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Thoughts on Industry data collection Sven Kupschus monitoring design and analysis cefas, UK a formal position, no advice, but a presentation as a basis for discussion for future direction?

Industry data collection - nwwac.org and Presentations/2017/Edinburgh... · Thoughts on Industry data collection Sven Kupschus monitoring design and analysis cefas, UK a formal position,

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Page 1: Industry data collection - nwwac.org and Presentations/2017/Edinburgh... · Thoughts on Industry data collection Sven Kupschus monitoring design and analysis cefas, UK a formal position,

Thoughts on Industry data collection

Sven Kupschus

monitoring design and analysis

cefas, UK a formal position, no advice, but a presentation as a basis for discussion for future direction?

Page 2: Industry data collection - nwwac.org and Presentations/2017/Edinburgh... · Thoughts on Industry data collection Sven Kupschus monitoring design and analysis cefas, UK a formal position,

Evaluation of the results of an online survey for the Celtic Seas Partnership (not necessarily a cross section of people, but…)

• Fishermen seem very willing to do their bit if necessary.

• Scientist do think that fishermen have a role in data collection, but working with industry is extra work for which there is little time.

Historically, assessment scientist = working with industry These days, not sure this is regularly the case

Figure 4 Data users

considerations of 17

respondents that

answered this section by

data type. Red indicates a

general mistrust of data,

yellow shades are

concerns of data quality

and reliability, blue

shades imply biases

inherent in the use of

fishing vessels relating to

what the samples are

representative of, green

shades indicate no

concerns, or minor

concerns that could be

addressed with some

adjustment of the

assessment

methodology.

Page 3: Industry data collection - nwwac.org and Presentations/2017/Edinburgh... · Thoughts on Industry data collection Sven Kupschus monitoring design and analysis cefas, UK a formal position,

Differences in fishermen and scientist perspectives

• Pay bills, make it a career, pass it on to children. • Covering multiple stocks

• Individual conditions

• Exploit ‘sustainably’ forever and precautionary for now. • Single stock

• Covering multiple individuals / fleets

Page 4: Industry data collection - nwwac.org and Presentations/2017/Edinburgh... · Thoughts on Industry data collection Sven Kupschus monitoring design and analysis cefas, UK a formal position,

• Bias problem, we need different data for better assessments • TACs are usually too low and stock can sustain more

• We chuck these back dead so they are not in the assessment

• There are more fish out there than scientist think

• Quick wins / short projects

• Variance problem, we need more data for better assessments • Act precautionarily, no data no fishing

• More surveys more precise recruitment forecasts

• Long time series (5 years)

Differences in fishermen and scientist perspectives

Page 5: Industry data collection - nwwac.org and Presentations/2017/Edinburgh... · Thoughts on Industry data collection Sven Kupschus monitoring design and analysis cefas, UK a formal position,

• What formal expertise have fishermen …? • Higher catch rates than survey • Different spatial distribution than survey

• What knowledge do scientists have on …? • Assume no changes in the spatial distribution of the stock • Assume limited changes in the operation of the fishery • Assume environmental effects on recruitment and mortality

rates are constant • Assume closed population

Differences in fishermen and scientist perspectives

Page 6: Industry data collection - nwwac.org and Presentations/2017/Edinburgh... · Thoughts on Industry data collection Sven Kupschus monitoring design and analysis cefas, UK a formal position,

What this means for ‘trust’

• No inherent reason for distrust or conflict of interest.

• Need more fluid communication, a better understanding of the expertise of each group, a common vocabulary.

• Simple and ‘small’ projects with clear objectives and a plan to achieve them.

Page 7: Industry data collection - nwwac.org and Presentations/2017/Edinburgh... · Thoughts on Industry data collection Sven Kupschus monitoring design and analysis cefas, UK a formal position,

What does policy want out of industry data collection?

• More satisfied fishermen / less conflict at the December council

• Reduced risk of infraction or conflict with NGOs

• Reduced cost to public / citizen science data collection

• Increase in sustainably managed fisheries

These may be potential benefits, but if they drive the process it leads to unrealistic expectation, leads to potential conflict of interest and it is likely to erode rather than build trust.

Page 8: Industry data collection - nwwac.org and Presentations/2017/Edinburgh... · Thoughts on Industry data collection Sven Kupschus monitoring design and analysis cefas, UK a formal position,

Food for thought, do we really need industry data collection?

• Data collection under the DCF is generally set up to provide the information necessary to conduct stock assessments at precision levels required by management. What would more data give?

• Some of the data we collect is not being used in assessments. Do we know the reasons why before collecting more?

• There is a high cost to fishermen in collecting data not derived from their normal activities. Is this really what the industry wants?

• How do you ever reopen a fishery when you need data from a fishery to do so?

0200

400

600

800

Species Clustering

14 13 16 8 201918 1 2 3 12 4 15 5 7 9 6 1711 10

14 13 16 8 20 19 18 1 2 3 12 4 15 5 7 9 6 17 11 10

020

40

60

80

LPUE by cluster

BIB

CRE

HAL

JAX

LBE

RJN

TUR

CPR

LIO

LVR

NEP

SBX

SYC

WHE

BRB

BSH

GAG

SBG

SCR

SKH

SMD

ANF

COE

DGS

FLE

GUR

HER

QSC

SAN

SHD

SOL

SQC

WHG

CRW

GRO

LEM

LEZ

LIN

MUR

PLE

RJC

SPR

BLL

COD

CTL

GUG

OCT

PIL

POK

POL

SKA

WIT

DAB

DGX

GUX

HAD

MAC

MUL

RED

RJM

BLI

BSS

DGH

GFB

HKE

RJH

SCE

XXX

TBB effort

Spatial distribution of species Clusters frm VMS data

-10 -8 -6 -4 -2

47

48

49

50

51

52

53

Page 9: Industry data collection - nwwac.org and Presentations/2017/Edinburgh... · Thoughts on Industry data collection Sven Kupschus monitoring design and analysis cefas, UK a formal position,

What does history say about time series and scientific to commercial gear comparisons? My personal experiences:

• Historic log book comparison with assessment.

• Reverse the move from industry charter to research vessel.

• GOV commercial gear comparison North Sea, winter and summer trials and the effect of population density.

• Sole and plaice FSP in the western channel.

• Irish Sea Sole and the chain-mat versus open gear debate.

Page 10: Industry data collection - nwwac.org and Presentations/2017/Edinburgh... · Thoughts on Industry data collection Sven Kupschus monitoring design and analysis cefas, UK a formal position,
Page 11: Industry data collection - nwwac.org and Presentations/2017/Edinburgh... · Thoughts on Industry data collection Sven Kupschus monitoring design and analysis cefas, UK a formal position,
Page 12: Industry data collection - nwwac.org and Presentations/2017/Edinburgh... · Thoughts on Industry data collection Sven Kupschus monitoring design and analysis cefas, UK a formal position,

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

Year

F

UK-CBT-earlyUK-CBT-lateUK-COTUK-WEC-BTSQ1SWBeam-offsetFSP-UK

F

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

01000

3000

5000

Year

SS

B [t]

UK-CBT-earlyUK-CBT-lateUK-COTUK-WEC-BTSQ1SWBeam-offsetFSP-UK

SSB

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

02000

6000

10000

Recru

its ['0

00s]

UK-CBT-earlyUK-CBT-lateUK-COTUK-WEC-BTSQ1SWBeam-offsetFSP-UK

Recruitment

Page 13: Industry data collection - nwwac.org and Presentations/2017/Edinburgh... · Thoughts on Industry data collection Sven Kupschus monitoring design and analysis cefas, UK a formal position,
Page 14: Industry data collection - nwwac.org and Presentations/2017/Edinburgh... · Thoughts on Industry data collection Sven Kupschus monitoring design and analysis cefas, UK a formal position,
Page 15: Industry data collection - nwwac.org and Presentations/2017/Edinburgh... · Thoughts on Industry data collection Sven Kupschus monitoring design and analysis cefas, UK a formal position,

What have gear trials done? My experiences • Western channel sole selectivity trials.

• Simple to do with few participants easy to collaborate.

• No direct outcome, but developed management options which resulted in a seat at the table in EU discussions. New management plan with industry support.

• Environmental gear comparisons and CCTV trials for catch sampling scheme.

• Mixing of objectives and incentivisation, question about objectives and scientific rigour, almost compromised management plan process.

• Results only used for single target species, probably had much more environmental benefits than were demonstrated. Is considered a success but changed very little in the fishery or management.

Page 16: Industry data collection - nwwac.org and Presentations/2017/Edinburgh... · Thoughts on Industry data collection Sven Kupschus monitoring design and analysis cefas, UK a formal position,

What have survival studies done (theoretical)?

• Survival studies in response to the EU landings obligation but mixed objectives with quota incentives for high discard stocks.

• Some fisheries are now exempt from landings obligation weakening its objectives to incentivise fishermen to catch fish they cannot land (under sized and over quota)

• Short term gains in extra quota for historically discarded catches

• Long-term benefits are much less clear from a scientific perspective

Page 17: Industry data collection - nwwac.org and Presentations/2017/Edinburgh... · Thoughts on Industry data collection Sven Kupschus monitoring design and analysis cefas, UK a formal position,

What have others concluded about industry data collection and the likelihood of successful cooperation (gains for industry)? (Stephen Mangi)

• Industry initiative. Managing expectation

• Trust and understanding. Clear simple well communicated objectives

• Leadership. Significant undertaking cannot be done on the side:

• Incentives. In kind, or long-term benefits OK, the real incentive is seeing the data being used and making a difference.

• Feedback. “the fishers need to hear and see that something is happening with their data”. Recognition of industry contribution.

Page 18: Industry data collection - nwwac.org and Presentations/2017/Edinburgh... · Thoughts on Industry data collection Sven Kupschus monitoring design and analysis cefas, UK a formal position,

What works for Sven where stock assessment and management exists? • Consider the path for data into the assessment.

• Be clear and upfront about what can be achieved.

• Costs and benefits must be fairly balanced across the fishery / stock especially for longer term project.

• Projects should be fishery / stock specific, one size fits all data collection will not work (Not policy aspiration)

• Work on bias problems. They tend to have a much greater impact on stock perception.

• If incentives are needed beyond cost recovery, ask why?

Page 19: Industry data collection - nwwac.org and Presentations/2017/Edinburgh... · Thoughts on Industry data collection Sven Kupschus monitoring design and analysis cefas, UK a formal position,

Where no or very basic assessment and management exists Sven concludes the scope is greater.

• Remember this is a long-term commitment.

• Usually small stocks or highly specialised fisheries which makes them ideal for industry data collection

• By-catch choke species are the exception.