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US Industry Monitor | 1ST APRIL 1
Industry Report
US Industry Monitor
2015 First Half Issue
Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ A member of MUFG, a global financial group
1ST APRIL 2015
【OVERVIEW】～Moderate Recovery Likely to Continue
Although real GDP growth remained at an annual rate of 2.2% in the fourth quarter of 2014 reflecting higher imports due to the stronger dollar, a moderate recovery trend continues as consumer spending remains solid attributable to higher real personal income.
Looking ahead, while lower crude oil prices could lead to deterioration in financial results of the energy related industries, personal spending is expected to remain solid and the U.S. industries as a whole are expected to continue to moderately improve. Nevertheless, U.S. corporate performance should continue to be monitored carefully as changes in the current monetary policy of the Fed and geopolitical tensions as well as further uncertainties over the outlook of the overseas economy could dampen real economy and consumer sentiment.
《The Outlook for Major Sectors and Indicators》
ENERGY: Crude oil prices are expected to remain low due to slower demand in emerging markets such as China and increased domestic tight oil supply. Natural gas prices are also expected to remain low as oversupply will continue.
MATERIALS: Ethylene prices remain low on the back of lower crude oil prices, but the demand is solid. U.S.-based ethylene producers are benefiting from resilient cash margin on lower feedstock ethane costs. Ethylene prices are expected to remain solid as supplies are expected to tighten as a result of cancellation of new plant construction.
INDUSTRIALS: Construction remains solid, primarily nonresidential construction such as office buildings and lodging. Moreover, commercial aerospace industry remains particularly favorable on continued replacement demand of aging aircrafts.
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY/STAPLES: U.S. auto sales remain favorable, and likely to remain strong to reach around 16.8 million units SAAR for the full-year 2015. Retailing is also expected to remain solid overall. However, the gap among retail format and companies could grow wider as consumers remain selective.
HEALTHCARE: Higher-priced products such as biologics are expected to continue to contribute to performance of pharmaceutical companies. The healthcare services industry is likely to achieve increased profitability attributable to continued rise in utilization of healthcare services as a result of the healthcare reform.
FINANCIALS: Loan demand remains solid and charge-offs and delinquency rates remain low. Nevertheless, rising subprime auto loans should be monitored.
IT: Sales of tablet devices continue to slow down on the back of increased saturation of developed market, but smartphones remain relatively favorable, supported by demand for low-end devices in emerging markets. PC shipments are likely to remain flat supported by replacement demand.
US Industry Monitor | 1ST APRIL 2
Sector Industry Indicator Latest Data
Page
Energy Oil & Natural Gas
Crude Oil Prices and Global Demand / US Tight Oil Production
Jan 2015 Mar 2015
3
Natural Gas Prices and Production / Inventories
Feb 2015 3
Materials
Chemicals Ethylene Price Jan 2015 4
Container & Packaging Cardboard Box Shipments Jan 2015 4
Metals & Mining Steel Price/ Production / Import Feb 2015
5 Aluminum LME Spot Price / Inventory Feb 2015
Paper & Forest Products Paper Price Feb 2015 5
Industrial
Construction & Engineering Construction Expenditures Dec 2014 6
Aerospace & Defense Commercial Aircraft Orders and Backlog 4Q 2014 6
Industrial Machinery Machinery Order Jan 2015 7
Freight & Shipping Railroad Traffic 4Q 2014 7
Airlines Airline Revenue Passenger Miles Nov 2014 8
Consumer Discretionary
Auto & Auto parts Automobile Sales / Production Jan 2015 8
Media Ad Revenue Growth 4Q 2014 9
Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure Growth in Hotel Occupancy and Average Daily Room Rate (ADR)
4Q 2014 9
Consumer Discretionary Retailing
Same Store Sales 4Q 2014 10
Consumer Staples
Food & Staples Retailing Same Store Sales 4Q 2014 10
Healthcare
Healthcare Services Hospital Volume Growth / CPI 4Q 2014/ Jan 2015
11
Pharmaceuticals Pharmaceuticals Shipment / PPI Dec 2014/ Jan 2015
11
Medical Equipment Electromed - Instrument Manufacturing / PPI Dec 2014/ Jan 2015
12
Financials
Non-bank Finance Companies Loan Growth and Credit Performance Dec 2014 4Q 2014
12
Capital Markets Average Daily Trading Volumes / Mutual Fund Flows
Jan 2015 Dec 2014
13
Insurance L/H Premiums / Consideration & Deposits / Net Investment Income
3Q 2014 13
Insurance P/C Combined Ratio / Net Investment Income 3Q 2014 14
Real Estate & REITS REIT SS NOI Growth and Vacancy Rates 4Q 2014 14
Information Technology
IT Solution PC Shipment / Media Tablet and Smartphone Shipments
4Q 2014 15
IT Components Semiconductor Shipment / Equipment Bookings
Dec 2014 Jan 2015
15
Telecoms Telecommunications Wireless Subscription / Wireless ARPU 4Q 2014 16
Utilities Utilities Electricity Retail Sales / Wholesale Price 3Q 2014 Feb 2015
16
Appendix1 - Macro Indicators 4Q 2014 17
Appendix2 - Exchange Rates Feb 2015 18
Table of Contents
Note: The "FORECAST" period in this edition is a short-term outlook (6 months-1 year).
US Industry Monitor | 1ST APRIL 3
1. Crude Oil Prices and Global Demand / US Tight Oil Production
Forecast: Pricing plunged, as supply growth faced decelerating demand
Crude pricing has collapsed. Crude pricing has been cut by half to $51/bbl for WTI in February 2014, from $105/bbl as recently as June 2014. The Brent-WTI spread has widened to $10/bbl, as Cushing storage in the U.S. approaches “tank tops.”
Rising supply helped drive the price plunge. The price collapse was primarily caused by a continuation in the growth of global crude supply, driven by U.S. tight oil production. U.S. crude production grew 1.1 mmbpd to 8.6 mmbpd in 2014 from 7.5 mmbpd in 2013.
Decelerating demand exacerbates the oversupply. As crude supply grew, global crude demand continued to decelerate, primarily driven by slowing Chinese economic growth, since China contributes meaningfully to the marginal barrel of global demand. Chinese GDP growth of 7.4% was the slowest in 24 years.
Outlook is for flat pricing ahead. Going forward, U.S. crude oil production is expected to continue to grow in 2015, despite spending pullbacks, as operators continue to squeeze out efficiencies and benefit from service cost deflation. Demand growth will remain muted, as China is expected to further slow GDP growth to 7% in 2015. This will be balanced by steep natural declines and reduced capex spending, keeping pricing relatively flat.
2. Natural Gas Prices and Production / Inventories
Forecast: Strong production has closed the storage deficit
Natural gas prices remain depressed. Natural gas prices have pulled back even further, down to $2.73/mmbtu, as production has hit a record high of 80.6 bcfpd. This production returned inventories to the 5-year average, and closed the deficit in storage caused by last year’s Polar Vortex. The production growth has been primarily driven by associated gas from tight oil and NGL plays.
Outlook is for further production expansion. Natural gas production is expected to expand further, as takeaway capacity is built in the Marcellus, and operators continue to drive efficiencies in liquids-rich plays. The crude pricing plunge has resulted in an oversupply of drilling rigs and collapsed service costs, which could provide incentive for increased natural gas drilling, as the service cost deflation will lower natural gas production cost break-evens.
Pricing will be flat going forward. Although inventories are expected to continue building, demand for gas could increase as well, as natural gas prices are now cheaper than all U.S. coals, resulting in an increase in coal-to-gas switching for power generation. This balanced scenario will result in relatively flat pricing ahead.
Crude Oil Prices and Demand
(Source: Bloomberg) (Unit: %, $/barrel)
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
'05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
World Crude Demand Growth (1 year m.a.) (left)
WTI (right)
Brent (right)
US Tight Oil Production
(Source: EIA) (Unit: Mbpd)
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
'07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
Niobrara
Eagle Ford
Bakken
Permian
Natural Gas Prices and Production
(Source: Bloomberg) (Unit: $/mmbtu, bcfpd)
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$12
$14
$16
'05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
Production (right)
Natural Gas Price (left)
Natural Gas Inventories
(Source: EIA) (Unit: bcf)
750
1750
2750
3750
5-yr range 5-yr average2014 2015
US Industry Monitor | 1ST APRIL 4
3. Ethylene Price Forecast: Ethylene prices will stabilize amid inventory restocking and tight capacity
Ethylene prices plummeted in 2H14. Plunging crude oil prices led to steep declines in ethylene prices, even as demand accelerated amid an improving economy. Low inventories in China and Europe further fueled ethylene volumes.
Producers’ operating rates strengthened. As demand strengthened amid an improving economy, and as capacity increases remained limited, ethylene producers’ operating rates strengthened and buttressed their operating performance.
Despite a decline in U.S. rig count, natural gas production remains strong. Ample supply of low-cost ethane continues to provide U.S.-based producers with cost-advantaged feedstock and resilient cash margins.
Low crude oil prices will likely prompt delays or cancellation of ethylene projects in the Middle East and Asia. Producers integrated upstream into oil will seek to curtail their capex, while coal-to-olefin projects in China will be challenged by the loss of coal’s advantage vs. naphtha. This, and limited capacity additions in North America before 2016/17, will underpin tight global capacity.
Feedstock prices will stabilize in the months ahead. More stable ethane costs will encourage ethylene producers to rebuild inventories, enabling ethylene prices to settle at their current level.
4. Cardboard Box Shipments Forecast: Modest recovery ahead
Box shipments rose 0.2% y-o-y in 2H14 after recording a 0.3% drop in 1H14 as solid demand of the packaged consumer products. Though containerboard inventories increased a bit due to softening demand, particularly in the packaged food products as well as the durable industry, nonetheless the box shipments kept at stable level.
Slightly positive growth going forward. A modest industry recovery could continue from here on as US economic activity advances. However, containerboard producers continue to manage supply production efficiently to avoid downward pricing pressure, with some newsprint suppliers now converting their mills to packaging applications with the backdrop of weakening demand for newsprint. On the other hand, looming capacity increases in China could influence the US market.
(Source: Bloomberg, IHS Chemical) (Unit: Cents / lb)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
'05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
Ethylene Price (Delivered pipeline, Gulf)
(Source: RISI) (Unit: Mil sq ft)
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
25
27
29
31
33
35
'05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
Shipments Growth (Y/Y)
US Industry Monitor | 1ST APRIL 5
5. Steel Price / Production / Import, Aluminum LME Spot Price / Inventory
Forecast: Steel prices to weaken as supply increases; aluminium prices remain solid
Steel:
Recently a higher level of imports pushed prices lower. US steel production kept steady in 2H14, rising 1.4% y-o-y (1.3% in 1H14) due to stable demand from the US auto industry. Steel imports continued to rise in 2H14, due to the influence of the stronger dollar and excess global capacity.
Prices will likely slightly weaken further before stabilizing. Though demand for US steel should continue to improve steadily, price will likely slightly weaken in the near-term due to higher US production as supply disruptions fade, and global oversupply continues given Chinese, South Korean, and Mexican production.
Aluminum:
Prices fell 2.2% y-o-y in 2H14 but still remained above historical lows seen in 2009. Even though there was a relatively large decline of LME stock, it takes more time to influence the spot price. Also additional capacity reductions partially supported price levels.
Prices will likely to be flat. Indeed inventories will likely fall further due to the enforcement of the new LME stock rules, but it will need more time to solve the premium of aluminum paid over LME prices. In light of solid global demand, aluminum prices can now stabilize and remain at a stable level.
6. Paper Price Forecast: Suppliers could struggle to keep prices steady, with slight decline likely
Overall US paper production continued to fall in 2H14, down 2.1% y-o-y, mainly due to the digitalization of newspaper and magazines. Most paper production is in the hands of a few large suppliers, who have reduced output to match falling demand, and this has allowed prices to remain relatively stable.
Generally, slightly lower prices are likely. Uncoated freesheet prices kept a bit higher level on the account of capacity reductions in the US, but lower prices are likely going forward as supply picks up. Lineboard has been flat, a trend that should persist given relatively solid demand and measured new capacity additions. While the newsprint suppliers continue to manage supply production efficiently, demand continues its secular decline.
Steel Price, Production & Import
(Source: Bloomberg) (Unit: Million Tonne, US$/t)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
'05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
Production (left) Imports (left)
Hot Rolled Prices (right)
Aluminum LME Spot Price/Inventory
(Source: Bloomberg) (Unit: $/t, '000t)
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
'08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
LM
E S
tock
LM
E S
pot Price
LME Stock
LME Spot Price
(Source: Pulp & Paper Week) (Unit: $/Ton)
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
'05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
Newsprint Uncoated Freesheet Linerboard
US Industry Monitor | 1ST APRIL 6
7. Construction Expenditures Forecast: Construction spending will strengthen
Construction activity in North America decelerated in the second half of 2014, largely on the back of flat residential construction values even as the number of new housing units under construction advanced at a healthy clip.
In non-residential construction, growth is driven by lodging and office construction, reflecting the improving economy and employment figures.
Public construction spending lost steam. After posting double digit growth in the first three quarters of 2014 public construction spending decelerated in the last quarter, amid political uncertainty related to the mid-term elections.
Housing starts and authorizations are growing. Strong increases in both housing starts and authorizations point to healthy residential unit growth this year even as restrained wage growth will continue to weigh on values.
8. Commercial Aircraft Orders and Backlog Forecast: Aircraft orders and backlogs will stabilize at record levels
Commercial aircraft orders continued their multi-year rise in 2014, on the back of new routes in emerging regions and a growing replacement of aging fleets. Orders for narrow-body new aircrafts, notably Airbus A320neo and Boeing 737MAX, spearheaded the surge in orders.
Backlogs rose to record levels. Although both Boeing and Airbus have ramped up their production, their backlogs rose to record highs in 2014 amid fewer order cancellations and deferrals. Boeing has 8 years and Airbus 9 years of production in backlog at current rates.
Lower fuel costs pose a threat to replacement demand. The steep decline in jet fuel costs will likely dampen airlines’ incentive to replace their aircraft with more efficient models, triggering an increase in order cancellations and deferrals. However, the impact of these actions will be offset by the flow of new orders, a result of rising air travel powered by economic growth and of route expansion by increasingly profitable airlines.
(Source: U.S. Census Bureau) (Unit:Billion US$)
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
0
500
1,000
1,500
'05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
ResidentialNon-Residential (Private)Non-Residential (Public)Growth (Y/Y)
(Source: Boeing, Airbus) (Unit: Thousand Units)
0.0
1.5
3.0
4.5
6.0
7.5
9.0
10.5
12.0
13.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
'05 '07 '09 '11 '13 Q4 Q2 Q4
Back
log
Ord
ers
Boeing Airbus Backlog
2013 2014 2015
US Industry Monitor | 1ST APRIL 7
9. Machinery Order Forecast: Machinery orders will recover on the back of domestic demand
New machinery orders decelerated in 2H14, reflecting the uncertainty caused by falling oil prices and geopolitical/economic difficulties around the world. These led Russia and the Middle East to hold back massive investments in new infrastructure and construction projects and China to retreat from relying on overbuilding to power its economic growth.
The construction sector was hard hit. Construction machinery orders bore the brunt of the overall weakness, falling into negative territory in 2H14, where they dragged the entire machinery sector since November. Weak exports due to both the strengthening dollar and deteriorating economies in major buyer-countries, notably Brazil, also weighed on new machinery orders.
Demand for construction machinery will recover, due to the rebound in U.S. construction and housing. Industrial machinery, after posting a 21.7% YoY gain in 2H14, will continue to advance this year, on the back of sustained oil and gas production from shale and resurgent manufacturing, as reflected in ISM’s PMI, which rose to 57.6% in 2H14.
10. Railroad Traffic Forecast: : Railroad traffic will remain solid
Railroad traffic accelerated in 2H14, with ton-miles posting a 6.4% gain YoY, up from 3.4% a year earlier.
Carload growth was also bolstered by strong intermodal traffic. 2H14 carloads advanced even more strongly than ton-miles, at 8.1% in 2H14, reflecting strong growth in intermodal units, especially those hauling motor vehicles, as well as chemical and petroleum/petroleum product carloads. While the improving economy and manufacturing activity were the main drivers of increased intermodal and chemical shipments, surging production of crude oil from shale drove a 22.4% increase in petroleum and petroleum products volumes.
Coal returned to growth. After declining steadily since 2012, coal, the largest commodity shipped by rail, returned to growth in 2H14, on the back of a rise in coal exports.
Demand will remain strong amid an improving economy and continued growth in shale oil production. Sustained traffic and tight capacity will further buttress railroads’ strong pricing.
(Source: U.S. Census Bureau) (Unit: Billion US$)
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
'05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
New Order (SA) Y/Y % Change
(Source: Surface Transportation Board) (Unit: Billions)
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
'05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
Ton-Miles (left)Growth Ratio (Y/Y) (right)
US Industry Monitor | 1ST APRIL 8
11. Airline Revenue Passenger Miles Forecast: Further gains in airline traffic ahead
Airline traffic accelerated in 2H14, on the back of improving domestic travel, reflecting rising consumer confidence and stronger employment levels. International traffic decelerated under the weight of slowing economies in China and Brazil, sputtering economic growth in Europe, and geopolitical turmoil in Russia and the Middle East.
Airlines enjoy strong pricing power. Against the background of disciplined capacity management, airlines’ pricing power strengthened, enabling them to enhance their top line through a slew of ancillary revenues from passengers.
Lower jet fuel prices amid falling crude oil prices are adding further momentum to the industry profitability, which has been benefiting from stronger air traffic and capacity discipline.
Growing economy will power further gains in passenger traffic. This, along with pricing discipline and lower fuel costs will underpin airline strength in 2015.
12. Automobile Sales / Production Forecast: Growth continues in 2015 albeit at a slower pace
U.S. auto sales, coming off the best sales year in eight years, rose 7% y/y through February 2015 to 16.3M SAAR. While severe winter weather weighed on sales somewhat, light truck sales continued to post double-digit growth on the back of strong demand for CUV/SUV and pickups amid low gasoline prices and easy credit, boosting transaction prices and margins for the industry. On the flip side, demand for mid and small cars remained relatively soft.
U.S. auto sales are projected to top 16.8M units in 2015 (vs. 16.4M in 2014), helped by wide credit availability, an improving economy, and the record high fleet age. Looking beyond the near term, we expect SAAR to remain plateaued in a range of 16.5-17.0M over the next 3-4 years, given potential headwinds that could arise from falling residual values, rising short term rates, and increased regulatory scrutiny of subprime auto lending.
North American auto production totaled 16.9M units in 2014, an 8.4M increase from the trough in 2009; higher sales accounted for three quarters of the increase. The balance was driven by import substitution and export growth. Despite a strong dollar, nearly 1.1M vehicles were exported from the US to non-NAFTA markets last year. In 2015 NA production is projected at 17.3M units as modest production losses resulting from the West Coast port delays will be recouped in the coming quarters.
(Source: U.S. Dept. of Transportation) (Unit: Billions)
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
0
20
40
60
80
100
'05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
Domestic RPMs International RPMs
Dom Growth (Y/Y) Int Growth (Y/Y)
US Light Vehicle Sales (SAAR)
(Source: Ward's AutoInfoBank) (Unit: Millions)
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
'05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
Litght Truck
Car
Growth Rate (Y/Y)
North America Light Vehicle Production
(Source: Ward's AutoInfoBank) (Unit:Thousands)
-80%
-40%
0%
40%
80%
120%
160%
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
'05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
Light Truck
Car
Growth Rate (Y/Y)
US Industry Monitor | 1ST APRIL 9
13. Ad Revenue Growth Forecast: Market fundamentals remain healthy for both pricing and demand
Market growth rates to remain steady. U.S. advertising spend advanced 2.6% in 2014, with incremental spending related to the special events of Winter Olympics, World Cup, and US mid-term elections accounting for about 1.2% of the growth. Despite the lack of a major sporting or political event, the ad spend market in 2015 is expected to largely match the growth rate of 2014, buoyed by strong digital ad demand.
Programmatic buying shifts ad agency landscape. The industry is transitioning toward programmatic buying, an automated bidding process to efficiently purchase digital ads. The gradual shift poses a long-term risk of disintermediation for the ad agencies given that advertisers may choose to purchase ads directly rather than pay third-parties to do so for them.
Digital ad growth remains strong. Digital Internet advertising continues to rise, mainly at the expense of print, with newspaper and magazine experiencing demand erosion as viewership migrate to cheaper digital competitors. Meanwhile, television remains appealing to advertisers given its value of being the only medium to reach a mass audience platform.
14. Growth in Hotel Occupancy and Average Daily Room Rate (ADR)
Forecast: Trends continue their recovery, performance once again ticking up
Muted new supply will help to keep hotel occupancy levels and ADR in positive territory following the recent recessionary dips.
Demand continues to be improving from leisure, business and group travel. There has been strong growth among almost all sectors of the industry (especially the upper ends of the upscale and midscale, as well as the entire economy segment).
Driven by the growth in occupancy and stable ADR, RevPAR (revenue per average room) is expected to increase 5%-6% in the following 12-18 months, which will yield a ~6% to 8% growth in EBITDA – an important indicator of strength in the industry.
Despite a continuing positive trend, returns to pre-recessionary growth is unlikely given still slowing growth in the emerging markets and still mixed economic signals in the industrialized economies.
U.S. Advertising Spend
(Source: Magna Global, Kantar Media) (Unit: Billion US$)
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
'07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
Total U.S. Adver tising Y/Y Growth
Mass Media Spend by Sector
(Source: Magna Global, Kantar Media) (Unit: Billion US$)
-2
2
6
10
14
18
'07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14
Television Newspapers
Magazines Digital (Internet)
(Source: Hotel New s Now ) (Unit: %)
-12-10-8-6-4-202468
10
'05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
Occupancy Growth (Y/Y)
ADR Growth (Y/Y)
US Industry Monitor | 1ST APRIL 10
15. Consumer Discretionary Retailing (Same Store Sales)
Forecast: More stable footing, but range bound by still mixed economic signals
Overall, US Retail Sales growth continues somewhat tepid, but still positive, performance. It is expected that going forward, the deflationary impact of gas prices will positively impact retail sales.
Consumer spending remains dampened. Although the stronger stock market and home price appreciation will continue to be a tailwind, slow job creation, wage growth and disposable income growth prevents significantly higher consumer spending.
Promotions are still problematic. Promotional activities intended to encourage sales growth (through higher volumes) continues to impact retailers’ margin health.
Discount retailers continue to perform well given that still mixed economic signals are driving more value-conscious consumers. Interestingly, this value-conscious mindset appears to be spreading to high-end and specialty retailers as more negative trends in these segments continue to emerge. Beyond the value shift, mid-priced department stores continue to perform well driven by robust online strategies.
16. Food & Staples Retailing (Same Store Sales)
Forecast: Benign food inflation provides stable growth fundamentals for sector
Same store sales continue their slow and steady positive growth as food inflation continues to moderate. Competition from non-supermarket / discount retailers continues to intensify, leading to a shift in spending patterns.
Supermarket growth has improved and is expected to accelerate in 2015. Revenue growth will be driven by organic / natural and private label products, given the continued trends of healthy eating and price consciousness. Well-managed supermarkets have managed to slow the rate of loss to non-traditional food retailers as they continue to implement new strategies to increase customer traffic, transaction count and basket size.
Drugstores should continue their growth outperformance vs other sectors as sales and profitability continue to ramp. Despite ongoing reimbursement rate pressures and significant Medicare Part D rate cuts, the sector will be fueled by an aging population with an increased demand for pharmaceuticals. Because generics typically have higher margins, use of generics benefits profitability.
(Source: Bloomberg) (Unit: Y/Y %)
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
'05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
Specialty Apparel Retailers
Off-Price Retailers
Department Stores
High-End Department Stores
(Source: Bloomberg) (Unit: Y/Y %)
-8-6-4-202468
1012
'05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
Supermarkets
Supercenters/Warehouse Clubs
Drug Stores
US Industry Monitor | 1ST APRIL 11
17. Hospital Volume Growth / CPI Forecast: Utilization continues its upswing, providing for positive volume growth
Strong upswing continues. A stabilized economic outlook (particularly lower unemployment rates) and increased levels of health insurance coverage driven by healthcare reform, continue to drive improvements in hospital utilization and, therefore, admissions.
Impacts are larger in those states that have already expanded Medicaid coverage, but improvements are visible nationwide. There are a number of states that are expected to expand Medicaid coverage going forward, providing some longevity to current trends.
Profitability should continue to accelerate strongly as the benefits of expanded health insurance coverage flow straight to the bottom line. Both charitable care and bad debt expenses are expected to continue their sharp downward trends.
While Medicare reimbursement remains continually under pressure, ongoing economic stability and recovery of tax receipts from recessionary lows have somewhat removed the ST pressure from federal funding.
Exchanges exceed expectations. Final numbers associated with sign-ups during the second year of healthcare reform implementation once again exceeded most estimates.
18. Pharmaceutical Shipment / PPI Forecast: It’s a pricing story led by specialty and biologic products
Volumes don’t tell the whole story. Recent trends towards higher-priced branded drugs (particularly biologic products) means that volume metrics continue to understate the true strength of the pharmaceutical industry.
Pricing improving. While volumes remain fairly flat in terms of LT growth, pricing shows continued stability and significant improvement after the impact of the recent patent cliff (shifting a not insubstantial percentage of spend from branded – higher-priced – to generic – lower-priced drugs).
Pharma pipelines continue to strengthen, particularly in oncology and other specialty diseases. The number of new drug approvals (particularly for specialty products) continues to climb in both the US and EU, although spending pressure remains and initial uptakes have been somewhat below historic levels.
M&A activity remains high and is not expected to abate. Activity will continue given the industry’s strong operating performance, excellent credit metrics, growing market valuations and the need to continue to refine and focus portfolios and pipelines to meet competitive pressures.
(Source: Bloomberg, company reports, and MUB
Corporate Research
(5%)(4%)(3%)(2%)(1%)
0%1%2%3%4%5%
1Q08 1Q09 1Q10 1Q11 1Q12 1Q13 1Q14 1Q15
Inpatient Admissions (Y/Y)
Equivalent Admissions (Y/Y)
(Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics)
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
250
300
350
400
450
'05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
CPI - Medical Care ServicesGrowth Rate (Y/Y)
(Base Period: 1982-84=100)
(Source: U.S. Census Bureau) (Unit: Billion US$)
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
'05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
Pharmaceutical Shipments
Growth Rate (Y/Y)
(Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics)
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
200
250
300
350
400
450
'05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
PPI - Pharmaceutical and Medicine MfgGrowth Rate (Y/Y)
(Base: 12/82=100)
US Industry Monitor | 1ST APRIL 12
19. Medical Equipment (Electromed-Instrument Manufacturing / PPI)
Forecast: Utilization drives volumes, but pricing remains disappointing
Volumes continue to recover. Growth driven by overall increases in healthcare utilization, due to the stronger economy and increased health insurance coverage.
However, the industry continues to lack an innovative pipeline or product portfolio. This means little differentiation and, therefore, price competition remains strong. Additionally, provider consolidation and continued combinations in group purchasing structures keep pricing extremely soft (and bordering on the negative).
Recall impact continues. A string of product recalls in some major product lines (i.e. cardiac and joint replacement) has caused physicians to reevaluate their use of some products given what is now perceived as a higher risk profile. It is likely the industry will spend at least the next few years recovering from the negative impact.
Key to positive margin growth is cost controls (continually diminishing returns). In addition, emerging markets, where US firms are underrepresented, are also a source of future growth. MedTech likely represents the next front in the tax inversion trend.
20. Non-bank Financial Companies (Loan Growth and Credit Performance)
Forecast: Modest Loan Growth and Less Credit Improvement
Positive loan growth supported by growing economy. Non-bank finance companies remain focused on growth as the economy continues to strengthen with a stronger labor market. Managed receivables for Consumer (61% of total) and Business (29% of total) continue to modestly rise while real estate (only 10% of total) continues to decline.
Loan demand continues to improve for most categories. According to the Federal Reserve's January 2015 lending survey (4Q14 activity), loan demand showed a pickup for auto, credit card, CRE, and C&I loans while demand was weaker for most categories of home-purchase loans. Smaller net fractions of banks than in prior surveys reported that they had eased lending terms.
Lower credit costs will be less of a tailwind. Charge-offs and delinquencies have continued to decline since the financial crisis. Going forward, we expect credit costs to continue to decline, but the pace of improvement will continue to moderate. Lenders expect improvements in delinquency and charge-off rates during 1H15 for most loan categories, except for syndicated leveraged loans and subprime auto loans. Competition is increasing as companies grow their loan portfolios, which could result in a slight reversal in credit metric trends.
(Source: U.S. Census Bureau) (Unit: Billion US$)
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
0
2
4
6
8
10
'05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
Value of Shipments Growth Rate (Y/Y)
(Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics)
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
100
102
104
106
108
110
112
114
116
'05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
PPI - Medical Equipment & SuppliesGrowth Rate (Y/Y)
(Base: 12/03=100)
Y/Y Growth in Managed Receivables
(Source: FRB)
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
Dec-13Feb-14 Apr-14 Jun-14Aug-14 Oct-14 Dec-14
Consumer Real estate Business
Charge-offs
(Source: FRB) (Unit: %)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
'05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
C&I Loans
Credit Cards
Real Estate
US Industry Monitor | 1ST APRIL 13
21. Capital Markets (Average Daily Trading Volumes / Mutual Fund Flows)
Forecast: Lackluster trading volumes but mutual fund industry flows remain positive
Trading volumes stabilize. Average daily trading volumes (ADV) were essentially flat in 2014, after a 7% decline in 2013. In the near-term, we expect equity trading volumes to remain lackluster reflecting the new regulatory environment, which has limited risk taking from banks.
Industry flows remain positive in 2014. According to the Investment Company Institute (ICI), 2014 remains a positive year for investment funds as net inflows to long-term mutual funds were $96.5 billion for the year, but weaker than $160.1 billion of inflows in 2013.
Equity and bond funds saw outflows in 2H14. Equity funds saw net inflows of $25.6 billion in 2014 despite outflows of $31.4 billion in 2H14. Similarly, bond funds saw net inflows of $43.0 billion in 2014, despite outflows of $13.7 billion in 2H14.
22. Insurance L/H (Premiums / Consideration & Deposits / Net Investment Income)
Forecast: Modest premium growth ahead while investment returns remain challenging
Premium growth normalizing. Life insurance companies reported premium decline of 12.4% in 2013, but 3Q14 YTD premiums increased 9.2% y/y in order to maintain needed cash reserves as insurers are receiving lower than expected returns on their investments. We look for overall premium growth to decline to a more sustainable level longer term (3.4% since 2002). As expected, 3Q14 data declined 5.8% vs. 3Q13. The market remains bifurcated at the product level with interest rate sensitive products (e.g. universal life and fixed annuities) underperforming given low interest rates and more market driven products (e.g. variable life and variable annuities) seeing better growth.
Investment returns remain under pressure. Low interest rates (the 10-yr Treasury was 2.25% as of February 10, 2014) remain a significant headwind for the industry and continue to place downward pressure on investment income growth. The 10-yr Treasury yield has declined about 28bps over the last six months. In order to manage assets and cash inflows to satisfy various obligations, many companies have been actively restructuring their investment portfolios, as well as increasing their investments in higher-yielding, higher-risk assets, such as alternative investments, in order to partly offset the negative impact from low interest rates.
NYSE Listed Trading Volume
(Source: NYSE)
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
'10 '11 '12 '13 '14Ave
rag
e D
aily V
olu
me (M
M)
Industry-Wide Mutual Fund Flows
(Source: ICI) (Unit: Billions US$)
($150)
($125)
($100)
($75)
($50)
($25)
$0
$25
$50
$75
'08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
Premiums, Consideration & Deposits
(Source: SNL) (Unit: Billion US$)
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
0
50
100
150
200
'05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
Premiums, Consideration & Deposits ($)
Y/Y Change (%)
Net Investment Income (1 yr. Mov Avg.)
(Source: SNL) (Unit: Billion US$)
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
30
32
34
36
38
40
42
44
46
'05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
Net Investment Income ($)
Y/Y Change (%)
US Industry Monitor | 1ST APRIL 14
23. Insurance P/C (Combined Ratio / Net Investment Income)
Forecast: Improved underwriting results but lackluster investment returns
Underwriting results have been improving since 1Q13. Due to fewer loss payouts since Hurricane Sandy, P/C operating performance has improved and is expected to remain healthy, driven by growing premiums (at low-to-mid-single digits), which is generally at or above loss cost trends. Looking forward, a normalized level of catastrophe events should lead to a combined ratio closer to 100%.
Pricing improvement may soon start to slow. Positive pricing momentum continued in 2014, but the pace may start to slow. Pricing increase below loss cost trend could result in core underwriting margin deterioration. The pace and length of future improvement remains unclear as the industry is highly competitive and remains adequately capitalized.
Investment results adversely impacted by low rates. Investment results remain under pressure as a result of the low interest rate environment.
Note: The Combined ratio is a primary indicator of P/C
insurers’ underwriting profitability. Calculation: losses incurred to premium earned plus underwriting expenses to premiums written after policyholders’ dividends.
24. REIT SS NOI Growth and Vacancy Rates Forecast: Continued recovery in operating
fundamentals
REIT fundamentals continue to trend favorably. Same store (SS) net operating income (NOI) growth remains positive, supported by improving economic conditions and job growth, which have led to higher occupancy and rent growth. Some REIT subsectors have fared better, with self-storage and multifamily still outperforming other property types.
Vacancy rates continue to slowly improve.
o Multifamily: has benefited from favorable supply/demand dynamics, which has led to vacancy improvements and higher pricing. Both vacancy rates and rents are expected to improve modestly, but rental growth is expected to decelerate going forward given more supply.
o Office: has benefitted from favorable employment trends and limited new supply; however, demand remains lackluster and vacancy rates remain elevated (though improving) relative to historical levels.
o Retail: has benefitted from job creation, population growth, and improving operating metrics.
o Industrial: has been supported by favorable supply/demand and better economic conditions, which have led to improved occupancy.
Combined Ratio (1yr. Mov Avg.)
(Source: SNL) (Unit: %)
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
'05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
Deteriorate
Improve
4Q12 impacted by Superstorm Sandy
Net Investment Income (1 yr. Mov Avg.)
(Source: SNL) (Unit: Billion US$)
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
6
8
10
12
14
16
'05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
Net Investment Income
Y/Y Change (%)
U.S. REIT Y/Y SS NOI Growth by Sector
(Source: SNL and MUB Corporate Research)
-6-4-202468
1012
'06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14
Multifamily Industrial Office
Regional Malls Shopping Ctrs Self Storage
(%)
Vacancy Rates
(Source: REIS)
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
1Q08 1Q09 1Q10 1Q11 1Q12 1Q13 1Q14 1Q15
Apartment OfficeRetail Industrial
US Industry Monitor | 1ST APRIL 15
25. PC Shipment / Media Tablet and Smartphone Shipments
Forecast: The PC market is stabilizing, while tablet market growth decelerates
PC declines moderate. A secular shift in user preference toward tablets continues to hurt PC market demand. However, the pace of decline is moderating, with 2014 shipments down 2%, aided by a business refresh cycle due to the end of Windows XP support, compared to the 10% unit decline posted in 2013. Demand trends are expected to stabilize in 2015, as consumers begin to upgrade an aging PC installed base.
Tablet market becoming saturated. Tablet unit growth is rapidly decelerating amid increasing developed market saturation, with 2014 shipment up 8%, versus 65% growth in 2013. The tablet lifecycle is extending, reflective of a lack of device innovation that refrains consumers from upgrading old devices. The market is expected to show similar high single-digit growth for 2015, as increased adoption of ultra-mobile laptops hampers tablet purchases.
Smartphone device demand remains strong. Smartphone shipments increased 29% during 2014 on top of 45% growth in 2013. The market continues to become bifurcated between the rapidly growing low-end device segment, principally in emerging market regions, and the slowing high-end device segment.
26. Semiconductor Shipment / Equipment Bookings
Forecast: Industry upturn to continue in 2015, albeit at slower pace
Industry growth set to moderate. Following a 3% increase in 2013, global semi sales advanced 10% in 2014, aided by a lean supply climate amid growing semiconductor requirements. However, the cyclical upturn is expected to moderate to the mid-single-digits in 2015, as DRAM returns to more traditional price reductions and the industry burns off excess holiday inventory.
Wireless communications key to growth. While PCs remain the largest semi end market, wireless is the key driver of industry growth. In particular, the rapid adoption of smartphones is driving higher chip content in mobile phones. Longer-term, market growth will become tied to the internet of things, in which electronic sensors are used to connect all things digital.
Equipment market growth to remain positive throughout 2015. The three-month average of billings for new semiconductor manufacturing equipment in North America returned above one during January 2015, indicating continued market growth for 2015. However, growth is expected to moderate from the strong double-digit level posted in 2014, as manufacturers pull back on new fab construction to manage new capacity.
PC Shipments
(Source: BI Intelligence) (Unit: Millions)
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1Q09 1Q10 1Q11 1Q12 1Q13 1Q14 1Q15
PC Shipments Y/Y Growth
Connected Device Shipments
(Source: BI Intelligence) (Unit: Millions)
0
100
200
300
400
'09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
Smartphone Uni t ShipmentsMedia Tablet Unit ShipmentsPC Unit Shipments
Worldwide Monthly Semiconductor Sales
(Unit: Billion US$)
(Source: Semiconductor Industry Association)
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
'05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
Others Americas
Americas Y/Y % Change WW Y/Y % Change
N. American Semiconductor Equipment Bookings
(Source: SEMI) (Unit: Million US$, Ratio)
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
'05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
Book-to-Bill Ratio (right)
Semiconductor Equipment Bookings (left)
US Industry Monitor | 1ST APRIL 16
27. Wireless Subscription / Wireless ARPU Forecast: Steady demand driven by rapidly growing data usage trends
Tablet connections remain primary driver of subscriber growth. Wireless subscriber growth is being aided by higher tablets connections, which currently account for about two-thirds of total net subscriber additions. Operators are pushing tablets and other connected devices into their subscriber base in order to increase service revenue via higher data usage through tiered pricing plans and enhanced data services.
ARPU to be hampered by no contract plans. The growing popularity of no-contract plans that allow for device financing essentially transfers a portion of customer revenue from services to equipment. As a result, industry ARPU will be negatively impacted due to lower service revenue, while EBITDA margins should benefit from the lower handset subsidy cost. Carriers have begun to report average billing per user (ABPU) to better reflect the cash flow payments received from device financing plans.
Pricing pressure intensifies. As new phone subscribers become more challenging to generate, industry share gain is increasingly coming from existing customers switching between carriers due to pricing promotions. The bottom two U.S. carriers Sprint and T-Mobile, in particular, are pushing competitive plans to gain market share against their bigger rivals.
28. Electricity Retail Sales / Wholesale Price Forecast: Sales increase, while wholesale power pricing will be flat
Sales growth. Retail electricity sales increased 1.6% year-over-year, driven by strength in the residential and commercial sectors. Continued easy money policy from the Federal Reserve has helped drive the unemployment rate lower and grow jobs, moving the U.S. economy into the heart of the recovery. This has helped residential demand to grow. Gasoline prices are likely to remain lower, providing stimulus to the consumer and freeing up capital to drive consumer spending, which is a longer-term positive for the residential and commercial sectors.
Regulatory hurdles continue. Utility companies will continue to face obstacles in the regulatory arena. EPA-mandated Mercury and Air Toxics Standards (MATS) regulation will require compliance by April 2015, driving 15 GW of coal-fired retirements in this year alone. Implementation of carbon regulations will induce further reduction and retirement of coal-fired capacity. Gas-fired generation will step in to replace some of this capacity, driven by ample supply of the fuel.
Wholesale power pricing will be relatively flat. With natural gas pricing expectations flat, wholesale power pricing should follow a similar trajectory.
U.S. Wireless Subscriptions
(Source: SNL Kagan) (Unit: Million Persons, %)
-10%
0%
10%
20%
0
100
200
300
400
'08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
U.S. Wireless Subscriptions
Y/Y Growth
Wireless Average Revenue Per User
(Source: Bloomberg) (Unit: US$, %)
40
42
44
46
48
50
52
54
56
'07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
Retail Electricity Sales Growth by Sector
(Source: EIA) (Unit: YoY % Change)
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
'06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
Residential Commercial
Industrial Total
Wholesale Electricity Pricing
(Source: Intercontinental Exchange, EIA) (Unit: $/MWh)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
'05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
PJM West 1 year moving average
US Industry Monitor | 1ST APRIL 17
Real GDP Growth ISM
Industrial Production CPI ・PPI
Consumer Confidence Index Unemployment Rate
(Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis) (Unit: %)
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
'05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14
Real GDP % Ch.
(Source: Institute for Supply Management) (Unit: %)
30
40
50
60
70
80
'05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
Manufacturing Non-manufacturing
(Source: FRB) (Unit: Index)
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
70
80
90
100
110
'05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
Industrial Production % Ch.
(Source: U.S. Dept. of Labor) (Unit: %)
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
'05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
CPI PPI
(Source: The Conference Board) (Unit: Index)
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
'05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
Consumer Confidence
(Source: U.S. Dept. of Labor) (Unit: %)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
'05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
Unemployment Rate
Appendix 1: Macro Indicators
US Industry Monitor | 1ST APRIL 18
Euro British Pound
Canadian Dollar Japanese Yen
(Source: Bloomberg)
0.70
0.90
1.10
1.30
1.50
1.70
'05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
Euro to US Dollar
(Source: Bloomberg)
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
2.25
'05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
British Pound to US Dollar
(Source: Bloomberg)
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
1.80
'05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
US Dollar to Canadian Dollar
(Source: Bloomberg)
60
80
100
120
140
160
'05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
US Dollar to Japanese Yen
Appendix 2: Exchange Rates
US Industry Monitor | 1ST APRIL 19
Opinions, views and projections in this document have been made by Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Corporate Research and do not necessarily reflect the view of other business units. They represent our perceptions at the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. This document has been prepared solely for the information purposes of professional investors and non-private customers of Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ and is not intended to constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities. Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ and its subsidiaries trade in securities, futures and other financial instruments and may have a position in any of the financial products, securities or instruments mentioned in this commentary. Information appearing in this document is obtained from sources believed to be reliable. However, we cannot guarantee its accuracy and no liability is accepted whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from its use. Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ is regulated by the Financial Services Authority. Copyright © The Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, Limited 2015 No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted without the prior written permission of The Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Limited.
Publisher: BTMU Corporate Research .
Tomoo Nishina +1-212-782- 5706 [email protected] Head of Corporate Research (New York)
Ari Bensinger 5704 [email protected] Telecom, Media, Technology
Mayuko Hiramatsu 5707 [email protected] Auto & Autoparts
Thang To 4038 [email protected] Financials
Vera Kalina-Levine 5705 [email protected] Chemicals, Industrials
Javed Siddique 4108 [email protected] Energy, Utilities
Robert Murillo 4260 [email protected] Energy, Utilities
Andreas Josef Dirnagl 5694 [email protected] Healthcare, Consumer Related (US/Canada)
Myrvet A. Cocoli 4826 [email protected] Healthcare, Consumer Related (US/Canada)
Satoshi Kondo 5703 [email protected] Latin America & Asia
Brian Nogy 4716 [email protected] Industrials (LatAm), Metals & Mining, Paper & Forest
Katia Tavarez 4057 [email protected] Consumer Related, Agribusiness (LatAm)
Yusuke Akiyama 4988 [email protected] Asia Desk
Jun Tashiro 5551 [email protected] Latin America & Asia
Yukiko Otteson 5700 [email protected] Data Researcher, Translator
