India Pak Iran Pipeline 091000

8/4/2019 India Pak Iran Pipeline 091000

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INDIA PAK IRAN PIPELINE


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WORLD ENERGY CONSUMPTIONWORLD ENERGY CONSUMPTION


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WORLD MAJ PETROLEUM PRODUCING

AREAS

WORLD MAJ PETROLEUM PRODUCING

AREAS


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THE PROJECT

BACKGROUND


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BACKGROUND

REALITY

PEAKOIL - 1970

INDIA, A NET ENERGY DEFICIENT COUNTRY

SCRAMBLE F

OR SECURE ENERGY S

OURCES BEGUN

IRAQ

COUNTRIES LEFT BEHIND IN OIL CONTRACTS NOWSECURINGOIL IN VOLATILE REGIONS SUDAN, NIGERIA,ANGOLA, IRAN

DISCOVERYOF CASPIAN OIL AND GAS

IPI

SOUTH PARS GAS FIELD DISCOVERED - 1988

PROJECT CONCEPTUALIZED -1989

MOU SIGNED -1993

CABINET APPROVAL -2005

ENERGY SIT


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THE ENERGY SIT


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WORLD ENERGY SOURCES

WHY GAS


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WHY GAS

LEVEL OF REMAINING RESERVES

ENVIRONMENT ISSUES

RELATIVE VERSATALITY

ECONOMICAL

INDIAN GAS SIT


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ANTICIPATED PRODUCTION PROFILESOURCE DGHC


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DEMAND -SUPPLY LONG TERM

ONE PERCENT RES ADDED ANNUALLY


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DEMAND-SUPPLY LONG TERM

2% RES ADDED ANNUALLY


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DEMAND-SUPPLY GAPSOURCE: DGHC, GOI


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SIGNIFICANCEOF IRANIAN GAS

INDIAN DOMESTIC SUPPLY : 170 MMSCMD

IMPORT : 80 MMSCMD

TOTAL SUPPLY : 250MMSCMD

ADDING:18(IRAN)LNG)+9(ENNOREMYSORE)+60(IPI)+40(TAPI)

=127MMSCD.

GRAND SUPPLY =250+127 =377MMSCD

ESTIMATED DEMAND =263 -314MMSCMD

SURPLUS :377-314=63

IRAN SUPPLY IS 60 +18 =78 OR 30+18=48

IPI GAS :UPTO 16% OF SUPPLY.


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WHY PIPELINE THROUGH PAK

OPTIONS

LNG SHIPMENT

DEEP SEA PPL

SHALLOW WATER PPL

OVERLAND

COST OF MAINT

OPTIONS FOR IRAN ?


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ALTERNATE ROUTE FOR IRAN GAS


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INDIAN OIL IMPORTS -SOURCES


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REGIONAL PLAYERSREGIONAL PLAYERS


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VIEWED FROM TEHRAN

DEBILITATING SANCTIONS- IPI A POTENTIAL SOURCE OF

CAPITAL

ASSURED MARKET OVER LAND ROUTE.

TRIPLE WIN : ECONOMIC, POLITICAL, AND STRATEGIC GAINS

OPPORTUNITY TO PROVIDE TRANSIT TO CASPIAN OIL AND GAS

IRANIAN EAST WARD ENERGY MOVES ARE LARGELY DRIVEN

BY DIFFICULTIES IN WESTERN MARKET.

EUROPE IS IRANS PREFERRED OPTION: TURKEY ROUTE.


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PAKISTAN VIEW

ASSURED SOURCE OF ENERGY- ALREADY HAS DEVP GAS

INFRASTRUCTURE

ECONOMIC GAINS - TRANSIT AND TRANSPORTATION FEE

OPPORTUNITY TO SIT ASTRIDE INDIAN ENERGY SUPPLY

IN FAVOUR

PLAYING TO PRECONCEIVED CHINESE AGENDA ?


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INDIAN VIEW

ASSURED SOURCE OF ENERGY

ECONOMIC GAIN CHEAPEST MODE OF TRANSPORTATION OF

ENERGY

OPAQUE DECISION MAKING IN TEHRAN

REVISION OF LNG PRICING

AYATULLAH VIEW- CONSERVE SOURCES

UNCERTAINITY

PAKISTAN SITS ASTRIDE YOUR ARTERY

STABILITY OF PAKISTAN


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IPI IN THE GREAT GAME


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THE CASPIAN REGION

ROMANIA

BULGARIA

GEORGIA

AZERBAIJAN

UZBEKISTAN

TURMENISTAN

IRANIRAQSYRIA


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THE OIL INTERESTS-CASPIAN


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INDICATIVE DPLY- AFGHANISTAN

FR

CAN

AU

SW

GE

NE

NO

TU


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THE OIL INTERESTS - CASPIAN


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THE WESTWARD PPL


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THE COMPETING PIPELINES


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GAS TO EUROPE


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SUMMARY


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IRANIAN CAPACITY TO SUPPLY IPI &

NABUCCO PIPELINES

IRAN DOES NOT HAVE THE GAS AVAILABLE TOMEET DEMAND FROM TWO OF ITS MAJOR

EXPORT INITIATIVES,, UNLESSBUYERSREDUCE THE VOLUMES DEMANDED.

IRAN

EUROPE IS ASKING FOR 100 MMSCM OF GAS A

DAY, WHILE INDIA AND PAKISTAN NEED 150MMSCU OF IRANIAN GAS,


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US VIEW

IRAN AXIS OF EVIL - UNACCEPTA

BLE REGIME.

IRAN MEDDLING IN MIDDLE EAST.

ANY LONG TERM PURCHASE OF OIL/GAS PROVIDES MUCH

NEEDED CAPITAL TO IRAN PRESENT SET UP TO SURVIVE

LONGER.

COMPANIES WITH MORE THAN $20 MILLION PER YR

INVESTMENT IN IRAN BARRED IN US .

TO OBVIATE IPI - US SUPPORTS TAPI PPL,IE, EXTRACT

CASPIAN RESOURCE WITHOUT GOING TO RUSSIA.

IRAN NOW ASKING FOR PAYMENTS IN EURO FOR OIL

EXPORTS.

DEAD AGAINST IPI


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RUSSIAN VIEW

IRAN SUPPORTS MULTI POLAR WORLD - REDUCED US INFLUENCE

IN THE REGION.

IRANIAN OIL/GAS TO EUROPE REDUCES RUSSIAN BARGAINING

POWER

RUSSIAN COMPANIES PREPARED TO INVEST- OPPORTUNITY FOR

LONG TERM INVESTMENT

ADDL CAPITAL WITH IRAN BRINGS LARGE ARMS ORDERS TO

RUSSIA.

RUSSIA OPPOSES NABUCCO AND TAPI PIPELINES WHICH

REDUCE HER CONTROL OF CASPIAN OIL AND EUROPEAN

MARKET


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CHINESE VIEW

IRAN'S SUPPORT FOR MULTI POLAR WORLD COINCIDES WITH HER

OWN PERCEPTIONS.

ANY NEW SOURCE OF ENERGY IS WELCOME TO FEED HER EVER

GROWING DEMAND.

HAS OFFERED TO PURCHASE INDIAN SHARE OF PIPELINE

CAPACITY.

MUCH SHORTER ROUTE TO HER WESTERN REGIONS.

OVERLAND ROUTE MAKES HER LESS DEPENDENT ON SEA LANES.


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ISSUES

SECURITY AND COST INCL TRANSIT FEE

SECURITY:

PAKISTANI ASSURANCE

IRAN GUARANTEES TO SUP EQUIVALENT AMOUNT OF ENERGY

THROUGH ALT ROUTE.

MULTI LATERAL FUNDING AND PROJECT EXECUTION


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PRICING QUESTION

IN 2005 IRANIAN PROPOSAL WAS AGREED UPON TO FIX PRICE AT

$4.93 PER MBTU (MILLION BRITISH THERMAL UNIT) AT OIL PRICE

$60 PERBARREL AND TO REMAIN THE BASIS OF PRICING OF GAS

FOR THE ENTIRE 25-YEARS OF CONTRACT.

IRAN SOUGHT MODIFICATION : ENVISAGING REVISION IN THE

FORMULA EVERY THREE YEARS, BASED ON INTERNATIONAL FUEL

PRICES AND ENERGY MIX.

PAKISTAN WANTS TO ADD A TRANSIT FEE (10% OF THE GAS PRICE)

AND A TRANSPORTATION TARIFF, MAKING THE DELIVERED PRICE

OF GAS AT THE INDIA-PAKISTAN BORDER $7 PER MBTU.


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TRANSPORT & TRANSIT FEETRANSPORT & TRANSIT FEE

PAKISTAN POSITION - TRANSIT FEE (10% OF THE GAS PRICE)

INDIAN POSITION: TRANSIT FEES OF 15 CENTS PER MBTU. NO

TRANSPORT AS THE PIPELINE IS A JOINT PROJECT AND ABOUT

HALF OF IT WILL BE COMMON TO BOTH COUNTRIES.

PAKISTAN HAS REVISED DEMAND IS $1.57 PER MBTU TO $0.70-$0.75

PER MBTU AS TRANSPORTATION TARIFF.

INDIA READY TO PAY NOT MORE THAN $0.55 PER MBTU ($220

MILLION ANNUALLY).

ON TRANSIT FEE, ISLAMABAD IS SEEKING $0.493 PER MBTU WHILE

NEW DELHI HAS OFFERED $0.20 PER MBTU.

DIFFERENCES ARE NARROWING


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CHALLENGES

SECURITY SIT IN PAKISTAN SINCE DETERIORATED -WAIT AND WATCH SIT

IN PAKISTAN.

MEAN WHILE DEVELOP LNG TERMINALS TO SHIP GAS FROM THE

SUPPLIERS.

DO NOT ALLOW THE PROJECT TO DIE DOWN. IT IS THE MOST

ECONOMICAL OPTION TO SECURE ENERGY-

INDIA UNDER EXPLORED AND NOT UNDER ENDOWED - AGGRESSIVE

EXPLORATION PLAN.

PREPARE GROUNDS TO DEAL WITH PIPELINE THROUGH POK -

CHALLENGE


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STUDY VALUE

ISSUES RARELY ARE WHAT THEY SEEM TO BE

FIGURE OUT THE MOTIVES - MEDIA

USE POWERFUL TOOLS MOSTLY FREE

OWNERSHIP - PASSION - COMPETENCE

?


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"To radically shift regime behavior we must think clearly and boldly

for if we have learned anything, it is that regimes do not want to bechanged.We must think beyond those who have gone before us and

discover technological changes that embolden us with ways to act in

which our forebears could not.

THE NUGGET


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THE NUGGET

"the more secretive or unjust an organisation is, the more leaks induce

fear and paranoia in its leadership and planning coterie. ... Since

unjust systems, by their nature induce opponents, and in many placesbarely have the upper hand, mass leaking leaves them exquisitely

vulnerable to those who seek to replace them with more open forms of

governance."


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INDIA PAK IRAN PIPELINE


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IPI in Indian Energy Matrix

The three leading questions:

How much gas India needs from Iran and howmuch Iran can offer and how reliable it

would be?

AtW

hat price?What is the time schedule of the project?


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GAS PROVEN RES : TRILLION CUBIC METER

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Middle East Europe and

Eurasia

South Asia

and Pacific

Africa North

America

South and

Central

America


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Res of gas

0

5

10

15

20

25

0

5

40

45

Middle East Europe andEurasia

South Asiaand Pacific

Africa NorthAmerica

South andCentral

America

RES OF GAS : SHARE PERCENTAGE


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GAS RES TO PROCUTION RATIO :YEARS

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

MiddleEast

Europeand

Eurasia

SouthAsia and

Pacific

Africa NorthAmerica

South andCentral

America


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OIL RES :PERCENTAGE

0

10

20

30

40

50

0

70


Africa South andCentral

America

NorthAmerica



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OIL RES : BILLION TONS EQUIVALENT

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Middle East Europe and

Eurasia

Africa South and

CentralAmerica

North

America

South Asia

and Pacific


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OIL RES : RES TO PRODUTION RATIO YEARS

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90


Africa South andCentral

America

NorthAmerica



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THE PROJECT


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THE PROJECT


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THE SHIFT TO GAS

Documents

India Pak Iran Pipeline 091000