INDIA MONTHLY RISK FORECAST - MitKat Advisory of Democracy in general elections ŸSri Lanka: The government has undertaken efforts for reconciliation with the country's Tamil minorities

ŸSpotlight - Myanmar: Country in transition to a more transparent democracy with victory of National League of Democracy in general elections

ŸSri Lanka: The government has undertaken efforts for reconciliation with the country's Tamil minorities

INDIA MONTHLY RISK FORECAST

DECEMBER 2015

Jammu & Kashmir – Infiltration attempts by militant groups along international border expected to increase before the onset of winter in the state

December 6th – Increased security likely, ahead of the 23rd anniversary of Babri Masjid demolition

North India - Smog-like conditions may result in poor visibility; possible disruption to air, rail and road traffic movement

ŸFollowing terror attacks in Paris and Mali, security stepped up across India

The Month That Was

Forecast For December

ŸPakistan: Minority community targeted in the country, face social and legal discrimination

India’s Neighbourhood

Naxal Trends: Movement towards Andhra Pradesh and Telangana to re-establish bases there

Expert Speak: South Asian Security Dynamics

ŸHeavy rainfall in Chennai exposes the lack of preparedness and infrastructure failure in the city

ŸActivities of Sikh radical groups following the Sarbat Khalsa raises concerns over stability in Punjab

ŸAfghanistan: Major public protests in Kabul against the killing of Shia minorities by Islamic State sympathisers

ŸBangladesh: Rapid spread of extremist groups gives rise to fears of security and spread of radicalization in the country

ŸMaldives: Political unrest continues; government declares emergency and subsequently withdraws it

December 2015

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Event Calendar

ŸLack of a safety culture in Delhi and Mumbai exposed, as many fire related incidents reported

ŸNepal: Essential commodities in short supply as protests in Terai region continue

Political tensions between India and Nepal will continue to remain high in December

rd w December 3 th& 4 : Taxi Associations in

Kolkata on strike on 3rd and 4th

thw December 4 : Shiromani Akali Dal's rally in

Jalandhar

thw December 13 : Anniversary of Parliament

attacks

thw December 24 : Id-e-Milad

thw December 25 : Christmas Day

stw December 31 : New Year's Eve

thw December - 8 : nd 2 Maoists to celebrate

the anniversary of People's Liberation Guerrilla Army from 2nd – 8th

thw December 6 : Anniversary of Babri Masjid

demolition

3

4 5

6 87

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The Month That Was

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The worst rainfall in Chennai for nearly a century has put the city's civic infrastructure through the harshest of tests. Chennai has seen nearly four floods in the last 30 years, yet the city found itself ill-prepared for the recent rains that started early November. As many as 169 lives were lost and more than 400,000 people had taken shelter in relief camps. In the coastal areas, standing crops were ruined.While there are no official estimates, financial analysts believe industrial production worth over Rs 1,000 crore has been lost.

While daily life has almost come to a halt, the tech companies have made efforts to continue serving their clients and ensure business continuity. Chennai is the tech hub of the country and employs approximately 15% of India's 3 million technology workforce. These employees handle major national and international clients, and these rains posed a serious challenge fortheir working. However, it has not been easy. Companies have faced massive disruptions in their operations. Over the past week, most tech companies have either declared holidays or given employees the option to work from home. Some employees have stayed back in the office so as to continue so that the work doesn't stop.

The rains compelled some tech companies to implement contingency plans in order to ensure safety of their employees as well as meet their clients' requirements. ŸA US based firm moved its key employees from Chennai to Bengaluru so that it could continue to provide 24x7 services and guarantee

business continuity.ŸSome Indian tech firms requested some its employees to work from home to ensure business continuity; only the ones working on

critical projects were asked to come to office.ŸAnother US-based tech company has moved numerous employees to other centers in Chennai or to centers in other cities. Some

employees who have volunteered to work from the office itself. For those employees, the company has stocked up food and mattresses, and even constructed a small shower area. The company has even taken measures to accommodate families of employees and staff members.

ŸAnother tech giant provided transport services to employees working on 24-hour support projects. It has also arranged for guesthouse, or hotel accommodation.

The cab services company, Ola launched a ferry rescue service in the waterlogged and submerged areas of Chennai. This effort was in tandem with the Fire and Rescue Department of Tamil Nadu and was free of cost. Launched for an initial period of three days, the service also carried food and drinking water supplies to specific areas short of basic supplies.

Although the rains were unprecedented in their intensity, part of the blame for the floods must also be shared with the city's administrators as Chennai's infrastructure has failed to keep pace with its growth. The rains exposed the city's lack of preparedness for natural disasters. Haphazard real estate development paved the way for the disaster that unfolded in the city.Water bodies, including wetlands, have been encroached upon or reclaimed to build high-rises, which has affected the flow of rainwater. The city has only 855 km of storm drains against 2,847 km of urban roads. Failure to de-silt those drains was another reason for the floods.

Environmentalists believe that extreme weather events in recent years match the predicted effects of global warming, though more research into individual episodes must be done. The Chennai floods should come as a severe warning to authorities since there could be many more such episodes in the near future across the country. And the only way to minimise the deleterious impacts of such wayward climate changes would be to make Indian cities climate resilient.

Heavy rainfall in Chennai exposes the lack of preparedness and infrastructure failure in the city

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The Month That Was


Activities of Sikh radical groups following the Sarbat Khalsa raises concerns over stability in Punjab

In recent months, Punjab has witnessed a very large number of protests, related to either government's policies or communal tensions. In the recent past, students, unemployed youth, teachers and farmers have held dharnas and disrupted functions of leaders of Shiromani Akali Dal (Badal) (SAD(B))—which, in a coalition with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), is the ruling party of the state. Protests in response to the desecration of a copy of the Guru Granth Sahib (holy book of the Sikhs) paralysed the state for more than 10 days in October 2015.

Then on November 10th, certain radical Sikh groups, organised the Sarbat Khalsa (assembly of Sikhs) near Amritsar; the group was denied permission to hold the gathering inside the Golden Temple Complex.

ŸThe congregation was attended by a large number of people, and passed 13 resolutions challenging the authority of the Akal Takht (Sikhs' seat of power in Amritsar) and Shiromani Gurudwara Prabhandak Committee (SGPC) leadership.

ŸDuring the congregation, among the key announcements was that of the sacking of the jathedars (head priest) at the three Takhts (seat of power) in Punjab for “failing to uphold the traditions” of the Takhts.

ŸAt the SarbatKhalsa, it was also announced that Jagtar Singh Hawara, the jailed assassin of former Punjab Chief Minister Beant Singh, will be appointed as Jathedar of the Akal Takht. The appointment was rejected by both SGPC and the state's ruling government.

ŸThe organisers of the gathering also revived the demand for a separate Sikh state. The resolution that was passed was carefully worded as it skipped the word 'Khalistan' but spoke of the need to struggle for 'Sikh Raj'.

ŸPost the congregate on, political tensions between certain radical Sikh groups and the state government remained high. However, the presence of huge number of people there is considered more as an expression of "anger" against the Badal government and not to support Khalistan.

However, the November 10th Sarbat Khalsa was the first to take place in the state after the one in 1986; that one held at the height of Sikh militancy. The latest congregation was held at a time when communal tensions have been high in Punjab following the numerous recent incidents of sacrilege of the holy book of the Sikhs. The resurgence of the activities of radical Sikh groups and the sacrilege incidents have triggering fears of a revival of the separatist Khalistan movement. The Union Home Ministry is keeping a close watch on the developments in the state for any hints of revival of Sikh separatist movement.

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The Month That Was


Following the terror attacks in Paris and Mali, India was put on high security alert. Police and state governments were instructed to increase security including at all foreign embassies and consulates. Security forces were also asked to keep a tight vigil at airports, railway stations, bus terminus, markets and religious places. The step was taken as a precautionary measure as terrorists of banned Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and Indian Mujahideen have been conspiring to target foreign missions in India. The Home Ministry issued an advisory stating that inputs about Islamic State (IS) activities should be immediately reviewed to identify plans, target areas vulnerable to attack by IS and appropriate action taken to neutralise potential threat if any. Security has been increased at the diplomatic enclave in Delhi, especially outside the Embassy of France in Chanakyapuri, at all airports, railway stations and bus terminals in Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata, Bengaluru and Chennai.

Although it is understood that India does not face an imminent threat from the Islamic State (IS), following the attacks in Paris, security measures have been more stringent across the major cities. The intelligence agencies are keeping tabs on at least 55 Indians for being sympathisers of the IS. Despite India's large Muslim population, IS has only been able to draw a handful of recruits from the country, although there could be more youth getting radicalised. Last week, two youths from Chennai have been deported from Turkey after they tried to enter Syria, allegedly to join IS. Indian security establishment suggests that around 20-odd Indians are currently fighting for Islamic State in Iraq-Syria.

Though IS has not been able to establish any significant presence in India, its success in radicalising some youth, attracting certain section of the local population/Indian diaspora or the possibility of piggybacking on terrorist groups operating in India have opened up the possibility of ISIS sponsored action on Indian territory.

Following terror attacks in Paris and Mali, security stepped up across India

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The Month That Was


Fire emergencies in Delhi on Diwali breached a 10-year high, with nearly 400 calls made to the fire services. While no casualties were reported due to the fires, two persons including a five-year-old boy were killed when firecrackers went off in stainless steel glasses and they were hit by the shards. At least 290 fire related calls were received at the Delhi Fire Service's (DFS) control room for two days during Diwali. According to DFS, the reduced casualties this year was a result of planned strategies involved locating vulnerable spots and deploying adequate fire tenders, ensuring full attendance by cancelling all leaves and equipping the control room to deal with emergencies despite the severe staff crunch in the department.At least six major fire-related accidents were reported in Mumbai in November.

ŸA fire was reported at a commercial establishment in Kandivali area of North Mumbai (November 17th).ŸOn November 20th, a major fire was reported at a residential cum commercial building in Dadar (West) area of Central Mumbai. ŸA fire occurred at company's office on Ganpatrao Kadam Marg in Lower Parel, Central Mumbai (November 20th). ŸIn the Wadala area of the city, a fire was reported at the Central Institute for Research on Cotton Technology (November 20th).ŸThe commercial establishment of the Gaiety-Galaxy-Gemini Cinema premises in Bandra (West), a western suburb of Mumbai

reported a major fire accident on November 18th.ŸAnother fire incident was reported in the industrial area of Mankoli in Bhiwandi (an outer suburb of Mumbai); the fire broke out close

to a fuel station.

Although no casualties were reported in any of these incidents, fire safety remains a concern in the densely populated city. In most cases, in addition to negligence, fire safety regulations were violated. The civic body of Mumbai, Brihan Mumbai Corporation (BMC), has been conducting audits/raids in commercial establishments such as restaurants, hotels etc. to enforce strict regulation on fire safety. However, some establishments still try to avoid these measures as a cost saving strategy.

India continues to have a dismal record on fire and structural safety. It is important for all organisations to carry out internal/external assessments of fire and structural safety. Fire safety drills must be conducted regularly, to keep employees abreast of safety procedures to follow in case of an emergency. Management support to HSSE initiatives, including fire, road safety and emergency response planning, is essential. Before approving/leasing any building, the projects team must ensure that the building is compliant to the latest safety standards.

Lack of a safety culture in Delhi and Mumbai exposed, as many fire related incidents reported

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Forecast for December


The Babri Masjid, a mosque in Ayodhya, in Faizabad district of Uttar Pradesh, was attacked and demolished during a political rally by Hindu nationalist groups, on December 6th 1992. Following the demolition of the mosque, communal riots broke out across India, in which more than 2,000 people were killed. Till date, there continues a debate on the history on the land on which the mosque was built. The site has been traditionally regarded by Hindus to be the birth place of one of the major Hindu deity, Rama and it's believed that there existed a temple at the location which was modified or destroyed to build the mosque. A verdict by the Allahabad High Court divided the land into three among the stakeholders. An appeal is currently under review at the Supreme Court over the future of the site.

Religious violence in Ayodhya over the issue has been continuing since the 1850s with Hindu groups demanding the establishment of a temple at the site. In the past few years, there have been no significant incidents of violence reported on the anniversary of the demolition of Babri Masjid. However, heavy security is deployed at the site and in various cities of India with significant Muslim population, so as to prevent outbreak of any kind of unrest. In the past, on July 5th 2005, the heavily guarded Babri Masjid complex was attacked by armed terrorists believed to be from the Lashkar-e-Taiba.

In 2015, there have been multiple instances of Churches being damaged, allegedly by Hindu groups. With the BJP government at the centre, which is believed to be pro-Hinduism, fringe groups have attempted to make their presence felt with minor incidents of stone-pelting and vandalism. The Babri Masjid debate is a contentious issue and even minor incidents around anniversary of the demolition of the mosque have the potential to lead to widespread violence. Heavy security deployment is expected in Uttar Pradesh, Delhi, Mumbai, Hyderabad and other cities.

December 6th – Increased security likely, ahead of the 23rd anniversary of Babri Masjid demolition

Jammu & Kashmir – Infiltration attempts by militant groups along international border expected to

increase before the onset of winter in the state

As per the Border Security Force (BSF) who man the security of the international border with Pakistan, there have been desperate and daring bids by militants to infiltrate the Indian border in Kashmir and such attempts have seen a considerable jump this year. It there had also been a substantial increase in cross border firing along the Western frontier which was largely aimed at pushing the militants inside the country. The number of infiltration attempts stands at 62 so far this year with chances of more attempts before the winter sets in. The figures for last year along the international border, which starts from Akhnoor in Jammu region, stood at 48.

The BSF also expressed concern over the scenario that Islamic State (IS) could help infiltration attempts of other terrorist groups into the state during the coming days. Militants have been repeatedly resorting to infiltrations, frequent stand-off attacks, sniper fire, IED blasts, and border firing to keep the region volatile. These attempts have been successfully foiled by round-the-clock vigil and effective border domination by security forces in spite of heavy losses. Over the last two years, militancy in the state has been on the increase along all parameters. Of most concern is the recent increase in the number of young people from the state being drawn into militancy, amid indications of a fresh wave of religious radicalisation. The changing character of the insurgency warrants an urgent course correction is required in Kashmir to prevent the state from becoming a major hotbed for terrorists, as it was in the past.

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With the approaching winter, visibility is expected to deteriorate across North India. The absence of moisture helps trap pollutants within the atmosphere. The heavy air pollution combined with fog-like conditions results in smog, which is more dangerous than fog in terms of affecting visibility. Delhi already ranks among the most polluted cities in the world, closely followed by Bengaluru (36 per cent), Kolkata (35 per cent) and Mumbai (27 per cent).

Earlier in November, a layer of smog was witnessed in Delhi due to smoke generated from farmers burning crops in Punjab. Although the weather conditions did not affect flight movements at the Indira Gandhi International Airport (IGIA) then, a heavier layer of smog has the potential to disrupt flight operations. As was witnessed in the week gone by, albeit on a small scale, the fog fight of air carriers has already begun, almost a month ahead of usual. There were some flight delays reported at Patna, Delhi, Ranchi and Lucknow airports, due to fog conditions. Meanwhile, anticipating the travel delays due to smog conditions, Indian Railways has already cancelled 30 trains for the months of January and February of 2016; frequency schedule of some 482 other trains has been curtailed.

North India generally experiences fog towards the end of December and all through January, which leads the flight disruptions and cancellations, making air and train travel nightmarish. Road travel is horrendous especially when driving on highways. The incidents of road accidents due to fog conditions increases, especially in the early morning and late night hours. The dip in temperatures, along with the smog-like conditions, reduce the air quality, oscillating between the categories of poor and very poor. Smog is considered to be a harmful mixture of smoke and fog which creates serious health hazards.

North India - Smog-like conditions may result in poor visibility; possible disruption to air, rail and road

traffic movement

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The protests and blockades in the southern plains of Nepal, along the border with India, have continued to intensify, after the new Nepalese Constitution was promulgated in September 2015. The protesters, mostly from the Madhesi and Tharu ethnic minority communities (who traces their origins to India) have accused the key political parties, including the government of the day of disregarding the interests of the Madhesi and Janajati people, as well as that of other marginalised groups in the Terai region. The Nepalese government has accused India of supporting the protesters and implementing, “unofficially”, the blockade of essential goods and supplies into Nepal. Tensions between the two countries, who have been natural allies for decades, has remained high since the protests began. Recently, Nepal government concluded agreements with China and Bangladesh for the supply of fuel into the country, where earlier, India was the sole trading partner for fuel for Nepal.

As a form of protest against India and what it perceives to be a blockade enforced by India, cable operators in Nepal blocked 42 Indian channels, including news media. According to the president of the Nepal Cable Television Association, the black-out will be indefinite. Anti-India sentiment is at an all-time high in the country. Recently, some movie theatres in Kathmandu stopped screening of Indian movies. In the last week of the month, some reports suggested that Maoist protest groups set fire to a vehicle belonging to the Indian embassy in Kathmandu. However, both police and embassy officials refuted the claim. On November 29th, Nepal detained 13 soldiers of the Indian paramilitary force, Sashastra Seema Bal (SSB), which guards the 1,751 km-long open frontier with Nepal. The soldiers were later released.

ŸIndia has also assured Nepal of forcibly removing the blockade soon after the agitating groups vacate the no-man's land along the border. Nepal's authorities are, however, deeply suspicious about India's intent.

ŸChina seems to have favourably responded to Nepal's request to open another six, in addition to the existing two, check posts in order to address the situation.

ŸWith the fuel shortage, most children are told, not only in school by the government but at home as well, that it's “India and Narendra Modi” who are responsible for their not being able to go to school. This led to school children joining anti-India protests last week.

Nepal exists as a buffer state between the two regional giants - India and China - and a Chinese sphere of influence extending in Nepal is damaging for India's strategic interests there. Chinese manoeuvring within Nepal has concerned India in the past too, and India foreign policy would do well to align itself with Nepal's wants and needs to ensure that it remains a neutral territory that geographically separates the two South Asian giants.

The protests in the southern plains of Nepal is likely to continue until the demands of the protesting communities are met or some mutually agreeable solution is arrived at. These protests have also garnered support from the Indian side of the border as many here belong to the same or similar community.

Political tensions between India and Nepal will continue to remain high in December

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Afghanistan

Major public protests in Kabul against the killing of Shia minorities by Islamic State sympathisers Thousands of angry protesters attempted (November 11th) to enter Afghanistan's presidential compound in Kabul, as part of a march over the brutal murders of seven minority Hazaras. The protesters were demanding government action to halt sectarian violence following the be headings of seven ethnic Hazaras (of the minority Shia community) in the previous week, by suspected Islamic State (IS)-linked militants. The killings highlighted the risk of worsening sectarianism in the country, amid daily violence sweeping Afghanistan. The crowd in Kabul – huge by recent standards – shouted slogans including “Death to the Taliban” and “Death to the Islamic State”. The protesters accused the government of President Ashraf Ghani of incompetence in face of the present security situation in the country and called for the resignation of the government.

The protests were led by youth groups who had issued calls to gather on social media. The protests were the biggest show of anger against terrorism in the country and arguably very significant. Since taking office, President Ghani made several attempts to secure a peace deal with the Taliban. However, the protesters, who are seeing the collapse of Ghani's peace bid, want their elected government to not negotiate with the Taliban. The protesters believe that the peace with Taliban will erode the legitimacy of the republic's constitutional institutions, but won't help gain any real peace in return.

Pakistan

Minority community targeted in the country, face social and legal discriminationDeclared non-Muslims in 1974, the minority community of Ahmadis face both legal and social discrimination in Pakistan. The attacks on their properties have increased manifold in the past decade. On November 21st, in Jhelum district in the eastern Punjab province, an angry mob set ablaze a factory owned by an Ahmadi, after one of its employees was accused of desecrating the Koran. The incident took place after the head of security at the factory was arrested, for complaints that he allegedly ordered the burning of Korans. After the arrest hundreds of people assembled near the factory and set it on fire. A day later on Sunday, Muslim protesters attacked and occupied an Ahmadi mosque in a town near Jehlum, as an act of revenge for the factory incident. Army had to be called in, to quell the situation.

Pakistani law has institutionalised the persecution of the minority Ahmadi community. The Islamization of Pakistan, which started during the 1970s, culminated in the 1980s. It was after this period when Ahmadis (also known as Qadianis in Pakistan) were banned from calling themselves Muslim and building their mosques in the country. Their places of worship were shut down or desecrated by hard-line Islamists, with tacit support from the state.

Pakistan has witnessed an unprecedented surge in Islamic extremism and religious fanaticism in the past decade. Islamist groups, including the Taliban, have repeatedly targeted religious minorities in the country to impose their strict Sharia law on people. Blasphemy, or the insult of Prophet Muhammad, is a sensitive topic in Pakistan, where 97 percent of the population is Muslim. Rights activist demand the reforms of the controversial blasphemy laws, which were introduced in the 1980s. Activists believe the laws have little to do with blasphemy and are often used to settle petty disputes and personal vendettas. The number of blasphemy cases in Pakistan has increased manifold in recent years. Pakistan's liberal sections are alarmed by the growing influence of right-wing Islamists in their country and blame the authorities for patronizing them. Rights organizations also point to the legal discrimination against minorities in Pakistan, which is one the major causes of the maltreatment of Pakistani minority groups.



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The government has undertaken efforts for reconciliation with the country's Tamil minorities As part of the government's efforts for long lasting peace and reconciliation in a post Liberation Tigers for Tamil Eelam (LTTE) Sri Lanka, 39 suspects held on charges being ex-LTTE were granted bail on November 11th and 16th; 204 detainees still remain in custody. All these detainees have been held under the Prevention of Terrorism Act promulgated by the previous government. Also, as part of its reconciliation process, the Sri Lankan government has delisted several alleged pro-LTTE Tamil organizations and individuals proscribed last year (16 organisations and 424 individuals), by the previous government. Eight such groups were de-listed according to a gazette notification on November 20th, but the ban on LTTE was retained. Tamil Rehabilitation Organization (TRO), Tamil Coordinating Committee (TCC), World Tamil Movement (WTM), Transnational Government of Tamil Eelam (TGTE), Tamil Eelam Peoples Assembly (TEPA), World Tamil Relief Fund (WTRF) and Headquarters Group (HQ) continue to be listed as terrorist organizations. The new government has launched measures for reconciliation with the Tamil minority. Several confidence building measures such as the release of Tamils-owned lands, lifting of travel restrictions to the North and de-escalating the military presence in the North, have been taken since January. There has been continues demand and protest by Tamil prisoners (even hunger strikes) and political parties for release of prisoners arrested for political objectives. The government has said it is not possible to grant the prisoners a common amnesty but the government is willing to consider the possibility of granting them bail, as was done in the case of the 39 detainees. However, the government faces opposition from the Sinhala-majority for agreeing to release those held for alleged terrorist activities.

Sri Lanka



Nepal

Essential commodities in short supply as protests in Terai region continueSupplies of everyday goods into the country continue to remain disrupted by protests and blockades in the country's Terai region (southern plains), which border India. The Terai belt has been witnessing a general strike for over 100 days and a border blockade for last 60 days. Nepal imports about 60 per cent of its medicines from India. And as a result of the shortage of medicines, supplies and fuel, hospitals have started to cut services. According to the Nepal Chemists and Druggists Association about 350 cargo trucks carrying medicine being transported from India have been stranded at key border crossings, while essential and life-saving drugs are being airlifted to Kathmandu. In a recent incident, immediately after protesters declared that trucks carrying medicines would be allowed to cross into Nepal, a gasoline bomb was thrown at a cargo truck carrying $20,000 worth of medicines in Birgunj; Birgunj is one of the major border crossings where over 60 per cent of foreign goods, including Indian, enters Nepal. Nearly 95 per cent of Nepal's population is affected by the shortages as most of the medicines and fuel is currently imported from India. Households and businesses are also affected due to the shortage of gas. The survivors of the April earthquake are also badly affected as many of them are still living in relief camps, even as winter has arrived in the country.

In order to compensate for the fuel shortage from its traditional supplier, India, in the last month, the Nepal government signed an agreement between Nepal Oil Corp and the Chinese firm, National United Oil Corp (PetroChina). As part of this agreement, China will supply 1000 tons of fuel to Nepal, as a grant. The government has also signed a deal with Bangladesh to supply Aviation Turbine Fuel to the landlocked country. As the protests show no signs of abating, and violence at the protest spots continues, an end to the blockade in the immediate future looks unlikely. Fuel supplies coming in from China might compensate for the shortage due to blockade with India. However, scarcity of other essential commodities will remain affected unless the government moves to swiftly resolve the demands of the protesters, or puts in place long-lasting alternate arrangements.

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Maldives

Political unrest continues; government declares emergency and subsequently withdraws itA state of emergency was declared on November 4th in Maldives, to aid security forces after what the government stated was a plot to assassinate President Abdulla Yameen. The President narrowly escaped injury when a blast struck his boat in September. The declaration was widely condemned for suspending basic citizens' rights and for giving the military and the police the power to search and arrest almost at will. Members of the country's military patrolled the streets while it was in effect. Under the emergency regulations, police officers were allowed to enter and search homes without a warrant, and the rights to assemble peacefully and travel between the many islands of the archipelago nation were suspended. The President revoked the state of emergency after less than a week, following widespread international condemnation and concerns about its impact on the country's crucial tourism industry.

The emergency came two days before a planned protest by the country's main opposition, the Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP). Later, after the emergency was lifted, the party organised a protest on November 27th demanding the release from jail of former President Mohamed Nasheed, ex-Defense Minister Mohamed Nazim and opposition leader Sheikh Imran Abdulla, as well as the end of court actions against 1,700 political activists. The police used tear gas and pepper spray and arrested more than a dozen demonstrators. The party leaders stated the police had initially agreed to allow a three-day protest as long as sound systems were not used after midnight. However, they withdrew their permission after the government interfered.

The Maldives, known for luxury island resorts and beaches, has had a difficult transition to democracy since holding its first multiparty election in 2008, which ended 30 years of autocratic rule. The Maldives' judiciary, police and bureaucracy are deemed highly politicized and are accused of being used to crack down on the opposition. Even after lifting of the emergency, President Yameen has continued with his dictatorial political moves. Just a day after lifting emergency, the Maldives Parliament sacked the chief prosecutor Muhthaz Muhsin without disclosing the allegations against him. Muhsin is the third top government official sacked since July by the Parliament, which is controlled by Yameen. Vice President Ahmed Adeeb and his predecessor, Mohamed Jameel, were similarly removed. Earlier this year, President Yameen has also jailed his main opposition leader, former President Nasheed, on terrorism charges.



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Bangladesh

Rapid spread of extremist groups gives rise to fears of security and spread of radicalization in the countryBangladesh police recently arrested a suspected Islamist for allegedly sending death threats to prominent secular academics. Threats were sent to noted academics and writers in the name of the Islamic State (IS) group and local banned outfit Ansarullah Bangla Team (ABT). Tensions are running high in Bangladesh after a series of killings of secular bloggers and a publisher as well as the murders of two foreigners. Secular writers, academics and bloggers have received death threats in the wake of the killings, while some have fled overseas fearing for their lives. The country has also witnessed two attacks on the minority Shia community, in last one month. Police have stepped up a search for those behind the threats as well as security of those targeted after a hit list was published on the Internet of 153 names.

The Islamic State has staked claim for the attacks on foreigners and Shias in the country; ABT, a local arm of Al Qaeda, has claimed responsibility for the attack on secular writers and publisher. However, the government, however, stated that IS has no presence in Bangladesh and instead accuses the opposition of trying to destabilise the country. The militant group recently claimed its presence in South Asia, particularly in Bangladesh. Bangladeshi authorities have reportedly stepped up their efforts to combat IS and its affiliates in the country. In a recent article in its online publication 'Dabiq', the terrorist group announced its plans for fresh attacks in Bangladesh.

Added to the security threat from terrorist group is the political instability in the country. The ongoing trails of some leaders of Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI) under trail for war crimes during the 1971 Bangladesh War of Independence has given rise to political and security tensions in the country. The hanging of two leaders, one of BNP and other of JeI on November 22nd led to demonstrations in the country.

Religious extremism emerged and took root under political governments as both the parties in power and in the opposition used the religion card to win support of the Islamists. Terrorism thrived during the BNP-JeI rule in 2001-06. When the now banned militant outfits Jamaat Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB) and Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami (HuJI) emerged as a serious threat, the BNP-JeI government at first denied their existence, but was eventually compelled to arrest some top militant leaders.

The puritanical version of an intolerant Islam is spreading in Bangladesh as extremist groups infiltrate society, successfully changing the way many dress, practice their faith, and interact with non-Muslims and secular Bangladeshis. Systemic intolerance and human rights abuses against all minorities, as well as secular Muslims are on the rise.



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Spotlight - Myanmar


Following its landslide victory in the 2015 General Elections, the National League for Democracy (NLD), is exploring avenue to make its leader Aung San Suu Kyi as the country's next president. Currently, Suu Kyi is constitutionally barred from the presidency under article 59(f) of the constitution because of the British citizenship of her late husband and two sons. According to reports, the article barring her from presidency could be temporarily suspended or repealed. At present, Suu Kyi continues as the Chairman of the NLD, overseeing its plans to bring about significant change in the functioning of the government machinery in the country.

The recently concluded general elections were the first free and fair elections in the country after a period of 25 years. Then too Aung San Suu Kyi had secured a clear majority but the military establishment refused to accept the results and continued to rule the country. Even now, the military retains 25 per cent of the parliamentary seats and control over key government ministries. It is expected that with a democratic political party at the helm, the promised reforms will be implemented at a faster pace. Many problem areas of the economy have not yet undergone significant changes (such as land reforms, and judicial system reform). As a result, the country still needs to make major adjustments to its internal organisational structures and policies before the western powers can consider it a true democracy, which is open to business for western firms without any sanctions.

Ceasefire signatories agree to code of conductThe eight armed ethnic groups which are signatories of the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) (signed in October 2015) and the Tatmadaw, Myanmar's armed forces, have reached an agreement for a code of conduct at their second Joint Implementation Coordination Meeting. The meeting was held between party representatives in Nay Pyi Taw, the country's capital. The meeting was chaired on the government's side by Vice President Sai Mauk Kham, and on the ethnic armed group side by Pado Kwe Htoo Win, secretary of the Karen National Union (KNU). At the meeting, the two sides discussed the future of the country's peace process and progress made since the previous meeting in October.

The committee comprises 26 representatives, ten each from the government and the signatories of the NCA, and six civilian leaders, including prominent pro -democracy leader Ko Ko Gyi. According to a local media report, negotiations are on track to see the beginning of political dialogue in January 2016. Although the agreement has brought peace in other parts of the country, the Tatmadaw continues to fight with the Kachin Independence Army and the Shan State Army, in separate offensives in the north of the country.

Myanmar in transition to a more transparent democracy with victory of National League of Democracy in

general elections

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Home to nearly one third of the world's population, and two belligerent nuclear powered states with an increasing trust deficit, South Asia is a complex dynamic region with immense potential for growth but beset with a high degree of geopolitical fragility. The eight countries which make up the region are all relatively newly independent countries with a shared colonial legacy. Democratic roots in most of them except India, are not deep, and most have had experience of military coups or have military calling the shots to a varying degree. The three main protagonists India, Pakistan and Bangladesh have a large restive Muslim population which is perceived by some as a fault line and fertile recruitment ground for radicals of all hues.

Afghanistan and Myanmar, and to an extent Iran, which are considered de facto part of the South Asian geographical narrative also bring on board their security baggage to the cauldron of instability, challenges and opportunities which the region represents. Whilst terrorism continues to be the dominant concern of most nations; in the coming years, nontraditional security challenges will start playing an increasing role in the security architecture of the area. Poor and weak governance, with huge and widening income disparities in a restive educated and social media savvy young population, is a recipe for instability. Pressure on scarce resources like water and energy on the galloping numbers exacerbate the situation. The population dividend, unless harnessed adroitly would soon become a liability. Unless tackled coherently, the momentum of non-traditional threats mentioned above may become endemic and threaten the social fabric of some nations. In fact, some non-traditional security threats have already transformed to become traditional threats, with the dividing line between them blurring too rapidly for comfort.

South Asian Security Dynamics

Expert Speak


- Lt Gen Sudhir Sharma (retd)

AFGHANISTAN

PAKISTAN

INDIA

MALDIVES

NEPAL

BANGLADESH

BHUTAN

MYANMAR

SRI LANKA

Population: 40% of Asia’s and 25% of world’s population (India,

Bangladesh and Pakistan comprise of 92.2% of South

Asia’s population)

Military Power (Standing Army)

Pakistan - 612,000, India - 1,500,000,

Bangladesh - 156,000

Muslim Population: 500 million

(1.5 billion in Asia by 2050)

Growth Rate: 7.5 %

Area: 5.1 million sq km (12% of Asia)

GDP: 2.9 trillion nominal

and 9.9 trillion PPP

NuclearWarheads: 250

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Whilst the direct threat of IS would be limited in the region due counter balance of the Taliban in Afghanistan and Iran to the west, the impact of lone wolf attacks by IS sympathizers is a probability and would be difficult to control or mitigate. Pakistan would continue to be a safe haven for terrorists of many shades, and would in all probability align ideologically with a Taliban dominated Afghanistan post the full American withdrawal. India-Pakistan relations are unlikely to mend anytime soon and a tense standoff casting its shadow on the region would continue. Bangladesh despite its inherent problems is attempting to reduce the influence of extremists; a trend that is welcome and bodes well despite the quagmire it finds itself in presently. Nepal is passing through a difficult transitory phase to full-fledged democracy, and is under pressure to come under the influence of China due to economic incentives; but this relationship may not stand the test of time due to differences in cultural orientation. Nepal will in all probability remain symbiotically attached to India and to South Asia, economically and emotionally.

US, Russia and China have huge stake in the region, and the oceans which the South Asian land mass straddles, besides the Malacca Straits. China has invested heavily in the Gwadar port for an access to the sea, and has strategic interests and ports in Sri Lanka and Myanmar. USA while pivoting to West Asia, is in the process of building deep strategic and economic ties with a resurgent India, in an attempt to check China and Russia on the geo-strategic chess board of South Asia.

The region is evolving rapidly and has myriad security challenges, both traditional and nontraditional. Its leadership has shown reasonable maturity and sagacity, and this bodes well for the region in general. However the overall security scenario is fragile and needs careful monitoring, and putting in place robust systems to manage emerging threats in the coming years.

Expert Speak


Lt Gen Sudhir Sharma (retd), Chairman, MitKat Advisory Services: He has handled challenging leadership, staff, Instructional and diplomatic assignments, including command of the largest operational force in the world. He is acknowledged thought leader and expert on defence, homeland, and corporate security. He has lead and modernised the logistics of 1.3 million-strong Indian Army, and was India’s Defence Attache in London. He advises diplomatic and homeland security (HLS) think-tanks, and is an author of repute. He is a distinguished speaker and a panelist in many international forums.

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Naxal Tracker - December

2015


November events and incidents

Naxals or Maoists are militant far-left radical Communist groups operating in India. Inspired by the doctrines of Mao Zedong, they work to overthrow the government and upper classes by violence. They are considered as a terrorist organization under the Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act of India (1967).

Naxalites activities have spread to about 82 districts across 10 states, though some are very moderately affected. Maoist incidents have accounted for almost 60 per cent of terrorism-related violence in India over the last decade. These include intimidation, killings of innocent civilians, reprisal killings, abductions and kidnappings, IED blasts and the destruction of government and private property. In many of the areas of their influence, the Maoists have been collecting taxes and dispensing instant and brutal justice through kangaroo courts.

ŸNovember 2nd - Maharashtra: Two villagers killed by CPI-M rebels on the suspicion of being 'Police informers' in Gadchiroli district.

ŸNovember 3rd - Chhattisgarh: Three CPI-M cadres killed by security personnel in Sukma District.

ŸNovember 4th - Chhattisgarh: Two IEDs planted allegedly by CPI-Maoist cadres recovered from near a Police Station in Sukma district.

ŸNovember 6th - Telangana: Six political party leaders abducted by maoist rebels from Khammam district.

ŸNovember 11th - Odisha: Maoist rebel killed by security forces near Rourkela in Sundargarh district.

ŸNovember 13th - Chhattisgarh: Four CPI-Maoist cadres, including a local 'intelligence chief' killed in an encounter in Bijapur district.

ŸNovember 13th - Jharkhand: CPI-Maoist cadres set ablaze two trucks at Kolbhanga in West Singhbhum District during panchayat elections.

ŸNovember 15th - Odisha: Three villagers killed in cross-fire during an encounter between rebels and secrity personnel in Kalahandi distirct.

ŸNovember 20th - Odisha: Bandh called by Maoists affects life in Kalahandi district.

ŸNovember 25th - Chhattisgarh: One rebel killed in encounter with security personnel in Bijapur district.

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MitKat Recommendations: Organisations operating in Maoist infested areas must carry out active liaison for intelligence inputs and harden their security adequately to safeguard their people, assets and operations. Professional advice should be sought from security consultants with a successful track record of operating in dangerous and challenging territories.

Naxal Tracker - December

2015


Naxal Trends:

Movement towards Andhra Pradesh and Telangana to re-establish bases there Some major Maoist activities, that affected general life, were witnessed in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana in November. A movement of tribals led by the Maoists against bauxite mining in Visakhapatnam area of Andhra Pradesh, gained traction this month with a bandh called in the district on November 6th. The bandh was also supported by opposition parties in the state, with transport services commercial operations affected.

This month, Maoists abducted six leaders of Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS), Telangana's ruling political party, from Bhadrachalam division in Khammam district of Telangana. The leaders were later released without harm. Last month, in Andhra Pradesh three local leaders of Telugu Desam Party (TDP) were allegedly held captive by Maoists in Visakhapatnam. They were released after a few days. These incidents appear to be a way for the Maoist rebels to make themselves relevant with the local community in the region again.

Over 45 Maoist-related incidents, including killings and exchange of fire, have been reported since January in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana. It started with stray incidents of pamphlets surfacing in some villages, warning the locals not to be informers, threatening politicians and landlords and warning the authorities of severe action if they did not halt combing operations.

As it appeared that Maoist activities in the region were permanently on a wane, a spurt in activity was seen in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana in November. In 2006, the erstwhile Andhra Pradesh state was said to be free of any major Maoist presence. Following the bifurcation, there were fears that the rebels would try to take advantage of the division and an uncoordinated response from the security forces of the two states to regroup in the area. In the past, there were no incidents of significance that suggested a comeback by the Maoists in the region, but steadily, an increasing number of instances are being seen. These, when viewed in isolation may not suggest much, but together, they give a clear picture of Maoist plans to increase their dominance in the region.

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Management


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Documents

INDIA MONTHLY RISK FORECAST - MitKat Advisory of Democracy in general elections ŸSri Lanka: The government has undertaken efforts for reconciliation with the country's Tamil minorities