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Date 18.11.2013

India and climate talks imperatives

By all accounts, no dramatic developments are to be expected from te 1!t edition of te "onference of

#arties $"%#& of te 'nited (ations )rame*ork "onvention on "limate "an+e $'()"""& tat started in

arsa* last *eek. But it is +enerally ackno*led+ed tat te key issue at arsa*, even if tere are many

oter si+nificant sub-ects on te a+enda, centres around movin+ for*ard te ne+otiations on te Durban

#latform for nanced /ction $D#/& initiated at "%# 1 t*o years a+o.

It is *idely understood tat te Durban #latform *as a +amecan+er, settin+ te sta+e for decisive climate

action based on clear commitments to emissions reduction from all nations. ubseuently, te discussions in

te /d4oc orkin+ 5roup on te Durban #latform $/D#& ave resulted in demandin+ timeline for

acievin+ its aims, includin+ a draft text to be produced by te "%# in 2016, a +lobal meetin+ of eads of

states of all nations to be convened by te 'nited (ations ecretary 5eneral to pus for*ard suc ana+reement, and a final a+reement to be reaced by "%# 21 in 2017.

ile it is not a fore+one conclusion tat te D#/ *ill acieve its stated +oals by 2017, tere are no*

additional factors conducive to reacin+ a +lobal a+reement. ven if no individual extreme climate event can

be attributed exclusively to increased +lobal *armin+, increasin+ a*areness of te impact of climatedriven

disasters, suc as ypoon 4aiyan and te 'ttarakand flas floods, is contributin+ to a +lobal reco+nition of

te ur+ency of a climate deal, amon+ +overnments as *ell as civil society. i+nificantly, te release of te

)ift /ssessment 9eport $/97& of te Inter+overnmental #anel on "limate "an+e $I#""& over te next

several monts, culminatin+ in te release of te final syntesis report of all its findin+s next year, *ill add to

te sense of ur+ency.

/t te '()""", te uropean 'nion as been te most active in pusin+ for*ard te a+enda of te Durban

#latform, layin+ out in increasin+ detail te frame*ork and broad outlines of its content and a metodolo+y

for securin+ commitments tat *ould ensure an effective treaty. It as been -oined in tis effort by many

/frican nations, especially out /frica, and ave te stron+ support of te islandstates of te *orld :

support tat *as vociferously expressed at Durban in 2011. e 'nited tates as pursued a t*otrack policy

*it respect to te D#/. %n te one and, te '.. insists tat it *ould undertake only suc emissions

reductions as it deems feasible, a strate+y tat is referred to as te ;bottom up< approac in te +lobal climate

discourse. %n te oter and, it as not esitated to support te uropean 'nion, te /frica 5roup and te

/lliance of mall Island tates $/%I& in teir efforts to ave a bindin+ climate a+reement *it assi+ned

commitments to all nations, especially *en suc commitments are to be imposed on "ina and India.India=s interests

ere do India=s interests lie in te matter of a +lobal climate a+reement> ere can be no doubt tat India

needs an early climate a+reement, for t*o reasons. %n te one and, tere is increasin+ evidence tat

uncecked +lobal *armin+ *ould lead to increasin+ly severe effects in several sectors, especially a+riculture

and *ater, apart from te increased freuency of extreme climate events. e enanced climate variability

tat accompanies +lobal *armin+ *ill ave serious impacts on Indian farmers, te bulk of *om are small

olders *o even today suffer te conseuences of *eater and climate socks, before te effects of +lobal

*armin+ ave risen to more alarmin+ levels. /n early climate a+reement *it te potential to restrict +lobal

avera+e temperature rise to at least 2 de+rees "enti+rade, if not lo*er, is certainly a necessity. /n early and

effective limit on +reenouse +as emissions *ill also contribute to lo*erin+ te need, and associated costs,

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for climate can+e adaptation, *ic oter*ise could be considerable.

/t te same time, India needs adeuate atmosperic ;space< in terms of allo*ed carbon emissions to pursue

its development. ven in a i+ly optimistic scenario in *ic rene*able ener+y rapidly takes up te bulk of

te reuirements for sectors suc as domestic li+tin+ and eatin+, a+riculture, and all ener+y needs of small

scale establisments, India *ill still need fossil fuels for a considerable time until reliable sources of cleanener+y become available for lar+escale development. ven infrastructure needs for adaptation *ill reuire

suc emissions.

e I#""=s /97 report as brou+t to te centresta+e of discussion te notion of a +lobal carbon bud+et,

referrin+ to te cumulative carbon dioxide emissions into te atmospere, from te be+innin+ of te industrial

era till te end of te 21st century, tat are permissible, if te +lobal temperature rise is to be kept belo* 2

de+rees ". )or a ?? per cent probability of keepin+ te rise in +lobal avera+e temperature belo* tis limit, te

*orld is allo*ed approximately 1000 billion tonnes of carbon emissions $takin+ account solely of carbon

dioxide&. But te nub of te issue is te euitable distribution of tis space. In per capita terms, or indeed by

several oter measures of euitable distribution as *ell, te developed countries ave already substantially

exceeded teir fair sare of tis +lobal bud+et. /s a conseuence, a lar+e number of developin+ countries,

includin+ "ina but especially India, *ill ave to make do *it less tan teir fair sare of te +lobal carbon

space as teir national carbon bud+ets for te future, if indeed +lobal *armin+ as to be kept in ceck.

@opdo*n= a+reement

o maximise te developin+ countries= access to te +lobal carbon bud+et, an early ;topdo*n< a+reement to

impose constraints on te developed nations= consumption of carbon ;space< in te atmospere is an obvious

necessity.ven more obviously, an approac based on ;voluntary< commitments to emissions reduction by

developed and developin+ countries *ould not address India=s needs.

In vie* of tese considerations, it is surprisin+ tat (e* Deli=s +uidelines for its arsa* dele+ation sould

set aside India=s lon+standin+ commitment to treatin+ te atmospere as a +lobal commons, to be saredeuitably by all nations, and instead back te ;voluntary commitments< approac. #redictably, even before

tis approac as been articulated, it as run into rou+ *eater. e ' is of course fully a*are of te

+lobal carbon bud+et and ence demands tat te +ap bet*een te sum of all voluntary commitments and te

allo*ed +lobal bud+et as to made up by furter emissions reductions tat all nations ave to a+ree to. is

demand, as *ell as India=s response tat te +ap must be made up by te developed nations based on

istorical responsibility for emissions, brin+s us back to *at is indeed a ;topdo*n< approac.

/t te eart of te 5overnment of India=s current confusion lies its un*illin+ness to ackno*led+e tat in an

eventual +lobal a+reement, all countries ave to soulder some part of te burden, even *ile any suc

burdensarin+ must be based on euity and climate -ustice in accordance *it te principle of common but

differentiated responsibilities.(e* Deli=s vie* currently is tat developin+ countries *ill ave no bindin+

commitments *atsoever even into te future, a vie* tat *ill increasin+ly isolate India from even oters in

te ranks of te 5. e inadeuacy of official India=s unappy approac is brou+t out by te fact tat it

as allo*ed te term ;euity reference frame*ork

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adeuate atmosperic ;space< in terms of allo*ed carbon emissions to pursue its development +oals. It needs

to take a proactive stance on tis

Date 20.11.2013

/59I"'A'9 /(D %ndin+ un+er and poverty reuires ma-or national policy initiatives in developin+ countries. e 'nited

(ations ecretary5eneral as articulated a broad ero un+er vision, endorsed and embraced as a priority by

national leaders in many developin+ countries in Aatin /merica, /frica and /sia. #roduction of food by small

cultivators in developin+ countries as a critical role to play in endin+ *orld un+er. But to increase support

for smallolder a+riculture in developin+ countries, a revision of orld rade %r+aniation $%& rules on

a+ricultural price support is necessary.

Developed countries ad very i+ support levels for a+riculture *en te 'ru+uay 9ound a+reement *as

si+ned in 1!!6. Despite restrictions imposed under te a+reement, most developed countries ave retained

i+ levels of support for a+riculture by siftin+ most of teir subsidies to te unlimited ;5reen Box< forms

of support, not restricted by te /+reement on /+riculture.

In contrast, o*in+ to fiscal constraints, developin+ countries +enerally ad muc lo*er levels of support for

a+riculture *en te a+reement *as si+ned. Due to constraints imposed by te /+reement, te levels of

support for a+riculture in most developin+ countries ave barely been allo*ed to increase since ten.

5reen Box subsidies in developed countries, altou+ not directly linked to levels of production, ave elped

teir farmers to innovate, invest and increase productivity by providin+ additional resources for investment

and by effectively reducin+ risks associated *it te investment. uc support as also extended social

protection to te countryside. %n te oter and, lackin+ comparable levels of support, cultivation by small

producers in developin+ countries as become even less viable and uncompetitive.

e % does not restrict 5reen Box types of support to a+riculture. 4o*ever, administrative and oterconstraints limit te possibility and feasibility of developin+ countries usin+ 5reen Box subsidies. %

provisions for policy instruments suc as crop insurance to be counted under 5reen Box are extremely

restrictive. 5reen Box measures suc as decoupled payments : lump cas transfers to farmers : are not

feasible in most developin+ countries because of domestic +overnance bottlenecks suc as te absence of

data, a lack of *elldefined land titles, prevalence of informal markets, freuent market failures, and

insufficient development of rural financial institutions.

9elevance of price support

/s a result, 5reen Box provisions only allo* most developin+ countries very limited scope for affordable

interventions. "ina, Brail and a fe* countries from te "airns +roup $for example, ailand and out

/frica& are te only ones tat ave reported substantial 5reen Box subsidies at different points of time. it

te notable exception of "ina, teir use as been minimal or as declined over time in most developin+

countries.

5iven te limited relevance of 5reen Box subsidies, price support remains an important instrument for

supportin+ smallolder a+riculture in developin+ countries. It as become an increasin+ly popular means for

miti+atin+ price volatility, *ic as become a ma-or concern since te price spikes of 2002008, 20102011

and 2012. "onsumer price subsidies combined *it public procurement and stockoldin+ elped miti+ate te

full impact of price spikes on consumers in several developin+ countries.

5lobal prices for a+ricultural commodities ave risen steeply since te 'ru+uay 9ound *as ne+otiated,

especially in te ne* century. e )/% food price index more tan doubled bet*een 2002 and 2012, risin+from 8!.! to 211.8.

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'nder te 'ru+uay 9ound a+reement, price support *as considered trade distortin+ and *as classified under

te ;/mber Box.< )or countries *itout a positive /++re+ate Ceasure of upport $/C&, /mber Box

subsidies *ere limited at te de minimis level, defined as five per cent of te current value of output for

developed countries and 10 per cent of te current value of output for developin+ countries.

irty countries tat reported i+er base levels of /mber Box subsidies at te time of te a+reement tan tede minimis limit, committed to scedules for brin+in+ /mber Box subsidies do*n to*ards te de minimis

limit.

'nder te current rules, te difference bet*een prices offered by a public procurement pro+ramme and prices

prevailin+ in 1!8?1!88 is multiplied by te total output potentially eli+ible for support $not te actual

uantity procured& to calculate te level of price support provided by a country. e price support tus

computed is considered a part of te /mber Box subsidies, sub-ect to te de minimis restriction.

ince current *orld price levels are muc i+er tan te 1!8?1!88 reference prices, any price support

provided at prices any*ere near current *orld market prices results in te violation of tede minimis

restrictions under current % rules.

e (int Cinisterial "onference of % is to be eld in Bali in te first *eek of December. e Bali

Cinisterial presents a crucial opportunity to brin+ about can+es in % rules so tat developin+ countries

can support small farmers and move to*ards endin+ un+er. 533 and oter +roups of developin+ countries

ave made several proposals over te last year demandin+ tat te % rules on price support be revised.

)our options

ese options sould be considered in te ne+otiations

reduce disparities in permissible a+ricultural support levels bet*een developed and developin+ countriesE

update reference prices $presently pe++ed at 1!8?1!88 nominal prices& to account for +lobal inflation in

food pricesE

compute levels of price support usin+ actual uantity procured rater tan total uantity eli+ible forprocurementE

provide exemption from restrictions for procurement on +rounds of food security or support for poor

producers.

/ppropriate restrictions can be introduced to ensure tat commodities tus procured are used only to miti+ate

volatility in domestic markets and for purposes of domestic food security. is can effectively prevent te

possibility of usin+ procured stocks to influence international markets.

It is important to move speedily to*ards a pra+matic and euitable resolution of te problem. e options

outlined above provide an opportunity to acieve real +ains to*ards te +oals of supportin+ smallolder

a+riculture and endin+ un+er. is *ill elp expedite te conclusion of te already protracted Doa 9ound

of trade ne+otiations on a more developmental basis.

Date .12.2013

/s a tearyeyed orld rade %r+anisation $%& director+eneral 9oberto /evedo ailed te landmark

trade deal at Bali, Indonesia, on aturday after five days of +ruellin+ ne+otiations, it *as India, led by

commerce minister /nand arma, *o *on plaudits for successfully pilotin+ te +randbar+ain for dra*in+

up a permanent solution to food subsidies.

e deal also makes it mandatory for member countries : as part of a trade facilitation a+reement : to cut

red tape for easier movement of +oods.

e benefits to te *orld economy are calculated to be bet*een F600 billion and F1 trillion by reducin+ costsof trade by bet*een 10G and 17G, increasin+ trade flo*s and revenue collection, creatin+ a stable business

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environment and attractin+ forei+n investments.

xistin+ rules capped te value of food subsidies at 10G of te value of production. But te *ay te support

is calculated at prices of more tan t*odecades a+o means many countries *ould find it more and more

difficult to stay *itin te limit, potentially attractin+ stron+ penalties from te trade body.

is *as te first ma-or reform a+reement in te %=s istory since it *as formed in 1!!7.Developed countries initially *anted a packa+e tat *ould allo* te flexibility of suc subsidies till four

years *itout penalties after *ic a permanent solution *ill be *orked out.

;e a+reement as ensured tat millions of poor farmers *ill feel secure tat te minimum support price

bein+ +iven by +overnments *ill not be called into uestion internationally,< an Indian official told 4.

;is is a notable contribution to te democratisation of te %. is *ill be in place till suc time a

permanent solution is found by te % membersip *ic alters te rules of business +overnin+

a+ricultural trade,< te official said.

is bar+ain *as critical for India to enable an unconstrained implementation of te '#/ +overnment=s

fla+sip food security pro+ramme tat le+ally entitles subsidised food+rains to nearly t*otirds of te

population *itout violatin+ rules defined by te %.

e ob-ectives of te trade facilitation deal are to speed up customs proceduresE make trade easier, faster and

ceaperE provide clarity, efficiency and transparencyE reduce bureaucracy and corruption, and use

tecnolo+ical advances.

A range of gains for Delhi at Ministerial

H )ood ecurity Aa* may pus India=s minimum support prices above % limits, but interim mecanism

provides safe+uards till % rules are corrected

H /+reement on rade )acilitation could boost India=s exportsH India speareads first a+reement in te nine Cinisterials eld after te Doa 9ound

H India +ains +lobal leadersip by +ettin+ a crucial poorric country imbalance corrected on a multilateral

forum

H upport subsidies to poor farmers across all developin+ countries +et safe+uards a+ainst % rules

H it Bali outcomes, Doa 9ound and terefore % remain alivuccess a tribute to (elson Candela, says

/nand arma

$read ep* article bali ministerial and food security&

EPWFood Security Uncertainties after Balie 5overnment of India claims victory at te %E it as only bou+t time.

)or t*o decades no*, every ma-or ministerial meetin+ of te orld rade %r+anisation $%& as ended

*it t*o identical announcements. %ne is for te India=s minister of commerce at te time to announce tat

te country as been successful in protectin+ its interests. e second is for te % ead at te time to

announce tat a balanced a+reement to te benefit of all countries as been reaced. Bot statements ave

al*ays been false, or at best alftruts. e same performance *as played out earlier tis mont at Bali,

Indonesia, at te end of te nint ministerial conference of te %. India claimed ;victory

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alf a defeat. e % claimed te *orld=s poor *ould benefit from Bali, *en in actual fact it oversa* a

set of trade a+reements tat ad ;imbalance< *ritten all over tem *it te developed countries *alkin+

a*ay *it te bi++est +ains.

)or India, te most important item on te a+enda *as to ensure tat its current public distribution system

$#D& as *ell as te ne* food security pro+ramme under te (ational )ood ecurity /ct $()/& *ould notave to be curtailed if te food subsidy breaced te ceilin+s decreed by te %=s 1!!6 /+reement on

/+riculture $/o/&. ile te /o/ does permit +overnments to operate public stockoldin+ pro+rammes and

provide foodstuffs to te poor at subsidised rates, te provisions of tat a+reement *ere sufficiently

ambivalent to cause concern. )or te past fe* years, India, as a member of te 5roup of 33 coalition at te

%, as been demandin+ tat te rules on public distribution pro+rammes, particularly te manner in *ic

te food subsidy is measured on te basis of outdated reference prices of 1!8?88, must be can+ed.

Jet, before Bali it seemed tat te best te ma-or tradin+ blocs suc as te 'nited tates $'& and te

uropean 'nion $'& *ere *illin+ to offer developin+ countries *as a t*oyear ;peace clause< durin+ *ic

food security pro+ramme tat crossed /o/ ceilin+s *ould not be taken before te %=s Dispute ettlement

Body. In te event India=s refusal at Bali to accept te peace clause option allo*ed it to extract some measure

of protection. at as been a+reed is tat no developin+ country=s food security pro+ramme can be

uestioned at te %, pendin+ ne+otiation of a permanent solution before te %=s 11t ministerial

meetin+ four years ence. is is still only a reprieve, even if better tan te peace clause option, for it leaves

India *it te 4erculean task of ne+otiatin+ an a+reement *ic *ould eiter keep food security

pro+rammes alto+eter outside % disciplines, or substantially raise te permissible food subsidy, or revise

te metodolo+y for measurin+ te subsidy. ven if suc a deal *ere to be ne+otiated, *at price *ould India

and oter developin+ countries ave to pay and *ere>

e text of te a+reement makes it clear tat subsidies provided under public food stockoldin+ pro+rammes

*ill not, for no*, be uestioned for any violation of te /o/, but it does not explicitly state tat tey *ill alsobe excluded from te purvie* of anoter % a+reement, tat *ic places limits on subsidies. is is

important for suc t*in protection *as provided to te ' and te ' under anoter peace clause inserted

into te 1!!6 /o/ and *ic *as in place for 10 years. o it is yet possible for India to find its expanded

#D under callen+e at te % for violatin+ te 1!!6 /+reement on ubsidies and "ountervailin+

Ceasures. en compared to te 2001 Doa Declaration on 9I# and #ublic 4ealt, an a+reement tat

made explicit te freedom tat developin+ countries ad under te %, te Bali text does indeed look

*eak.

/t Bali, India, alon+ *it all te oter members of te trade body also ad to si+n up for a compreensive

a+reement on trade facilitation. is % deal calls on countries to, broadly speakin+, simplify customs

procedures to permit te smooter flo* of +oods across borders. is *as of +reat interest to te ' for it

is Kessentially anoter route to +ain +reater access to markets in oter countries. In order to adere to te ne*

a+reement, te developed countries *ill ave to make minimal can+es to teir la*s and only modest

investments, te opposite *ill be te case for all developin+ country members, includin+ India. e trade

facilitation is a concrete ;acievement

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to explain *y it left it to te very end to salva+e some protection to te ()/. "ould it be tat in all te

cosyin+ up to asin+ton, (e* Deli si+nalled tat tis *as an area *ere it *as *illin+ to accommodate

' interests, only to *ake up at te last minute to te political costs tat suc a decision *ould entail>

Maitley vie* on bali)la++in+ issues tat could adversely impact India, Cr. Maitley referred to clause 6 under te eadin+ @/nti

"ircumventionNafe+uards.= ;is clause *as very miscievous and loaded a+ainst India. It ad te potential

to expose India=s food security pro+ramme to a ost of callen+es. It may extend to issues suc as *o

sould be re+arded as poor in India, *at sould be te nutritional support tat sould be extended to suc

poor people, *at sould be te uantum of subsidy tat sould be +iven and many oter related issues.