India Market Report - Asia Securities Forum · 31/08/2014 · The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has estimated India's economic growth to be 5.6 percent in 2014-15. India's growth

Association of National Exchanges Members of India

Association of National Exchanges Members of India 1

India Market Report

Asia Securities Forum

19th Annual General Meeting

5 -7 November 2014, Bangkok

India: About ANMI

ANMI was formed in year 1996.

It is a pan India body comprising of the trading members of NSE, BSE and MCX-SX spread across the country.

The basic objective of the Association is to work for the development of the Capital Market, safeguard the overall interest of investors and its members at large.

ANMI is an effective voice of its members, which communicates the industry standpoint on issues affecting Capital Markets.


India - GDP GROWTH

India is among the fastest growing countries of the world.

FY 15 GDP is expected to

be 5.5%


Source: RBI

3

India: Economic Performance


Source: IMF

IMF World Economic Outlook

Projections

2014-15 2015-16

World Output 3.3 3.8

United States 2.2 3.1

Euro Area 0.8 1.3

United Kingdom 3.2 2.7

Russia 0.2 0.5

China 7.4 7.1

India 5.6 6.4

Japan 0.9 0.8

ASEAN-5 4.7 5.4

Lat. America and Caribbean 1.3 2.2

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has estimated India's economic growth to be 5.6 percent in 2014-15.

India's growth forecast for 2015-16 is 6.4 percent by IMF.

In its latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) released, the IMF said that world economic growth rate would be 3.3 percent in 2014-15 and 3.8 percent in 2015 -16.

4

India: Economic Performance

Inflation- Cooling off

Healthy Savings Rate

Source: RBI

Improving CAD

Particulars (as % of GDP) FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15

Projected

Gross Domestic Saving 32.0% 33.7% 33.7% 31.3% 30.1% 30.4% 30.7%

CAD 2.3% 2.8% 2.7% 4.2% 4.8% 1.7 2.0%


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WPI

WPI

(%)

0

2

4

6

8

10

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CPI

CPI

(%)

5

India: Foreign Exchange Reserves

Source : RBI Association of National Exchanges Members of India

Over a period of

time India has

built healthy

Forex Reserves.

6

Till 12 Sep 14

43 55

76

113

142 152

199 213

248

275

310 312

286

303 315

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

FY 01 FY 02 FY 03 FY 04 FY 05 FY 06 FY 07 FY 08 FY 09 FY 10 FY 11 FY 12 FY 13 FY 14 FY 15

Foreign Exchange Reserves (USD Billion)

India: Business Growth in Capital Market

# indicates as on August 31, 2014. * Figures of USE Subsidiary of BSE


Source: SEBI

Turn

ove

r (R

s. T

rilli

on

)

7

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

CM FO CD CM FO CD* CM FO CD

NSE BSE MCX SX

2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13

2013-14

2014-15#

India: Business Growth in Capital Market


Cash Segment

Currency Derivatives

Equity Derivatives Segment

Source: SEBI, BSE, NSE, MCX-SX (# Till Sept 2014)

Turn

ove

r (R

s. T

rilli

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)

Turn

ove

r (R

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)

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ove

r (R

s. T

rilli

on

)

8

0

10

20

30

40

50

2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 #

BSE

NSE

MCX - SX

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 #

MCX -SX

NSE

BSE

0

100

200

300

400

500

2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 #

NSE FO

BSE FO

Business Growth in Capital Market

• Annualized Business volume in 2014-15 of all exchanges in cash segment as against 33.4 trillion rupees in 2013-14 expected to be 52.11 trillion rupees i.e almost 56% increase

• In equity derivative segment as against 475.76 trillion rupees it is expected to be 652.13 trillion rupees i.e. almost 37% increase in 2014-15.

9

India: Capital Market-Volume Ranking

Rank by Number of Trades in Equity Shares (Jan-Sept 2014)

Sr. No. Exchange No. of transactions

1 National Stock Exchange India 1298293.9

2 NASDAQ OMX 1230319.5

3 NYSE 1091855.3

4 Shenzhen SE 1135296.8

5 Shanghai SE 718684.0

6 Korea Exchange 812411.3

7 Japan Exchange Group – Tokyo 452747.5

8 Bombay Stock Exchange 299961.6

9 TMX Group 188486.3

10 BM&FBOVESPA 155125.7

Electronic Order Book Trades Source: WFE Association of National Exchanges Members of India 10

India: Volume Growth in Capital Market


Number of Trades in Equity Shares

Electronic Order Book Trades Source: WFE

Rs.

In T

ho

usa

nd

s

11

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1400000

1600000

1800000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Equity Volume at NSE Till Sept 2014

India: FII/FPI Inflows

# indicates as on August 31, 2014.


Source: SEBI

12

-200000

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

Gross Purchase(` Rs.crore)

Gross Sales(` Rs.crore)

Net Investment(`Rs. crore)

Net Investment(US $ mn.)

Cumulative NetInvestment(US $ mn.)

India: FII/FPI Inflows R

s. B

illio

n

Source : SEBI


-500

0

500

1000

1500

2000

FY 02 FY 03 FY 04 FY 05 FY 06 FY 07 FY 08 FY 09 FY 10 FY 11 FY 12 FY 13 FY 14

Equity Debt

FII Inflows- Capital Market

• In 2013-14 FII inflow was 8.86 billion USD

• In 2014-15, upto Aug 14 it has already crossed 20.623 billion USD

• It is expected to cross 2012-13 level of 31 billion USD

14

Indian Stock Exchanges offer Cash & Derivatives in Multiple Asset Classes…

Asset

Classes Equity

Derivatives

Capital Markets

Other Markets

Other Derivatives

Stock Futures

Stock Options

Index Futures

Index Options

Currency Futures and Options Interest Rate Futures

SLBS

Debt Market

MFSS

Equities, Debt, ETFs,

Mutual Funds

IPO


Investor Protection: India vs. other EMs

Parameters India China Brazil Russian

Federation

Protecting Investors (Rank) 34 98 80 115

Extent of Disclosure Index (0-10) 7 10 5 6

Extent of Director Liability Index (0-10) 4 1 8 2

Ease of Shareholder suits index (0-10) 8 4 3 6

Strength of Investor Protection Index (0-10) 6.3 5 5.3 4.7


Source: World Bank

16

Infrastructural Development – Reviving the Special Economic Zone (SEZ), Streamlining the Public Private Partnership (PPP) models and creating Infrastructural Investment Trusts .

• Work for the ambitious Diamond Quadrilateral rail network — connecting major metros across the country.

Ambitious financial inclusion scheme - Pradhan Mantri Jan Dhan Yojana – Opening of bank accounts of left out people.; launched with 15 million bank accounts opened in 1 day. First phase target of 75 million accounts by Jan 2015.

Energy Security –Inked MoU between Ministry of New & Renewable Energy of India and the Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC) in the field of new and renewable energy.

India: Recent GOI Economic Policy Announcements


Coal Sector – Government may allow commercial use of mines in the future.

Oil & Gas Reforms

• Deregulated price of diesel.

• Announced a new price for domestically-produced natural gas.

Bilateral Relationships – Japan’s commitment to invest $35 billion in India. Special Management Team initiated under PMO to facilitate business from Japan.

• Relationship building with Asian nations such as Bhutan, Nepal and China ($20 bn).

India: Recent GOI Economic Policy Announcements


Generating positive sentiment.

Boost for Commercial, Trading and Industrial activities.

Building Investor Confidence, both Domestic and Foreign.

Improve sentiments in the Capital Market including Investors.

Return of Retail Investors in the Capital Market.

Increase in Revenue Growth.

Increased Employment generation.

Meeting a GDP Growth target of about 5.5% for 2014-15.

Anticipated Impact of Reforms on the Indian Economy


Recent Development


Development Capital: The member countries will also set up a USD100 billion currency reserves pool to help countries forestall short-term liquidity pressures.

New BRICS Bank:

The New Development Bank (NDB), formerly referred to as the BRICS Development Bank, is a proposed multilateral development bank operated by the BRICS states (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) as an alternative to the existing World Bank and International Monetary Fund.

The Bank will have a rotating chair and its first President will come from India for the first six years.

Source: BRICS

20

BRICS SUMMIT 2014

SWOT ANALYSIS

STRENGHTHS • Rapid Growth in IT , BPO Sectors bringing

huge foreign exchange • Vibrant Capital Markets

• Committed Government – Full majority • RBI controlling inflation • Export oriented inflows

WEAKNESS

•Inflation concern

• Trade deficit issue

•Dependency on Unpredictable

Monsoons

OPPORTUNITIES • Scope of entry – Private Firms in various

Sectors • Direct Inflow of FDI in various sectors

• FII

THREATS • Global Economy Recession •Rise of Crude oil prices • High Fiscal deficit


22

Presented by

Vijay Kumar Singhania – Past President, Director & Chairman International Affairs committee ANMI

Email: [email protected] Web: www.anmi.in


mailto:[email protected]

http://www.anmi.in/

Documents

India Market Report - Asia Securities Forum · 31/08/2014 · The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has estimated India's economic growth to be 5.6 percent in 2014-15. India's growth