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2372-26
Joint ICTP-IAEA Workshop on Sustainable Energy Development: Pathways and Strategies after Rio+20
Jawad Bashir
1 - 5 October 2012
Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission, Islamabad Pakistan
Indicators of Sustainable Development: Energy Sector of Pakistan
Indicators of Sustainable Development: Energy Sector of Pakistan.
Jawad Bashir Applied Systems Analysis Division
Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission P.O Box 1114, Islamabad, Pakistan
E-mail: [email protected]
Sustainable Energy Development: Pathways and Strategies after RIO +20.
Outlines of Presentation
Energy Sector Issues in Pakistan Historical Trends of ISED Findings
Issues Related to Energy Sector of Pakistan
Slow Development of Indigenous Energy Resources Shift from Hydro to Fossil Fuels in Electricity Generation Mix Domination of Fossil Fuels in Energy Mix Heavy Reliance on Imported Oil Inefficiencies and Lack of Conservation Strategies Lower Affordability and Access to Energy/Electricity Irrational Tariff Structure Degradation of the Environment
Exploitation of Hydro Power Resources
Year Installed Hydro Capacity Exploitation
MW % 1980 1,567 2.66 1983 2,547 4.32 1993 4,626 7.84 2002 5,041 8.54 2011 6,481 10.98
Technical Potential of Hydro Power = 59,000 MW
Source: WAPDA, Power System Statistics 2011 and earlier issues
Reserve to Production Ratio
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Oil
& G
as R
/P(Y
ears
)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
Coal
R/P
(Yea
rs)
GasOilCoal
Source: Pakistan Energy Yearbook 2011 and earlier issues
Diversification in Primary Energy Mix
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Shar
es
Oil (includes LPG) Gas Coal Hydro NuclearSource: Pakistan Energy Yearbook 2011 and earlier issues
1980: 13.1 million TOE 2011: 64.5 million TOE
Mix in Electricity Capacity and Generation
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Sha
res
Hydro Oil/Gas Coal Nuclear
Sources: Pakistan Energy Yearbook 2011 and earlier issues WAPDA, Power Systems Statistics 2011 and earlier issues
Capacity Mix Generation Mix
1980: 3,518 MW 2011: 22,477 MW
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010S
hare
s
Hydro Oil Gas Coal Nuclear
1980: 14.9 TWh 2011: 94.4 TWh
Ratio of Final Energy* to Primary Energy
62%
64%
66%
68%
70%
72%
74%
76%
1980 1990 2000 2010
%
* Including Non-Energy Use Source: Pakistan Energy Yearbook 2011 and earlier issues
Energy Import Dependence
30.3
31.3 33.9 33.4 35.0 38.5 27.5
79.089.4
82.278.0 79.3
84.5 79.2
0
20
40
60
80
100
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
%
Energy Import DependenceImported Oil Share
Source: Pakistan Energy Yearbook 2011 and earlier issues
Efficiency in Electricity Sector
29.6
25.0
23.221.6
20.3
33.334.0
26.1
28.2
33.9
36.3
30.6
28.4
16.6
25.4
27.8
31.5
23.9
21.321.0
16
21
26
31
36
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
%Efficiency of Thermal GenerationT&D Losses
Sources: Pakistan Energy Yearbook 2011 and earlier issues WAPDA, Power Systems Statistics 2011 and earlier issues
Energy Use per Unit of GDP*
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
kGO
E/00
0 R
s.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
KW
h/00
0 R
s.
Primary Energy Final Energy Electricity
Sources: Pakistan Energy Yearbook 2011 and earlier issues Pakistan Economic Survey 2011 and earlier issues
* At Constant Prices of Year 2010-11
Energy/Electricity Use per Capita
161105
127
539
368
222
440
1134GDP (US$* /Capita)
Electricity (KWh/capita)
Final Energy(KGOE/capita)
Primary Energy(KGOE/capita)
19802011
* At Constant Prices of Year 2010-11
Sources: Pakistan Energy Yearbook 2011 and earlier issues Pakistan Economic Survey 2011 and earlier issues
Energy Intensities of Industrial Sector
3
4
5
6
7
8
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
KGO
E/00
0 Rs
.
3
4
5
6
7
8
KWh/
000
Rs.
EnergyElectricity
Sources: Pakistan Energy Yearbook 2011 and earlier issues Pakistan Economic Survey 2011 and earlier issues
Energy Intensity of Agriculture Sector
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
KGO
E/00
0 Rs
.
0
1
2
3
4
5
KWh/
000
Rs.
EnergyElectricity
Sources: Pakistan Energy Yearbook 2011 and earlier issues WAPDA, Power Systems Statistics 2011 and earlier issues
Energy Intensity of Service Sector
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
KG
OE/
000
Rs.
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
KW
h/00
0 R
s.
FuelElectricity
Sources: Pakistan Energy Yearbook 2011 and earlier issues Pakistan Economic Survey 2011 and earlier issues
Access to Electricity
020406080
100Share of Household with Electricity
Urban 71.04 93.14Rural 14.66 60.07Total 30.58 70.46 85.43
1980 1998 2011
Sources: 1998 Census Report of Pakistan WAPDA, Power Systems Statistics 2011
Access to Piped Natural Gas
0
20
40
60Share of Household with Natural Gas Connections
Urban 22.11 58.14Rural 0.30 2.83Total 6.46 20.19
1980 1998
Gas connection per million of population
Index of Gas connection
1992 13,926 100 1998 22,973 165 2011 36,102 259
Sources: Pakistan Energy Yearbook 2011 and earlier issues Pakistan Economic Survey 2011 and earlier issues 1998 Census Report of Pakistan
Household Expenditure on Fuel and Electricity
Pakistan
0.3%
0.8%
0.8%
0.1%
0.4%
0.7%
1.4%
0.30%
0.71%
0.22%
3.94%
LPG
Gas
Kerosene
Electricity
200519911979
Urban
0.5%
0.9%
1.4%
0.2%
1.0%
0.3%
2.1%
0.27%
1.52%
0.60%
4.72%
LPG
Gas
Kerosene
Electricity
200519911979
Rural
0.8%
0.3%
0.1%
0.9%
0.9%
0.02%
0.31%
0.11%
0.34%
3.36%
LPG
Gas
Kerosene
Electricity
200519911979
Sources: Household Integrated Economic Survey 2004-05 HESS Survey 1993. Household Income and Expenditure Survey,1979
Energy Prices for Household
0
500
1000
1500
2000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Rs./M
illio
n BT
U
100
300
500
700
900
1100
Cons
umer
Pric
e In
dex
KeroseneElectricityNatural GasCPI
Sources: NEPRA Pakistan Economic Survey WAPDA, Power Systems Statistics
There have been 27, 20 and 42 fold increase in price of Kerosene, Electricity and Gas respectively
0500
100015002000250030003500400045005000
1980 1990 2000 2010
Rs./M
illio
n BT
U
100200300400500600700800900100011001200
Cons
umer
Pric
e In
dex
ElectricityNatural GasCPI
Energy Prices for Commercial Sector
Sources: NEPRA Pakistan Economic Survey WAPDA Power Systems Statistics
There have been 17 and 20 fold increase in price of Electricity and Gas respectively
Energy Prices for Industrial Sector
0200400600800
10001200140016001800200022002400260028003000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Rs./M
illio
n BT
U
10020030040050060070080090010001100120013001400
GDP
Def
lato
r
FOElectricityNatural Gas GDP Deflator
Sources: NEPRA Pakistan Economic Survey WAPDA Power Systems Statistics
There have been 18, 38 and 47 fold increase in price of Electricity, FO and Gas respectively
Energy Prices for Transport Sector
0
300
600
900
1200
1500
1800
2100
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Rs./M
illio
n BT
U
10020030040050060070080090010001100
Cons
umer
Pric
e In
dexHSD
GasolineCNGCPI
Sources: NEPRA Pakistan Economic Survey WAPDA Power Systems Statistics
There have been 27 and 15 fold increase in price of HSD and Gasoline respectively
Energy Prices for Agriculture Sector
0200400600800
10001200140016001800200022002400
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Rs./M
illio
n BT
U
10020030040050060070080090010001100120013001400
GDP
Def
lato
r
HSDLDOElectricityGDP Deflator
Sources: NEPRA Pakistan Economic Survey WAPDA Power Systems Statistics
There have been 25, 27 and 28 fold increase in price of LDO, HSD and Electricity respectively
Highlights of End-Use Prices
Price of All Energy Products Increased in Real Terms Biggest Increase in Real Price of Gas Price for Industrial Sector Second Biggest Increase in Real Price of Gas Price for Household Sector Third Biggest Increase in Real Price of FO for Industrial Sector The Minimum Increase in Real Price of Gasoline in Transport Sector
GHG Emissions per Capita from Energy Sector and per Unit of GDP
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1980 1990 2000 2010
Kg/c
apita
0.50.60.70.80.91.01.11.21.31.41.5
kG/U
S$*
GHGs/Capita GHGs/GDP
* At Constant Prices of Year 2010-11
Sources: Based on Pakistan Energy Yearbooks IPCC Methodologies (1996)
SO2 Emissions by Sector
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Thou
sand
Ton
nes
Househod Industry TransportAgriculture Commercial Power
Sources: Based on Pakistan Energy Yearbooks IPCC Methodologies (1996)
NOx Emissions by Sector
050
100150
200250
300350
400
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Thou
sand
Ton
nes
Househod Industry TransportAgriculture Commercial Power
Sources: Based on Pakistan Energy Yearbooks IPCC Methodologies (1996)
Findings (1/3) Improvement in energy accessibility; particularly of electricity in the household sector Switching over to natural gas from furnace oil for power generation Induction of CNG in the transport sector Rational pricing of natural gas and electricity Rationalization of electricity prices to make those reflective of fuel cost Efficiency improvement in electricity generation.
Energy import dependence was 39% of total primary energy in 2000 which decrease to 30% of total primary energy in 2011 due to intensive use of natural gas as its share increased from 41% in the year 2000 to 48% in 2011. Some of these policies in the past have led to :
Improvement in quality of life Energy security Efficient use of energy Reduction in environmental burden of energy use.
Findings (2/3)
Finding (3/3)
But all these positive impacts are not sustainable as there has been a continuous decline in the reserve to production ratio of natural gas which implies that the above mentioned improvements are not sustainable.
Thank You