INDIA: POPULATION, ECONOMY, SOCIETY

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NATIONAL INCOME AND EXPENDITURE Bowes and Bowes

GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT (with special MacmiUan reference to developing economies)

India: Population, Economy, Society

R. H. Cassen Seniur Economist, Secretariat of the Independent Commission on International Development Issues, Geneva Fellow, Institute of Development Studies, University of Sussex Seniur Research Fellow, Centre for Overseas Population Studies, liJndon School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine

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Palgrave Macmillan

© R. H. Cassen 1978

All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted, in any form or by any means, without permission

First edition J 978 Reprinted 1980, 1982 ELBS edition first published 1982

Published by THE MACMILLAN PRESS LTD London and Basingstoke Companies and representatives throughout the world

ISBN 978-0-333-22016-0 (hardcover) ISBN 978-0-333-29509-0 (paperback)

ISBN 978-0-333-34222-0 ISBN 978-1-349-06522-6 (eBook) DOI 10.1007/978-1-349-06522-6

The paperback edition of this book is sold subject to the condition that it shall not, by way of trade or otherwise, be lent, resold, hired out, or otherwise circulated without the publisher's prior consent, in any form of binding or cover other than that in which it is published and without a similar condition including this condition being imposed on the subsequent purchaser

To my mother and father and my brother

Contents Figures and Tables Priface

1 BACKGROUND Pre-census population estimates The first census and after Malthus The demographic transition The historical demographic transition: England Mortality Fertility France Japan The demographic transition today

2 FERTILITY, MORTALITY, MIGRATION AND

IX

Xl

3 5 9

1 1

12

13 21

33 41 45

PROJECTIONS 51 Factors affecting fertility 51 Mortality: disease and malnutrition 78 The level and trend of fertility and mortality 110

Migration and urbanisation 1 19 Population projections 127

3 HEALTH AND FAMILY PLANNING Background The I.U.D. Sterilisation The condom, abortion and other methods Family planning and fertility The 1976 'National Population Policy' and beyond Health services and health

4 POPULATION AND THE ECONOMY Recent economic history Macroeconomics of population The condition of the people Food, population and rural development Macroeconomics of distribution Conclusions

Vlll Contents

5 THE FUTURE OF INDIAN SOCIETY 280 Revolt and revolution 28, India and China: China's population 300 India and China: economic performance 309 Future prospects 3 I7 Concluding observations 328

Appendix A: Demographic glossary 340 B: The world's countries - crude birth and death

rates, '970 343

Notes 346 Bibliographies 379 Index 4'3

Figures and Tables

Page Figure 1.1 Growth of the population of India and rate of

growth, 1800 to 197 1 7 1.2 England and Wales, birth rate, death rate and total

population, 1800 to 1960 32 1.3 France, birth rate, death rate and total population,

I 77 I to 1950 40 1.4 Japan, birth rate, death rate and total population,

1880 to 1960 44 1.5 The World's countries -crude birth and death

rates, 1970 47 2.1 Population pyramids for India, for 1971,2001 and

2021 140 2.2 Net reproduction rate projection 142 2.3 Mediaeval mortality projection 143 3.1 All-India family planning performance by method 170 4.1 Capital and labour 232 4.2 India: foodgrains and population 259

Table 1.1 Population of India, 1871-1971 7 2.1 Effect of raising age at marriage 54 2.2 Rural birth and death rates by States (average

1970-72) 62 2.3 Discounted present value of child earnings 64 2.4 Probabilities for child contribution to parental

income 71 2.5 Proportion of pre-school children, nutritional

status by age, Punjab 93 2.6 Intake of calories as per cent of ICMR recom-

mended allowances 95 2.7 Calorie allowances for moderately active

populations 99 2.8 Distribution of calories calculated from Income

shares 101

2.9 Death by cause - Model Registration Sample data, 19~ I~

2.10 Age specific death rates, average 1968--9 (Rural) 115

x Figures and Tables

Page Table 2.11 Crude birth and death rates and expectation of life

at birth - various estimates I 16 2.12 Male and female baseline lifetables (1966-70) I 16 2.13 1971 Population ofIndia: distribution by age and

sex 117 2.14 Population of Bombay 1951-71 124 2.15 Size class of towns and population in 1961 and 1971 126 2.16 Projections - various sources 128 2.17 I.B.R.D. projections: assumptions as applied to

India 131 2.18 Assumed courses of fertility and mortality decline

in new population projections 133 2.19 Projected population totals - India 1971-2021 134 2.20 Projected crude birth and death rates - India

1971-2020 135-6 2.21 Projection (a) Ultra-fast fertility decline, fast mor-

tality decline 137 2.22 Projection (b) Medium fertility decline, slow mor-

tality decline; Projection (c) Medium-fast fertility and mortality declines 138

2.23 Projected population for 1986, by main age groups 140 2.24 200 I and 202 I population of India: distribution by

age and sex 144 3.1 All-India family planning performance - by

method 171 3.2 Health indicators by States 194 3.3 Distribution of A.N.Ms by States 196 3.4 Health sector: Draft and Revised Fifth Plan outlay 199 4.1 Consumption by fractile groups: rural India 240 4.2 Agricultural production; Net availability of

foodgrains 257 4.3 Foodgrains output, actual and 'trend' 258 4·4 Projected population and labour force 1976-2021 274

Appendix B The World's countries - crude birth and death rates, 1970

Preface

My main purpose in writing this book has been to give an intelligible account of India and its contemporary problems, seen mainly from a population point of view. I have been particularly motivated by a number of common views about India which have repeatedly been expressed to me. How often, returning from a stay there, I have been asked, 'Don't you find India terribly depressing?' - A question impossible to answer; nat­urally there are in India scenes of appalling human deprivation to be witnessed and, if one has followed the country's fortunes over the years, one cannot feel enthusiasm about the pace of change. Yet a person who knows only the miseries ofIndia does not know India. I fear I may add something to this false picture since the other things that make the experience ofIndia vivid, indeed moving, have little place here.

Another question I often face is, 'Isn't India hopeless?' This question is posed sometimes by people whose interest in India is merely casual. But I have also encountered it in governmental circles and international agencies among people concerned with aid. I usually ask what the question really signifies; after all India is going to continue to exist. When pressed those who put the question often admit that they really mean they do not wish to contemplate India's problems for any length of time. Readers'of this book will not be given any easy reassurance; but I hope they will derive a sense that, while the problems are great, they can be made less so. I am not in the business offeeding the public's appetite for nightmares which so many books on population themes do. India's situation calls for, and repays, analysis, not alarmism. A further purpose is to clarify some of the issues about the population question itself. What is the point of making efforts at development when everything is absorbed by the growth of numbers? Or, why bring down the death rate, it only means more people? These misconceptions are put in their place. Family planning is often said to have 'failed' in India - that too is a misconception, even if 'success' has not been conspicuous either.

The book has five parts. The first chapter gives some background to the problem of population change and the way it has occurred, mainly outside India. The second looks at current and future characteristics of India's population. The third examines the family planning programme. In the fourth the interrelationships between economic development and pop­ulation change are explored, the character of economic progress in India and how population has affected it and been affected by it. In the last

XlI Priface

chapter the subject is the prospect for social and political development; some reflections on China have been included for comparative purposes. I have tried to pursue three aims at once: cover a wide range of topics, satisfy scholarly opinion, and be read by the non-specialist. Inevitably any particular reader will find an excess of material on one topic and not enough on another. My three aims were practically irreconcilable, but reflected an ambition I feel was worthwhile even if finally out of reach. I have avoided economic jargon wherever possible. The use of demographic terms proved unavoidable but they are explained in an appendix. Throughout I have tried to keep up some sort of narrative pace, frequently confining qualifying statements or statistical evidence to the notes if they would otherwise have made the text indigestible - this is especially true of Chapter 4, the notes to which are often substantive, unlike the other chapters, where they mainly supply references and points of detail.

The list of people whose help I must acknowledge is lengthy - not surprisingly; I have covered a range of subject matter which no individual could master and have frequently relied on others. Those who have read parts of my manuscript, supplied materials, answered queries or reduced my ignorance in helpful discussions include the following: J. Baneth, P. K. Bardhan, A. Barnett, B. Berelson,J. N. Biraben,J. G. Blacker, A. Bose, R. Briggs, T. Byres, D. N. Chaudhry, P. Chaudhuri, S. Cole-King, B. Dasgupta, M. Das Gupta, P. Demeny, R. P. Dore, O. Gish, P. Isenman, H. Joshi, S. Lateef, J. Mellor, J. W. Miller, R. Miller, M. Moore, R. Muscat, D. Nayyar, P. R. Payne, N. Perlman, V. Raleigh, S. Ramalinga­swamy, N. Ruck, W. G. Runciman, A. K. Sen, I. Sutherland, C. Taylor, P. Visaria, D. Winch, J. Wyon. lowe a still greater debt to four people who have changed my mind or helped me to clarify my views over a period of years: Clive Bell and Michael Lipton of the Institute of Development Studies, Ronald Freedman of the University of Michigan and Ron Gray of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. Four people, Helen Moody, Mohinder Puri, Bhanwar Singh and Penelope Sanger have most efficiently given me bibliographical and other assistance. Tim Dyson, who started as my research assistant, but has become my colleague and collaborator in various enterprises, deserves a special vote of thanks for putting his demographic expertise generously at my disposal. Pauline Baxter, Dorothy Boyes, Betty Dodson, Francine Spencer and Sandra Yelf are only some of the many who have struggled with my handwriting and turned it into typescript; I am grateful to each of them, but most of all to Ethel Royston who not only did her share of that but took cheerful care of many troublesome parts of my life. I also wish to thank the library staffs of the Institute of Development Studies - Sheila Howard most of all- and of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine for prolonged and unfailing assistance.

In an entirely special category I must place Lavraj and Dharma Kumar who had nothing to do with the contents of this book but much to do with

Preface Xlll

my well-being while I worked on it. They almost became my family in New Delhi and, if I have any sense of not being a complete stranger in India, lowe it above all to their repeated kindness and generosity.

I must express my gratitude to the Centre Culturel Intemationale at Cerisy-Ia-Salle and the Wingspread Foundation of Racine, Wisconsin for their hospitality - a conference organised by the latter proved a valuable occasion for meeting with others interested in India. Naturally my greatest institutional debt is to the Institute of Development Studies at the University of Sussex which provided me with facilities for work, in­tellectual stimulus, and a rewarding sense of commitment rare in the academic world. I should add that the Institute under its Director, RichardJolly, tolerated my absorption in my own work to a degree that I did not, perhaps, entirely deserve. I have left two people to the last: one to whom, above all, lowe a considerable share of such merit as this book possesses, is David Glass of the London School of Economics and Political Science. He read most of the manuscript prior to its completion, a good deal of it when he was heavily burdened with other things. Throughout my writing of it the thought of presenting it for his formidable scrutiny has raised my sights and forced me to attempt to overcome my deficiencies. At an early stage, when I told him of the book's intended scope, he warned me that what I was trying to do was 'impossible'. I believe he meant by this that I would never satisfy his standards of scholarship in tackling so many subjects. I am certain that he must now think his warning was fully justified; I have not even satisfied my own standards. But while I have been writing I have had the frequent benefit of his help, his encouragement and occasionally some salutary discouragement, all of which have been invaluable to me. Lastly someone who has inspired any number of people working on India and whose early death in 1973 was a painful blow: Pitambar Pant. One could not be in the vicinity of the Indian Planning Commission without being aware of him as one of its major intellects whose drive and enthusiasm acted as a constant challenge. I shall not forget the occasion when I defended some argument I had advanced with the remark that he had asked for my opinion, not for a scientific treatise. 'You must be objective', he replied 'even in your dreams'. He too would undoubtedly have found this book wanting and not only for my inability to follow that injunction. It only remains for me to reflect that, despite the distinguished help I have received, I doubt that I have eradicated all error; I have certainly persisted in some opinions against good advice. Writing about India, it seems, one may never do more than provide 'just enough light to see the darkness by'.