INDIA MONTHLY RISK FORECAST - MitKat · recruitments in south Bastar in Chhattisgarh, and are attempting to recover the territory ceded to forces. If the security forces pause in

INDIA MONTHLY RISK FORECAST

MAY 2015

Intelligence inputs and local reports of the last few months confirm that the Maoists have made significant recruitments in south Bastar in Chhattisgarh, and are attempting to recover the territory ceded to forces. If the security forces pause in their operations and give a window of just a few months to the Maoists, the rebels could recover substantially in the year 2015.

Naxal Trends

The rapid expansion and penetration of Internet has created a virtual galaxy of information which presents a lucrative opportunity for cyber criminals. With Internet use and penetration set to increase massively in the coming years, cyber threats and cyber crimes will also increase at an exponential rate. Protecting your digital footprint is thus an on‐going process and should form a vital component of your online behavioural pattern.

Expert Speak: Digital Footprint Safety

1st May: Labour Day / International Worker Day 1st May: Maharashtra Day 2nd May: Hazarat Ali's Birth Anniversary (son‐in law of Prophet Muhammad) 4th May: Buddha Jayanti 7th May: Rabindranath Tagore Jayanti 18th May: Anniversary of Mecca Masijid bombing in Hyderabad 21st May: Death Anniversary of Rajiv Gandhi / Anti‐terrorism day

Event Calendar

Buddha Jayanti to be celebrated across South East Asia on May 4 amidst heightened security

Anniversary of Mecca Masjid bombings in Hyderabad on May 18

Protests against Land Acquisition Bill may intensify

Possibility of heat waves in northern India

May 2015

Su Mo Tu We Th Fr Sa

3

10

17

24

31

26

11

18

25

1

27

5

12

19

26

2

28

13

20

27

3

29

7

14

21

28

4

30

8

15

22

29

5

1

16

23

30

6

2

964

The Month That Was

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A major earthquake measuring 7.9 on the Richter scale hit Nepal, with the epicentre being 81 km north‐west of capital city, Kathmandu. The earthquake was the most powerful disaster to strike Nepal since the 1934 Bihar‐Nepal earthquake and resulted in massive destruction in the capital, where many buildings collapsed. Some buildings which were only partly damaged in the main earthquake, gave a false sense of security to affected people as nearly 55 aftershocks, the largest measuring 6.7 on the Richter scale, were recorded in the subsequent days after the earthquake. These aftershocks caused further building collapses and severely hampered rescue and relief operations which had to be suspended multiple times. Nearly 10,000 people are feared to be dead in the disaster.

Historical buildings like the Dharahara, a 60‐metre white minaret tower built in 1832 and the Kasthamandap, a three‐storey wooden temple in Durbar Square were levelled by the earthquake in Kathmandu valley. Huge avalanches were reported in the Himalayas including at the base camp of Mt. Everest where at least 20 climbers died. Landslides were reported in the mountainous regions of Nepal following the earthquake, resulting in entire villages getting buried in mud in Langtang region, west of Kathmandu.

Tremors and aftershocks from the earthquake were felt across north and north‐eastern regions of India in Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, Delhi, Assam and Uttarakhand. About 80 people were killed in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh in building collapses. Many buildings developed large cracks in West Bengal.

Seismology experts studying the Himalayan region advise better preparedness as seismic data of the past century points to high strain in the tectonic plates that form the earth's crust in the region. Major Indian cities including Delhi, Chandigarh, Mumbai, Kolkata, Lucknow and Patna fall under seismic zones 3 & 4 and are at risk. Nearly 20,000 people were killed and thousands of building destroyed in the 2001 Gujarat earthquake, with epicentre in Kutch district of the state.

As the adage goes, "Earthquakes don't kill people, buildings do". Maximum casualties when an earthquake hits a region are caused due to building collapses in high population density areas. It is imperative that all buildings especially in areas of high seismic activity be designed to be earthquake‐resistant. The Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS) details sufficient regulations that allow a building to be functionally safe in the event of an earthquake. Top management support must be provided to engineers and designers during the construction phase itself, so that all relevant earthquake‐design laws are complied with. For existing buildings, retrofitting, i.e., enhancing the strength of buildings to counter earthquake forces, is an option that must be looked at.

Earthquake in Nepal - northern and eastern states in India affected

Protests in Delhi over amendments in Land Acquisition Bill

Political parties across India have taken a stand opposing the latest amendments of the Land Acquisition Bill proposed by the BJP government. Sit‐in protests and rallies were witnessed throughout the month in Delhi as farmer unions from neighbouring states ‐ Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Haryana and Punjab ‐ all congregated at the national capital to air their reservations on the Bill. All major political parties apart from the BJP opposed the proposed amendments. With the added political flavour, farmers in thousands assembled at the Jantar Mantar for multiple demonstrations against the amendments throughout the month, resulting in traffic disruptions in the New Delhi area. Farmer unions allege that the latest amendments will take away the right of a farmer to his land, which could be forcibly seized by the government, for private interests without adequate compensation.

The government on the other hand, terms the latest amendments as a necessary step towards fast‐tracking infrastructure development, especially in rural areas. Farmers in India own small portions of land distributed over discontinuous areas, and with land mafia controlling major land dealings, it is difficult for the government and organisations with commercial interests, to acquire large areas of land for industrial and infrastructure development purposes. The proposed amendments will allow the government to acquire land for critical infrastructure projects in transport, national security, electricity and power generation sectors in a more efficient manner, with less delays.

Land, to set up large scale industries, is a primary resource that the ambitious 'Make in India' plan of the Modi‐government requires. The government needs to bring together all stakeholders and reach a consensus over the issue of land acquisition, one that is just to the farmers, as well as the needs and aspirations of a developing India.

The Month That Was


Security situation remains fragile in Kashmir valley

The last month saw security agencies maintaining a high alert posture across Jammu & Kashmir following multiple attacks by militants seeking to target security personnel and military installations. On April 2, two security personnel and a militant were killed in an encounter in Baramulla. This incident was only a precursor to the attacks on April 7, in which militants targeted security personnel in Baramulla, Shopian and Pulwama districts of Kashmir valley. Four J&K police personnel and a civilian were killed in these attacks. These attacks came amidst reports by intelligence agencies of possible fidayeen attacks in New Delhi by the Pakistan‐based militant outfit Jaish‐e‐Mohammed. The security apparatus was on high alert to prevent attacks such as the attempted ambush of Army complexes in Samba and Kathua districts in the state in late March.

The increased militant activity coincided with an increase in intensity of protests by separatist leaders in the state. Violent clashes broke out between police personnel and separatist protesters in Tral in Pulwama district of Kashmir over the death of a suspected militant neutralised by the police. Following this incident, a massive rally was called for by Syed Ali Shah Geelani, the leader of Hurriyat conference, in support of the protesters in Tral. This was the first rally called by the Hurriyat conference chairman after the summer agitation in 2010 in which over 100 civilians were killed. The friction between residents and security personnel in the Valley continued with protests in Budgam district where a youth was killed in police firing during another protest. Intelligence inputs also pointed to Pakistan's influence in the separatist protests, with reports suggesting that Pakistan's intelligence agency Inter‐Services Intelligence (ISI) was seeking to create conflict in Kashmir valley by stoking these protests and facilitating the infiltration of militants from across the border. With the arrival of summer season, mountain paths, frozen during the winters, open up and are used by militants to cross the border and enter into India.

The Month That Was


The past month saw a number of major industrial accidents across the country. Most of these accidents resulted in fires arising out of neglect of basic safety practices. At an Oil & Gas well in Surat, Gujarat, a stray spark during repairs resulted in a huge

explosion and the gas in the well catching fire. The entire gas in the well was allowed to burn for over 24 hours and was contained in the well, to restrict damage to nearby areas. Operations in the region were hit for over two days due to the incident.

A chemical factory unit in an industrial area in Hyderabad suffered damages worth several lakh rupees due to a fire which broke out and spread throughout the factory due to improper storage of inflammable chemicals.

A huge explosion was witnessed in a steel manufacturing unit in Jharkhand when a blast furnace developed undue pressure while being repaired, and exploded, resulting in the death of one employee.

Five employees were killed when they fell inside a tank filled with impure oil at an oil milling unit. A massive fire due to an electrical short circuit, broke out at a springs manufacturing factory in Bengaluru, causing several lakhs

rupees in damage to materials. Electrical gadgets, spring materials and furniture stored in the basement of the factory acted as fuel for the fire, resulting in a larger blaze.

Industrial accidents are common in India and take place on an alarmingly regular basis. A common theme witnessed in these accidents was the non‐adherence to safety procedures while carrying out repair and maintenance operations. In spite of specific directives issued by top management to follow all safety precautions and procedures, the reality on the ground can be very different due to poor implementation of safety practices. All organisations must aim to inculcate an environment of safety and quality, that empowers employees at all levels to understand the need of safe practices and to execute operations following these procedures. This will help guard against similar industrial accidents, most of which were preventable.

Multiple industrial accidents in India due to non-adherence to safety procedures

Buddha Jayanti, also known as Buddha Purnima, marks the birth of Lord Buddha. Celebrations include prayer meets, sermons and religious discourses, recitation of Buddhist scriptures, group meditation, processions and worship of the statue of Buddha. It is celebrated in several Buddhist communities across numerous countries. In India, the festivities are particularly grand in Bodh Gaya. The bomb blasts in Bodh Gaya by the Indian Mujahideen (IM) last year indicate that in addition to Hindu places of worship, the focus of Islamic fundamentalists has widened to other religions as well.

Terror modules may also look to target other temples and places of mass gatherings as this garners huge media attention for them. Also, the impact may be compounded due to the potential of triggering a stampede. Grand celebrations are conducted in all Buddhist pilgrimages in India, including the Buddha Jayanti Park in Delhi. Indian Railways runs a special Mahaparinirvan Express Buddhist Tourist Train that visits all Buddhist pilgrimage places in India. Tight security arrangements can be expected at all religious places, markets and other crowded places to avert any untoward incident. Commuters are advised to expect traffic curbs around major Buddhism dominated areas.

Buddha Jayanti to be celebrated across South East Asia on May 4 amidst heightened security

Anniversary of Mecca Masjid bombings in Hyderabad on May 18

On May 18, 2007, a powerful explosion occurred inside the famous Mecca Masjid, a mosque in the old city area in Hyderabad, capital of the Indian state of Andhra Pradesh located very close to Charminar. The blast was caused by a mobile‐triggered pipe bomb placed near the Wuzukhana, a spot where ablutions are performed. Two more live IEDs were found and defused by the police. Sixteen people were reported dead in the immediate aftermath, of whom five were killed in police firing as they tried to quell the mob.

In 2011, the National Intelligence Agency arrested, and subsequently charge sheeted, Hindu fundamentalists for bombing the Masjid. Muslim fundamentalists have been threatening to avenge the blasts and Indian Mujahideen (IM) purportedly conducted the twin bombings in the city for the same purpose.

While the current situation is largely peaceful, political activists playing their battles on communal grounds may trigger some security incidents. Also, anti‐national groups (terrorists, insurgents, separatists, fundamentalists and pro‐Pakistani militants) may attempt fresh terror attacks. In Hyderabad, it is advisable to stay alert of your surroundings; and travellers should carry ID to avoid any inconvenience during security checks which are also likely to be heightened.

Forecast for May


In recent years, many Indian cities, including New Delhi, Bengaluru and Hyderabad have witnessed unusually high temperatures and prolonged periods of excessively hot weather. This is particularly true in the northern and central region of India which experience continental‐style torrid weather in the months between April and July. The temperature often breaches the 45°C mark and paired with humidity, it may lead to some ailments, peculiar to summers, like heat‐exhaustion or even heatstroke.

Heat‐exhaustion occurs when the body is not properly hydrated. The most severe form of heat‐exhaustion is heatstroke, wherein the human body loses its capacity to regulate its internal temperature. Excessive environmental heat (hyperthermia) results in the body producing, or absorbing more heat than what is dissipated. This may result in a number of medical emergencies, which can turn life threatening in extreme conditions. The symptoms are usually mild/singular in common heat illnesses, and increase in intensity as the condition deteriorates. Some of these include high body temperature, sporadic perspiration and rapid heartbeat and faster breathing. This may impact the body's nervous system causing confusion, lack of coordination, fits (seizures), cramps, headache, vertigo/dizziness, anxiety, speech incoherence, hallucination and/or unconsciousness.

There are some easy preventive measures that those operating in hot climate are suggested to undertake; consume plenty of liquids, avoid caffeinated drinks, wear cotton clothes and avoid direct exposure to afternoon sun. In extreme cases, it is advised to seek immediate medical attention.

Possibility of heat waves in northern India

Forecast for May


The BJP‐proposed land acquisition bill has been witnessing massive street protests across India. Though the protests have been centred in and around Delhi, the political capital of India, April showed signs of similar agitations being organised in some other states as well. The Bill designed to expedite land acquisition process has been targeted by opposition parties as a political agenda, terming it to be anti‐farmer. Most political parties, apart from the ruling BJP, have come forward in support of the protests. Grassroots political leaders have found support in farmers' groups and NGOs and have aggressively demonstrated on streets. The agitations are picking up by the day, in numbers, frequency and volatility. Being a highly emotive issue, there have been a number of cases of suicides, by farmers who feel that they are destined to be doomed once the controversial bill is passed in Parliament. Some farmer unions had recently blocked railway tracks in Punjab, conducted rallies in Hyderabad and organised sit‐ins in Rajasthan and Haryana.

Meanwhile, the BJP has been strong in its stance of getting the Bill approved and implemented at the earliest. The decision looks forward‐looking, however, there are several underlying issues that may need to be resolved. A lobby of land mafias may well be expected to be queuing up to further their agenda as the new bill aims to reduce the role of middlemen in land acquisition by the government. The land mafia would like to preserve the status quo and can be expected to provide behind‐the‐scenes support to these protests against the Land Acquisition Bill. This may turn the protests from a largely peaceful movement into violent anti‐establishment street protests. It is advised to closely monitor the developing situation in Delhi as political parties across India can be expected to follow the direction that the protests take in Delhi.

Protests against Land Acquisition Bill may intensify

Afghanistan

Taliban starts the spring offensive in the country, for the first time without NATO resistanceThe Taliban announced the start of this year's spring offensive with multiple strikes across the country on April 25. Insurgents shot rockets at a U.S. base outside Kabul and targeted Afghan government buildings in a provincial capital. This will be the first time since 2001, that the Afghan Security Forces will be fighting against the Talibans, without any external support.

This month has seen a surge in Taliban initiated violence, with an increase in both frequency and intensity of attacks. The insurgents have targeted army bases, government installations, and security‐heavy places without hesitation. Understandably, the new‐found courage comes from the drawdown of the International Security Assistance Forces (ISAF) from Afghanistan. But NATO still maintains a small training presence in the country, which should suffice for deterrence. This does not seem to be happening.

The Afghan Security Forces only have a short window of opportunity to take stock of their defensive and offensive capabilities. Although both the US and Afghanistan have individual vested interests in allowing the status quo to continue, on the larger scale, the US will have to pull out of Afghanistan to give credence to the democratic elections held last year.

Pakistan

Operation Zarb‐e‐Azb intensified, as security forces make sizeable gainsPakistan's military and security forces have made impressive strides in closing on the objective of Operation Zarb‐e‐Azb recently. Almost 40 air‐operations and precision strikes were carried out in the month of April, mostly concentrating on the Western frontier provinces of Baluchistan, FATA and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. At least 200 suspected militants have been killed, and more than 500 arrested over the past few months, since the Pakistani Army has intensified counterinsurgency operations in the region.

The semi‐autonomous tribal areas on the Afghan border have for years been a hideout for Islamist militants of all stripes, including Al Qaeda and the Pakistani Taliban as well as foreign fighters such as Uzbeks and Uighurs.

Since the region is demarcated out of bounds for non‐government agencies, the claims made by the army on the number of militants killed has not been independently verified.

However, the threat of domestic terrorism will not subside unless the government at the center is more involved in the development of the region, especially the congruent land border with Afghanistan. The disinterest of the government is what led to the growth of terrorism in the region in the first place. Pakistan hangs its 100th convict, since lifting the moratorium on death penalty Pakistan recently carried out its 100th execution since lifting a moratorium on the death penalty last December, in what rights group Amnesty International described as a 'shameful milestone'. Hangings resumed after the Tehreek‐i‐Taliban's brutal attack on Peshawar's Army Public School in December 2014, in which 154 people were killed most of them children.

Pakistan already has a poor reputation for having a rigid judicial system, marred by police torture, poor legal representation for victims and unfair trials. In the past four months, Islamabad has displayed complete disregard for human life. International observers believe that this mechanism is potentially disastrous for the country's legal system, and can be exploited by the military for advancing its own objectives.

Neighbourhood Scan


City corporation polls a debacle, BNP‐opposition candidates withdraw halfwayThe city corporation elections on April 28 were marked by widespread voting irregularities, rigging, and high‐handiness by ruling party goons. Ballot‐stuffing, media‐censorship, and controlled voting were abound, forcing the BNP and a few opposition candidates to call for boycotting the polls, midway through the elections. Several members of the BCL were witnessed and recorded occupying polling booths and casting votes at will, with law enforcement present in the vicinity and not interfering.

Citizens of Dhaka and Chittagong were agitated and disappointed, after being given false promises for exercising their voting rights. Quite a few voters turned up at their respective centres, only to find their votes already cast, while some were simply not allowed to enter the polling booths. A few voters also complained of being threatened by BCL activists to vote for the AL‐candidates. Only sporadic, few incidents of violence were recorded during the polls, mostly involving AL‐men and rebel activists, vying for the same posts. No BNP members were observed engaging in any violent activity. Since the start of the month, the BNP, along with the opposition alliance, had kept its supporters in check, ensuring no violent incidents were instigated by its members. Even when campaigning for city council candidates that it supported, the BNP chief was constantly attacked by rebel groups affiliated with the ruling party. Even then Khaleda Zia retained the non‐retaliatiory stance for the entire party. However, this latest antic of the ruling Awami League maybe the last test of Zia's patience. With the general public also seething over the farce election, the BNP may finally have an ally to wage yet another battle with Sheikh Hasina.

In this month, since the opposition alliance's national blockade lost its steam, members of the BNP have largely avoided participating in public demonstrations and protests. Most sporadic incidents have been the result of sectional clashes, and conflicts between different outfits of the BCL, vying for supremacy in their areas of influence. Prior to the city corporation polls, cadres of BCL attacked the motorcade of Khalida Zia, during her electioneering campaigns. No casualties were reported.

Bangladesh

Neighbourhood Scan


Deteriorating human rights condition can potentially cost Maldives its livelihoodWorried by the deteriorating condition of human rights in the Maldives, the European Union has decided to vote on a travel advisory for the island nation. Europeans make up nearly half of the tourist arrivals in the Maldives, and a travel advisory may have a devastating impact on the country's economy as it depends largely on revenue from tourism. The seven parliamentary groups in the EU parliament have each submitted a motion for a resolution, all of which noted a lurch towards authoritarianism in the Maldives. In addition to the imprisonment of opposition politicians, concern is also raised over growing radicalization, a crackdown on the freedom of speech, press and assembly, deteriorating conditions for migrant workers, slow judicial reform and the reinstatement of the death penalty.

Earlier, Amnesty International urged the global community to intervene in the island nation to protect the human rights of its citizens. The global human rights body conducted a five‐day study‐mission in the Maldives, and reported that the authorities there were 'muzzling' peaceful protesters, 'silencing' critical media and civil society and 'abusing' judicial system to imprison opposition politicians.

An organization called Ethical Maldives Alliance recently listed the top 100 resorts of the country, and segregated each into risk categories, based on their connection with human rights violators in the country. The evaluation measures include owners' support for governments that perpetuate corruption, intimidation and oppression, measures relevant to the environment and social responsibility. The organization urges all tourists to go through the listing to avoid visiting any resort, which may be in cahoots with the oppressive government.

Maldives

Neighbourhood Scan


President Sirisena's administration passes historic 19th amendment to constitution, curbing presidential powersConstitutional amendments to curb the government's executive powers were passed in Sri Lanka's parliament on April 30, after four months of political discussions. The changes, which will limit presidential terms and increase the independence of key government departments, passed with a two‐thirds majority through the deeply divided Parliament. The amendments reinstate a two‐term limit for presidents–removed under former President Rajapaksa's rule–and provisions for right to information in the constitution.

Reducing presidential powers was one of President Sirisena's key election promises and the passing of the amendment was seen as a litmus test for his four‐month old administration. The new president had pledged to reduce presidential powers within 100 days and promised to call a parliamentary election, but he faced a struggle to unite his party with opposition politicians to obtain the requisite number of votes to pass the amendments. The government's military‐heavy stance in the country works against resolving the ethnic Tamil problemA surprising observation is that none of President Sirisena's 100‐day promise package relates to the problem of Sri Lankan Tamils. Of the army's 19 divisions, 16 are garrisoned in northern and eastern parts of the country, an estimated 80,000 troops. The military took thousands of acres of land (separate from the land acquired in the early 1990s, some of which was recently returned) to build these camps. Tamils fear that this entirely Sinhalese force will become a permanent part of the north's demography, altering its ethnic composition to their disadvantage. Therefore, it will be prudent for the new administration to reconsider its mobilization trends for the military, to signal ro the Tamils that their concerns are known and being rectified.

Sri Lanka

Myanmar

Tatmadaw intensifies conflict against the Arakan Army, even as Kokang rebels hold their ground up northGovernment forces have been engaged in an increasingly intensifying conflict with the Arakan Army, on the Myanmar‐Bangladesh border since the beginning of the month. Although no heavy casualties have so far been reported, unrest in the region has significantly increased in these past days. The obscure ethnic insurgent group has opened up a new front in Myanmar's western Rakhine state, aiming to pressure the government to include it among rebel groups engaged in peace talks. The ethnic minority insurgents have clashed with the military several times over the past few weeks, in Rakhine state's first such battles in more than a decade.

The Arakan Army, along with the Ta'ang National Liberation Army are known supporters of the Kokang rebels in the north. Although considered a part of the alliance by the Nationwide Ceasefire Coordination Team (NCCT), both the Kokang rebels and the Arakan army are not recognised as members by the government. With no clarity on the status of the draft ceasefire agreement, and the recent fresh bout of conflict against the rebels, a peaceful outcome appears bleak at the moment.

The Kokang rebels too have cemented their positions in the north, with the Tatmadaw taking heavy casualties with no effect on rebel positions. Hundreds of soldiers and ethnic Kokang rebels have died since conflict erupted in the remote region of Shan state on February 9, while thousands of people have fled across the frontier into China. The NCCT has already sent a directive to President Sein, asking for an immediate ceasefire against the warring ethnic groups. The general consensus is that the other 16 groups might refuse to ratify the peace agreement, unless the Kokang rebels and the Arakan army are also brought into its ambit.

Spotlight - Nepal


7.9 magnitude earthquake strikes Nepal, North IndiaAn earthquake measuring 7.9 with a depth of 15km struck Nepal at around 12 noon, on April 25. The epicentre was 35km east of Lamjung, almost 81km away from Kathmandu. Tremors and aftershocks were felt from the Delhi NCR region to as far as the North‐Eastern States of India. Widespread damage ensued with complete to partial destruction of Kathmandu and the nearby areas.

The latest figures for damage now stand at more than 5,500 dead, 12,000 injured, and 45,000 displaced. A further 1.4 million people require food assistance. Focus of the search and rescue operations has now shifted towards the many districts and countless villages lying between the epicentre and Kathmandu, since the remote areas could not be accessed earlier, due to damaged and rugged terrain, marred by landslides. Preliminary reports suggest total destruction of small villages, with no scope for any recovery of personnel. The death toll is expected to go up by another 5,000 by the time the epicentre is reached. The Gorkha district in the Gandaki zone and nearby areas of Sindhupalchok, Dhading, Rasuwa and Bhaktapur are yet to be assessed for damage.

The Kathmandu airport is bottlenecked, will all the relief and aid teams in constant circulation, thus making it difficult to make time‐bound trips, such as medical evacuations. The roadways system is heavily disrupted, making it difficult to travel towards the epicentre to assist the people stuck in far‐flung areas. And finally, in all the confusion, a clear risk assessment of the damage area has not been successful, since there is no clarity on what to prioritise. Aid and relief dispatch is poorly coordinated and political diplomacy, due to the multi‐faceted nature of the relief groups, is hindering effective distribution of resources. Looming monsoon could potentially worsen situationAt least 5,489 people are confirmed dead as of April 30, with another 11,940 injured. The toll is expected to rise. 19 deaths occurred on Mt Everest, where the tremors set off deadly avalanches. India and China have reported totals of 72 and 25 deaths from the earthquake, respectively. The frequent downpours in Nepal have made it harder for emergency workers to help the injured. The rain has also increased the risk of landslides and mudslides across rugged terrain already destabilized by the earthquake's tremors. A number of landslides after the earthquake have severely hampered relief operations. Angry and shaken public clashes with riot police over aid, servicesSurvivors of the earthquake clashed with the riot police in Kathmandu on April 30. With supplies of food and water running low and aftershocks straining nerves in the ruined capital, thousands of people gathered outside the main bus station after the government promised to lay on special services to far‐flung rural areas. But when the buses failed to materialise, anger surged and scuffles broke out between the crowds and riot police who were sent to try to contain the situation near parliament. A few minor injuries were reported.

The UN has reportedly appealed for $415 million for Nepal, noting that around 70,000 houses had been destroyed and another 5,30,000 damaged. One estimate has put the cost of reconstruction at $5 billion.

Digital Footprint Safety

Expert Speak


Around 40% of the world population has an Internet connection today. In 1995, it was less than 1%. Internet can today be accessed via a computer, mobile telephone, PDA, games machine, digital TV, etc. The rapid expansion and penetration of Internet has created a virtual galaxy of information, accessible to almost anyone from anywhere in the world. The advantages of this pool of information are inexhaustible, however it has also created a lucrative opportunity for cyber criminals. Meant to be a platform for information sharing, the Internet permanently stores any and every information fed into it, intentionally or unintentionally, in a cloud of data. All this information becomes a part of the public domain, with the original creator of the content often losing control over which part of the world the information reaches, who uses it, and how it is used. One share on Facebook, a tweet on Twitter, or a post on a blog, is enough for a piece of information to reach millions of Internet users around the world. Thus, it assumes paramount importance that users of digital services take some precautions to stay safe. Internet creates an identity trail of every user, using the information shared by them and navigation patterns. Many bits of seemingly unconnected information can be pieced together to create a digital profile of each person. This is increasingly being used by cyber criminals to perpetrate financial crimes, identity thefts or creating some intelligence that could be sold in the market. What is digital footprint:Digital footprint refers to the data that we leave behind when we use digital services like websites, social media platforms, smart phone applications and other Internet services which we interact with. Passive footprint: Many websites collect user data like browsing history, IP addresses, geographical location and login information in the form of "cookies". Cookies help in creating a string of usage data or digital footprint that pertains to a specific user. The data is automatically recorded without the user giving out information. Most users do not realise this, but by default, web browsers contain thousands of cookies, created and placed by every website visited by the user. These must be deleted from time to time. Active footprint: This is created through the personal data released deliberately by a user. This data often contains specific information pertaining to a person's identity and habits. For example, posting a status update on a social media platform can allow other users to infer your current geographical location, the activity you are involved in and with whom. The digital trail left behind on social media platforms includes not only posts, but also "likes" and "shares" performed by a user. Threats: Cyber fraud ‐ The information is frequently being utilised to commit cyber frauds. The space is gaining popularity amongst criminals as they can commit these crimes from a remote location and with the rising number of Internet users and expansion of financial services through apps and websites, the potential victims and amount of money is also multiplying. Cyber stalking ‐ another major crime that is frequently being reported, wherein the attacker harasses a victim using electronic communication, such as e‐mail or instant messaging (IM), or messages posted to a Web site or a discussion

-Shreekant Road

Expert Speak


group. Cyber stalkers may also try to target their potential victims in the real world. Identity theft ‐ Divulgence of too much information can also make users vulnerable to identity theft. Unsolicited marketing ‐ While not considered dangerous, digital footprints also aid marketers in targeted marketing, which could be quite a nuisance, if unsolicited. Reputational risk ‐ Even information that is not critical may affect your reputation on the Internet, which has repercussions in the real world.

Safety tips: Think before you post; one must exercise restraint in posting sensitive information on the web. Regularly review privacy settings on all online accounts as privacy policies of social websites are updated frequently. Do not disclose your personal address, phone number, passwords, bank card numbers etc. even in private messages. Avoid using social networking sites at work. Many hackers target their victims and computer systems through social media sites. Use caution when you receive links in messages on your social networking site. Be wary of unknown persons sending friend requests on social networks. Be careful about the information you reveal about your workplace or company on your social networking site.

Most of India as yet remains untouched by the Internet. With Internet use and penetration supposed to increase massively in the coming years, cyber threats and cyber crimes will also increase at an exponential rate. Protecting your digital footprint is thus an on going process and should form a vital component of your online behavioural pattern. Organisations must create a culture of practicing highest levels of information security while using the Internet, with special sessions and campaigns to make their employees aware of the risks associated with their digital footprint.

Shreekant Road, Analyst, MitKat Advisory Services: He is part of MitKat's Geo‐Political Risk Management Team, based out of Bengaluru.

“Everything you do now ends up in your permanent record… always act as if you’re on candid camera, because you are!”~ Seth Godin, author and marketing guru

Naxal Tracker - April

2015


April events and incidents

Naxals or Maoists are militant far‐left radical Communist groups operating in India. Inspired by the doctrines of Mao Zedong, they work to overthrow the government and upper classes by violence. They are considered as a terrorist organization under the Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act of India (1967).

Naxalites activities have spread to about 82 districts across 10 states, though some are very moderately affected. Maoist incidents have accounted for almost 60 per cent of terrorism‐related violence in India over the last decade. These include intimidation, killings of innocent civilians, reprisal killings, abductions and kidnappings, IED blasts and the destruction of government and private property. In many of the areas of their influence, the Maoists have been collecting taxes and dispensing instant and brutal justice through kangaroo courts.

April 1st – Chhattisgarh: Maoists abducted five employees of Jayaswal's Neco Company and few locals including drivers and machine operators and later released them April 1st – Bihar: Maoists abducted and killed a landless farmer of Chalidhor village, suspecting him to be a 'police informer', in Aurangabad district of Bihar April 1st – Chhattisgarh: CPI‐Maoist cadres set ablaze ten vehicles of a mining company ‐ eight tractors, a truck and a JCB machine ‐ near Iragaon in Kondagaon district April 2nd – Chhattisgarh: Two security personnel were injured as CPI‐Maoist cadres opened fire on a Police team following a blast in Kanker district April 3rd – Jharkhand: A CPI‐Maoist 'zonal commander' was lynched by villagers near Rongo Village in West Singhbhum district April 3rd – Jharkhand: JSJMM, a breakaway faction of the CPI‐Maoist, set ablaze two coal‐loaded trucks and damaged another at a railway siding near Tori station in Latehar district April 3rd – Chhattisgarh: A team of CRPF detected and defused seven bombs, suspected to be planted by Maoists in Bijapur district April 3rd – Chhattisgarh: A joint team of CRPF and district Police arrested four Maoists in Karrepara village in Bijapur district. Materials used in making pressure bombs were seized from their possession April 3rd – Bihar: Security personnel seized arms and bomb making materials including 50 kg ammonium nitrate and 2,350 detonators and defused an IED planted by Maoists in Rohtas district April 4th – Telangana: A CPI‐Maoist 'commander' surrendered in Kothagudem in Khammam district April 5th – Chhattisgarh: A CPI‐Maoist cadre was killed during an exchange of fire with security personnel in the jungles of Sargipal in Bastar district April 5th – Andhra Pradesh: Seven rebels of the CPI‐Maoist were arrested by the Police in Visakhapatnam district April 6th – Chhattisgarh: Maoists dug up the road and blocked traffic for several hours at various places between Burkapal and

MitKat Recommendations: Organisations operating in Maoist infested areas must carry out active liaison for intelligence inputs and harden their security adequately to safeguard their people, assets and operations. Professional advice should be sought from security consultants with a successful track record of operating in dangerous and challenging territories.

Naxal Tracker - April

2015


Chintalnar near Dornapal and Jagargunda in Sukma April 7th – Chhattisgarh: A group of heavily armed cadres of the CPI‐Maoist abducted a Police constable between near Bijapur district April 10th – Jharkhand: An area commander of PLFI, a breakaway faction of CPI Maoist, killed in an encounter with security forces in Khunti district April 10th – Odisha: CPI‐Maoist threatened to kill BJD MLA from Lanjigarh and chairman and vice‐chairman of local Panchayat Samiti April 10th – Jharkhand: Two CPI Maoist cadres were arrested by security personnel during a search operation in Khunti district April 10th – Chhattisgarh: Maoist rebels torched an under construction police station in Rajnandgaon district. April 11th – Chhattisgarh: Seven members of a special task force, including its Commandant, were killed and 10 others injured in Sukma district April 12th – Chhattisgarh: Cadres of CPI‐Maoist attacked a team of security personnel killing one in Kanker district April 12th – Chhattisgarh: Maoists set ablaze 17 vehicles engaged in mining work in Kanker district April 12th – Chhattisgarh: Security personnel recovered a 10 kg IED, suspected to be planted by the Maoists, from Kutrunala near Cholnar area in Dantewada district April 13th – Chhattisgarh: The CPI‐Maoist cadres blew up an Anti‐Landmine Vehicle of the Chhattisgarh Police, killing five personnel in Dantewada district April 14th – Bihar: Police unearthed 60 landmines connected in series in Munger district April 15th – Jharkhand: Exchange of fire took place between Police and CPI‐Maoist cadres in Hazaribagh district. April 15th – Bihar: Sophisticated arms and ammunition were seized and four cadres of the CPI‐Maoist arrested during raids in Nawada and Jamui districts April 15th – Jharkhand: Police and Maoist rebels exchanged gunfire for several hours in the forests of Amjora in Hazaribagh district April 25th – Bihar & Jharkhand: Maoists call for a 24‐hour bandh in both the states. April 25th – Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh & Odisha: Maoists call for bandh in the states till April 30.

Naxal trendsLast month saw the CPI‐M rebels mount serious counter operations to expand the territory under their control. The main focus of these expansion operations were the districts of Kanker, Sukma and Bastar in Chhattisgarh. Security personnel deployed in the region were the main targets of these operations. According to intelligence inputs, Maoist had launched a Tactical Counter Offensive Campaign (TCOC) in late March in areas of Sukma and Bastar districts of Chhattisgarh. On April 12, seven security personnel of an elite anti‐Naxal force were killed in an ambush by Maoists in Sukma. Over 300 rebels took part in this ambush and sophisticated weapons and equipment was looted from the security personnel by Maoists during this attack. On April 13, Maoists targeted an armoured personnel carrier of the security forces which was on a patrol in the area to provide security to road construction activity in the region. In spite of the extra security being provided to operations of commercial entities in the region by security forces, mining operations were also targeted as rebels abducted several employees of a mining company on April 1, to warn them against continuing with mining in the area. In another incident on April 12, rebels torched 17 vehicles involved in mining operations in Kanker district. Intelligence inputs and local reports of the last few months confirm that the Maoists have made significant recruitments in south Bastar in Chhattisgarh, and are attempting to recover the territory ceded to forces. If the security forces pause in their operations and give a window of just a few months to the Maoists, the rebels could recover substantially in the year 2015, which also marks the 10th summer after Salwa Judum.

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INDIA MONTHLY RISK FORECAST - MitKat · recruitments in south Bastar in Chhattisgarh, and are attempting to recover the territory ceded to forces. If the security forces pause in