminate and 9% tetracalcium alumino-ferrite. CSA clinker is considered to mainly contain 47.5% ye’elimite, 23.9% belite, 12.9% wollastonite and 8.6% tetracalcium

alumino-ferrite. BCSA clinker is considered to mainly contain 46% belite, 35% ye’elimite and 17% tetracalcium alumino-ferrite. Commercial compositions of CACS clinker are not currently

available. CACS clinker in this assessment is considered to primarily consist of wollastonite but commercial composition is likely to be different at some extent, and possibly higher in process

CO2 emissions. Process CO2 emissions generated in CACS clinker making are in principle re-absorbed during the curing process.

Source: Quillin, K., 2010, Scrivener, K. L. et al., 2016 and Sui, T. and Gartner, E., 2017.

© IEA 2017

Global Cement Technology Roadmap: a living process

Encompassing projects

- Technology papers development covering 52 technologies by European Cement Research

Academy in 2017.

https://www.wbcsdcement.org/pdf/technology/CSI_ECRA_Technology_Papers_2017.pdf

- IEA analytical support to

- Forthcoming Brazil Cement Technology Roadmap.

- Forthcoming report to track progress of the India Cement Industry since 2013 when the

national IEA/CSI cement roadmap was launched.

GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY

ROADMAP

REGIONAL TECHNOLOGY

ROADMAP TRACKING PROGRESS

© IEA 2017

www.iea.org IEA

THANKS!