India pulses supply & demand outlook mr. sudhakar tomar

Review Of Pulse Markets: MIDDLE EAST with reference to INDIA-MIDDLE EAST Pulses Trade

INDIAPULSES SUPPLY & DEMAND OUTLOOK

Presented by

Sudhakar TOMARManaging Director

Pulses / IndiaSudhakar Tomar1

IPGA PULSES CONCLAVE19th 21st February, 2014, Goa , India

1

Area of Interest


2

Indias Growing Food Needs(1991 = 100)Courtesy - www.statpub.com

As average age and incomes rise food needs will grow

Know your INDIACovers population of 1. 22 Billion and area of 3.28 million sq km roughly the size of 1/3rd of CanadaEconomy 4.7 Trillion ( 3rd by PPP)18% of worlds population ( > 60% under 30 )2 % of worlds land (60% agricultural /30% irrigated) less than 3.5% of world renewable fresh water (Canada has 7% )Average per capita income : US$ 3851.00 (140th by PPP)Food Import bill US$ 25 Billion ( 5% of total imports)Employs >60% of work force in small scale agriculture


4

Pulses / IndiaSudhakar Tomar5India The fight between Nutrition Vs Calories

5

Know your INDIAPulses area : 25-27 Million Hectares 87% Rainfed with average annual rainfall of 1000 mm ( almost double of AAP of Saskatchewan)

Two Crop CyclesRabi ( Winter Crop) Harvesting - March/April ( 65%)Major Crops Chickpea , Lentil , PeaMajor Growers M.P (33 %) UP (19% ) , AP (11%) ( Maharashtra ( 9%)

Kharif (Monsoon Season) Harvesting Sept /October ( 35%)Major Crops : Mung Beans ,Pigeon Peas ,Black MatpeMajor Growers : Maharashtra (24%) Rajsthan (15%), UP(13%) , MP (10%)Pulses / IndiaSudhakar Tomar6

6

Global Pulses Calendar7

7

Pulses growing regions in India

Pulses value chain

How does India consume Pulses ?


How does India consume Pulses ?Versatile Flour Purees Sauces Salted & Sweet Snacks Drinks Breads CakesExtremely Versatile & Diversified usage : 11000 + DishesGoogle search yields >2.2 Million resultsPulses / IndiaSudhakar Tomar11

From CANADA to KOLKATAPulses / IndiaSudhakar Tomar12

12

Area Yields - ProductionPulses / IndiaSudhakar Tomar13

13


Pulses | Imports in first 9 months of 2013-14 season ( 000 MTs)

Pulses Second Advance Estimate Released on Valentines Day 14/02/2014


INDIA Supply & DemandPulses / IndiaSudhakar Tomar18

Source : Stat Publishing Canada

18

The great Indian Pulses Matrix Pulses / IndiaSudhakar Tomar19India is the largest exporter of Kabuli Chickpeas @ 175,000 MTs

The ever Devaluing Indian Rupee ( INR)Pulses / IndiaSudhakar Tomar20

52% Fall in 5 Years

AU$ 30% Fall in 5 Years

CA$ 18% Fall in 5 Years

20

Pulses | How much is too much ?

* The Great Indian Pulses Plan *To grow 32 Million MTs in 2030

Pulses / IndiaSudhakar Tomar22Masters of the gameIndian Institute of Agricultural Research (ICAR)Indian Institute of Pulses Research (IIPR)All IndiaCoordinated Research Projects (AICRPs) on Chickpeas, Pigeonpeas, Lentils & Beans How will they do it ?Crop Development SchemesNational Food Security Mission - Pulses(NFSM-Pulses),Rashtriya Krishi Vikas Yojana (RKVY) - National Agri Development SchemeMacroManagement of Agriculture (MMA),Integrated Scheme ofOilseeds, Pulses, Oil Palm & Maize (ISOPOM)Accelerated Pulses Production Program (A3P)2013-2014 Legume Cultivation Scheme for Gram Mono Crop Areas ( Budget 2013-2014 US$ 60 Million)

22

India Projected Pulse requirements 2012-2030 Pulses / IndiaSudhakar Tomar23

23

* The Great Indian Pulses Plan *To grow 32 Million MTs in 2030

Pulses / IndiaSudhakar Tomar24How really ?QuoteTo meet the projected requirement for 1.68 Billion Indians the productivity needs to uplift at 1361 kg per ha and about 3.million ha additional area has to be brought under pulses besides reducing the post-harvest losses.Unquote Increasing government procurement prices ( MSP) in realityBringing additional 3-5 Million Hectares under Pulses cultivation Improving yield from 700 Kg/Ha to 1361 Kg/Ha

24

Pulses / IndiaSudhakar Tomar25Estimating Supply & Demand Pulses in IndiaDISCLAIMERWARNINGBusiness is unpredictable and unsafe. The Internet is dangerous. Many blogs have been written about these dangers, and theres no way we can list them all here. Read the blogs.The Internet is covered in slippery slopes with loose, slippery and unpredictable footing. The RIAA can make matters worse. Patent trolls are everywhere. You may fall, be spammed or suffer a DOS attack. There are hidden viruses and worms. You could break your computer. There is wild code, which may be vicious, poisonous or carriers of dread malware. These include viruses and worms. E-mail can be poisonous as well. We dont do anything to protect you from any of this. We do not inspect, supervise or maintain the Internet, blogsphere, ISPs or other features, natural or otherwise.Real dangers are present even on the Web. E-commerce is not the mall. It can be, and is, steep, slippery and dangerous. Web features made or enhanced by humans, such as firewalls and spam filters (if any) can break, collapse, or otherwise fail catastrophically at any time. We dont promise to inspect, supervise or maintain them in any way. They may be negligently constructed or repaired. The web is unsafe, period. Live with it or stay away.Stay on trusted sites whenever possible. The terrain, in addition to being dangerous, is surprisingly complex. You may get lost. Carry food, water and an APU at all times.Ads for things you dont want and other objectionable content can arrive from nowhere. This can happen naturally, or be caused by people around you that are being used as bots. Spam and disgusting images of all sizes, including huge images, can arrive, or pop-up with no warning. Use of spam filters is advised for anyone approaching the Internet. They can be purchased or rented from us. They wont save you if you get hit by something big or on a port you left open. A whole DOS attack might collapse on you and squash you like a bug. Dont think it cant happen.Public opinion can be dangerous, regardless of the forecast. Be prepared with extra damage control, including press releases. Ticking off the blogsphere can kill you. The Streisand effect can turn a simple nastygram into a deathtrap.If you make hasty comments about those in high places (making unsupported comments that reduce the image of a person, often posted quickly and without thinking) without proper thought and, or allow your employees to do so, you are making a terrible mistake. Even if you know what youre doing, lots of things can go wrong and you may be sued for libel. It happens all the time.We do not provide rangers or security personnel. The other people on the web, including other visitors, our employees, agents, and guests, and anyone else who might sneak in, may be stupid, reckless, or otherwise dangerous. They may be mentally ill, criminally insane, drunk, using illegal drugs and/or armed with deadly malware and ready to use them. We arent necessarily going to do anything about it. We refuse to take responsibility.If you surf at work, you may become pre-occupied with it. This is true whether you are experienced or not, trained or not, equipped or not, though training and equipment may help. Its a fact, surfing at work is extremely dangerous. If you dont like it, surf at home. You really shouldnt be doing it anyway. We do not provide supervision or instruction. We are not responsible for, and do not track how much time you surf at work (although we could if we wanted to.) As far as we know, your employer may find out and send you plunging to unemployment. There are countless tons of loose management staff ready to be dislodged and fall on you or someone else. There are any number of extremely and unusually dangerous conditions existing on and around the Web, and elsewhere on the Internet. We may or may not know about any specific hazard, but even if we do, dont expect us to try to warn you. Youre on your own.Rescue services are not provided by us, and may not be available quickly or at all. Local computer geeks may not be equipped for or trained in hard drive recovery. If you are lucky enough to have somebody try to get rid of a virus or find that deleted file, they may be incompetent or worse. This includes your local computer store. We assume no responsibility. Also, if you decide to participate in a rescue of some other unfortunate, thats your choice. Dont do it unless you are willing to assume all risks.By entering our site, you are agreeing that we owe you no duty of care or any other duty. We promise you nothing. We do not and will not even try to keep the premises safe for any purpose. The premises are not safe for any purpose. This is no joke. We wont even try to warn you about any dangerous or hazardous condition, whether we know about it or not. If we do decide to warn you about something, that doesnt mean we will try to warn you about anything else. If we do make an effort to fix an unsafe condition, we may not try to correct any others, and we may make matters worse! We and our employees or agents may do things that are unwise and dangerous. Sorry, were not responsible. We may give you bad advice. Dont listen to us. In short, ENTER AND USE THIS SITE AT YOUR OWN RISK. And have fun!

25

Pulses / IndiaSudhakar Tomar26How do we estimate Supply & Demand numbers for Pulses in India

26

Domestic Retail Prices (Jan 2013-2014) Pulses / IndiaSudhakar Tomar27

Lentils Up Pigeon Peas UpMung Beans UpUrad Marginally UpYellow Peas & Chickpeas Down

27

Price OutlookPulses / IndiaSudhakar Tomar28

28


29


30

Emerging Trends 1. Farmers globally- will not grow pulses unless they can make as much or more money than growing other crops Battle for Acres will keep prices volatile

2. South Asian consumers will not buy more pulses unless they are as cheap or cheaper than other foods (or they become Fashionable / Desirable)As a result, all crops will follow same price pattern

3. Developing countries will improve average yields & reduce losses at farm and in logistics & storage chain

31

Emerging Trends 2

5. Changing ownership.Glencore + Viterra + ABBCargill + AWBAGT + Australian Milling Group + variousLegumex-Walker and so onArcher Daniels Midland $2.3 billion bid for Graincorp

6. Global supply chain getting shorter

( Example : India - 18 Large Exporters to India run their own Origination & Distribution in India )7. Intense Competition for market share

32

32

Emerging Trends 3

7. New Competitors. Ukraine, Russia other CIS countriesEmergence of North and East Africa (Ethiopia, Tanzania)= still emergent but catching up fast.8. Changing MarketsGrowing Indian middle class demanding quality Dramatic changes in ChinaHealth and Nutrition New Usage of Pulses pulses as quality and healthy Ingredient to food industry seems the new Mantra= Changed demand patterns33

33

AND SPECIAL MEANS OF TRANSPORTATION


So what is in it for me ? what

34

AND SPECIAL MEANS OF TRANSPORTATION


Grow more Pulses Eat more Pulses Trade more PulsesPROMOTE PULSESHelp Fight Hunger & Protein MalnutritionHelp Marginal FarmersGive way to Healthy livingSave your soil & environmentCombat Climate Change

35

AcknowledgementsCGIAR/ICARDAPulse Canada / Gordon BaconCommodity India / ForetellUSDABRIAN CLANCEY / STATPUBFAOSTAT /FAOWFPCICILS-IPTIC / Gavin Gibson The Directorate of Economics and Statistics (DES), Department of Agriculture, Government of India, New DelhiRetail Price Section, Directorate of Economics & Statistics,Ministry of Agriculture Government ofIndia, New Delhi.P K Joshi, Devesh Roy and P Kumar, K Inbasekar, R Chanda, A Negi, G Tripathi, V Sonkar, N Datta, B Mishra and P Parthasarty Raoof International Food Policy Research InstituteGlencore India / Pravin Dongre / Saurabh Bhartia / Anurag Tulshan / Dharmendra Vijaywargi / Anand Mandan / Sandip Burman Ray / Shahwar Khan 36

36

Thank you very much


HAKAN AGRO DMCC34th Floor , Tower BB2Mazaya Business AvenueJumeirah Lakes TowersP O Box 31489Dubai ( UAE)Email : [email protected] : www.hakanfoods.com

37

Documents

India pulses supply & demand outlook mr. sudhakar tomar